Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Allied Irish Banks To Raise $2 Billion Under Notes Offering



By Patricia Kowsmann Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON

(Dow Jones)- Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB) said Thursday that it will raise about $2 billion from the sale of its 22.4% stake in M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) through a public offering.
The Irish bank said an offering of 26.7 million notes that will be converted into M&T shares were priced at $77.50 each.
The share conversion is subject to shareholder approval in a meeting Nov. 1, the lender said.
M&T shares closed Wednesday at $78.91.
The sale will result in a EUR900 million capital boost for the bank, which has been hard hit by the financial crisis.
Last week, Ireland's government said it would inject another EUR2 billion to EUR3 billion into Allied Irish, making the state the company's majority stakeholder. The Irish bank is being forced by its regulators to sell the stake to raise capital.
AIB got the stake in the Buffalo bank when M&T acquired AIB's U.S. retail bank, Allfirst Financial Inc. of Baltimore.

 

[tommy271]

L'opinione di Mauro Bottarelli:

FINANZA/ 1. I nuovi dati che mettono a rischio l?Irlanda (e l?Europa) | Pagina 1

 

[Imark]

Mi scuso con tutti: putroppo devo scrivere in fretta in questi giorni, ed ho conservato il vizio di non rileggere...

Ho dunque corretto il mio intervento, volendo dire che, a mio parere, la ripresa dell'edilizia in UK è figlia della politica monetaria iperaccomodante della BOE e della crescita del deficit pubblico UK.

Se effettivamente con il nuovo governo subentrato a giugno assisteremo ad una politica di austerità e di contenimento del deficit pubblico, il boom edilizio rischia di spegnersi in breve tempo...

Infatti, eccoci... era davvero un pronostico facile... altri guai in arrivo per le banche irlandesi... il 3,6% da un mese all'altro è davvero tanto...

Gb, crollo del 3,6% nei prezzi case


giovedì, 7 ottobre 2010 - 11:12

(ANSA) - ROMA, 7 OTT - Crollo dei prezzi delle case in Gran Bretagna: a settembre il costo medio di una abitazione e' sceso del 3,6% rispetto ad agosto. E' il ribasso piu' marcato dal 1983. Per gli economisti, il mercato immobiliare britannico rischia una nuova 'gelata' ed e' probabile che a meta' del 2011 i prezzi delle case scendano del 5% rispetto all'anno prima.

 

[tommy271]

Banche Irlanda, governo non penalizzerà bondholder - Lenihan

giovedì 7 ottobre 2010 16:37




DUBLINO, 7 ottobre (Reuters) - Il ministro delle finanze irlandese Brian Lenihan ha ribadito che il governo non intende imporre perdite ai detentori di bond senior in qualsiasi degli istituti di credito del paese.
Lenihan ha anche dichiarato che una riorganizzazione del debito subordinato si applicherà solo agli istituti che non sono quotati in borsa, che sono controllati al 100% per cento dallo Stato e che non potrebbero sopravvivere in assenza di un sostegno statale completo.
"C'è stata qualche incertezza tra i partecipanti e gli osservatori del mercato in merito al trattamento previsto per i debiti subordinati emessi dalle banche irlandesi", ha detto la National Treasury Management Agency (Ntma) in un comunicato.
L'Autorità finanziaraia si è espressa ieri contro l'eventualità di penalizzare i possessori di obbligazioni senior colpiti dal crollo delle banche irlandesi, ma non aveva escluso colloqui finalizzati a raggiungere un accordo.

 

[bosmeld]

chissá come andrá questa storia....


mi riferisco ai subordinati

 

[tommy271]

chissá come andrá questa storia....


mi riferisco ai subordinati

Non bene, se a Dublino faranno prevalere gli interessi generali.
Forse andrà un pò meglio per gli altri bondholder.
Stiamo a vedere ...

 

[tommy271]

Mps Ireland prepara bond 2 anni, opzione put ogni 3 mesi - fonti

lunedì 4 ottobre 2010 16:53




MILANO, 4 ottobre (Reuters) - Monte dei Paschi Ireland, controllata di Banca Monte dei Paschi (BMPS.MI: Quotazione), ha in preparazione un bond di tipo senior e di un ammontare non benchmark (circa 100 milioni), della durata di due anni, con una opzione a vendere esercitabile ogni tre mesi da parte del sottoscrittore.
Lo dicono a Reuters fonti vicine all'operazione.
"Il bond, che al momento è indicato per l'ammontare di circa 100 milioni di euro, è a tasso variabile e della durata di due anni, ma ogni tre mesi il sottoscrittore può chiedere il rimborso del bond al prezzo di 100" spiega una delle fonti.


Nel caso il bond non venga richiesto dal sottoscrittore scattano ogni tre mesi maggiorazioni della cedola. Dopo i primi tre mesi, se il bond non viene rimborsato, la cedola è pari a 25 punti base sul tasso del tre mesi euribor. Ogni successivi tre mesi scatta l'opzione put e se il bond non viene rimborsato la cedola viene maggiorata e fissata rispettivamente a 45/65/90/100/105/115/130 punti base sul tre mesi euribor.
Bnp Paribas è il solo lead manager dell'operazione.
Il rating è di 'A1' per Moody's e di 'A-' per S&P's e Fitch.



.

 

[tommy271]

Ireland Won't Impose Losses on Senior Debtholders of Financial Insitutions

By Louisa Fahy - Oct 7, 2010 3:37 PM GMT+0200 Thu Oct 07 13:37:55 GMT 2011

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the government has “no intention” of imposing losses on holders of senior debt of Ireland’s credit institutions through legislative measures.
Senior noteholders rank equally with depositors and other creditors under Irish law, Ireland’s National Treasury Management Agency said in a statement on its website.
Lenihan “has no plans to change this position and that there is, therefore, no intention to impose losses on holders of such senior debt in any credit institution in the state through any legislative measures,” the NTMA said in the statement.
Financial Regulator Matthew Elderfield said yesterday that a “liquidity management exercise” by consent with senior bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank Corp. and Irish Nationwide Building Society hasn’t been ruled out. Lenihan said Sept. 30 that while senior bondholders will be paid in full under Ireland’s banking bailout, legislation is being prepared to “address the issue” of junior bondholders taking a loss on their investments.
“The Minister has advised that prospective resolution and reorganization legislation, insofar as it affects subordinated debt in issue, will apply only to such debt in issue from institutions which are not listed on a recognized stock exchange, are in 100 percent state control and cannot survive in the absence of total state support,” the NTMA said today.
Ireland’s deteriorating finances have fueled investor concern it will follow Greece in tapping the 750 billion-euro rescue fund set up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The cost of bailing out Ireland’s banks may ultimately rise to about 50 billion euros ($70 billion).



(Bloomberg)


***
Più dettagliato rispetto a Reuters in italiano.

 

[Imark]

Fitch Downgrades Ireland to 'A+'; Outlook Negative


06 Oct 2010 7:04 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-06 October 2010: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Republic of Ireland's (Ireland) Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'A+' from 'AA-' respectively. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Negative. Fitch has simultaneously downgraded Ireland's Short-term foreign currency IDR to 'F1' from 'F1+'.

The Euro Area Country Ceiling of 'AAA' remains unchanged. The notes issued by the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) have also been downgraded to 'A+' from 'AA-' and to 'F1' from 'F1+', in line with the sovereign ratings.

"The downgrade of Ireland reflects the exceptional and greater-than-expected fiscal cost associated with the government's recapitalisation of the Irish banks, especially Anglo Irish Bank," said Chris Pryce, Director in Fitch's Sovereign Group. "The Negative Outlook reflects the uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of economic recovery and medium-term fiscal consolidation effort."

Typically a Negative Outlook implies a slightly greater than 50% probability of a further downgrade over a 12-24 month horizon. The triggers for a revision of the Outlook to Stable would be evidence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation. The ratings could be downgraded further if the economy stagnates and broad-based political support for and implementation of budgetary consolidation weakens.

Fitch believes that the latest government estimate - announced on 30 September - of the fiscal cost of recapitalising Irish banks and the transfer of assets to NAMA are plausible, particularly if account is taken of the additional EUR5bn estimated for the stressed case. Moreover, the large cash buffer of more than EUR20bn, around EUR14bn of uncommitted funds of the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) as well as ongoing bank funding support from the ECB means that Ireland still retains considerable financial flexibility.

Despite the weak performance of the economy, the underlying budgetary position remains in line with the targets set out in the 2010 Budget and Fitch expects a further strengthening of the fiscal consolidation effort to be set out by the Minister of Finance in November.

On the basis of its central case, the government's total direct bank bailout costs will rise to EUR45bn from the EUR23bn assumed at the time of Fitch's last rating action on 4 November 2009. Of this EUR45bn, EUR29.3bn will be on account of Anglo Irish Bank ('BBB-'/RWN), already 100%-owned by the state. The remainder will be spread over the other four Irish banks.

In some cases government assistance has been given indirectly by the state-owned NPRF in which case the transactions will show up as a rise in net debt, rather than the more commonly used gross debt measure.
General government gross debt (excluding debt issued by NAMA to fund asset transfers from the banks) will rise to 99% of GDP at end-2010 from the 78% previously predicted by the government.

This increase is explained by the issuance of promissory notes to re-capitalise Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society in 2010 and by a downward revision to the estimated level of nominal GDP for 2010. While the promissory notes have an immediate full impact on the stock of gross debt, their funding cost is spread over a 10-15 year period.

Net government debt that takes into account the government's cash buffer and the assets of the NPRF is forecast to be around 76% of GDP by year-end (90% excluding NPRF assets). Moreover, though the cost of bank recapitalisation is much greater than anticipated, the estimated cost of transferring assets to NAMA has consequently fallen to EUR31bn from EUR54bn.

NAMA debt is not formally counted as part of government debt (though it is guaranteed by the state). However, it does represent a significant contingent liability. Fitch believes it is reasonable to assume that NAMA will over the long-term break-even given the average 58% discount that has been applied to transferred assets compared with an original forecast of around 30%.

The broad general government deficit for 2010 will be equivalent to an unprecedented 32% of GDP. However, in large part this reflects a ruling by the European statistical agency, Eurostat, that the issue of promissory notes by the government to the banks should be treated as 'above the line' budgetary expenditure.

Fitch believes stripping out these one-off transactions provides a more appropriate measure of the underlying fiscal position which is now forecast to be a deficit of 11.9% of GDP, close to the initial government forecast for 2010.

A key element of strengthening confidence in the sustainability of public finances over the medium-term will be the announcement in early November of a 'four year profile' (2011 to 2014) for the budget including details of the adjustment necessary in terms of tax revenue as well as public expenditure. Broad-based political support would help strengthen the credibility of the medium-term fiscal consolidation effort.

The timing and strength of economic recovery is also critical to firmly placing public finances on a sustainable path. A rebalancing of the economy is underway. Ireland is regaining its international competitiveness lost during the 'boom' years and the current account of the balance of payments is expected to move to balance during 2011.

Moreover, the drag on growth from the collapse of the construction boom has mostly run its course. Nevertheless, the ongoing distress in the housing and commercial real estate markets, household sector de-leveraging and the uncertainty over the global economic outlook, especially important given Ireland's open and internationally orientated economy, weigh on growth prospects and fiscal outlook.

 

[tommy271]

Juncker, problemi Irlanda meno gravi rispetto a Grecia


La situazione economica irlandese è "sotto controllo". Lo ha detto il presidente dell'Eurogruppo Jean-Claude Juncker in occasione del meeting tra il Fondo monetario internazionale e la Banca mondiale a Washington. Juncker ha anche dichiarato di non vedere molte somiglianze tra la situazione irlandese e quella greca. Il presidente dell'Eurogruppo ha spiegato che i problemi dell'Irlanda, che sono incentrati sulle difficoltà delle banche, saranno "più semplici" da risolvere nel medio termine rispetto a quelli della Grecia. Juncker ha aggiunto che preferirebbe vedere i Paesi dell'area-euro condividere un solo seggio nel consiglio del Fondo Monetario Internazionale. "Sarebbe più semplice, e più intelligente" ha dichiarato, sottolineando che un'unica poltrona aiuterebbe i paesi europei a raggiungere un accordo condiviso sulle decisioni più importanti.


(Milano Finanza)