Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (8 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
No
Io so come il cane de Mustafa
Fuor di battuta, come mai li tieni pur essendo convinto che caleranno?
(se non ricordo male è una posizione limitata, ma anche pochi soldi persi sono sempre soldi persi...)
sandrino
Forumer storico
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Poco movimento oggi:
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Quando vorrai ce lo dirai...
sandrino
Forumer storico
Quando vorrai ce lo dirai...
L’esposizione è contenuta, anche se per le mie tasche sono comunque soldi.
Stanno lì, potevo mediare ma non l’ho fatto. Come dice policeman il mio amico “miracles happen every day”
Anche se io sto più sul mood Depeche Mode “but not tonight”
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Venezuela’s oil decline reaches new depths
Output has plummeted, companies are nervous and China is no longer lending
John Paul Rathbone in New York
13 hours ago
When Major General Manuel Quevedo became head of Venezuela’s oil industry last November, the former housing minister and national guard chief promised to boost oil output by a million barrels a day via “a complete restructuring” that would root out corruption.
Six months later, though, managers at state oil company PDVSA are quitting en masse, theft has increased, and workers shout in company cafeterias that Mr Quevedo should go. Allies such as Russia and China agree. Meanwhile, western partners such as Total and Chevron are worried, and oil output has fallen an astonishing 23 per cent, or 450,000 bpd.
The decline in the prospects of the world’s largest oil reserves looks set to continue. Venezuelan oil production could fall by another 500,000 bpd this year, analysts believe, boosting global oil prices further. That is especially so if the US imposes sanctions on Caracas after the May 20 presidential election, and foreign joint venture partners continue to struggle or even pull out.
“There is a lack of machines, there is a lack of tools, there is a lack of everything,” Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of French energy company Total, which has operations in Venezuela, told analysts in a call last week. Other executives agree. Schlumberger, the world’s largest oil services company, has described Venezuelan oil production as being in “freefall”.
Mr Quevedo, who like most of PDVSA’S board of directors is a military man faithful to President Nicolás Maduro but without relevant industry experience, recently won sweeping powers in a special decree that allows him to restructure all contracts, almost at will.
One result of that came last week when two Chevron executives were arrested on charges of treason after they reportedly refused to sign over-priced supply contracts. Chevron produces a net 50,000 barrels per day in Venezuela but allow for its majority joint venture partner PDVSA and gross production could be as much as 150,000 bpd.
“Some of that production could now be at risk,” said Luisa Palacios of Medley Global Advisors, a consultancy owned by the FT. “To hit out at Chevron and bite the hand that feeds seems to go in the opposite direction of oil production stabilisation.”
Medley estimates that Venezuelan oil output will drop to 1.1m bpd by the end of the year, from 1.5m currently.
JPMorgan estimates that production will fall to 1.2m bpd by December from 1.5m now, although the risk of its falling below 1m bpd “is very high”.
In addition to hyperinflation and a $70bn bond default that has cut off the country from fresh finance, the drop in oil production to 30-year lows has slashed government revenues, making it ever harder for Mr Maduro’s regime to import basic necessities and deploy the patronage he needs to maintain military and political support.
Caracas has also alienated key allies such as Beijing. Chinese state banks, which extended over $60bn in oil-backed loans between 2007 and 2016, last year made no fresh loans. A two-year grace period on a remaining $19bn debt to China expired last week, Reuters reported, meaning that Venezuelan export revenues will fall further.
Venezuela also owes billions of dollars to Russia and billions more to Kremlin-controlled Rosneft, with the latter debt secured by a 49 per cent stake in Citgo, PDVSA’S US refining subsidiary. Yet last week ConocoPhillips was awarded $2bn by the International Chamber of Commerce for a forced 2007 nationalisation and is now suing PDVSA for payment and seeking to overturn Citgo’s pledge of that stake.
Chinese and Russian representatives are meanwhile pressing Mr Maduro to replace Mr Quevedo, and to deploy measures to quell widespread violence and looting affecting their local workers in Venezuelan oilfields and cities, according to Argus, the specialist energy service.
“Economics is not determinant but it is getting harder for the Maduro government to deploy the resources it needs. It is also feeding into US views on how to up the pressure on Caracas further,” said Robert Kahn, a former IMF staffer who follows the issue closely.
A key test will come on May 20 at presidential elections. The US, EU and 15 of Latin America’s biggest countries have already said they will not recognise the result, given that all but one main opposition candidate has been barred. Mr Maduro’s almost certain victory is widely expected to trigger further US-led sanctions.
As a prelude to that, the US and 15 other countries, including Japan, last month agreed to tighten surveillance of officials allegedly involved in food racketeering. According to the US, corrupt officials use international shell companies to steal as much as 70 per cent of the funds that Mr Maduro uses in a hallmark food programme, called CLAPs.
But a far bigger crunch could come if the US escalates the sanctions to ban purchases of Venezuelan oil, currently running at almost 500,000 bpd.
“A US oil embargo would have a rapid and material impact on Venezuela . . .[but] it seems the real risks will be related more to humanitarian issues and the potential for regional security disruption,” IPD Latin America, a consultancy, wrote in a recent report.
Whether an oil embargo will lead to regime change in Caracas is another matter. Instead, it may only produce a circulation of senior roles within ruling elites. What does seem certain is that Venezuelan oil production will continue to fall.
Output has plummeted, companies are nervous and China is no longer lending
John Paul Rathbone in New York
13 hours ago
When Major General Manuel Quevedo became head of Venezuela’s oil industry last November, the former housing minister and national guard chief promised to boost oil output by a million barrels a day via “a complete restructuring” that would root out corruption.
Six months later, though, managers at state oil company PDVSA are quitting en masse, theft has increased, and workers shout in company cafeterias that Mr Quevedo should go. Allies such as Russia and China agree. Meanwhile, western partners such as Total and Chevron are worried, and oil output has fallen an astonishing 23 per cent, or 450,000 bpd.
The decline in the prospects of the world’s largest oil reserves looks set to continue. Venezuelan oil production could fall by another 500,000 bpd this year, analysts believe, boosting global oil prices further. That is especially so if the US imposes sanctions on Caracas after the May 20 presidential election, and foreign joint venture partners continue to struggle or even pull out.
“There is a lack of machines, there is a lack of tools, there is a lack of everything,” Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of French energy company Total, which has operations in Venezuela, told analysts in a call last week. Other executives agree. Schlumberger, the world’s largest oil services company, has described Venezuelan oil production as being in “freefall”.
Mr Quevedo, who like most of PDVSA’S board of directors is a military man faithful to President Nicolás Maduro but without relevant industry experience, recently won sweeping powers in a special decree that allows him to restructure all contracts, almost at will.
One result of that came last week when two Chevron executives were arrested on charges of treason after they reportedly refused to sign over-priced supply contracts. Chevron produces a net 50,000 barrels per day in Venezuela but allow for its majority joint venture partner PDVSA and gross production could be as much as 150,000 bpd.
“Some of that production could now be at risk,” said Luisa Palacios of Medley Global Advisors, a consultancy owned by the FT. “To hit out at Chevron and bite the hand that feeds seems to go in the opposite direction of oil production stabilisation.”
Medley estimates that Venezuelan oil output will drop to 1.1m bpd by the end of the year, from 1.5m currently.
JPMorgan estimates that production will fall to 1.2m bpd by December from 1.5m now, although the risk of its falling below 1m bpd “is very high”.
In addition to hyperinflation and a $70bn bond default that has cut off the country from fresh finance, the drop in oil production to 30-year lows has slashed government revenues, making it ever harder for Mr Maduro’s regime to import basic necessities and deploy the patronage he needs to maintain military and political support.
Caracas has also alienated key allies such as Beijing. Chinese state banks, which extended over $60bn in oil-backed loans between 2007 and 2016, last year made no fresh loans. A two-year grace period on a remaining $19bn debt to China expired last week, Reuters reported, meaning that Venezuelan export revenues will fall further.
Venezuela also owes billions of dollars to Russia and billions more to Kremlin-controlled Rosneft, with the latter debt secured by a 49 per cent stake in Citgo, PDVSA’S US refining subsidiary. Yet last week ConocoPhillips was awarded $2bn by the International Chamber of Commerce for a forced 2007 nationalisation and is now suing PDVSA for payment and seeking to overturn Citgo’s pledge of that stake.
Chinese and Russian representatives are meanwhile pressing Mr Maduro to replace Mr Quevedo, and to deploy measures to quell widespread violence and looting affecting their local workers in Venezuelan oilfields and cities, according to Argus, the specialist energy service.
“Economics is not determinant but it is getting harder for the Maduro government to deploy the resources it needs. It is also feeding into US views on how to up the pressure on Caracas further,” said Robert Kahn, a former IMF staffer who follows the issue closely.
A key test will come on May 20 at presidential elections. The US, EU and 15 of Latin America’s biggest countries have already said they will not recognise the result, given that all but one main opposition candidate has been barred. Mr Maduro’s almost certain victory is widely expected to trigger further US-led sanctions.
As a prelude to that, the US and 15 other countries, including Japan, last month agreed to tighten surveillance of officials allegedly involved in food racketeering. According to the US, corrupt officials use international shell companies to steal as much as 70 per cent of the funds that Mr Maduro uses in a hallmark food programme, called CLAPs.
But a far bigger crunch could come if the US escalates the sanctions to ban purchases of Venezuelan oil, currently running at almost 500,000 bpd.
“A US oil embargo would have a rapid and material impact on Venezuela . . .[but] it seems the real risks will be related more to humanitarian issues and the potential for regional security disruption,” IPD Latin America, a consultancy, wrote in a recent report.
Whether an oil embargo will lead to regime change in Caracas is another matter. Instead, it may only produce a circulation of senior roles within ruling elites. What does seem certain is that Venezuelan oil production will continue to fall.
Ultima modifica:
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
@Ventodivino
l'ho rimpaginato...
l'ho rimpaginato...
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Ubi maior...