Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (4 lettori)

amorgos34

amorgos34

CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
JPM su Raiffeisen (poco utile, è di ieri sera): overweight.

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI AV)

2Q15 Preview

Overweight

Price: €12.21

18 Aug 2015






Raiffeisen is due to report 2Q15 results on Wednesday, 19 August. We forecast net profit of €120 mn (somewhat below the €133 mn expected by the company-compiled consensus), noticeably above vs. last quarter’s €83 mn earnings, but -35% y/y. The key trends we expect in 2Q are: 1) broadly flat q/q NII at €818 mn; 2) 3% pick-up in fees q/q; 3) trading and other income influenced by a number of one-offs, including a negative €15 mn own debt valuation adjustment, €25 mn release of provisions related to the Settlement Act in Hungary and €21 mn release of Hungarian bank levy provisions; 4) a small q/q pickup in costs, as the negative impact of an additional €31 mn resolution fund contributions and €19 mn of restructuring costs is offset to an extent by the release of bonus provisions of €76 mn; and 5) increased loan loss provisions of €365 mn vs. €260 mn last quarter.

· Conference call: 19 August, 13:00 BST, dial in: +44 (0)20 3427 1932, code: 1990961#. The focus is likely to be on capital (following CET1 of 9.9% in 1Q15), performance of the Russian and Ukrainian subsidiaries, CoR outlook and progress with the restructuring plan.
 
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amorgos34

amorgos34

CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Per chi ama le sveltine :
UBS vende a 68, JPM compra a 68,500 (operativissimi fino alle 09.57)

Il fatto che JPM, come altre due volte, si sia messa in denaro "forte" non depone a sfavore dell'innalzamento delle quotazioni.
 
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fidw99

100% perpetual
ho trovato un commento sul freshes di mps...
cerca di chiarire alcuni aspetti di questo strumento oscuro...


Monte to go it alone? Good for FRESHES?
Corriere newspaper is running a story that Monte Paschi may present a
standalone plan to the ECB in September. The plan would need ECB approval
before they can ditch the M&A plan which is the only one clearly endorsed by
the ECB already.
As we noted two weeks ago the H1 numbers were actually OK. I mean we’re not
talking Handelsbanken or UOB, but they were OK and hinted towards stability,
nay even improving fundamentals through to year end. And it also has to be said
that it does not look right now that potential partners are 'liking' Monte much
in the Tinder App that is the 2nd Tier Italian banking sector.
If they can convince the ECB that a standalone profile is not only credible but
actually preferred, then the FRESHES will climb like a rat up a drainpipe. In
the H1 report, Monte said that the Freshes got a cautious nod of approval in
the context that there was no change by the ECB in the methodology they
used to calculate CET1. This apparent removal of the Increased Burden
trigger risk thus left only the possible M&A trigger risk as the nuclear downside
- as a reminder our advice received was that this M&A risk was something
of a smokescreen, but I fully understand why it cannot be ignored.
If Monte does proceed with standalone (as I noted on the 10th Aug when the
Fondazione hinted at much the same thing) then this M&A trigger risk is also
thus obviated, and thus no reason to wipe out the bonds.
It still doesn't help us that the Freshes are sitting there right now with a
horrible technical overhang - all those chimeric rumours of a 100m seller or is
it a 50m seller, and 35m has traded or has 50m traded yada yada yada - and
several folk understandably do not want to step in front of a big seller. But
perhaps if these stories gain weight, then first mover advantage might not be a long-term bad thing regardless of the short-term technicals.
 
Ultima modifica:

fidw99

100% perpetual
fidw99 ha scritto:
ho trovato un commento sul freshes di mps...
cerca di chiarire alcuni aspetti di questo strumento oscuro...


Monte to go it alone? Good for FRESHES?
Corriere newspaper is running a story that Monte Paschi may present a
standalone plan to the ECB in September. The plan would need ECB approval
before they can ditch the M&A plan which is the only one clearly endorsed by
the ECB already.
As we noted two weeks ago the H1 numbers were actually OK. I mean we’re not
talking Handelsbanken or UOB, but they were OK and hinted towards stability,
nay even improving fundamentals through to year end. And it also has to be said
that it does not look right now that potential partners are 'liking' Monte much
in the Tinder App that is the 2nd Tier Italian banking sector.
If they can convince the ECB that a standalone profile is not only credible but
actually preferred, then the FRESHES will climb like a rat up a drainpipe. In
the H1 report, Monte said that the Freshes got a cautious nod of approval in
the context that there was no change by the ECB in the methodology they
used to calculate CET1. This apparent removal of the Increased Burden
trigger risk thus left only the possible M&A trigger risk as the nuclear downside
- as a reminder our advice received was that this M&A risk was something
of a smokescreen, but I fully understand why it cannot be ignored.
If Monte does proceed with standalone (as I noted on the 10th Aug when the
Fondazione hinted at much the same thing) then this M&A trigger risk is also
thus obviated, and thus no reason to wipe out the bonds.
It still doesn't help us that the Freshes are sitting there right now with a
horrible technical overhang - all those chimeric rumours of a 100m seller or is
it a 50m seller, and 35m has traded or has 50m traded yada yada yada - and
several folk understandably do not want to step in front of a big seller. But
perhaps if these stories gain weight, then first mover advantage might not be a long-term bad thing regardless of the short-term technicals.
Clicca per allargare...

attenzione che magari il broker che ha scritto questo è un di quelli in lettera :lol::lol::lol:
come al solito può valere tutto e il contrario di tutto
 
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