Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (1 Viewer)

[tommy271]

Irish economy slips further ahead of harsh cuts


By Padraic Halpin
DUBLIN | Fri Oct 1, 2010 11:29am BST



DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's brief economic upturn showed further signs of petering out on Friday, with weak manufacturing data suggesting the country could be headed back into recession just as it readies harsher budget cuts.
The NCB Purchasing Managers' Index, which measures the Irish manufacturing sector, fell sharply to 48.4 from 51.1 in August, dipping below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for the first time since February.


Dublin said on Thursday that it faces a bill of up to 50 billion euros (43.3 billion pounds) to clean up its banks, resulting in tougher than expected budgets for the next four years.
Ireland officially exited two years of recession in the first quarter of 2010 before shrinking again in the following three months. Friday's PMI data suggested the third quarter did not look much better.


Only a growing economy will generate the tax revenues Ireland needs, alongside spending cuts and tax hikes, to reduce a debt mountain that the bank bailout will swell to 99 percent of GDP this year from 25 percent prior to the crisis.
The rescue will also blow the budget deficit out to 32 percent of economic output this year, more than 10 times the EU's 3 percent cap and by far the worst in the union.


OUTSIDE HELP?


So far Ireland has managed to calm investor fears it will go the way of Greece, which suffered a debt meltdown that forced it to turn to its European Union partners and the International Monetary Fund for help.
IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a German newspaper he does not expect the euro rescue fund to be activated for Ireland, adding his voice to a clutch of policymakers who made the same prediction the previous day.


But data from Spain also heaped more pressure on lagging economies on the euro zone's periphery on Friday, as manufacturing activity there also shrank for the first time in seven months, a day after unveiled it an austerity-driven 2011 budget.
Ireland's national debt agency said there was no impending liquidity crisis, cancelling all bond auctions for the rest of the year.


The National Treasury Management Agency's (NTMA) said it would re-enter the debt market "fairly early" in 2011 and that cancelling October and November's auctions had been well received.
"From our contacts with the market, we are getting the feedback that there is no problem with this and it is viewed as a sensible and pragmatic step to take," Oliver Whelan told national broadcaster RTE.


The premium investors demand to hold Irish 10-year debt over benchmark German bunds narrowed again to 430 bps on Friday, down from a euro lifetime high of 475 bps earlier this week.
Ireland must next unveil a four-year budget plan, promised in November, and push through more than 3 billion euros of new cuts a month later.


There have been few major street protests or strikes against the austerity measures, yet Prime Minister Brian Cowen's political room of manoeuvre has been rapidly diminishing.
An Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll on Friday showed 61 percent of voters think Cowen should resign before elections which are due in 2012 but likely to be held before then.
Cowen may only have a few months left to cede to their demands with his wafer-thin majority in parliament almost certain to be wiped out once by-elections are held to fill three lower-house seats in the first four months of next year.

 

[tommy271]

Ue accoglie con favore piano Irlanda su Anglo-Irish - Almunia

venerdì 1 ottobre 2010 16:51


DUBLINO, 1 ottobre (Reuters) - La Commissione Europea vede con favore che l'Irlanda chieda ai detentori di obbligazioni subordinate in Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] di condividere parte dei costi di smantellamento dell'istituto di credito nazionalizzato. Lo ha dichiarato il commissario europeo alla concorrenza, Joaquin Almunia.
"E' in linea con i principi della Commissione sulla condivisione dell'onere giacché viene incontro al rischio morale e limita la quantità degli aiuti, con benefici per i contribuenti", ha detto Almunia in una nota.
Il commissario ha detto che la ristrutturazione di Anglo Irish in una sorta di "bad bank", che non eroga prestiti, e di una banca di finanziamenti viene incontro alle preoccupazioni sulla concorrenza.
"Una volta che la Commissione riceverà i dettagli del piano, procederà rapidamente a prendere una decisione finale".

 

[tommy271]

Una ampia visione della questione irlandese:

L'Irlanda sta male ma non infetta - Il Sole 24 ORE


Un commento de "La Stampa": La tigre di Dublino non ruggisce più

http://www.lastampa.it/redazione/cmsSezioni/economia/201010articoli/59050girata.asp

 

[tommy271]

CRISI: BINI SMAGHI, DEFICIT/PIL IRLANDA PUO' RIENTRARE ENTRO 2014

(ASCA)

Firenze, 1 ott - ''L'abbattimento del deficit/pil per l'Irlanda dal 32% riscontrato dopo il salvataggio di Anglo Irish Bank al 3% entro il 2014 e' possibile''.

Lo ha affermato Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, membro del board della Banca centrale europea, a margine di un convegno promosso a Firenze dalla Federazione nazionale Cavalieri del lavoro.

''Altri Paesi - ha aggiunto - hanno dimostrato che e' fattibile.

Bisogna dare fiducia ai mercati, e mettere subito in atto le misure che convincano i mercati che, nonostante il dato di quest'anno, l'anno prossimo si rientra rapidamente''.

 

[tommy271]

Ireland eyes €4 billion 2011 budget savings - reports


DUBLIN | Sun Oct 3, 2010 10:02am BST



DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's government will target savings of 4 billion euros (3.5 billion pounds) in the 2011 budget as it seeks to get its fiscal crisis under control, two Sunday newspapers reported.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said this week he would need to go above an initial target of 3 billion euros in savings from next year's budget and would unveil a four-year fiscal plan in November after estimating the cost of saving the banking system could top 50 billion euros.
Citing unnamed sources, The Sunday Business Post reported Lenihan would need a 4 billion euros package for the 2011 plan, which will be unveiled on Dec 7.
The Sunday Tribune, also citing unnamed sources, said savings of up to 4.5 billion euros would be needed in Ireland's fourth austerity budget in two years.
The Sunday Tribune also reported that adjustments of at least 6-7 billion euros would be needed in the following three budgets.
No one from the Department of Finance was immediately available to comment.

 

[tommy271]

Why we need to follow the Irish and restructure our 'zombie' banks

In Dublin, early last Wednesday morning, a protester rammed a cement truck – with the words "TOXIC BANK" emblazoned on the side – into the ornate iron gates of the Irish Parliament.



By Liam Halligan
Published: 8:55PM BST 02 Oct 2010


The following day, Brian Cowen's government unveiled its plan to pump an additional €6.4bn into Anglo Irish Bank – the real-estate lender at the heart of the Republic's property meltdown. Having been nationalised in January 2009, the total cost of rescuing Anglo Irish could now be almost €30bn.


An additional €3bn capital injection into the much bigger Allied Irish Bank was also announced last week, with the state becoming majority shareholder in Ireland's second-largest lender. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also admitted that even more rescue finance could be needed under a "severe hypothetical stress scenario" if Irish property prices fall further, and then fail to recover.


In sum, Ireland's bank rescue, we now know, could cost this relatively small country an eye-watering €50bn – more than a quarter of total annual economic output. So huge are the immediate bail-out costs that the 2010 Irish budget deficit is now on course to hit an astonishing 32pc of GDP – 10-times bigger than eurozone member guidelines.

These are absolutely ghastly numbers, of course. But guess what? The fact that they're now in the public domain, that the government forced the banking sector to "fess up" its losses, meant that Irish sovereign debt rallied after ministers made their move. That's right – borrowing costs fell, a lot, as the all-important bond market signalled its approval at Dublin's determination to impose "full disclosure".

Back in 2009, Cowen and his team were widely praised as they took genuinely decisive action to get Ireland's fiscal house in order. The previous year, the Celtic Tiger had been severely wounded – after Ireland's runaway housing market and related construction boom went bang, the country enduring an economic implosion. This was made worse by the pound's fall against the euro, which meant Ireland lost competitiveness vis-a-vis the UK – still its biggest trading partner.

All this caused an unprecedented 7.5pc contraction in Irish economic output last year. Excluding profits made by the numerous multinational companies operating in Ireland, the drop was an even more shocking 11.3pc. As the economy went into a tailspin, borrowing costs surged, preventing the investment needed for recovery and turning bad debts even worse. As a result, Ireland's budget deficit soared to 14.3pc of GDP last year.

Cowen responded by imposing a one-off fiscal squeeze equivalent to around 6pc of GDP – through a combination of pay restraints, tax rises and curtailed public spending. The Irish were implementing in 12 months cuts roughly equivalent to those which British ministers insisted would take four years.

Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank President, called Ireland a "role model" urging other countries to "face up to their problems, as the Irish so clearly have done – something that's now widely recognized". Sure enough, by April this year, the "spread" the bond markets charge to hold Irish 10-year debt over the German "bund" equivalent was down to 139 basis points, less than half as wide as the year before.

Since then, this spread has widened once more, reaching 450bp prior to Cowen's announcement.
Ireland is now being presented in a very different light. As anti-austerity protests raged across Europe last week, trade unionists argued that Dublin's predicament shows what happens if governments "fail to support the economy", by piling debt on ever more sovereign debt.

In the UK, senior Labour politicians, who earlier in their careers showed signs of economic literacy, are peddling the same economic snake oil. Ireland shows the "extreme dangers of austerity", they say. That's the message, of course, they must deliver to their public-sector union paymasters – manipulative, selfish men who represent less than a fifth of the British workforce. Senior Labour figures should know better – and they do! They've simply allowed their intellect to be trumped by their ambition.

A closer look at Ireland highlights the absurdity of what trade unionists are now saying. Ireland isn't Greece. Dublin hasn't tapped the European Union's €750bn rescue fund and last week's announcement makes it less likely it will do so – which is why 10-year sovereign bond yields fell more than a quarter percentage point, from 449bp to 422bp.

Yes, in recent months, Ireland's "bund spread" has widened – but so has that of all eurozone "peripheral" nations. This has been partly due to Germany's economic recovery – which has lowered yields on Berlin's sovereign debt – but also been because the eurozone has so far resisted printing money on the same grotesque scale as the US and UK. That's kept the euro relatively strong, making it even harder for small export-driven member states such as Ireland to recover.

A lot of the reason Ireland's new headline fiscal numbers look so bad is that they're far more honest than equivalent data being presented elsewhere – in the UK, for instance. Ireland's gross government debt is now expected to rise from 64pc to 98pc of GDP this year. That's not high by international standards, but the increase is obviously sharp.

Having said that, because Ireland has large cash balances in its National Pension Reserve Fund – net government debt will actually be around 70pc of GDP, not much more than in the UK. Consider, also, that in contrast to Ireland, the vast majority of Britain's massive public sector pension liabilities are unfunded and off-balance sheet.

Ireland's annual deficit figure – projected to balloon to 32pc of GDP – also warrants examination. This number actually
includes the cost of the bank bail-outs, unlike its UK equivalent. Labour buried the cost of the RBS and Lloyds capital injections, not including them in the published deficit figures, a convention the Tories look set to continue. If Ireland followed the same methodology, its 2010 deficit would be 11pc of GDP, similar to the UK.

British ministers argue that bail-outs are "financial transactions" from which the government may eventually reap a return. So they shouldn't be included in the deficit. Such a position not only undermines the UK Government's fiscal credibility – effectively "banking" a return before it has been made. It also means the UK Government is petrified of taking the necessary steps to force banks to disclose their smouldering off balance-sheet liabilities, write-off losses and engage in root-and-branch restructuring – as that would cause the public finances to collapse.

Yet, as Japan's experience shows, such restructuring needs to happen, lest Britain's new "zombie banks" drain the life-blood out of the economy for years to come. Such necessary events can now take place in Ireland, given that the losses are "out there" and already on the Government's books.

No-one is saying the Irish economy is out of the woods. The situation is fragile – and could deteriorate. But amidst the scary headline numbers last week, few commentators noticed that Ireland cancelled bond auctions planned for October and November. That's because after a lot of pain, and some very tough decisions, the Irish government already has the cash it needs to fully-finance its budget until the middle of next year. Very few Western countries are in a similar position.

Ireland has a lot more to do. The losses that will now soon be imposed on junior creditors of its bombed-out banks should eventually spread to senior creditors too – so lightening the taxpayers' load. But, by revealing the banking sectors' vast losses and outlining a credible plan to fund them, the Irish have taken a step that others have not yet taken. Ultimately, they'll have to.


(telegraph.co.uk)

 

[Imark]

Why we need to follow the Irish and restructure our 'zombie' banks

In Dublin, early last Wednesday morning, a protester rammed a cement truck – with the words "TOXIC BANK" emblazoned on the side – into the ornate iron gates of the Irish Parliament.



By Liam Halligan
Published: 8:55PM BST 02 Oct 2010


The following day, Brian Cowen's government unveiled its plan to pump an additional €6.4bn into Anglo Irish Bank – the real-estate lender at the heart of the Republic's property meltdown. Having been nationalised in January 2009, the total cost of rescuing Anglo Irish could now be almost €30bn.


An additional €3bn capital injection into the much bigger Allied Irish Bank was also announced last week, with the state becoming majority shareholder in Ireland's second-largest lender. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also admitted that even more rescue finance could be needed under a "severe hypothetical stress scenario" if Irish property prices fall further, and then fail to recover.


In sum, Ireland's bank rescue, we now know, could cost this relatively small country an eye-watering €50bn – more than a quarter of total annual economic output. So huge are the immediate bail-out costs that the 2010 Irish budget deficit is now on course to hit an astonishing 32pc of GDP – 10-times bigger than eurozone member guidelines.

These are absolutely ghastly numbers, of course. But guess what? The fact that they're now in the public domain, that the government forced the banking sector to "fess up" its losses, meant that Irish sovereign debt rallied after ministers made their move. That's right – borrowing costs fell, a lot, as the all-important bond market signalled its approval at Dublin's determination to impose "full disclosure".

Back in 2009, Cowen and his team were widely praised as they took genuinely decisive action to get Ireland's fiscal house in order. The previous year, the Celtic Tiger had been severely wounded – after Ireland's runaway housing market and related construction boom went bang, the country enduring an economic implosion. This was made worse by the pound's fall against the euro, which meant Ireland lost competitiveness vis-a-vis the UK – still its biggest trading partner.

All this caused an unprecedented 7.5pc contraction in Irish economic output last year. Excluding profits made by the numerous multinational companies operating in Ireland, the drop was an even more shocking 11.3pc. As the economy went into a tailspin, borrowing costs surged, preventing the investment needed for recovery and turning bad debts even worse. As a result, Ireland's budget deficit soared to 14.3pc of GDP last year.

Cowen responded by imposing a one-off fiscal squeeze equivalent to around 6pc of GDP – through a combination of pay restraints, tax rises and curtailed public spending. The Irish were implementing in 12 months cuts roughly equivalent to those which British ministers insisted would take four years.

Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank President, called Ireland a "role model" urging other countries to "face up to their problems, as the Irish so clearly have done – something that's now widely recognized". Sure enough, by April this year, the "spread" the bond markets charge to hold Irish 10-year debt over the German "bund" equivalent was down to 139 basis points, less than half as wide as the year before.

Since then, this spread has widened once more, reaching 450bp prior to Cowen's announcement.
Ireland is now being presented in a very different light. As anti-austerity protests raged across Europe last week, trade unionists argued that Dublin's predicament shows what happens if governments "fail to support the economy", by piling debt on ever more sovereign debt.

In the UK, senior Labour politicians, who earlier in their careers showed signs of economic literacy, are peddling the same economic snake oil. Ireland shows the "extreme dangers of austerity", they say. That's the message, of course, they must deliver to their public-sector union paymasters – manipulative, selfish men who represent less than a fifth of the British workforce. Senior Labour figures should know better – and they do! They've simply allowed their intellect to be trumped by their ambition.

A closer look at Ireland highlights the absurdity of what trade unionists are now saying. Ireland isn't Greece. Dublin hasn't tapped the European Union's €750bn rescue fund and last week's announcement makes it less likely it will do so – which is why 10-year sovereign bond yields fell more than a quarter percentage point, from 449bp to 422bp.

Yes, in recent months, Ireland's "bund spread" has widened – but so has that of all eurozone "peripheral" nations. This has been partly due to Germany's economic recovery – which has lowered yields on Berlin's sovereign debt – but also been because the eurozone has so far resisted printing money on the same grotesque scale as the US and UK. That's kept the euro relatively strong, making it even harder for small export-driven member states such as Ireland to recover.

A lot of the reason Ireland's new headline fiscal numbers look so bad is that they're far more honest than equivalent data being presented elsewhere – in the UK, for instance. Ireland's gross government debt is now expected to rise from 64pc to 98pc of GDP this year. That's not high by international standards, but the increase is obviously sharp.

Having said that, because Ireland has large cash balances in its National Pension Reserve Fund – net government debt will actually be around 70pc of GDP, not much more than in the UK. Consider, also, that in contrast to Ireland, the vast majority of Britain's massive public sector pension liabilities are unfunded and off-balance sheet.

Ireland's annual deficit figure – projected to balloon to 32pc of GDP – also warrants examination. This number actually
includes the cost of the bank bail-outs, unlike its UK equivalent. Labour buried the cost of the RBS and Lloyds capital injections, not including them in the published deficit figures, a convention the Tories look set to continue. If Ireland followed the same methodology, its 2010 deficit would be 11pc of GDP, similar to the UK.

British ministers argue that bail-outs are "financial transactions" from which the government may eventually reap a return. So they shouldn't be included in the deficit. Such a position not only undermines the UK Government's fiscal credibility – effectively "banking" a return before it has been made. It also means the UK Government is petrified of taking the necessary steps to force banks to disclose their smouldering off balance-sheet liabilities, write-off losses and engage in root-and-branch restructuring – as that would cause the public finances to collapse.

Yet, as Japan's experience shows, such restructuring needs to happen, lest Britain's new "zombie banks" drain the life-blood out of the economy for years to come. Such necessary events can now take place in Ireland, given that the losses are "out there" and already on the Government's books.

No-one is saying the Irish economy is out of the woods. The situation is fragile – and could deteriorate. But amidst the scary headline numbers last week, few commentators noticed that Ireland cancelled bond auctions planned for October and November. That's because after a lot of pain, and some very tough decisions, the Irish government already has the cash it needs to fully-finance its budget until the middle of next year. Very few Western countries are in a similar position.

Ireland has a lot more to do. The losses that will now soon be imposed on junior creditors of its bombed-out banks should eventually spread to senior creditors too – so lightening the taxpayers' load. But, by revealing the banking sectors' vast losses and outlining a credible plan to fund them, the Irish have taken a step that others have not yet taken. Ultimately, they'll have to.


(telegraph.co.uk)

Bell'articolo.... ad essere trasparenti si guadagna in credibilità sui mercati, ma si è obbligati a proseguire sulla medesima strada per il futuro.

Ora che l'Irlanda si accinge ad essere l'azionista di gran lunga prevalente di Allied Irish, dato che i soldi per l'aumento di capitale necessario dovranno per forza di cose venire dallo Stato, verranno fuori del tutto anche gli ulteriori abbattimenti di valore da praticare sugli asset di quella che era una volta la prima banca del paese.

 

[tommy271]

Bell'articolo.... ad essere trasparenti si guadagna in credibilità sui mercati, ma si è obbligati a proseguire sulla medesima strada per il futuro.

Ora che l'Irlanda si accinge ad essere l'azionista di gran lunga prevalente di Allied Irish, dato che i soldi per l'aumento di capitale necessario dovranno per forza di cose venire dallo Stato, verranno fuori del tutto anche gli ulteriori abbattimenti di valore da praticare sugli asset di quella che era una volta la prima banca del paese.

Si, veramente un buon articolo.
Una panoramica chiara sull'affaire Irlanda.

 

[tommy271]

Banca centrale Irlanda,pil al ribasso

Nel 2011 Paese avra' crescita del 2,4% anziche' del 2,8%

04 ottobre, 13:37

(ANSA) - ROMA, 4 OTT - La Banca Centrale irlandese rivede al ribasso le stime di crescita dell'Irlanda per quest'anno e per il 2011. Il Pil irlandese vedra' quest'anno un rialzo dello 0,2% rispetto ad un +0,8% stimato in precedenza dalla stessa banca mentre l'anno prossimo il Paese segnera' una crescita del 2,4% piuttosto che del 2,8%, ha comunicato la Banca centrale.

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, Pil 2010 quasi a zero, altri tagli - banca centrale

lunedì 4 ottobre 2010 15:57

DUBLINO, 4 ottobre (Reuters) - L'economia irlandese sta scivolando verso uno stop virtuale nel 2010.
E' quanto sostiene la banca centrale di Dublino, che ha tagliato le previsioni sulla crescita del Pil allo 0,2% dal precedente 0,8%.
La banca, nel bollettino trimestrale, ha avvertito che, alla luce dei timori internazionali sulla tenuta delle finanze irlandesi, il governo guidato da Brian Cowen non potrà evitare ulteriori tagli di bilancio.
Secondo l'istituto centrale, "la priorità nel breve termine è garantire che il bilancio 2011 sia il primo passo di un programma di maggiori strette alle spese".
La settimana scorsa, Cowen ha anticipato una legge di pulizia del bilancio fino a 50 miliardi di euro.
Allo stato, il governo continua ad avere una previsione di crescita del Pil dell'1%, ma nel mese di ottobre pubblicherà le nuove stime.
Il Prodotto nazionale lordo, considerato una misura migliore dell'economia irlandese perché esclude i profitti delle multinazionali che operano nel Paese e gli interessi pagati sul debito estero, è visto, dalla banca centrale, scendere dell'1,7% nel 2010.
Il deficit di Dublino è stimato esplodere al 32% del Pil a causa delle regole Ue sui bilanci, che costringeranno l'Irlanda a contabilizzare gli aiuti al settore bancario. Depurato degli interventi a sostegno delle banche, il deficit, ha sottolineato la banca centrale, ammonta all'11,6% circa. Cowen ha promesso di riportarlo sotto il 3% entro il 2014.