Analisi sugli effetti dell'esproprio di Repsol
Barclay's non la vede poi così male...
https://www.adr.com/Markets/GlobalNewsStory?docID=1-ON20120419000797-03U3CB15MV3OEE62G9D0O4J92K
YPF Grab Shouldn't Crimp Argentine Debt Payments--Report
7:47 PM ET on Thursday, April 19, 2012
BUENOS AIRES -(Dow Jones)- Argentina's expropriation of the oil and gas company YPF SA (YPF, YPFD.BA) shouldn't affect the country's capacity to make sovereign-debt payments, Barclays said in a research note Thursday.
Argentine President Cristina Kirchner this week asked Congress to expropriate YPF in a dispute over investment in exploration and production. Congress is set to approve the move soon.
"In our view, the development is a reminder of the often unpredictable and improvisatory nature of the Kirchner government. We see no reasonable basis for the expropriation," Barclays said.
Still, Barclays said "markets have overreacted" and that the "nationalisation has not damaged the sovereign's credit to the extent that we would recommend throwing in the towel."
As a result, Barclays recommends that investors remain involved with Argentine credit.
Barclays said YPF's expropriation won't likely affect economic growth much and that the risk of trade sanctions from Spain or the U.S. is low.
"We recommend that investors remain engaged but switch into the short end of the curve, which still offers large carry and a more attractive risk-reward profile," the report said.
Barclays continued: "In particular, we favour the Boden 15s and the Global 17s at this stage. While the Bonar 17s are cheaper on a relative basis, we are concerned about the potential for ANSES having to increase its sales of these bonds given Argentina's need to raise capital."
The report also recommended Argentina's so-called GDP warrants, or debt attached to economic growth.
Barclay's is forecasting 4.7% growth this year.
"We do not think the administration will underreport GDP growth in 2012 to avoid paying the GDP warrant," Barclays said.
Crescita 4.7% nel 2012 e default?
Mah...

E allora noi, Spagna, Portogallo siamo strafalliti.