Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca

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Turkey - Factors to Watch on Jan 25
Oggi 05:34 - RSF
ANKARA, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Here are news, reports and events that may affect Turkish financial markets on Wednesday.

The lira
stood at 18.7980 against the dollar at 0415 GMT, little changed from a close of 18.8000 on Tuesday.

The main BIST 100 share index

GLOBAL MARKETS
Asian equities extended their winning run to scale their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks leading the way, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely.

ERDOGAN PROGRAMME
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will chair National Security Council meeting (1200GMT).

SWEDEN AND FINLAND
Turkey postponed a trilateral mechanism meeting with Sweden and Finland scheduled for February after a weekend protest in Stockholm that drew condemnation from Ankara, but Sweden wants to restore dialogue with Turkey.

CAPACITY UTILISATION

The central bank will release capacity utilisation data for January (0700 GMT).

MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE

The central bank will also announce manufacturing confidence data for January (0700 GMT).

CONFIDENCE INDEXES
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce service, retail trade and construction confidence indexes for January and the solid fuels statistics for the November 2022 period (0700 GMT).

HDP CLOSURE CASE
Turkey's Constitutional Court will announce its decision on pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) demand that final verdict in the closure case against the party should be announced after the Turkish elections, planned for May 2023.

OPPOSITION
Iyı (Good) Party will hold parliamentary group meeting (0730 GMT).

(Compiled by Huseyin Hayatsever)
(([email protected])

 

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Turkey - Factors to Watch on Jan 27
Oggi 06:14 - RSF
ISTANBUL, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Here are news, reports and events that may affect Turkish financial markets on Friday.

The lira
traded at 18.8080 against the dollar early on Friday, slighlt weaker than a close of 18.8025 on Thursday.

The main BIST 100 share index

GLOBAL MARKETS
Asian stocks rose on Friday and were poised for their fifth straight week of gains after data highlighted a resilient U.S.

economy, boosting investor sentiment ahead of next week's slate of central bank policy meetings.

ERDOGAN PROGRAMME
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will attend the opening ceremony of the Sogut gold mine facility in northwestern Anatolia, run by Gubretas . He will then attend another opening ceremony in Bilecik. (1100/1230)
FINANCE MINISTER
Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati will be attending an awards ceremony for companies in Istanbul. (1130)
MAIN OPPOSITION
Main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu will attend an opening ceremony in southern province of Mersin. (1100)
INFLATION OUTLOOK
Turkey's central bank stuck to its forecasts for a sharp drop in inflation on Thursday, saying the increasing predictability of the lira's exchange rate plus financing support meant there was no longer the basis for large price rises.

PRO-KURDISH PARTY
Turkey's top court rejected on Thursday a request by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) to delay until after the country's elections in May a final ruling on a case that could shut the party down over alleged ties to militants.

SWEDEN, FINLAND'S NATO BIDS
Two provocative incidents in Stockholm this month have energised Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan ahead of tight elections and dimmed Sweden and Finland's hopes of joining NATO before the summer, diplomats, analysts and opposition politicians say.

CENTRAL BANK
Turkey's central bank said on Thursday it would provide foreign exchange conversion support to companies that bring in foreign currency from abroad, including exporters and tourism firms.

(Writing by Ece Toksabay)
(([email protected]; +90 312 2927022; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

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Turkey - Factors to Watch on Jan 30
Oggi 05:25 - RSF
ISTANBUL, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Here are news, reports and events that may affect Turkish financial markets on Monday.

The lira
traded at 18.8090 against the dollar early on Monday, little changed from Friday's close.

The main BIST 100 share index

GLOBAL MARKETS
Asian shares edged higher on Monday into a week that is certain to see interest rates rise in Europe and the United States, along with U.S. jobs and wage data that may influence how much further they still have to go.

ENERGY MINISTER
Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez will attend an energy conference in Istanbul (0630 GMT).

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE

The Turkish Statistical Institute releases the economic confidence index for January(0700 GMT).

FINLAND'S NATO BID
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan signalled on Sunday that Ankara may agree to Finland joining NATO ahead of Sweden, amid growing tensions with Stockholm.

WARNINGS
Turkey warned its citizens on Saturday against "possible Islamophobic, xenophobic and racist attacks" in the United States and Europe after its Western allies cautioned their citizens in Turkey about possible terror attacks.

RUSSIA SANCTIONS
The U.S. Treasury Department's top sanctions official on a trip to Turkey and the Middle East next week will warn countries and businesses that they could lose access to G7 markets if they do business with entities subject to U.S. curbs as Washington cracks down on Russian attempts to evade sanctions imposed over its war in Ukraine.
(Compiled by Ezgi Erkoyun)
(([email protected]))

 

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Turkish economic confidence up 1.3% in January, nearly optimistic
Oggi 08:20 - RSF
Jan 30 (Reuters) - Turkey's economic confidence index rose 1.3% month-on-month in January to 99.3 points, nearly tipping toward an optimistic outlook, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The index, which points to an optimistic outlook when above 100 and pessimistic when below, hit a record low in 2020 before recovering as coronavirus measures were eased.

The lira has stabilized since about August and inflation is easing from a 24-year high, though the annual rate was still well above a 5% official target at 64% last month.

(Writing by Canan Sevgili; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected])

 

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UPDATE 1-Turkey to host summit of gas buyers, sellers next month
Oggi 10:02 - RSF
(Adds background and quote)
ISTANBUL, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Turkey will hold a natural gas summit on Feb. 14-15 to bring together gas supplier countries and Europe's consumer countries in Istanbul, Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said on Monday.

"We will bring together supplier countries from the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian and Middle Asia with consumer countries from Europe," Donmez said.

Turkey, which has little oil and gas, is highly dependent on imports from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, as well as LNG imports from Qatar, the United States, Nigeria and Algeria for its gas.


In October, Russia's President Vladimir Putin
proposed
setting up a gas hub in Turkey following explosions that damaged Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea.


Some Western capitals were concerned that a Turkish hub including Russian gas could allow Moscow to mask exports that are sanctioned by the West over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


Turkey has the infrastructure and experience in gas trade and authorities are taking steps for it to be a hub where regional benchmark prices are set, Donmez said.


"Our target is to bring together supplier and consumer countries and become the gas-trading center where the benchmark price of gas is set," Donmez said after separately announcing a
10-year gas deal
with Oman.


(Reporting by Can Sezer; Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Toby Chopra and Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

 

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POLL-Turkey annual inflation to drop to 53.5% in January, despite sharp monthly rise
Oggi 10:45 - RSF

*
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCPI%3DECI
for monthly poll


*
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCPIY%3DECI
for annual poll


*
Year-end forecast at 41%



ISTANBUL, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Turkey's annual inflation should drop to 53.5% in January even as prices continue jumping on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll on Monday that also showed inflation will end the year at 41%, much higher than official expectations.

Inflation has been stoked by a currency crisis at the end of 2021 and it touched a 24-year peak of 85.51% in October. It fell sharply in December due to a base effect and a similar drop is expected in January.

The surge in prices in the same period last year spells relief for this year's annual inflation calculation early this year, but economist see the drop slowing.

They forecast inflation to end 2023 at nearly twice the 22.3% rate that the central bank forecasts, potentially extending cost-of-living strains as President Tayyip Erdogan seeks re-election in May this year.

The median estimate of 13 economists in a Reuters poll for annual inflation in January stood at 53.5%, a sharp drop from 64.27% in December. Forecasts ranged between 51.2% and 56.65%.

On a monthly basis the median estimate was 3.8%, in a range of 2.30% to 5.95%. The sharp expected monthly rise is due to a raft of administered new-year price hikes including for public transit, tobacco products, services, as well as rising food prices.

Despite soaring prices, the central bank has taken the unorthodox step of slashing its policy rate to 9% from 19% since late 2021. It said its most recent series of cuts, late last year, was meant to address an economic slowdown.

On Thursday, Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu said no basis remains for sharp price hikes in Turkey. He also stood by his previous estimate that inflation will drop to 22.3% by the end of the year.

But the median estimate of 10 economists for inflation at year-end stood at 41% in the Reuters poll, with forecasts coming in between 30% and 48%.

Erdogan's economic plan aims to achieve price stability by slashing borrowing costs, boosting exports and flipping chronic current account deficits to surpluses.

But the rate cuts sparked a late-2021 currency crash, which saw the lira lose 44% versus the dollar that year and another 30% in 2022, stoking inflation.

The price surge hit Erdogan's opinion polls, which suggest that parliamentary and presidential elections set for May will be tight. An opposition alliance promises to roll back the unorthodox economic policies if elected.

Underlining polls that show most Turks think inflation is higher than official stats show, a confederation of unions said it calculated that Ankara food prices jumped by 9.02% in January from a month earlier.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce January inflation data at 0700 GMT on Feb. 3.

(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen and Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

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UPDATE 1-Turkey's tourism gains in war-hit 2022 but trade deficit widens
Oggi 10:53 - RSF
(Writes through to combine tourism revenue, trade data, arrivals; adds context, graphic)
By Canan Sevgili and Can Sezer
ISTANBUL, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Turkey's tourism revenue hit a record $46.3 billion in 2022 even as its trade deficit swelled to more than $109 billion, as a fallout from war in nearby Ukraine brought a surge of Russian arrivals but also drove up energy-import costs.

The two milestones for the big emerging market economy came as President Tayyip Erdogan faces a tight election in May, and as he forges on with an unorthodox policy of slashing interest rates to eventually achieve a current account surplus.

That goal was complicated by a surge in oil and gas prices in the first half of last year and by the lira currency's slide due to the policy itself, analysts said.

Revenue from tourists jumped 53% from the previous year, and blew past the previous high of $34.5 billion in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Tuesday.

Foreign arrivals totalled 44.6 million last year, just shy of the 2019 peak of 45.1 million, tourism ministry data showed.

COVID-19 restrictions all but dissipated in 2022 and Russians, which were second only to Germans in foreign arrivals, came in droves partly due to flight restrictions imposed by Western nations over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians are also estimated to have moved last year to Turkey, seen as a safe haven for investment in homes and other assets.

Tourism Minister Mehmet Ersoy on Tuesday predicted that 2023 would see $56 billion in tourism revenue.

BIG IMPORT BILL
But even as arrivals at Turkey's Mediterranean beaches and historical sites brought in forex, energy imports shot up by more than 90% to $96.55 billion in 2022, the official data showed.

Energy imports were up 14% in December.

Russia's invasion last year initially sent oil and gas prices surging, straining Turkey, which imports virtually all its energy needs.

The overall foreign trade deficit surged 137% year-on-year to $109.54 billion in 2022, according to the general trade system, the data showed, while the December deficit increased 42% from a year earlier.

In 2022, exports rose 12.9% to $254.1 billion and imports jumped 34% to $363.7 billion. In December, the deficit amounted to $9.7 billion.

Under Erdogan's economic programme unveiled in 2021, Turkey aims to shift from chronic deficits to a current account surplus through stronger exports and low rates.

But the rate cuts sparked a currency crash in late 2021 that sliced 44% from the lira's value that year, sending inflation roaring above 85% in 2022.

The currency weakness, including another 29% depreciation in 2022, attracted European and Arab tourists last year, sector officials said.

In the fourth quarter, tourism revenue climbed 22.2% to $11.37 billion, the data showed.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
( Additional reporting by Azra Ceylan, Ceyda Caglayan and Huseyin Hayatsever; Writing by Jonathan Spicer and Arun Koyyur)
(([email protected])

 

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Turkey expects to collect $5.32 bln in debt restructuring before elections
Oggi 13:09 - RSF
ANKARA, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Turkey's government is expecting some 100 billion lira ($5.32 billion) in payment as part of a restructuring of public debt worth 1 trillion lira under a draft law, an impact analysis report submitted to a parliamentary commission showed.

The restructuring package will allow individuals and companies to catch up with unpaid tax and social security debt, in a move seen to gather support for for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan ahead of tight elections to be held in May.

The analysis showed tax offices will be able to collect 43.5 billion lira from some 521 billion lira receivable, while the social security institution is expected to collect 47.8 billion lira from 196 billion lira outstanding as part of the law.

The draft law includes scrapping public debt below 2,000 liras, meaning the public institutions will give up collecting some 4.6 billion lira, according to the analysis.

The government has already ramped up spending, including dropping the retirement age requirement for millions and substantial hikes to minimum wage and pensions.

Last week, Erdogan announced the planned draft and said it will enable restructuring of debt to tax offices, customs offices, municipalities.

($1 = 18.8079 liras)
(Reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

 

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Turkey's foreign arrivals jump to near record 44.6 mln in 2022
Oggi 09:46 - RSF
GDANSK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Foreign visitors arriving in Turkey surged 80.33% year-on-year to 44.56 million in 2022, recovering from earlier pandemic fallout but still just short of the record 45.06 million people in 2019, official data showed on Tuesday.

The arrivals compared to 24.71 million foreign visitors in 2021 and 12.73 million in 2020.

In December there were 2.4 million foreign visitors, up 27% from the same period in 2021, tourism ministry data showed.

(Reporting by Canan Sevgili; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected])

 

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Milano Finanza: numerop peciale su numeri 2022 e previsioni 2023
30/12/2022 14:20 - MF-DJ
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Nello speciale di Milano Finanza in edicola da domani tutti i numeri della finanza del 2022 e le previsioni per il 2023, settore per settore: 50 classifiche e 300 grafici con i rendimenti di azioni, titoli di Stato, obbligazioni corporate, fondi, valute, materie prime, criptovalute, arte e vino. E'' stato anche realizzato un sondaggio esclusivo sulle previsioni dei gestori dei fondi di investimento per il 2023 con le stime sull''andamento delle borse. A fronte di un''economia che annaspa, i mercati finanziari sono pronti alla ripartenza. Questa la visione dei 46 gestori sentiti da MF-Milano Finanza nel sondaggio sulle aspettative per le borse e lo scenario macroeconomico nel corso dell''anno che sta per iniziare. Le previsioni per il 2023 e le mosse delle banche centrali contro l''inflazione Tutti gli esperti danno per scontata la recessione. La gran parte stima un impatto limitato, un atterraggio morbido, in Europa e negli Usa. Se sull''inflazione Usa c''e'' un giudizio quasi unanime su un rincaro dei prezzi fra il 3% e il 5%, piu'' controversa e'' la questione in Eurozona, dove il 38,2% degli esperti contattati da Milano Finanza indica un carovita ancora in crescita tra il 5% e il 10%. Circa il futuro atteggiamento della Fed, i gestori sono divisi equamente tra chi ritiene che fermera'' i rialzi dei tassi nel primo trimestre e chi sostiene che lo fara'' nel secondo. Per la Bce solo un gestore su cinque (20%) crede che le strette possano durare ancora per tutto il 2023, mentre la gran parte si attende uno stop ai rialzi dei tassi nel corso dell''anno. Piazza Affari rialzera'' la testa. Su quali asset puntare Sui mercati si prevede la ripresa dopo le forti perdite dell''anno borsistico appena chiuso. Quasi il 65% degli intervistati si attende un rimbalzo di Piazza Affari. Di quanto? Qui le stime divergono: un terzo tra chi vede la borsa di Milano in crescita nel 2023 stima un rialzo superiore al 10%; gli altri si attestano tra il 5% e il 10%. I titoli su cui puntera'' la maggior parte dei gestori sono Enel, Unicredit, Reply, Campari, Fineco, Eni e Intesa Sanpaolo. Wall Street resta la preferita dei gestori tra le piazze mondiali sulle quali investire, seguita da Cina, Paesi emergenti ed Europa e, piu'' distaccati, Giappone e Asia. Per quanto riguarda l''asset allocation, cresce la prevalenza per il reddito fisso, che torna con quote importanti anche nei portafogli piu'' speculativi. Il mercato voltera'' le spalle alle criptovalute. Le prospettive degli investitori sono molto negative. Per il 54,1% il bitcoin scendera'' ancora, sotto la soglia dei 15 mila dollari (oggi e'' a 16.500 dollari). L''oro si conferma bene rifugio: sono il 7% lo vede scendere sotto quota 1.800 dollari. Il bilancio del 2022 Azioni. Si chiude uno dei peggiori anni per le borse di tutto il mondo. A Wall Street l''indice Dow Jones ha perso il 9,2% mentre l''indice tecnologico Nasdaq Composite e'' crollato del 33,8%. In Italia la borsa di Milano ha perso il 12,5% dall''inizio del 2022 (dati aggiornati alla chiusura di giovedi'' 29 dicembre). Le migliori azioni di Piazza Affari, tra i titoli principali, sono state Tenaris (+78,7%), Leonardo SPA (+28,5%) e Banco Bpm (+26,4%). Le peggiori dell''indice delle principali 40 societa'' sono invece state Saipem (-75,2%), Tim (-49,7%) e Nexi (-47,5%). La migliore azione in assoluto a Milano e'' stata D''Amico International Shipping con un rialzo nel 2022 pari al 308%. Ki Group e'' stata la peggiore in assoluto con ribasso del 99%. Nel segmento Euronext Growth Milan la migliore performance e'' stata realizzata da Fope, con un incremento del 141,3%. Tra le borse mondiali il primato spetta alla borsa di Buenos Aires (+134%), mentre la peggiore e'' quella di Mosca (-43%). Titoli di Stato. Quello della Grecia e'' stato il peggiore mercato per le obbligazioni governative con -14,35%, seguito a ruota da Olanda e Italia con -13,69%, mentre hanno resistito di piu'' quelli di Spagna (-11,36%), Francia (-10,77%), Portogallo (-10,37%) e la Germania (-10,35%) che, seppure con un risultato negativo a doppia cifra, si colloca come miglior mercato dell''area euro per i portafogli di titoli di Stato europei. Fondi. Sorpresa dalla Turchia: i fondi di investimento specializzati sul mercato azionario di Ankara hanno registrato un boom nel corso del 2022. I migliori sono stati i fondi di categoria azionari Paese Turchia che hanno puntato sull''andamento dell''indice Msci Turkey, cresciuto di circa il 100% in dollari da inizio anno (anche se in euro il dato si dimezza per l''effetto cambio). Criptovalute. Il bitcoin ha perso oltre il 60% del suo valore di inizio anno; peggio ha fatto Ethereum, -66%. Materie prime. Caffe'', gas naturale e petrolio sono state le materie prime che si sono apprezzate di piu'', con rialzi rispettivamente del 75%, 51% e 40%. Il succo d''arancia e'' la commodity che secondo gli esperti ha il maggiore potenziale di crescita, dopo aver segnato +15% nell''anno appena chiuso sui mercati. Condizioni climatiche estreme e nuove malattie delle piante renderanno anche nel prossimo anno piu'' complicate le forniture. Fashion. Il mercato del luxury globale e'' cresciuto del 21% a 1.400 miliardi di euro grazie alla capacita'' di mantenere i prezzi dei beni di alta gamma, anche se in borsa ha perso il 27% in un anno. Bernard Arnault (Lvmh) nel 2022 e'' balzato al primo posto nella classifica dei piu'' ricchi del mondo. Il miglior titolo in borsa a Milano e'' stato Gismondi 1754 (+101%). Immobili. I prezzi delle case in Europa hanno segnato un incremento generale del 9,9% a dispetto di guerra, inflazione e pandemia. Nel 2023 il rallentamento della domanda potra'' avere leggere ripercussioni sui prezzi, con un -5% in media. Fra le principali capitali europee solo Parigi registra gia'' un calo dello 0,8% nel 2022. Il mattone di Londra invece e'' salito del 7%. A Milano il migliore apprezzamento dei prezzi delle abitazioni si registra nel quartiere Palestro-Venezia (+3%). Arte. "Shot sage blue Marilyn" (1964) di Andy Warhol e'' il dipinto che ha segnato il record dell''anno: e'' stato battuto all''asta da Christie''s a New York per un valore pari a 184,42 milioni di euro. Vino. L''investimento sui migliori vini italiani ha dato un rendimento del 18% nel confronto tra le quotazioni rilevate da Milano Finanza. Nelle aggiudicazioni all''asta per le bottiglie dei produttori italiani il record e'' dell''etichetta Brunello, con una quotazione di 10 mila euro a bottiglia
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