stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
Titoli di Stato Italia Trading Titoli di Stato III° (Gennaio 2010 - Dicembre 2011) (58 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NNGNews
- Data di Inizio
-
- Tags
- btp off-the-run
- Stato
stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
grafici btp e indici americani e cambio eur/usd
stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
EURO MTS.indici di performance
Dati al:05-08-2010
Average
-------------------------
Indice Valore Duration Coupon Maturity Yield
---------------------------------------------------------------
EMTX 1-3 Y 155,65 1,94 4,39 2,03 1,70
EMTX 3-5 Y 167,88 3,82 4,00 4,14 2,24
EMTX 5-7 Y 175,85 5,44 3,77 6,07 2,78
EMTX 7-10 Y 178,03 7,14 4,28 8,38 3,30
EMTX 10-15 Y 181,26 9,37 4,80 12,15 3,96
EMTX +15 Y 192,48 14,52 5,12 23,61 3,96
EMTX Global 171,45 6,47 4,38 8,67 3,33
EMTXi 184,11 8,68 2,19 10,26 1,63
EMTX 15-25 Y 192,70 12,93 5,59 19,90 3,93
EMTX +25 Y 190,89 17,21 4,33 29,89 4,00
***************************************************************
* EMTX : EuroMTS Governement bond index
* EMTXi: EuroMTS Inflation linked index
***************************************************************
Dati al:05-08-2010
Average
-------------------------
Indice Valore Duration Coupon Maturity Yield
---------------------------------------------------------------
EMTX 1-3 Y 155,65 1,94 4,39 2,03 1,70
EMTX 3-5 Y 167,88 3,82 4,00 4,14 2,24
EMTX 5-7 Y 175,85 5,44 3,77 6,07 2,78
EMTX 7-10 Y 178,03 7,14 4,28 8,38 3,30
EMTX 10-15 Y 181,26 9,37 4,80 12,15 3,96
EMTX +15 Y 192,48 14,52 5,12 23,61 3,96
EMTX Global 171,45 6,47 4,38 8,67 3,33
EMTXi 184,11 8,68 2,19 10,26 1,63
EMTX 15-25 Y 192,70 12,93 5,59 19,90 3,93
EMTX +25 Y 190,89 17,21 4,33 29,89 4,00
***************************************************************
* EMTX : EuroMTS Governement bond index
* EMTXi: EuroMTS Inflation linked index
***************************************************************
spx
TDSfriends ..da una vita
buona strategia.
Grande Stefano, sempre GRAZIE per le tue notizie che aiutano molto.
stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
stefanofabb
GAIN/Welcome
btp 01/02/2037;4%
tommy271
Forumer storico
FOCUS: Italy Set For Growth As It Stays Out Of Spotlight
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi isn't having much luck avoiding the headlines, but Italy's economy and public finances managed to stay out of the spotlight as Europe's sovereign debt crisis deteriorated this spring.
That's no minor accomplishment. Italy's public debt stood at 116% of gross domestic product in 2009, topping even Greece. For years, Italy was described as the sick man of Europe and the potential weakest link in the euro zone.
And the recession hit Italy particularly hard, with GDP contracting by 5.1% in 2009 after a 1.3% contraction in 2008. Overall, euro-zone GDP shrank by 4% in 2009 after growing by just 0.5% in 2008.
But while other so-called peripheral euro-zone countries -- Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece -- face significant economic pain as they struggle to bring down deficits and put public finances in order, Italy appears set for moderate near-term growth.
The premium demanded by investors to hold Italian government debt over German government bonds rose during the crisis, but didn't explode as it did in the case of Greece and other southern euro-zone countries. The cost of insuring Italian government debt against default also saw a less dramatic rise.
Italy is the euro zone's third largest economy, accounting for roughly 17% of GDP. And therefore fiscal instability in Italy would have fanned the flames of a crisis that just a few months ago was raising questions about whether the euro would survive.
On Friday, Italy is expected to report GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, expanding by 1.2% compared to the second quarter of 2009. That would follow 0.4% quarterly growth in the first quarter.
WEATHERING THE RECESSION
Italy's ability to weather the recession without being sucked into the sovereign debt crisis is due in part to a "very prudent" approach to public finances, said Davide Stroppa, global economist at UniCredit Bank in Milan.
Stimulus measures introduced during the crisis amounted to around only 0.2% to 0.3% of GDP, keeping a lid on Italy's budget deficit.
The Italian government recently approved a controversial 25 billion euro ($33 billion) round of measures over the next two years in an effort to bring the budget deficit below the European Union limit of 3% by 2012 from 5.3% last year.
Still, Rome isn't under heavy pressure to match the painful austerity measures undertaken by Greece and other southern European peers, said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics.
Italy was also aided by its relatively low household and business debt. While household liabilities have risen, they remain among the lowest in the G7 as a proportion of disposable income, May noted.
Much of Italian government debt is held by Italians, leaving the country's external financial position less vulnerable to a potential sell-off led by international investors. In 2009, around 45% of Italian government debt was held abroad, compared to 78% in Portugal and Greece.
Meanwhile, the potential for political turmoil is on the rise. Berlusconi's center-right coalition defeated a motion in the lower house of parliament to dismiss a minister under criminal investigation. A defeat would have raised questions about Berlusconi's ability to govern until the next general election in 2013.
The government's support in the lower house has been called into question after a split between Berlusconi and his one-time ally Gianfranco Fini.
While the prime minister could face more tests in the fall, economists say such concerns so far have caused little concern in financial markets.
While political uncertainty is unwelcome, "it's less of an issue for Italy than it might be for Greece or Spain were we to see a similar thing happening there," May said. "That's because Italy isn't under huge pressure to dramatically reduce its budget deficit."
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET
So far, so good. But that doesn't mean Italy is completely out of the woods.
In a July research note, May warned that slow growth and the massive size of its debt still mark out Italy's public finances as a "potential time bomb waiting to explode."
"Indeed, we think the size of the government's debts will eventually prompt the markets to turn their sights on Italy and a default is a distinct possibility," he wrote.
It may also take a decade or more of stagnant or falling wages to fully restore the competitiveness the Italian economy has lost since joining the euro, he said.
Stroppa expects the Italian economy to see moderate growth in the near term, but says the key challenge for policy makers is to boost the economy's longer-term growth prospects by changing labor-market rules and other regulatory hurdles.
"The main challenge is to generate a higher path of growth," he said. "That's because every (public finance) ratio is expressed in term of GDP, so if you have a permanently higher GDP profile, that means you are able to achieve a more sustainable path of public finances going forward," Stroppa said.
He sees headwinds building in the short term. Many Italian companies remain highly leveraged. And the end of a government incentive program will leave prospects for investment relatively subdued, Stroppa said.
While households aren't strapped with debt, worries about the labor market and other concerns will make it difficult to boost consumption.
Italy's manufacturing sector has enjoyed a strong export-led recovery, but signs are emerging that demand from abroad has started to peak, Stroppa noted.
(The Wall Street Journal)
***
Dicono di noi ...
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi isn't having much luck avoiding the headlines, but Italy's economy and public finances managed to stay out of the spotlight as Europe's sovereign debt crisis deteriorated this spring.
That's no minor accomplishment. Italy's public debt stood at 116% of gross domestic product in 2009, topping even Greece. For years, Italy was described as the sick man of Europe and the potential weakest link in the euro zone.
And the recession hit Italy particularly hard, with GDP contracting by 5.1% in 2009 after a 1.3% contraction in 2008. Overall, euro-zone GDP shrank by 4% in 2009 after growing by just 0.5% in 2008.
But while other so-called peripheral euro-zone countries -- Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece -- face significant economic pain as they struggle to bring down deficits and put public finances in order, Italy appears set for moderate near-term growth.
The premium demanded by investors to hold Italian government debt over German government bonds rose during the crisis, but didn't explode as it did in the case of Greece and other southern euro-zone countries. The cost of insuring Italian government debt against default also saw a less dramatic rise.
Italy is the euro zone's third largest economy, accounting for roughly 17% of GDP. And therefore fiscal instability in Italy would have fanned the flames of a crisis that just a few months ago was raising questions about whether the euro would survive.
On Friday, Italy is expected to report GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, expanding by 1.2% compared to the second quarter of 2009. That would follow 0.4% quarterly growth in the first quarter.
WEATHERING THE RECESSION
Italy's ability to weather the recession without being sucked into the sovereign debt crisis is due in part to a "very prudent" approach to public finances, said Davide Stroppa, global economist at UniCredit Bank in Milan.
Stimulus measures introduced during the crisis amounted to around only 0.2% to 0.3% of GDP, keeping a lid on Italy's budget deficit.
The Italian government recently approved a controversial 25 billion euro ($33 billion) round of measures over the next two years in an effort to bring the budget deficit below the European Union limit of 3% by 2012 from 5.3% last year.
Still, Rome isn't under heavy pressure to match the painful austerity measures undertaken by Greece and other southern European peers, said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics.
Italy was also aided by its relatively low household and business debt. While household liabilities have risen, they remain among the lowest in the G7 as a proportion of disposable income, May noted.
Much of Italian government debt is held by Italians, leaving the country's external financial position less vulnerable to a potential sell-off led by international investors. In 2009, around 45% of Italian government debt was held abroad, compared to 78% in Portugal and Greece.
Meanwhile, the potential for political turmoil is on the rise. Berlusconi's center-right coalition defeated a motion in the lower house of parliament to dismiss a minister under criminal investigation. A defeat would have raised questions about Berlusconi's ability to govern until the next general election in 2013.
The government's support in the lower house has been called into question after a split between Berlusconi and his one-time ally Gianfranco Fini.
While the prime minister could face more tests in the fall, economists say such concerns so far have caused little concern in financial markets.
While political uncertainty is unwelcome, "it's less of an issue for Italy than it might be for Greece or Spain were we to see a similar thing happening there," May said. "That's because Italy isn't under huge pressure to dramatically reduce its budget deficit."
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET
So far, so good. But that doesn't mean Italy is completely out of the woods.
In a July research note, May warned that slow growth and the massive size of its debt still mark out Italy's public finances as a "potential time bomb waiting to explode."
"Indeed, we think the size of the government's debts will eventually prompt the markets to turn their sights on Italy and a default is a distinct possibility," he wrote.
It may also take a decade or more of stagnant or falling wages to fully restore the competitiveness the Italian economy has lost since joining the euro, he said.
Stroppa expects the Italian economy to see moderate growth in the near term, but says the key challenge for policy makers is to boost the economy's longer-term growth prospects by changing labor-market rules and other regulatory hurdles.
"The main challenge is to generate a higher path of growth," he said. "That's because every (public finance) ratio is expressed in term of GDP, so if you have a permanently higher GDP profile, that means you are able to achieve a more sustainable path of public finances going forward," Stroppa said.
He sees headwinds building in the short term. Many Italian companies remain highly leveraged. And the end of a government incentive program will leave prospects for investment relatively subdued, Stroppa said.
While households aren't strapped with debt, worries about the labor market and other concerns will make it difficult to boost consumption.
Italy's manufacturing sector has enjoyed a strong export-led recovery, but signs are emerging that demand from abroad has started to peak, Stroppa noted.
(The Wall Street Journal)
***
Dicono di noi ...
IlPorcospino
Forumer storico
Not too bad
Javier
Forumer attivo
Btp 37
Anche oggi la tentazione di alleggerire almeno al 50% il 37 , in carico a 89.79 , è stata forte ... ma, considerato che è da qualche giorno che ha finalmente visto la luce ho lasciato correre, anche e soprattutto perchè al momento non intendo incrementare la già consistene liquidità a resa , quasi, Zero 
, valuterò comunque con attenzione il da farsi nel caso in cui ci si avvicini alle resistenze citate dall' "apprezzatissimo" Stefano .
come si era previsto ora ci sono resistenze a 90,50 e un po più timide a 90,7.io ho venduto a 90,34 di media tutto il malloppo.giornata molto positiva.
Anche oggi la tentazione di alleggerire almeno al 50% il 37 , in carico a 89.79 , è stata forte ... ma, considerato che è da qualche giorno che ha finalmente visto la luce
ho lasciato correre, anche e soprattutto perchè al momento non intendo incrementare la già consistene liquidità a resa , quasi, Zero , valuterò comunque con attenzione il da farsi nel caso in cui ci si avvicini alle resistenze citate dall' "apprezzatissimo" Stefano .- Stato