Llukas
Frangar non Flectar
non avevo alcun dubbio su questo, doc, grazie della conferma comunque.
Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (8 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
non avevo alcun dubbio su questo, doc, grazie della conferma comunque.
Llukas
Frangar non Flectar
considerando com'è finita la Grecia mi auguro proprio che i venezuelani non cadano nelle grinfie dei padroni di Mitu... brrrr....
certo per chi gufa da fuori, sperare nello spike greco per salire e poi farsi tutte la salita fino a 100, sarebbe da orgasmo.
d'altra parte cosa non si spererebbe per i soldi...
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
Barclays
Although at a slower pace than we would have expected, Venezuela’s oil production decline continued in June. According to figures published by OPEC, based on direct government communication, production declined just 2k b/d, to 1.53mn b/d; however, data from secondary sources published by the organization show a bigger decline of 48k b/d, to 1.34mn. The increasing difference between the sources (Figure 1) feeds doubts over the actual production level; nonetheless, both show a strong accumulated decline of approximately 600k b/d (c. 30%) over the past year. The risks for production falling below even 1mn b/d by year-end remain and it is our base scenario.
The government seems to have mitigated the effect of the disruption caused by the seizure of PDVSA’s Caribbean assets by Conoco by deviating exports to the US, but this could be just a short-term gain that actually increases the country’s vulnerabilities. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports to the US averaged 587k b/d in June, nearly 100k b/d more than in May, and in the last week of the month deliveries reached 734k b/d, the highest level since August last year (Figure 2). Therefore, in line with our expectations the main disruption has been to deliveries to Asia, which used to go through the Caribbean facilities. However, the increased exposure to the US market implies a larger effect from the existing and potential future sanctions, as well as actions that creditors could take against PDVSA or the sovereign. Potential risks for PDVSA over the upcoming months include the loss of control over Citgo, its subsidiary in the US, were it to miss the payment of the PD20 due in October or as a result of Conoco’s claims[1].
Recent news of possible financing from China does not change our view on the additional downside risk for Venezuela’s oil production. So far, there has not been any meaningful disbursement this year. The news of a loan for USD250mn is insignificant, given the magnitude of the issues the Venezuelan oil industry is facing.[2] The number of operating rigs continues to fall, reaching 26 in June, the lowest level since the 2002 oil strike and implying very low capex levels that stay short of the amount needed to take Venezuela production out of its downward spiral (Figure 3). The authorities also mentioned a USD5bn loan; however, it is not first time the government has made this type of announcement without ever receiving the disbursement of the resources. There was a loan for the same amount that was supposedly approved in 2015 but never disbursed. It possible is that they are talking about the same credit facility. In the best case for the government, these resources would be disbursed gradually through several years, not all at once, nor would it have free control over their use. They would likely go to the projects in which Chinese oil companies are involved and would not allow for an increase in total production, it might help to defend a production floor but it could be as low as 500-600k b/d.
Although at a slower pace than we would have expected, Venezuela’s oil production decline continued in June. According to figures published by OPEC, based on direct government communication, production declined just 2k b/d, to 1.53mn b/d; however, data from secondary sources published by the organization show a bigger decline of 48k b/d, to 1.34mn. The increasing difference between the sources (Figure 1) feeds doubts over the actual production level; nonetheless, both show a strong accumulated decline of approximately 600k b/d (c. 30%) over the past year. The risks for production falling below even 1mn b/d by year-end remain and it is our base scenario.
The government seems to have mitigated the effect of the disruption caused by the seizure of PDVSA’s Caribbean assets by Conoco by deviating exports to the US, but this could be just a short-term gain that actually increases the country’s vulnerabilities. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports to the US averaged 587k b/d in June, nearly 100k b/d more than in May, and in the last week of the month deliveries reached 734k b/d, the highest level since August last year (Figure 2). Therefore, in line with our expectations the main disruption has been to deliveries to Asia, which used to go through the Caribbean facilities. However, the increased exposure to the US market implies a larger effect from the existing and potential future sanctions, as well as actions that creditors could take against PDVSA or the sovereign. Potential risks for PDVSA over the upcoming months include the loss of control over Citgo, its subsidiary in the US, were it to miss the payment of the PD20 due in October or as a result of Conoco’s claims[1].
Recent news of possible financing from China does not change our view on the additional downside risk for Venezuela’s oil production. So far, there has not been any meaningful disbursement this year. The news of a loan for USD250mn is insignificant, given the magnitude of the issues the Venezuelan oil industry is facing.[2] The number of operating rigs continues to fall, reaching 26 in June, the lowest level since the 2002 oil strike and implying very low capex levels that stay short of the amount needed to take Venezuela production out of its downward spiral (Figure 3). The authorities also mentioned a USD5bn loan; however, it is not first time the government has made this type of announcement without ever receiving the disbursement of the resources. There was a loan for the same amount that was supposedly approved in 2015 but never disbursed. It possible is that they are talking about the same credit facility. In the best case for the government, these resources would be disbursed gradually through several years, not all at once, nor would it have free control over their use. They would likely go to the projects in which Chinese oil companies are involved and would not allow for an increase in total production, it might help to defend a production floor but it could be as low as 500-600k b/d.
junior63
Forumer storico
Juan Manuel Santos
@JuanManSantos
2h
Para contribuir a la solución de la crisis en Venezuela, le pido al presidente Trump @POTUS que le solicite a Putin dejar de apoyar al régimen de Maduro.
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Venezuela: Préstamo irá a empresas “mixtas” de China en la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco
The "Cámara Boliviana de Hidrocarburos y Energía" is a representative institution of the hydrocarbon sector in Bolivia. Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
Venezuela: Loan will go to "mixed" enterprises in China in the Orinoco Oil Belt
The Chinese Development Bank's disbursement of $5 billion to Venezuela will go primarily to the Asian giant's "mixed" companies operating in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The resources would be used to increase the production of the companies by about 150,000 barrels/day.
Source: Panorama
Sources familiar with the energy sector and within PDVSA assured this newspaper that the resources will be directed primarily to "Chinese oil-related companies".
Currently, there are three large Asian consortiums operating in Venezuela: the National Petroleum Corporation of China (CNPC), which operates in five joint ventures, mostly in the Orinoco Belt; in addition to Sinopec and Petrochina Internacional.
The source assured that "with around 10 billion dollars, they would increase oil production by 300,000 barrels per day".
The recent announcement of a $5 billion loan from China to the country seeks to give a new "puff of oxygen" to PDVSA, the state company that is currently experiencing the most drastic drop in its production in the last 30 years. The latest data from the Opec indicate that the company's pumping rate barely exceeds 1.4 million barrels/day.
"We are about to sign three or four new financing agreements that will have a very positive impact on the increase in production in the Orinoco Oil Belt," said Venezuelan Economy Minister Simón Zerpa, who is visiting Beijing, referring to his country's largest oil reservoir, without giving any further details.
China, the biggest financial ally of the Venezuelan revolution, stopped three years ago the delivery of funds to the government of Nicolás Maduro to finance development projects, under an oil payment scheme agreed with the late socialist president Hugo Chávez.
Experts in the field pointed out to this newspaper that the resources of the Asian giant arrived at the "best time", due to the financial sanctions that Washington imposed on the Venezuelan government last May.
On that occasion, President Trump signed an executive order to limit the Maduro government's ability to sell state assets, including public debt and bonds of the Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA, in an attempt to further restrict its financing capacity. Nine months ago, Washington also banned the U.S. financial system from buying bonds and debt from the Venezuelan government and the Venezuelan oil company, preventing banks from granting them new loans.
"These resources will undoubtedly serve to give PDVSA, a company that is going through its worst times: high debts, financial inability to cancel its bonds, a drop in production and international lawsuits that endanger its assets, especially those located in Aruba, Curaçao and North America. China is making a pretty risky move by trying to challenge Trump's sanctions against Maduro," said energy analyst Jose Alejandro Martinez.
He pointed out that "it has been very difficult for PDVSA, in the last six months, to obtain external financing in the short term. Russia has not made any more loans in the last year and recently accepted a restructuring of its debt. Of the resources announced by China, no one knows how the form of payment will be, what will pay for more oil, I find it difficult because production is still in free fall".
José Sangronis, an energy analyst, told PANORAMA that "it would be good if part of this Chinese loan were invested in western Venezuela. There is potential to increase production by 1 million barrels/day, but the resources are always directed to the Belt".
Last month, the Minister for Petroleum, Manuel Quevedo, announced a recovery plan for 23,319 wells with a production potential of 1,426,000 barrels (1.4 mmbd). Of the total number of wells, 13,435 are located in western Venezuela and the rest in the east.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
The "Cámara Boliviana de Hidrocarburos y Energía" is a representative institution of the hydrocarbon sector in Bolivia. Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
Venezuela: Loan will go to "mixed" enterprises in China in the Orinoco Oil Belt
The Chinese Development Bank's disbursement of $5 billion to Venezuela will go primarily to the Asian giant's "mixed" companies operating in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The resources would be used to increase the production of the companies by about 150,000 barrels/day.
Source: Panorama
Sources familiar with the energy sector and within PDVSA assured this newspaper that the resources will be directed primarily to "Chinese oil-related companies".
Currently, there are three large Asian consortiums operating in Venezuela: the National Petroleum Corporation of China (CNPC), which operates in five joint ventures, mostly in the Orinoco Belt; in addition to Sinopec and Petrochina Internacional.
The source assured that "with around 10 billion dollars, they would increase oil production by 300,000 barrels per day".
The recent announcement of a $5 billion loan from China to the country seeks to give a new "puff of oxygen" to PDVSA, the state company that is currently experiencing the most drastic drop in its production in the last 30 years. The latest data from the Opec indicate that the company's pumping rate barely exceeds 1.4 million barrels/day.
"We are about to sign three or four new financing agreements that will have a very positive impact on the increase in production in the Orinoco Oil Belt," said Venezuelan Economy Minister Simón Zerpa, who is visiting Beijing, referring to his country's largest oil reservoir, without giving any further details.
China, the biggest financial ally of the Venezuelan revolution, stopped three years ago the delivery of funds to the government of Nicolás Maduro to finance development projects, under an oil payment scheme agreed with the late socialist president Hugo Chávez.
Experts in the field pointed out to this newspaper that the resources of the Asian giant arrived at the "best time", due to the financial sanctions that Washington imposed on the Venezuelan government last May.
On that occasion, President Trump signed an executive order to limit the Maduro government's ability to sell state assets, including public debt and bonds of the Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA, in an attempt to further restrict its financing capacity. Nine months ago, Washington also banned the U.S. financial system from buying bonds and debt from the Venezuelan government and the Venezuelan oil company, preventing banks from granting them new loans.
"These resources will undoubtedly serve to give PDVSA, a company that is going through its worst times: high debts, financial inability to cancel its bonds, a drop in production and international lawsuits that endanger its assets, especially those located in Aruba, Curaçao and North America. China is making a pretty risky move by trying to challenge Trump's sanctions against Maduro," said energy analyst Jose Alejandro Martinez.
He pointed out that "it has been very difficult for PDVSA, in the last six months, to obtain external financing in the short term. Russia has not made any more loans in the last year and recently accepted a restructuring of its debt. Of the resources announced by China, no one knows how the form of payment will be, what will pay for more oil, I find it difficult because production is still in free fall".
José Sangronis, an energy analyst, told PANORAMA that "it would be good if part of this Chinese loan were invested in western Venezuela. There is potential to increase production by 1 million barrels/day, but the resources are always directed to the Belt".
Last month, the Minister for Petroleum, Manuel Quevedo, announced a recovery plan for 23,319 wells with a production potential of 1,426,000 barrels (1.4 mmbd). Of the total number of wells, 13,435 are located in western Venezuela and the rest in the east.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Jsvmax79
Forumer storico
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
L'articolo di El Universal al quale si fa riferimento:
Pdvsa aclaró que bombeo del país es de 1,7 millones barriles diarios
PDVSA clarified that the country's pumping rate is 1.7 million barrels per day
OPEC reported that local production fell in June to 1.34 (mdb)
IVONNE AYALA
15/07/2018 05:30 am
Caracas: Venezuela's crude oil production amounts to 1,735,000 barrels per day, if we take into account 1,570,000 barrels of heavy oil, 90,000 barrels of gas liquids and 70,000 barrels of condensed products, explained yesterday Ángel González, Venezuela's governor to OPEC.
Gonzalez explained that the organization was reported in June to extract 1,520,000 barrels of oil a day but that this does not mean that this has been the nation's total production.
In the company of the Minister of Petroleum and president of PDVSA Manuel Quevedo, Gonzalez considered as untrue, those reports from some media that report a more pronounced decline in national extraction. Coincidentally, the latest OPEC report noted that in the sixth month of the year, Venezuela's production continued to fall and reported that it stood at 1.34 million barrels per day.
This Saturday, general Quevedo met with vice-presidents and directors of the state oil company to evaluate the evolution of the plans that are being put forward to increase the country's extraction by one million barrels a day.
Quevedo answered the ominous voices that determine the agony of the national industry and emphasized that they continue to work to achieve the increase in pumping that is considered one of the most significant challenges of the oil company.
He therefore announced that a Plan of Incentives and Benefits is being prepared to promote work internally, and reward workers for their efforts. He indicated that for every 100,000 bpd of increased oil production, workers and employees will be duly rewarded.
Demand continues to rise
The demand for oil in the world will exceed the record of 100 million barrels a day, according to estimates published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its latest report.
Specifically, the group forecasts that the planet's requirements will rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (MBD) (1.7%) with respect to the current year, so that this figure will stand at 100.3 MBD.
The organization confirmed the forecast it had projected in its May report that world demand for crude oil would increase by 1.65 MBD this year, bringing it to an average of 98.85 million barrels per day.
As explained, this increase is based on the world economy's growth expectations of 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019.
The organization ratified that its members are able and prepared to guarantee market stability through sufficient supplies of oil. "OPEC will continue to have sufficient supply to support market stability," emphasizes the report, which reveals that OPEC member countries produced 32.33 million barrels per day.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Ultima modifica:
junior63
Forumer storico
'El Universal', un cambio de dueño bajo sospecha
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Magari dopo aver letto questo avrete un' idea più chiara sull' articolo postato sopra
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Magari dopo aver letto questo avrete un' idea più chiara sull' articolo postato sopra