Ventodivino
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The sovereign debt legend (manco fosse Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) è stato oltremodo chiaro.
Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
The sovereign debt legend (manco fosse Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) è stato oltremodo chiaro.
Ventodivino
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Jsvmax79
Forumer storico
Rendivalores
@Rendivalores
·
3h
Los gobiernos ruso y venezolano abordarán la próxima semana en Moscú un posible aumento del suministro de petróleo venezolano a Rusia, indicó hoy el ministro ruso de Energía, Alexandr Nóvak
Ventodivino
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Rendivalores
@Rendivalores
·
3h
Los gobiernos ruso y venezolano abordarán la próxima semana en Moscú un posible aumento del suministro de petróleo venezolano a Rusia, indicó hoy el ministro ruso de Energía, Alexandr Nóvak
Molto interessante. (questa la reuters Russian minister to discuss ways to boost Venezuela's oil exports | Reuters )
Vediamo se è la solita panzanata. O se c'è dell'altro.
L'aumento non dovrebbe essere solo "possibile", ma molto molto cospicuo.
In questo momento a quanto ammontano le importazioni di oil verso la Russia (tolto l'oil che il Venezuela dà alla Russia come PIK) ?
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Jsvmax79
Forumer storico
Giuliano Granato
@Giul_Granato
·
3h
#Guaidò, autoproclamato presidente del #Venezuela, in due mesi ha viaggiato all'estero 91 volte, per una spesa complessiva stimata in 160.000$.
Ventodivino
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A New Proposal for Restructuring Venezuelan Debt
posted by Mitu Gulati
The Venezuelan debt crisis has dragged on for so very long now that there are literally dozens of proposals out in the public domain (aka ssrn.com) on how Venezuela should do its restructuring. Given how quickly the situation on the ground is changing, the plausibility of these various proposals also has been moving with great speed.
A new and interesting one just showed up today from Daniel Osorio of Andean Capital (available here). Daniel is someone who knows the Venezuelan situation inside out and has a lot of experience distressed debt workouts. I don't think we agree on the optimal way to peel this onion, but Daniel is super smart and I always take his views seriously. His proposal, as I understand it, is to do an debt exchange where investors are given what he calls Patient Capital Bonds. Basically, investors are being asked to be patient and cooperate with the Venezuelan government by giving them a lot more time to repay them (much more than say the proposals for a Venezuelan reprofiling (which would just buy the time for the IMF to do an estimate of the economic situation) have been asking for). The benefit to investors, that Daniel is positing will attract them to his proposals, is that there is a big potential upside if Venezuela is able to get economically healthy.
A couple of questions though. First, is Daniel being unduly optimistic in assuming that the holdout problem can be easily solved? (after all the amount of litigation on the defaulted debt is increasing on a daily basis and specialist holdout firms are the opposite of "patient" capital). Second, can Venezuela get back to health in a reasonable amount of time without imposing significant cuts on the principal obligations on its debt stock? (maybe, if the stretch out of payments is long enough, but that then brings its own problems in terms of getting investors to be that patient).
I do agree with Daniel though that stretching out payments will ultimately have to be part of the equation and that whatever mechanism that is used will need to ensure that the majority of creditors come in voluntarily (that is, the non holdouts). I also agree with him that the post-Saddam restructuring of Iraqi debt has lessons to teach us.
Here is the abstract of Daniel's nice and short paper (six pages):
Regime change in Venezuela is imminent. The transition may take longer than what most Venezuelans would like, but when it occurs it will be faster than most expected. The challenges of the reconstruction of Venezuela and its economy will be more similar to those faced by a country after a vicious war or a violent natural disaster than the aftermath of an economic and/or political crisis. First and foremost, this reconstruction must start by addressing Venezuela’s urgent humanitarian needs. This initial phase of the normalization of Venezuela must be done in a collaborative fashion between the private and public sector as well as Venezuelans and the international community. However, this spirit of collaboration must not end there, but continue in order to meet the economic challenges that Venezuela will face.
He also talked about this on the telly, on Bloomberg News.
Credit Slips
posted by Mitu Gulati
The Venezuelan debt crisis has dragged on for so very long now that there are literally dozens of proposals out in the public domain (aka ssrn.com) on how Venezuela should do its restructuring. Given how quickly the situation on the ground is changing, the plausibility of these various proposals also has been moving with great speed.
A new and interesting one just showed up today from Daniel Osorio of Andean Capital (available here). Daniel is someone who knows the Venezuelan situation inside out and has a lot of experience distressed debt workouts. I don't think we agree on the optimal way to peel this onion, but Daniel is super smart and I always take his views seriously. His proposal, as I understand it, is to do an debt exchange where investors are given what he calls Patient Capital Bonds. Basically, investors are being asked to be patient and cooperate with the Venezuelan government by giving them a lot more time to repay them (much more than say the proposals for a Venezuelan reprofiling (which would just buy the time for the IMF to do an estimate of the economic situation) have been asking for). The benefit to investors, that Daniel is positing will attract them to his proposals, is that there is a big potential upside if Venezuela is able to get economically healthy.
A couple of questions though. First, is Daniel being unduly optimistic in assuming that the holdout problem can be easily solved? (after all the amount of litigation on the defaulted debt is increasing on a daily basis and specialist holdout firms are the opposite of "patient" capital). Second, can Venezuela get back to health in a reasonable amount of time without imposing significant cuts on the principal obligations on its debt stock? (maybe, if the stretch out of payments is long enough, but that then brings its own problems in terms of getting investors to be that patient).
I do agree with Daniel though that stretching out payments will ultimately have to be part of the equation and that whatever mechanism that is used will need to ensure that the majority of creditors come in voluntarily (that is, the non holdouts). I also agree with him that the post-Saddam restructuring of Iraqi debt has lessons to teach us.
Here is the abstract of Daniel's nice and short paper (six pages):
Regime change in Venezuela is imminent. The transition may take longer than what most Venezuelans would like, but when it occurs it will be faster than most expected. The challenges of the reconstruction of Venezuela and its economy will be more similar to those faced by a country after a vicious war or a violent natural disaster than the aftermath of an economic and/or political crisis. First and foremost, this reconstruction must start by addressing Venezuela’s urgent humanitarian needs. This initial phase of the normalization of Venezuela must be done in a collaborative fashion between the private and public sector as well as Venezuelans and the international community. However, this spirit of collaboration must not end there, but continue in order to meet the economic challenges that Venezuela will face.
He also talked about this on the telly, on Bloomberg News.
Credit Slips
Ventodivino
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Se ingaggiano Buchheit la sua idea l'ha già espressa più volte (ribadendola sopra in modo esauriente).
Immagino però su questo forum a molti piacerà di più la "soluzione" di Mr. Osorio .
Immagino però su questo forum a molti piacerà di più la "soluzione" di Mr. Osorio .
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