Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
Magician
Forumer attivo
chi sa darmi un solo motivo di questa valutazione della lira turca?(solo instabilità politica)
Ciao, nelle ultime settimane si sono sviluppati tutta una serie di elementi che vanno a sfavore della lira turca, giusto per elencarne alcuni:
- instabilità politica con le elezioni appena fatte di fatto annullate dalla melina del partito di maggioranza relativa
- un presidente della repubblica che preoccupa per la sua volontà di aumentare ulteriormente il potere a lui assegnato
- una situazione geopolitica instabile con una guerra ai confini contro l'ISIS, ma che di fatto viene sfruttato contro l'opposizione curda su posizioni più estreme
- uno scontro tra Presidente della Repubblica e Banca Centrale, con i tassi bloccati e non mossi a difesa del cambio
- un'economia bloccata con tassi di crescita molto più bassi di quelli degli ultimi anni
.... in poche parole è la situazione perfetta per chi vuole "speculare" al ribasso ed amplificare tutte queste difficoltà.
colo
Forumer attivo
Ti ringrazio della Tua disanima dei fatti, sono veramente tutte pessime notizie
Io che ero e sono alla ricerca disperata di cedole alte in questa occasione penso di esserci rimasto sotto pesantemente se poi sommiamo alle quotazioni del venezuela io per i prossimi anni sono messo molto ma molto male. unica soddisfazione è la grecia il che è tutto dire.Se hai novità e le vuoi condividere Io sono più o meno sempre connesso. ciao Ermanno
Magician
Forumer attivo
Ti ringrazio della Tua disanima dei fatti, sono veramente tutte pessime notizie
Purtroppo le prossime notizie non saranno di segno positivi, fino a quando la situazione non si stabilizzerà, da aggiungere poi il potenziale rialzo dei tassi americani che potrebbe gettare ulteriore benzina sul fuoco.
Personalmente sto monitorando il tutto perchè le BEI espresse in lira turca mi piacciono.... se posso ti suggerirei di non mediare, almeno fino a quando la situazione non cambia.
Quando troverò notizie interessanti le metterò.
In bocca al lupo per tutto.
colo
Forumer attivo
Io ho solo bei ma con esposizione alta (500k TRY) di mediare adesso non se ne parla al limite a scadenza si incassa la forte minus e si rolla su scadenze più lunghe cosi all'infinito. che tristezza.
Magician
Forumer attivo
Turkish consumer confidence fell to its lowest in more than six years in August, official data showed on Aug. 21, bruised by political uncertainty, mounting militant violence in the southeast and the Turkish Lira’s tumble to a record low.
Foreign investor confidence in Turkey’s $870 billion economy has unraveled after Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu this week failed to find a coalition partner to form a government with his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Now Turkey looks set for a snap election in November and investors fear the result will be the same as June’s vote - no clear majority for the AKP, and more uncertainty. The data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK) suggests that, like foreign investors, Turkish consumers are feeling despair.
“When we look at the details of the consumer confidence index we see a broad deterioration,” said Özgür Altuğ, chief economist at BGC Partners in Istanbul.
“Ongoing political uncertainty and terrorist actions probably affected consumer confidence and further decline is likely, in our view.”
The consumer confidence index fell to 62.35 points in August, down from 64.66 in July, the data showed. That was the lowest since March 2009, when it hit 61.55.
The index indicates an optimistic outlook when it is above 100 and a pessimistic outlook when below 100.
Ankara has been caught up in rising violence in the mostly Kurdish southeast and has increased its push against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria.
The Turkish Lira, one of the worst performing emerging market currencies this year, is down 20 percent.
August/21/2015
Foreign investor confidence in Turkey’s $870 billion economy has unraveled after Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu this week failed to find a coalition partner to form a government with his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Now Turkey looks set for a snap election in November and investors fear the result will be the same as June’s vote - no clear majority for the AKP, and more uncertainty. The data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK) suggests that, like foreign investors, Turkish consumers are feeling despair.
“When we look at the details of the consumer confidence index we see a broad deterioration,” said Özgür Altuğ, chief economist at BGC Partners in Istanbul.
“Ongoing political uncertainty and terrorist actions probably affected consumer confidence and further decline is likely, in our view.”
The consumer confidence index fell to 62.35 points in August, down from 64.66 in July, the data showed. That was the lowest since March 2009, when it hit 61.55.
The index indicates an optimistic outlook when it is above 100 and a pessimistic outlook when below 100.
Ankara has been caught up in rising violence in the mostly Kurdish southeast and has increased its push against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria.
The Turkish Lira, one of the worst performing emerging market currencies this year, is down 20 percent.
August/21/2015
Magician
Forumer attivo
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said the rise in the U.S. dollar’s value is reflexive, and not a signal of any structural or permanent economic crisis in Turkey, during a meeting with a group of Ankara correspondents on Aug. 19.
“There is nothing to worry [about] here,” he said, adding very few countries could experience four consecutive elections with such low economic damage as Turkey did.
Davutoğlu noted all post-election processes were quite transparent and in line with the rule of law.
“In this process, there was no interruption in our budget discipline, banking system or monetary policy. We have taken all measures for our lower incomers not to be affected from the rise in inflation rates or the slowdown in the economic growth. Our investments are in progress. There has not so far been any negative trend in Turkey’s rating despite all risks and the fight against terrorism acts,” he said.
Davutoğlu said he held meetings with economy ministers, Central Bank head Erdem Başçı and Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan after a cabinet meeting last week.
“Along with the economy ministers, we made a series of decisions about how to control meat prices and what measures should be taken to overcome the rise in prices. I also held a meeting with Başçı. And I took a quite detailed briefing from Deputy PM Ali Babacan about the latest developments in the world economy,” he said.
Davutoğlu noted there was a general fluctuation affecting many other currencies across the world.
“We have seen reflective reactions in the markets. We cannot talk about any structural and permanent crisis… If I was quite concerned about the parities, I would have made our meeting with the head of the Nationalist Movement Party [MHP], Devlet Bahçeli, on a Friday, when the stock markets are closed, rather than last Monday. As we have complete confidence in the strength of our economy, we can make such meetings anytime,” he said.
The MHP rejected a coalition with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and refused to support a minority government on Aug. 17.
The breakdown in talks between the nationalists and Davutoğlu’s AKP raises the likelihood of a fractious multi-party interim government, more unwelcome news for jittery investors who have sent the Turkish Lira to a series of record lows. August/20/2015
“There is nothing to worry [about] here,” he said, adding very few countries could experience four consecutive elections with such low economic damage as Turkey did.
Davutoğlu noted all post-election processes were quite transparent and in line with the rule of law.
“In this process, there was no interruption in our budget discipline, banking system or monetary policy. We have taken all measures for our lower incomers not to be affected from the rise in inflation rates or the slowdown in the economic growth. Our investments are in progress. There has not so far been any negative trend in Turkey’s rating despite all risks and the fight against terrorism acts,” he said.
Davutoğlu said he held meetings with economy ministers, Central Bank head Erdem Başçı and Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan after a cabinet meeting last week.
“Along with the economy ministers, we made a series of decisions about how to control meat prices and what measures should be taken to overcome the rise in prices. I also held a meeting with Başçı. And I took a quite detailed briefing from Deputy PM Ali Babacan about the latest developments in the world economy,” he said.
Davutoğlu noted there was a general fluctuation affecting many other currencies across the world.
“We have seen reflective reactions in the markets. We cannot talk about any structural and permanent crisis… If I was quite concerned about the parities, I would have made our meeting with the head of the Nationalist Movement Party [MHP], Devlet Bahçeli, on a Friday, when the stock markets are closed, rather than last Monday. As we have complete confidence in the strength of our economy, we can make such meetings anytime,” he said.
The MHP rejected a coalition with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and refused to support a minority government on Aug. 17.
The breakdown in talks between the nationalists and Davutoğlu’s AKP raises the likelihood of a fractious multi-party interim government, more unwelcome news for jittery investors who have sent the Turkish Lira to a series of record lows. August/20/2015
Magician
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Turkey’s Lira, already at record lows, fell more than 1.5 percent on Aug. 20, briefly weakening beyond the psychological barrier of 3 to the dollar for the first time on a combination of political uncertainty and rising militant violence.
Besides, Turkey’s election commission has proposed that any snap parliamentary election should be held on Nov. 1, officials of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Aug. 20, reinforcing the sense that a re-vote is inevitable after June’s poll yielded no working majority.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu formally gave up its attempt to find a junior coalition partner on Aug. 18, more than two months after the AKP lost its overall majority for the first time since coming to power in 2002.
If, as now seems likely, no one else can form a coalition by Aug. 23, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is very likely to call a new election.
AKP officials said the High Election Board had proposed Nov. 1 as the date. But even that failed to assuage market worries about the $870 billion economy.
“A coalition would have been good for investor confidence, but now we have more uncertainty and I don’t think the result will change with new elections,” said Vedat Mizrahi, a managing director at financial services firm Ünlü & Co.
“It is really tough right now. There is almost no foreign institutional investor interest in Turkey.”
The lira was 1.6 percent weaker at 2.9745 to the dollar at 1100 GMT, and is now down over 20 percent against the dollar this year, making it one of the worst performing currencies among its emerging market peers.
“We’re getting poorer by the day,” said 44-year-old elementary school teacher Nevin, who was shopping for groceries at a supermarket in central Ankara. “Now they’re going to knock on our doors and ask for our votes? How dare they? Shameless politicians.”
Erdoğan, founder of the AKP, could still in theory ask the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to try to form a government.
However, the CHP has shown little sign of being able to assemble a majority, and local media quoted Erdogan as telling a meeting of village administrators that he would not “waste time” with those who did not know the address of the presidential palace, an apparent reference to the head of the CHP.
Instead, Erdoğan has indicated that he will summon an interim “election cabinet” to lead Turkey to a new election.
Investors looking to the Central Bank for an independent steadying hand have been disappointed.
The Bank declined to raise interest rates at its monthly policy meeting on Aug. 18.
August/20/2015
Besides, Turkey’s election commission has proposed that any snap parliamentary election should be held on Nov. 1, officials of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Aug. 20, reinforcing the sense that a re-vote is inevitable after June’s poll yielded no working majority.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu formally gave up its attempt to find a junior coalition partner on Aug. 18, more than two months after the AKP lost its overall majority for the first time since coming to power in 2002.
If, as now seems likely, no one else can form a coalition by Aug. 23, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is very likely to call a new election.
AKP officials said the High Election Board had proposed Nov. 1 as the date. But even that failed to assuage market worries about the $870 billion economy.
“A coalition would have been good for investor confidence, but now we have more uncertainty and I don’t think the result will change with new elections,” said Vedat Mizrahi, a managing director at financial services firm Ünlü & Co.
“It is really tough right now. There is almost no foreign institutional investor interest in Turkey.”
The lira was 1.6 percent weaker at 2.9745 to the dollar at 1100 GMT, and is now down over 20 percent against the dollar this year, making it one of the worst performing currencies among its emerging market peers.
“We’re getting poorer by the day,” said 44-year-old elementary school teacher Nevin, who was shopping for groceries at a supermarket in central Ankara. “Now they’re going to knock on our doors and ask for our votes? How dare they? Shameless politicians.”
Erdoğan, founder of the AKP, could still in theory ask the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to try to form a government.
However, the CHP has shown little sign of being able to assemble a majority, and local media quoted Erdogan as telling a meeting of village administrators that he would not “waste time” with those who did not know the address of the presidential palace, an apparent reference to the head of the CHP.
Instead, Erdoğan has indicated that he will summon an interim “election cabinet” to lead Turkey to a new election.
Investors looking to the Central Bank for an independent steadying hand have been disappointed.
The Bank declined to raise interest rates at its monthly policy meeting on Aug. 18.
August/20/2015
fabrifede
Forumer storico
Turchia, Erdogan annuncia elezioni anticipate
Turchia, Erdogan annuncia elezioni anticipate il 1° novembre | Prima Pagina | Reuters
Turchia, Erdogan annuncia elezioni anticipate il 1° novembre | Prima Pagina | Reuters
Magician
Forumer attivo
La Turchia torna a votare all'inizio di novembre. Lo annuncia il presidente Erdogan, che sta per sciogliere il Parlamento.
La Turchia tornerà al voto l'1 novembre prossimo. Lo ha annunciato il presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, uscendo da una moschea, dov'era per la preghiera del venerdì, chiarendo di volere incontrare lunedì il presidente del Parlamento per parlare sul da farsi. La notizia non era inattesa, dato che da giorni il premier Ahmet Davutoglu aveva ufficializzato il fallimento delle trattative per formare il nuovo governo con almeno un partito di opposizione, dopo che per la prima volta dal 2002, il partito islamico-conservatore Akp non è riuscito a ottenere la maggioranza assoluta dei seggi alle elezioni del 7 giugno scorso.
Il problema è che lo stallo di questi ultimi 2 mesi e mezzo potrebbe non trovare fine nemmeno con il ritorno alle urne, visto che i sondaggi fotografano attualmente una situazione molto simile a quella uscita fuori dal voto di giugno. Il rischio è che, quindi, anche stavolta l'Akp fallisca nell'obiettivo di ottenere la maggioranza assoluta dei seggi e passino ancora mesi, prima di formare un nuovo governo, più necessario che mai per Ankara, stretta tra terrorismo islamista dell'Isis, quello curdo del Pkk e della sinistra estremista turca.
Inoltre, l'economia è in deciso rallentamento, l'inflazione ancora alta (6,8% a luglio) e il deficit delle partite correnti preoccupante, anche se in calo, nonostante il tracollo dei prezzi energetici. Allarmante la crisi della lira turca, che ha perso intorno a un quarto di valore dall'inizio dell'anno e che ieri ha sfondato per la prima volta il cambio di 3 per un dollaro. Al momento, il rapporto è di 2,9282.
La Turchia tornerà al voto l'1 novembre prossimo. Lo ha annunciato il presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, uscendo da una moschea, dov'era per la preghiera del venerdì, chiarendo di volere incontrare lunedì il presidente del Parlamento per parlare sul da farsi. La notizia non era inattesa, dato che da giorni il premier Ahmet Davutoglu aveva ufficializzato il fallimento delle trattative per formare il nuovo governo con almeno un partito di opposizione, dopo che per la prima volta dal 2002, il partito islamico-conservatore Akp non è riuscito a ottenere la maggioranza assoluta dei seggi alle elezioni del 7 giugno scorso.
Il problema è che lo stallo di questi ultimi 2 mesi e mezzo potrebbe non trovare fine nemmeno con il ritorno alle urne, visto che i sondaggi fotografano attualmente una situazione molto simile a quella uscita fuori dal voto di giugno. Il rischio è che, quindi, anche stavolta l'Akp fallisca nell'obiettivo di ottenere la maggioranza assoluta dei seggi e passino ancora mesi, prima di formare un nuovo governo, più necessario che mai per Ankara, stretta tra terrorismo islamista dell'Isis, quello curdo del Pkk e della sinistra estremista turca.
Inoltre, l'economia è in deciso rallentamento, l'inflazione ancora alta (6,8% a luglio) e il deficit delle partite correnti preoccupante, anche se in calo, nonostante il tracollo dei prezzi energetici. Allarmante la crisi della lira turca, che ha perso intorno a un quarto di valore dall'inizio dell'anno e che ieri ha sfondato per la prima volta il cambio di 3 per un dollaro. Al momento, il rapporto è di 2,9282.
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