Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) reports that Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that not only supports Russia’s war effort in Ukraine but also prepares for a potential future war with NATO.
According to the EFIS’s annual intelligence report align with the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) assessments, despite significant losses in Ukraine, Russia aims to increase the size of its army to 1.5 million by 2026. Near Estonia, Russia has formed or reorganised multiple units, such as the 69th and 68th Motor Rifle Divisions.
The report also highlights Russia's efforts to develop and centralize drone production, with annual investments and plans to establish 48 research and production centers.
Russia aims to reduce its dependence on Western technology by relying on component supplies from China, through which the EFIS estimates that up to 80% of authorized Western components are sourced.
The EFIS emphasizes that Russia's military buildup and its pursuit of self-sufficient arms production indicate a strategic shift beyond the current war in Ukraine and pose a potential threat to NATO countries bordering Russia.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has published a report covering the security situation in the Baltic Sea region.
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