Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond

Argentina market rout pummels Brazilian hedge fund - Reuters


Argentina market rout pummels Brazilian hedge fund

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A Brazilian hedge fund was among the casualties of Monday’s market rout on Argentine assets, with at least 75 percent of its equity exposure suffering losses between 25% and 59%.

Newfoundland Capital Management, based in Sao Paulo, was hit with a loss on paper of around $55 million, as its bets on four Argentine companies in agribusiness, natural gas, energy distribution and telecommunications imploded.

According to regulatory filings, just over 50% of Newfoundland’s portfolio is split in New York- and Buenos Aires-traded shares of agribusiness Cresud (CRESY.O)(CRES.BA), stocks that fell on Monday 38% and 25%, respectively.

U.S.-traded shares of electricity distributor Edenor (EDN.N), which plummeted 59% on Monday, amount to over 16% of Newfoundland’s portfolio.

The one-day paper losses in those two companies alone amount to nearly $50 million. The remaining loss comes from Newfoundland’s exposure to Telecom Argentina ADRs (TEO.N), which was down 33% on Monday, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS.N), which fell 48%.

The most recent regulatory filings, from last May, list holdings as of March 31. Newfoundland did not return calls or emails seeking comment or confirmation of any material change in its positions since. The Argentine local filing in Cresud shares is as of June 2018.

Previous filings show the fund has mostly been building up its positions in the ADRs since at least mid-2018. In the case of Nasdaq-traded Cresud shares, a position of 1.5 million shares from the third quarter of 2017 has grown in every quarter but one since, and was built up to 5.8 million shares.

Four of the five stocks in Newfoundland’s portfolio that tumbled on Monday were up between 0.8% and 8.8% each on Tuesday, while Edenor was down another 3.5%.

Disclosure of stock holdings as of the end of June, including Argentine ADRs, are due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week. The filings will show how exposed these and other funds were as of June.

Current filings show billionaire investor David Martinez’s Fintech Telecom LLC held 30.8% of Telecom Argentina as of mid-April. That position would have suffered a one-day loss of over $132 million on Monday.

Large bond holders also figure among those seeing losses from Monday. Franklin Templeton’s flagship $33 billion Global Bond Fund (TPINX.O), which has 3.64% in Argentina and is overseen by Michael Hasenstab, was down 1.79% on Monday alone -the worst performing fund in its category, according to Morningstar data.

Monday’s market rout in Argentina followed results from a primary election that dealt a blow to market-friendly president Mauricio Macri’s re-election chances in October. Argentina’s peso and dollar-denominated bonds fell again on Tuesday.
 
LATIN AMERICA ECONOMICS
Argentina: the ways that default could play out
Latin America Economics Update
14 August 2019 3 min read
WRITTEN BY EDWARD GLOSSOP
With Argentine markets continuing to come under pressure, a sovereign debt default is increasingly likely. We think this is most likely to come in response to a request from the IMF, probably before year-end. This would result in smoother debt restructuring talks and higher recovery values on bonds. But a messier default, entailing more prolonged restructuring talks and lower recovery values, is a real possibility.


........attendo mi trasmettono la pass word.

Mi chiedo se questi sono così attendibili ...
 
Ma questi sono cosi attendibili?

1) Goldman Sachs a Dicembre 2018 prevedeva per quest'anno 4 rate-hike...Ora è pronta per i Fed Funds negativi. Sappiamo tutti i limiti dei forecasters.

2) A me interessano i numerelli che mettono giù, poi le valutazioni ciascuno le deve fare in proprio...Per ora sono gli unici che vanno oltre le solite frasi di circostanza.
 
1) Goldman Sachs a Dicembre 2018 prevedeva per quest'anno 4 rate-hike...Ora è pronta per i Fed Funds negativi. Sappiamo tutti i limiti dei forecasters.

2) A me interessano i numerelli che mettono giù, poi le valutazioni ciascuno le deve fare in proprio...Per ora sono gli unici che vanno oltre le solite frasi di circostanza.

...vorra' che chi vuole rimane dentro chi non vuole vende in perdita e cerca di rifarsi della perdita.
 
1) Goldman Sachs a Dicembre 2018 prevedeva per quest'anno 4 rate-hike...Ora è pronta per i Fed Funds negativi. Sappiamo tutti i limiti dei forecasters.

2) A me interessano i numerelli che mettono giù, poi le valutazioni ciascuno le deve fare in proprio...Per ora sono gli unici che vanno oltre le solite frasi di circostanza.


Allo stato attuale hanno riserve per 66 miliardi. Come indicato da capital economics.Vediamo sè a settembre l'FMI rilascia l'ennesima tranche come sempre anticiperà o seguirà un commento.
 

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