negusneg
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Euro area: Italy is about to turn the corner:
• After 13 quarters of recession, we believe the Italian economy finally is poised to grow again
• Several cyclical indicators support our call
• Key macro drivers: exchange rate depreciation, sharp fall in oil prices, and the impact of QE
Last week, the flash release of 4Q14 Italian GDP was in line with our expectations: the economy stagnated with output edging down 0.1%q/q, saar. No details are available yet, but the statistics office pointed to a contraction in industry partly offset by modest growth in services. As we had expected, domestic demand was a drag on growth, largely on account of disappointing fixed investment, in our view, while net trade lifted activity. The flat 4Q14 reading marks the thirteenth consecutive quarter of recession in Italy. The failure to exit recession is a striking feature of the Italian economy, which is the only Euro area country except Cyprus where economic activity contracted in 2014. In an earlier note, we discussed several reasons why the Italian cycle lags other EMU countries, including countries in the periphery (see “Explaining Italian and Spanish performance,” GDW, November 28, 2014).
Despite the downbeat 4Q14 performance, we believe the Italian economy is now finally ready to expand again. We expect growth to run at an average 1.3%q/q, ar pace in 2015. Here we focus on some key factors that suggest a turning point is imminent.
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