Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione sentex
- Data di Inizio
2K2
We will arrive in the fog
se è per quello i CDS turchia a luglio 2022 è stato anche a 800
2K2
We will arrive in the fog
Turchia: ministro Esteri annuncia commissione per normalizzare le relazioni con la Siria
Beirut, 25 mag 07:50 - (Agenzia Nova)- In vista della normalizzazione delle relazioni con la Siria, il ministro degli Esteri della Turchia, Mevlut Cavusoglu, ha annunciato l’istituzione di una commissione che “si riunirà tra pochi giorni”. Lo ha riferito il quotidiano panarabo con sede a Beirut “Al Mayadeen”. La commissione, ha spiegato Cavusoglu, sarà incaricata di redigere un “piano d’azione”, una “road map”, per ripristinare le relazioni tra Ankara e Damasco. In precedenza, il ministro degli Esteri siriano, Faisal al Miqdad, aveva affermato che entrambi i Paesi avrebbero avuto buone possibilità di cooperare per realizzare le aspirazioni dei due popoli. “La Siria e la Turchia”, aveva detto Miqdad, “hanno incomune lunghi confini, obiettivi e interessi e noi pensiamo che malgrado tutte le turbolenze degli ultimi anni, i due Paesi abbiano la possibilità di lavorare insieme”. Per questo, ha aggiunto, Damasco è aperta al dialogo con Ankara, dal momento che questa è la soluzione più efficace. L’importante, aveva aggiunto, “è che le relazioni siano fondate sul rispetto reciproco della sovranità, dell’indipendenza, dell’unità e dell’integrità territoriale e sul principio della non ingerenza negli affari interni di un Paese. (Res)
pietro17elettra
Nonno pensionato
By Ebru Tuncay, Orhan Coskun and Nevzat Devranoglu
ANKARA, May 24 (Reuters) - Days before Turkey's runoff presidential election, there is disagreement and uncertainty within Tayyip Erdogan's government over whether to stick with what some call an unsustainable economic programme or to abandon it, insiders say.
According to interviews with nine sources, either government officials or others with direct knowledge of the matter, an informal group of ruling-party members have gathered in recent weeks to discuss how it might adopt a new policy of gradual interest rate hikes and a targeted lending programme.
Erdogan is not directly involved in the talks, which include some AK Party members who are outside the administration but held senior positions in the past, four of the sources said, requesting anonymity to discuss the private meetings.
On the other side are officials and cabinet members who publicly state they want to stick with the current programme of boosting exports and economic growth via rate cuts and heavily-managed forex, credit and debt markets.
Given Erdogan led after the initial vote, much is at stake for the major emerging market economy that has been gripped by a cost-of-living crisis and series of currency crashes.
With foreign reserves tumbling, some analysts say Turkey could face another economic crash as soon as this year that sends inflation soaring again and strains its balance of payments - unless the government changes course.
"They are studying a new economic model... since the existing model cannot be sustained," said a senior official close to the matter. "Basically, it would gradually raise the interest rate and end the structure of using multiple rates."
The group has not yet presented the full plan to Erdogan, the official said.
Erdogan's office was not immediately available for a comment.
Seeking to extend his reign into a third decade in the Sunday runoff, Erdogan has said in the campaign that interest rates would decrease as long as he is in power, and inflation would be brought under control.
All sources said there is no suggestion Erdogan has made a decision and most said he has previously heard the concerns over growing economic strains and depleted foreign reserves.
Three of the sources said he could stay the course for the next several months at least, emboldened by a better-than-expected result on May 14 when he took 49.5% of the first-round vote versus his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu at 44.9%.
Analysts say the president is in pole position to win the runoff.
"There are two different opinions within the party," another source, a ruling AK Party official, said. He added that any decision would seek to preserve economic stability through to the next critical election test: municipal polls in March next year.
A third official said the strong election results could ultimately convince leaders "that a rapid change is not needed."
PIVOT POSSIBILITY
The lira has shed almost 80% of it value to the dollar in five years largely due to Erdogan's economic policies, economists say. It has touched new record lows since the initial vote while measures of investment risk have soared.
Kilicdaroglu's opposition alliance pledges to reverse Erdogan's programme with aggressive rake hikes and a return to free-market principles, a prospect that cheered international investors ahead of the elections.
Though a self-proclaimed "enemy" of interest rates, Erdogan has on occasion taken a more orthodox approach when faced with past economic crises, before pivoting back.
The informal group working on a new plan is not considering aggressive monetary tightening, but rather a more gradual path that again emphasises the policy rate in lending markets, four of the sources said. Another option is using a public institution and state subsidies to deliver selective credit, they added.
Several ideas were considered, the details of which were unclear. It was also unclear whether the group had pitched the plan to Erdogan, or his level of interest in it.
Fitch said Turkey's "B negative" credit rating depends on whether the post-election policy "becomes more credible and consistent" given the pressure on the lira, wide current account deficit, declining reserves and high inflation.
'VERY BLEAK OUTLOOK'
The president appointed a new economy minister and central bank governor in 2021 to begin slashing interest rates to 8.5% from 19% at the time.
This sparked a historic currency crash in late 2021 and sent inflation above 85% last year, prompting more than 100 new regulations that discouraged foreign currency holdings and ramped up banks' bond holdings.
The central bank's policy of stabilising the lira, meanwhile, sent its net foreign reserves into negative territory for the first time since 2002, while the bank has also sold $9 billion in gold since March to meet pre-election demand.
Authorities could seek more FX from foreign allies, or further suppress demand which could slow growth and risks clamping down further on capital, economists say.
"It all points to a very bleak outlook. It's hard to believe that this can be sustained," said Francesc Balcells, CIO of Emerging Markets Debt at FIM Partners.
"You could argue (Erdogan) could have a change of heart and then embrace orthodoxy," he said. "I'm not ruling it out... But at the end of the day, I think the basis of his economic beliefs will not change."
Ahead of the elections, Erdogan hinted at a possible change when he said former finance minister Mehmet Simsek, who is well know by international investors, could return to government to help shape policies.
But it remained unclear what if any role Simsek might play if Erdogan wins the runoff, the interviews showed.
Officials who want to stick with the current programme say its selective loan policies prioritising technology, energy, natural resources and tourism are estimated to contribute cumulatively some $289 billion to the current account balance by 2030, thus supporting the currency.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Writing by Jonathan Spicer, Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
(([email protected]
)
ANKARA, May 24 (Reuters) - Days before Turkey's runoff presidential election, there is disagreement and uncertainty within Tayyip Erdogan's government over whether to stick with what some call an unsustainable economic programme or to abandon it, insiders say.
According to interviews with nine sources, either government officials or others with direct knowledge of the matter, an informal group of ruling-party members have gathered in recent weeks to discuss how it might adopt a new policy of gradual interest rate hikes and a targeted lending programme.
Erdogan is not directly involved in the talks, which include some AK Party members who are outside the administration but held senior positions in the past, four of the sources said, requesting anonymity to discuss the private meetings.
On the other side are officials and cabinet members who publicly state they want to stick with the current programme of boosting exports and economic growth via rate cuts and heavily-managed forex, credit and debt markets.
Given Erdogan led after the initial vote, much is at stake for the major emerging market economy that has been gripped by a cost-of-living crisis and series of currency crashes.
With foreign reserves tumbling, some analysts say Turkey could face another economic crash as soon as this year that sends inflation soaring again and strains its balance of payments - unless the government changes course.
"They are studying a new economic model... since the existing model cannot be sustained," said a senior official close to the matter. "Basically, it would gradually raise the interest rate and end the structure of using multiple rates."
The group has not yet presented the full plan to Erdogan, the official said.
Erdogan's office was not immediately available for a comment.
Seeking to extend his reign into a third decade in the Sunday runoff, Erdogan has said in the campaign that interest rates would decrease as long as he is in power, and inflation would be brought under control.
All sources said there is no suggestion Erdogan has made a decision and most said he has previously heard the concerns over growing economic strains and depleted foreign reserves.
Three of the sources said he could stay the course for the next several months at least, emboldened by a better-than-expected result on May 14 when he took 49.5% of the first-round vote versus his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu at 44.9%.
Analysts say the president is in pole position to win the runoff.
"There are two different opinions within the party," another source, a ruling AK Party official, said. He added that any decision would seek to preserve economic stability through to the next critical election test: municipal polls in March next year.
A third official said the strong election results could ultimately convince leaders "that a rapid change is not needed."
PIVOT POSSIBILITY
The lira has shed almost 80% of it value to the dollar in five years largely due to Erdogan's economic policies, economists say. It has touched new record lows since the initial vote while measures of investment risk have soared.
Kilicdaroglu's opposition alliance pledges to reverse Erdogan's programme with aggressive rake hikes and a return to free-market principles, a prospect that cheered international investors ahead of the elections.
Though a self-proclaimed "enemy" of interest rates, Erdogan has on occasion taken a more orthodox approach when faced with past economic crises, before pivoting back.
The informal group working on a new plan is not considering aggressive monetary tightening, but rather a more gradual path that again emphasises the policy rate in lending markets, four of the sources said. Another option is using a public institution and state subsidies to deliver selective credit, they added.
Several ideas were considered, the details of which were unclear. It was also unclear whether the group had pitched the plan to Erdogan, or his level of interest in it.
Fitch said Turkey's "B negative" credit rating depends on whether the post-election policy "becomes more credible and consistent" given the pressure on the lira, wide current account deficit, declining reserves and high inflation.
'VERY BLEAK OUTLOOK'
The president appointed a new economy minister and central bank governor in 2021 to begin slashing interest rates to 8.5% from 19% at the time.
This sparked a historic currency crash in late 2021 and sent inflation above 85% last year, prompting more than 100 new regulations that discouraged foreign currency holdings and ramped up banks' bond holdings.
The central bank's policy of stabilising the lira, meanwhile, sent its net foreign reserves into negative territory for the first time since 2002, while the bank has also sold $9 billion in gold since March to meet pre-election demand.
Authorities could seek more FX from foreign allies, or further suppress demand which could slow growth and risks clamping down further on capital, economists say.
"It all points to a very bleak outlook. It's hard to believe that this can be sustained," said Francesc Balcells, CIO of Emerging Markets Debt at FIM Partners.
"You could argue (Erdogan) could have a change of heart and then embrace orthodoxy," he said. "I'm not ruling it out... But at the end of the day, I think the basis of his economic beliefs will not change."
Ahead of the elections, Erdogan hinted at a possible change when he said former finance minister Mehmet Simsek, who is well know by international investors, could return to government to help shape policies.
But it remained unclear what if any role Simsek might play if Erdogan wins the runoff, the interviews showed.
Officials who want to stick with the current programme say its selective loan policies prioritising technology, energy, natural resources and tourism are estimated to contribute cumulatively some $289 billion to the current account balance by 2030, thus supporting the currency.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Writing by Jonathan Spicer, Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
(([email protected]
)
pietro17elettra
Nonno pensionato
RPT-POLL-Turkey cenbank to hold rates as election goes to runoff
Oggi 07:06 - RSF
(Repeats with no changes to text)
*
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=TRINT%3DECI
poll
ISTANBUL, May 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its interest rate at 8.5% next week, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as Turkey's presidential race heads to a runoff with incumbent Tayyip Erdogan leading the polls.
After Sunday's first round of voting, Erdogan's rival faces an uphill struggle to prevent the president from extending his rule into a third decade in the runoff on May 28.
Meanwhile, Erdogan's ruling AK Party and its nationalists allies won a majority in the parliamentary election, which also took place on Sunday.
In response to the elections, Turkey's sovereign dollar bonds and equities tumbled, the lira weakened and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkish debt spiked, but economists expect the central bank to keep rates on hold when it meets on May 25.
Last year the central bank cut its main rate by 500 basis points to counter an economic slowdown, then held it at 9% in December and January. It eased despite inflation having reached 85% last year and remaining at 43.68% in April.
The bank trimmed by another 50 basis points in February to boost industrial production and employment after earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless. It said the "measured" cut was "adequate" to support the recovery.
According to the median estimate of the Reuters poll of 12 economists, the central bank will keep its one-week repo rate steady at 8.5% next Thursday.
Due to the unpredictability of the election outcome, the majority of the economists refrained from responding to a question regarding their forecast for the policy rate level at year-end.
The presidential election, in which no candidate could win more than 50% of the votes in the first round, could change the path of monetary policy as the opposition has pledged a return to economic orthodoxy to help tame inflation.
The central bank has kept its policy rate low in line with the economic programme championed by Erdogan, which prioritises investment, growth and exports to achieve a current account surplus.
The central bank will announce its interest rate decision at 1100 GMT on May 25.
(Polling by Ezgi Erkoyun Editing by Gareth Jones)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])
Oggi 07:06 - RSF
(Repeats with no changes to text)
*
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=TRINT%3DECI
poll
ISTANBUL, May 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its interest rate at 8.5% next week, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as Turkey's presidential race heads to a runoff with incumbent Tayyip Erdogan leading the polls.
After Sunday's first round of voting, Erdogan's rival faces an uphill struggle to prevent the president from extending his rule into a third decade in the runoff on May 28.
Meanwhile, Erdogan's ruling AK Party and its nationalists allies won a majority in the parliamentary election, which also took place on Sunday.
In response to the elections, Turkey's sovereign dollar bonds and equities tumbled, the lira weakened and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkish debt spiked, but economists expect the central bank to keep rates on hold when it meets on May 25.
Last year the central bank cut its main rate by 500 basis points to counter an economic slowdown, then held it at 9% in December and January. It eased despite inflation having reached 85% last year and remaining at 43.68% in April.
The bank trimmed by another 50 basis points in February to boost industrial production and employment after earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless. It said the "measured" cut was "adequate" to support the recovery.
According to the median estimate of the Reuters poll of 12 economists, the central bank will keep its one-week repo rate steady at 8.5% next Thursday.
Due to the unpredictability of the election outcome, the majority of the economists refrained from responding to a question regarding their forecast for the policy rate level at year-end.
The presidential election, in which no candidate could win more than 50% of the votes in the first round, could change the path of monetary policy as the opposition has pledged a return to economic orthodoxy to help tame inflation.
The central bank has kept its policy rate low in line with the economic programme championed by Erdogan, which prioritises investment, growth and exports to achieve a current account surplus.
The central bank will announce its interest rate decision at 1100 GMT on May 25.
(Polling by Ezgi Erkoyun Editing by Gareth Jones)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]
)
pietro17elettra
Nonno pensionato
La Turchia chiede alle banche di acquistare eurobond, con l'obiettivo di arginare l'impennata dei CDS
Oggi 09:53 - RSF
ANKARA, 25 maggio (Reuters) - Questa settimana le autorità turche hanno chiesto alle banche di acquistare eurobond del Tesoro, dopo che i credit default swap (CDS) di Ankara sono aumentati vertiginosamente dopo il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali, che hanno mostrato che Tayyip Erdogan era vicino alla vittoria, hanno detto tre fonti.
I CDS turchi, il costo per assicurare il debito della Turchia contro il default, sono saliti di 200 punti base a quasi 700 punti base dopo che Erdogan ha ottenuto il 49,5% dei voti, poco meno del 50% necessario per vincere a titolo definitivo. I CDS sono scesi sotto 670 alla chiusura di mercoledì.
I piani economici di Erdogan, che hanno plasmato i suoi ultimi cinque anni al potere, hanno spinto la Turchia sull'orlo di un crollo economico, affermano gli analisti.
Non è chiaro se Erdogan andrà avanti con tali politiche o tornerà a una proposta più ortodossa se estenderà il suo governo a un terzo decennio nel ballottaggio presidenziale di domenica.
Due fonti bancarie hanno riferito a Reuters che il Tesoro turco ha tenuto un incontro con le banche sull'acquisto di eurobond, mentre un'altra ha detto che la banca centrale aveva ordinato alle banche di acquistarli.
"I funzionari dell'economia hanno chiesto alle istituzioni finanziarie di acquistare determinate quantità di eurobond dall'inizio della settimana", ha detto un banchiere senior. "L'istituzione per cui lavoro ha effettuato un tale acquisto."
I banchieri hanno affermato che gli acquisti di eurobond aiutano ad arginare l'aumento dei livelli dei CDS. Mercoledì alcuni media hanno riferito che la banca centrale aveva chiesto alle banche di acquistare eurobond.
La banca centrale non ha commentato la questione, mentre il Tesoro non ha risposto immediatamente a una richiesta di commento.
(Segnalazione di Nevzat Devranoglu. Montaggio di Gerry Doyle)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Messaggi Reuters: Messaggi Reuters: [email protected]))
Oggi 09:53 - RSF
ANKARA, 25 maggio (Reuters) - Questa settimana le autorità turche hanno chiesto alle banche di acquistare eurobond del Tesoro, dopo che i credit default swap (CDS) di Ankara sono aumentati vertiginosamente dopo il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali, che hanno mostrato che Tayyip Erdogan era vicino alla vittoria, hanno detto tre fonti.
I CDS turchi, il costo per assicurare il debito della Turchia contro il default, sono saliti di 200 punti base a quasi 700 punti base dopo che Erdogan ha ottenuto il 49,5% dei voti, poco meno del 50% necessario per vincere a titolo definitivo. I CDS sono scesi sotto 670 alla chiusura di mercoledì.
I piani economici di Erdogan, che hanno plasmato i suoi ultimi cinque anni al potere, hanno spinto la Turchia sull'orlo di un crollo economico, affermano gli analisti.
Non è chiaro se Erdogan andrà avanti con tali politiche o tornerà a una proposta più ortodossa se estenderà il suo governo a un terzo decennio nel ballottaggio presidenziale di domenica.
Due fonti bancarie hanno riferito a Reuters che il Tesoro turco ha tenuto un incontro con le banche sull'acquisto di eurobond, mentre un'altra ha detto che la banca centrale aveva ordinato alle banche di acquistarli.
"I funzionari dell'economia hanno chiesto alle istituzioni finanziarie di acquistare determinate quantità di eurobond dall'inizio della settimana", ha detto un banchiere senior. "L'istituzione per cui lavoro ha effettuato un tale acquisto."
I banchieri hanno affermato che gli acquisti di eurobond aiutano ad arginare l'aumento dei livelli dei CDS. Mercoledì alcuni media hanno riferito che la banca centrale aveva chiesto alle banche di acquistare eurobond.
La banca centrale non ha commentato la questione, mentre il Tesoro non ha risposto immediatamente a una richiesta di commento.
(Segnalazione di Nevzat Devranoglu. Montaggio di Gerry Doyle)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Messaggi Reuters: Messaggi Reuters: [email protected]))
m.m.f
Forumer storico
...auspichiamo quindi non ci tornino e non li superino...cosa non scontata ma possibile...
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Perché no,si compra…