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Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
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Hedge fund buys in to Venezuela debt
December 21, 2017, 02:50:00 PM EDT By Reuters
Reuters
By Paul Kilby
NEW YORK, Dec 21 (IFR) - After sitting on the sidelines for much of the year, emerging-markets hedge fund Gramercy has been building a position in Venezuela debt after the recent fall in bond prices.
The asset manager has been raising dedicated capital to invest in the embattled South American country, though until recently it had kept its powder dry.
"But it has become clear that a default will not necessarily lead to a change of government."
Bonds issued by the sovereign as well as state-owned oil company PDVSA have dropped to the low-to-mid 20s since Maduro's call for a debt restructuring in November.
"At that level it started to look interesting," said Koenigsberger, who founded the fund in 1998 and now has about US$6bn in emerging-markets assets under management.
"I am worried about the opportunity costs of not being involved at all."
While the Venezuelan government has vowed to stay current on its debt, it has also deferred payments into the grace periods and beyond - and blamed US sanctions for the delays.
Between the PDVSA and sovereign bonds, the country is late on about US$1.41bn in payments, US$925m of which falls outside the grace periods, according to brokerage Torino Capital.
With both entities missing payment deadlines, rating agencies and a committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) have declared defaults.
In an auction to determine the payout on credit default swaps, PDVSA bonds were valued at just 19.25 cents on the dollar, while Venezuela's sovereign bonds were valued at 24.50 cents.
That was the worst valuation on sovereign defaulted debt in a CDS auction since 2012, when Greece's debt was valued at 21.5 cents. Argentina's debt was put at 39.5 cents in 2014.
"To the extent it goes from 22 to 35-40 we are happy," Koenigsberger said. "But our base case is that it will continue to go down from 22 to the mid-to-low teens."
While bond prices may sink further, he reasons it is better to add some Venezuela risk now before this becomes a crowded trade whereby sourcing the bonds will become more challenging.
The crossover money that invested in Argentina at the height of its battle with holdouts has yet to take positions in Venezuela, partly because those investors suffered losses in Puerto Rico, Koenigsberger said.
But that could change.
"Today about US$150bn of assets under management from non-EM investors that was invested in Argentina is not invested in Venezuela, but if they do it is going to be a food fight," he said.
"Prices might move lower, but I don't want to be competing with them to build a position at the same time."
In Venezuela, Gramercy is taking a somewhat contrarian view to many investors who have favored PDVSA bonds because of the oil company's status as the nation's cash cow and the bonds' lack of collective action clauses.
"We may be in a minority (as) we are only buying bonds of the Republic," he said.
"At the end of the day, Venezuela can't disappear - and even when countries (like the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia) disappeared their debt was assumed by their successor nations."
PDVSA, on the other hand, is a corporate entity that can declare bankruptcy and in theory could become a shell company with no assets during a restructuring.
"I can imagine a scenario where PDVSA is declared bankrupt and you are an unsecured creditor of an entity with no assets," he said.
"Quasi-sovereigns trade wide to sovereigns because they are riskier."
December 21, 2017, 02:50:00 PM EDT By Reuters
By Paul Kilby
NEW YORK, Dec 21 (IFR) - After sitting on the sidelines for much of the year, emerging-markets hedge fund Gramercy has been building a position in Venezuela debt after the recent fall in bond prices.
The asset manager has been raising dedicated capital to invest in the embattled South American country, though until recently it had kept its powder dry.
"But it has become clear that a default will not necessarily lead to a change of government."
Bonds issued by the sovereign as well as state-owned oil company PDVSA have dropped to the low-to-mid 20s since Maduro's call for a debt restructuring in November.
"At that level it started to look interesting," said Koenigsberger, who founded the fund in 1998 and now has about US$6bn in emerging-markets assets under management.
"I am worried about the opportunity costs of not being involved at all."
While the Venezuelan government has vowed to stay current on its debt, it has also deferred payments into the grace periods and beyond - and blamed US sanctions for the delays.
Between the PDVSA and sovereign bonds, the country is late on about US$1.41bn in payments, US$925m of which falls outside the grace periods, according to brokerage Torino Capital.
With both entities missing payment deadlines, rating agencies and a committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) have declared defaults.
In an auction to determine the payout on credit default swaps, PDVSA bonds were valued at just 19.25 cents on the dollar, while Venezuela's sovereign bonds were valued at 24.50 cents.
That was the worst valuation on sovereign defaulted debt in a CDS auction since 2012, when Greece's debt was valued at 21.5 cents. Argentina's debt was put at 39.5 cents in 2014.
"To the extent it goes from 22 to 35-40 we are happy," Koenigsberger said. "But our base case is that it will continue to go down from 22 to the mid-to-low teens."
While bond prices may sink further, he reasons it is better to add some Venezuela risk now before this becomes a crowded trade whereby sourcing the bonds will become more challenging.
The crossover money that invested in Argentina at the height of its battle with holdouts has yet to take positions in Venezuela, partly because those investors suffered losses in Puerto Rico, Koenigsberger said.
But that could change.
"Today about US$150bn of assets under management from non-EM investors that was invested in Argentina is not invested in Venezuela, but if they do it is going to be a food fight," he said.
"Prices might move lower, but I don't want to be competing with them to build a position at the same time."
In Venezuela, Gramercy is taking a somewhat contrarian view to many investors who have favored PDVSA bonds because of the oil company's status as the nation's cash cow and the bonds' lack of collective action clauses.
"We may be in a minority (as) we are only buying bonds of the Republic," he said.
"At the end of the day, Venezuela can't disappear - and even when countries (like the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia) disappeared their debt was assumed by their successor nations."
PDVSA, on the other hand, is a corporate entity that can declare bankruptcy and in theory could become a shell company with no assets during a restructuring.
"I can imagine a scenario where PDVSA is declared bankrupt and you are an unsecured creditor of an entity with no assets," he said.
"Quasi-sovereigns trade wide to sovereigns because they are riskier."
GiveMeLeverage
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La vedo come Gramercy sia sull'evoluzione dei prezzi che sulla diatriba sovereign-pdvsa
FNAIOS
Aò
Miqui
Forumer attivo
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Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
I prezzi possono scendere anche sotto i 15 (un bel default con Maduro riconfermato Presidente che riesce a sistemare la questione oil), come possono ritornare in area 30 (da 20 a 30 è un +50% per il bieco speculatore)
Sulla nota diatriba (tu da anni, ben prima di questi falchetti, sei un teorico del guscio vuoto-Pippo Company-rimarranno solo i tubi arrugginiti
) mi domando perchè, se fosse così semplice, Maduro non abbia smesso prima di onorare il debito PDVSA. Senso del dovere ?So di non sapere , ma sto alla finestra con l'artiglieria.
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Perché non è affatto semplice, ma semplicemente possibile.I prezzi possono scendere anche sotto i 15 (un bel default con Maduro riconfermato Presidente che riesce a sistemare la questione oil), come possono ritornare in area 30 (da 20 a 30 è un +50% per il bieco speculatore)
Sulla nota diatriba (tu da anni, ben prima di questi falchetti, sei un teorico del guscio vuoto-Pippo Company-rimarranno solo i tubi arrugginiti
So di non sapere , ma sto alla finestra con l'artiglieria.