Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Irlanda, Barnier: Ue vede luce in fondo al tunnel

venerdì 5 novembre 2010 12:12



DUBLINO (Reuters) - La Commissione Ue è fiduciosa che l'Irlanda riuscirà a superare le attuali difficoltà.
"Vedo luce in fondo al tunnel", ha detto il commissario Ue al mercato interno, Michel Barnier, ad una commissione parlamentare a Dublino.
Secondo Barnier, inoltre, le esportazioni e l'accesso a più ampi mercati, potranno aiutare l'economia irlandese nella ripresa.


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Con l'Euro che sale ...

 

[tommy271]

Ireland Leads Surge in Sovereign Risk to Record on Budget Woes

November 05, 2010, 7:41 AM EDT

By Abigail Moses and Kate Haywood


Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland led a surge in the cost of insuring sovereign debt to a record as the government struggles to convince investors it can avert a European Union-led bailout.

Credit-default swaps on Ireland rose for a ninth day, soaring 27 basis points to an all-time high of 606, according to data provider CMA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index rose 5 basis points to a record 170.

Austerity measures in Europe’s so-called peripheral countries are failing to reassure investors that fiscal crises are under control. Ireland yesterday accelerated plans to cut its budget to avoid the fate of Greece, which was rescued earlier this year, and Portugal is suffering higher borrowing costs after agreeing the biggest spending cuts since the 1970s.

“Peripheral Europe is burning again,” said Sanjay Joshi, who oversees about $500 million as a money manager at London & Capital Group Ltd. “Ireland talking about more austerity cuts, it just makes the whole situation worse, not better.”

Credit swaps on Portugal climbed 9 basis points to 448.5, according to CMA. Contracts on Greece jumped 13.5 basis points to 864.5, Spain increased 13 to 246.5 and Italy rose 11.5 to 193.5. A basis point on a contract insuring $10 million of debt for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase signals deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.
“European sovereign debt remains in the focus,” Markus Ernst, a Munich-based strategist at UniCredit SpA, wrote in a note to investors. “Sovereign credits in Europe, in particular Irish debt, remain under pressure.”

Sovereign concerns also weighed on European banks. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 lenders and insurers rose 6 basis points to 131, and the subordinated index was 8.5 higher at 202.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index linked to 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings was 3 basis points higher at 437. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 3 basis points to 98.25.


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Un film già visto in primavera ...

 

[tommy271]

Spain, Ireland bank shares hurt on euro zone fears


MADRID, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Spanish banks traded lower on Friday, dragged by fears on the weakness of peripheral euro zone economies after Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) (BKIR.L) shares slumped in Dublin and London.

Spanish bank shares .IBAN.BC fell 2.9 percent against a 1.5 percent fall in the European bank index .SX7P. Bank of Ireland stock fell 9.5 percent to its lowest level since mid-2009 due to concerns on the state of the Irish economy.

"A lot of that is about insecurity," said Tom Shaw, an analyst at Ireland-based brokerage house Goodbody.

"The international bond market seems unconvinced that our (Irish) attempts to cut 6 billion euros ($8.5 billion) (in 2011) are sufficient to restore the economy and the pace for growth in the future. There is a big credibility issue," he said.

Another Geneva-based trader said a renewed rise in the credit default swap (CDS) prices of Ireland had weighed on the Bank of Ireland share price.

Spanish traders said fears of more capital hikes by Spanish banks, as they struggle to improve capital ratios under tougher Basel III rules amid increased provisions and higher rates paid on deposits, were also hurting shares.

"There is ... a bank that made a much bigger capital hike than it needed to, and that makes people worried that the others could do something similar," said one Madrid-based trader.

BBVA (BBVA.MC) said on Tuesday it would carry out a 5.1 billion euro rights issue, partly to finance an acquisition in Turkey.

Spain's two biggest banks, BBVA and Santander (SAN.MC), were 1.5 percent lower and 2.8 percent lower respectively in high volumes. By 1137 GMT, the volume of BBVA shares traded represented nearly 150 percent of the stock's 90-day average daily volume.

The iTraxx SovX index of Western European credit default swap prices rose to a record high as the cost of protecting Irish government debt against default hit a peak after a budget some traders said was "unrealistic".

***
Il ventre molle ...

 

[tommy271]

Irish Default Swaps Surge to Record on Bank Bailout Cost Woes

By Abigail Moses - Nov 8, 2010 11:49 AM GMT+0100 Mon Nov 08 10:49:20 GMT 2010


Credit-default swaps on Ireland and its banks surged to record high levels on concern the cost of bailing out the nation’s financial system is unsustainable.

Contracts on Ireland soared 28 basis points from a record closing level to 606, according to data provider CMA. Swaps on the senior debt of Allied Irish Banks Plc climbed 43.5 basis points to 899.5 and Bank of Ireland Plc increased 37.5 to 724.5.

Ireland is struggling to convince investors it can plug its budget deficit and repay debt as the cost of backstopping its banks mounts. The euro weakened as the nation’s troubles undermined confidence in the region and the yield on the Irish 10-year bond gained eight basis points to 7.91 percent.

“The uncertainty regarding sovereign debt and deficits in the European periphery will remain a strain for risky assets,” Tim Brunne, a Munich-based strategist at UniCredit SpA, wrote in a note to investors.

The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold Irish 10-year bonds instead of similar-maturity benchmark German debt increased 10 basis points to 531 basis points, near the record 534 basis points reached at the end of last week.

Swaps on Allied Irish subordinated debt jumped 8 percentage points to 54 percent upfront and five percent a year, meaning it costs 5.4 million euros in advance and 500,000 euros annually to insure 10 million euros of the bank’s debt for five years. Subordinated swaps on Bank of Ireland jumped 2 percentage points to 31 percent upfront and five percent a year.

Government Swaps

Ireland led an increase in the cost of insuring government debt, CMA prices show. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 nations rose 3.75 basis points from a record closing level to 174.75. Contracts on Portugal jumped 9 basis points to 454, Spain climbed 9.5 to 259.5 and Italy increased 4 to 195. Greece declined 3 basis points to 195.

The cost of insuring corporate bonds also rose. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed 7 basis points to 438, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings increased 2 basis points to 98.75, JPMorgan prices show. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers was unchanged at 132.5.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting 10 million euros ($13.9 million) of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase signals deterioration in perceptions of credit quality.


(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

Ireland’s ‘Dr. Doom’ Says Nation Will Need EU Bailout

By Dara Doyle and Colm Heatley - Nov 8, 2010 12:16 PM GMT+0100 Mon Nov 08 11:16:36 GMT 2010


Ireland’s economy will need to be bailed out as a wave of mortgage losses increase the cost of rescuing the nation’s lenders, according to Morgan Kelly, an economics professor dubbed the country’s “Doctor Doom.”

“From here on, for better or worse, we can only rely on the kindness of strangers,” Kelly wrote in the Irish Times today. Kelly was given the “Doom” nickname by newspapers including the New York Times after he forecast in 2006 that Irish property prices may decline as much as 80 percent.

Ireland’s government said in September that it may need to spend as much as 50 billion euros ($69 billion) to bail out lenders such as Anglo Irish Bank Corp. The government, which is targeting 15 billion euros of savings over the next four years to reduce the euro area’s widest deficit, also canceled debt auctions for the rest of the year.

The bill “for the banks dwarfs the 15 billion euros in spending cuts now agonised over and reduces the necessary cuts in government spending to an exercise in futility,” said Kelly, who sees the bank-bailout figure rising to 70 billion euros. “What is the point of rearranging the spending deckchairs, when the iceberg of bank losses is going to sink us anyway?”

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan last week outlined a plan to save 6 billion euros in 2011 and reduce the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014, from around 12 percent this year. Including the cost of the bank bailout, the shortfall will be about 32 percent of GDP this year.
Lenihan is today meeting with European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and the pair will hold a press conference in Dublin tonight.


‘Out of Cash’


Kelly wrote in the Irish Times that a wave of mortgage defaults will take place shortly as house prices fall further and said that by next year Ireland will have “run out of cash.”

“Although insolvent, Ireland is still liquid, for now,” he wrote. “By next year, Ireland will have run out of cash and the terms of a formal bailout will have to be agreed. Our bill will be totted up and presented to us, along with terms of repayment. On these terms hangs our future as a nation.”

(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

Irish banks sink as EU eyes nation's survival plan


By SHAWN POGATCHNIK
The Associated Press
Monday, November 8, 2010; 8:13 AM



DUBLIN -- Shares in Ireland's banks fell to record lows Monday and borrowing costs were near euro-era highs as the government prepared to discuss its fiscal survival plans with top European Union officials.

Although Ireland is not at immediate risk of bankruptcy, investors are shunning government and bank debt out of fear that the country is at growing risk of requiring a bailout by the EU and International Monetary Fund, like Greece received in May.

The battered shares of Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland and Irish Life & Permanent all have been dropping on the Irish Stock Exchange since Finance Minister Brian Lenihan last week announced plans to slash euro6 billion ($8.35 billion) from its 2011 deficit, double his previous target. His goal is to reduce the 2011 deficit to 9.5 percent of GDP from its projected 2010 rate of 32 percent, a modern European record.

Allied Irish was down 3 percent to euro0.26, Bank of Ireland 13 percent to euro0.37, and Irish Life & Permanent 16 percent to euro0.88. The first two banks have received billions in state aid because of their dud loans to bankrupt construction tycoons, while Irish Life & Permanent has received no bailout help but is most exposed to Ireland's depressed market for residential property.

Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for financial affairs, is meeting Lenihan in Dublin on Monday night and will then meet opposition politicians and business and labor union leaders Tuesday.

Many analysts are questioning whether Ireland's deepening austerity efforts will be sufficient to persuade foreign banks to buy Irish government and bank bonds again at reasonable rates. If not, Ireland will face a growing risk of default in 2011 that can be relieved only by taking emergency aid from Europe's Financial Stability Fund.

The government in September withdrew temporarily from the bond market, arguing that investors were demanding punitive interest rates. Lenihan expressed hopes that investors' confidence in Ireland would grow before the government needs to re-enter the market in early 2011. The country says it has sufficient funds to pay its bills through April and also could tap its pension reserve fund.

So far the approach has failed as the interest rates, or yields, on Irish 10-year treasuries has reached a series of highs in recent weeks reflecting investors' growing belief that Ireland is running out of time to avoid a default or bailout.

As the traditional owners of Irish treasuries - chiefly banks in Britain, Germany, the United States and France - seek to dump them because of their falling value and increased perceived risk, new sellers can be attracted only by offering higher yields.

Irish 10-year bonds were trading Monday at average yields of 7.75 percent - just off the euro-era high of 7.82 percent reached last week - and at a 5.3 percent spread versus equivalent German bonds.

 

[tommy271]

IRLANDA: JUNCKER, BENE ACCORDO PER RIDURRE DEFICIT ENTRO 2014


15:37 08 NOV 2010

(AGI) Bruxelles - Il presidente dell'Eurogruppo Jean Claude Juncker e' "ammirato" per la capacita' delle autorita' politiche irlandesi che hanno raggiunto un accordo per ridurre il deficit pubblico: come ha detto in un'audizione al Parlamento europeo, grazie anche ai nuovi interventi annunciati nei giorni scorsi, Juncker e' fiducioso che l'Irlanda raggiunga gli obiettivi fissati per il 2014. .

 

[tommy271]

Spread bond Irlanda/Germania tocca nuovo record a 557 pb

lunedì 8 novembre 2010 15:37




LONDRA, 8 novembre (Reuters) - Il premio che gli investitori chiedono per detenere titoli di Stato irlandesi a dieci anni piuttosto che titoli tedeschi è salito fino a segnare un nuovo massimo storico oggi a causa di tensioni che riguardano il debito emesso dai periferici.
Il differenziale tra i rendimenti dei titoli di Stato a dieci anni di Irlanda e Germania IE10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB si è divaricato oggi di 20 punti base a 557 bp.
"Sull'Irlanda non c'è nessuna novità, solo scarso gradimento del debito dei periferici" dice Marc Ostwald, strategist sui bond a Monument Securities a Londra.
Segue a ruota il differenziale tra i titoli portoghesi e quelli tedeschi PT10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB si allarga al massimo record di 450 pb.
Indiscrezioni stampa nel fine settimana su possibili difficoltà per il governo irlandese di rifinanziare il proprio debito il prossimo anno tengono in tensione i mercati.

 

[tommy271]

I CDS sull'Irlanda raggiungono un nuovo massimo storico

I credit default swaps (CDS) sul debito sovrano irlandese hanno raggiunto oggi un nuovo record storico.
I contratti di assicurazione contro il default dell'Irlanda sono saliti rispetto a venerdì da 578,3 punti a 598,6 punti.
Anche lo spread tra le obbligazioni decennali dell'Irlanda e quelle tedesche ha raggiunto un nuovo massimo assoluto.
Il maggiore partito all'opposizione in Irlanda ha indicato che non sosterrà i tagli annunciati dal Governo.
La notizia ha fatto aumentare i dubbi del mercato sulle capacità di Dublino di risanare il suo deficit pubblico.

(Borsa inside.com)

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda sempre più sotto i riflettori:

FINANZA/ I mercati in ansia: l?Irlanda sarà la prossima Grecia? | Pagina 1