Deutsche Bank
Venezuela: PDVSA 2? Market likely overreacted. On Wednesday morning, Bloomberg news reported that "Venezuela’s constituent assembly is weighing a proposal to replace PDVSA with a new national energy company (CVE) that would inherit everything except PDVSA’s debt", citing Argus Media reports (which in turn cited David Paravisini, who chairs the assembly’s petroleum, gas, energy and water subcommittee). The report further suggested that "Under the proposal, CVE would absorb all of PDVSA’s administrative, operational and physical assets, including Citgo, but not its liabilities that include debt owed to bondholders, joint venture partners, suppliers and other creditors." This news rekindled a multi-year old idea (and concerns of some market participants) that Venezuela might go this route which bodes poorly for the recovery value for PDVSA bonds. PDVSA bonds fell sharply, falling about 3pts on average, on the back of the report. Sovereign bonds were also affected, falling by 1 - 1.5pts on the day.
For the record, we have always been skeptical about this idea. We believe this is even less likely to materialize in the near term. First, if it happened, it would have conflicted with the established signal that PDVSA will make PDVSA 20s's amortization payment due on the 27th in order to avoid a foreclosure on CITGO (even if - in our view - it would likely lose CITGO anyway after the payment). Second, this replacement could have negative impacts on joint ventures, the source of more than 50% of the oil production in Venezuela currently (some estimate puts it higher than 60%). Finally, we struggle to find any tangible benefits for Venezuela to do this at the moment - not like PDVSA would avoid paying any debt it otherwise has to make. We strongly believe this was likely something that got taken out of context, and believe bond prices should - at least partially - retrace the loss incurred on Wednesday.