The USD107mm coupon payment for the collateralized PDVSA 20s due on
Friday April 27th is apparently being made, in-line with our expectations, but the
USD840mm amortization due in October will be exponentially more difficult for
the debtor. Venezuela's financing strains are perhaps even harder than previously
thought. According to our local consultant associated with GlobalSourcePartners,
the grace period for the repayment of China's loans to Venezuela actually expired
in November 2017 (as opposed to the previous understanding that it would expire
in May 2018), and it was apparently not renewed. This is consistent with our view
that China has gotten increasingly prudent regarding its exposure to Venezuela,
which it wants to be capped. So in fact, according to our consultant's estimate,
Venezuela has to make a about USD5.3bn amortization payment to China this
year.