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Ecco il commento alla rating action di S&P per BOI. Si comprende come la situazione irlandese mostri la corda, per così dire.
Il creditwatch sarà risolto a seconda di come opererà l'agenzia statale incaricata di rilevare gli asset problematici in carico alle banche, ma S&P sembra convinta che i livelli di capitalizzazione della banca, ad operazione completata, possano non essere più compatibili con il rating A, sebbene il rating attuale incorpori già un plus di due livelli derivante dal sostegno statale.
Molto dipenderà presumibilmente da quali prezzi verranno fissati in merito a tali asset, da quali asset saranno rilevati e quali invece lasciati in carico alle banche, ma gli irlandesi rischiano molto.
Dovranno stare molto accorti a non rischiare di compromettere ulteriormente il rating sovrano nazionale, se l'intervento fosse tale da fare assumere un appesantimento del debito pubblico, ma anche a non lasciare in carico alle banche troppi asset che - per la loro qualità - si prestino a sollevare dubbi circa la "viability" delle banche ad operazione completata.
Questo creditwatch negativo, che si estende a tutte le banche irlandesi, non solo a BOI significa in realtà che l'Irlanda probabilmente non sosterrà (o forse non è in grado di sostenere) le proprie banche in misura tale di garantire loro un rating A. Non è una buona notizia neanche per i bondholder senior, sebbene sia detta con tutte le cautele che contraddistinguono l'atteggiamento delle agenzie di rating.
Circa gli ibridi, il calo del rating a livello BB sconta gli accresciuti timori che - con l'aumentare degli aiuti di stato, la banca possa essere costretta dalla Commissione Europea (o da altre autorità pubbliche) a subordinare l'accettazione degli aiuti alla sospensione del pagamento delle cedole su questi strumenti.
Per chi ha bond irlandesi, l'attuazione del progetto NAMA (dall'acronimo dell'agenzia statale di cui sopra) dovrà essere seguita con molta attenzione.
Bank of Ireland 'A' L-T Rating Put On CreditWatch Negative On Expected Asset Transfer And NAMA Plan; Hybrids Cut To 'BB'
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 1, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it placed its 'A' long-term counterparty credit rating on Bank of Ireland (BOI; the trading name of the Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, the 'A-1' short-term counterparty credit rating on BOI was affirmed. Furthermore, the ratings on BOI's hybrid capital instruments were lowered to 'BB' from 'BB+', and remain on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The CreditWatch placement follows our consideration of the Irish government's plan--announced April 7, 2009--to remove the riskiest lending from the balance sheets of the country's main domestically owned, commercial banks via the establishment of a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA)," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Giles Edwards. (For more information see "Irish Bank Rating Implications Are Uncertain Following Government's Asset Transfer Plan," published today on RatingsDirect.)
The impact of the planned transfer of assets to NAMA has been factored into our assessment of BOI's stand-alone credit profile. We now factor two notches of support into the ratings on BOI, reflecting our view that the government will provide further support to BOI if required. We consider BOI to be of high systemic importance to the Irish banking sector.
The CreditWatch placement of the long-term rating on BOI reflects our expectation that the NAMA proposal will proceed, but also uncertainty about the financial profile of BOI following the execution of the NAMA plan.
While we expect that the Irish government would continue to support BOI, the level of support provided, particularly regarding capitalization, may not be consistent with the current 'A' rating.
"The CreditWatch placement with negative implications also reflects the very weak outlook for the Irish economy, the still dislocated wholesale funding market, and the related challenges faced by BOI in terms of managing asset quality and profitability," added Mr. Edwards. We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement when we have more details on the NAMA plan, but continuing deterioration of the Irish economy could prompt negative rating action prior to this.
We do not currently expect the ratings on BOI to be lowered by more than one notch, and they may be affirmed. An affirmation could result if we consider that, following the execution of the NAMA plan, the bank's financial profile will be comfortably positioned to weather the economic downturn.
The CreditWatch placement of BOI's undated capital instruments reflects our view that, while BOI may continue to be willing to service the coupons on these instruments, uncertainty persists about whether the authorities,
particularly the European Commission, will continue to allow the bank to do this.
We will resolve the CreditWatch placement of these instruments when the authorities' position becomes clearer. Should there be no impediment to BOI servicing its hybrid obligations, the ratings on these instruments may be affirmed. Should the instruments be downgraded as a result of our view of increased deferral risk arising from potential authorities' intervention, they are likely to be lowered to the 'B' rating level or lower.
Il creditwatch sarà risolto a seconda di come opererà l'agenzia statale incaricata di rilevare gli asset problematici in carico alle banche, ma S&P sembra convinta che i livelli di capitalizzazione della banca, ad operazione completata, possano non essere più compatibili con il rating A, sebbene il rating attuale incorpori già un plus di due livelli derivante dal sostegno statale.
Molto dipenderà presumibilmente da quali prezzi verranno fissati in merito a tali asset, da quali asset saranno rilevati e quali invece lasciati in carico alle banche, ma gli irlandesi rischiano molto.
Dovranno stare molto accorti a non rischiare di compromettere ulteriormente il rating sovrano nazionale, se l'intervento fosse tale da fare assumere un appesantimento del debito pubblico, ma anche a non lasciare in carico alle banche troppi asset che - per la loro qualità - si prestino a sollevare dubbi circa la "viability" delle banche ad operazione completata.
Questo creditwatch negativo, che si estende a tutte le banche irlandesi, non solo a BOI significa in realtà che l'Irlanda probabilmente non sosterrà (o forse non è in grado di sostenere) le proprie banche in misura tale di garantire loro un rating A. Non è una buona notizia neanche per i bondholder senior, sebbene sia detta con tutte le cautele che contraddistinguono l'atteggiamento delle agenzie di rating.
Circa gli ibridi, il calo del rating a livello BB sconta gli accresciuti timori che - con l'aumentare degli aiuti di stato, la banca possa essere costretta dalla Commissione Europea (o da altre autorità pubbliche) a subordinare l'accettazione degli aiuti alla sospensione del pagamento delle cedole su questi strumenti.
Per chi ha bond irlandesi, l'attuazione del progetto NAMA (dall'acronimo dell'agenzia statale di cui sopra) dovrà essere seguita con molta attenzione.
Bank of Ireland 'A' L-T Rating Put On CreditWatch Negative On Expected Asset Transfer And NAMA Plan; Hybrids Cut To 'BB'
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 1, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it placed its 'A' long-term counterparty credit rating on Bank of Ireland (BOI; the trading name of the Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, the 'A-1' short-term counterparty credit rating on BOI was affirmed. Furthermore, the ratings on BOI's hybrid capital instruments were lowered to 'BB' from 'BB+', and remain on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The CreditWatch placement follows our consideration of the Irish government's plan--announced April 7, 2009--to remove the riskiest lending from the balance sheets of the country's main domestically owned, commercial banks via the establishment of a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA)," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Giles Edwards. (For more information see "Irish Bank Rating Implications Are Uncertain Following Government's Asset Transfer Plan," published today on RatingsDirect.)
The impact of the planned transfer of assets to NAMA has been factored into our assessment of BOI's stand-alone credit profile. We now factor two notches of support into the ratings on BOI, reflecting our view that the government will provide further support to BOI if required. We consider BOI to be of high systemic importance to the Irish banking sector.
The CreditWatch placement of the long-term rating on BOI reflects our expectation that the NAMA proposal will proceed, but also uncertainty about the financial profile of BOI following the execution of the NAMA plan.
While we expect that the Irish government would continue to support BOI, the level of support provided, particularly regarding capitalization, may not be consistent with the current 'A' rating.
"The CreditWatch placement with negative implications also reflects the very weak outlook for the Irish economy, the still dislocated wholesale funding market, and the related challenges faced by BOI in terms of managing asset quality and profitability," added Mr. Edwards. We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement when we have more details on the NAMA plan, but continuing deterioration of the Irish economy could prompt negative rating action prior to this.
We do not currently expect the ratings on BOI to be lowered by more than one notch, and they may be affirmed. An affirmation could result if we consider that, following the execution of the NAMA plan, the bank's financial profile will be comfortably positioned to weather the economic downturn.
The CreditWatch placement of BOI's undated capital instruments reflects our view that, while BOI may continue to be willing to service the coupons on these instruments, uncertainty persists about whether the authorities,
particularly the European Commission, will continue to allow the bank to do this.
We will resolve the CreditWatch placement of these instruments when the authorities' position becomes clearer. Should there be no impediment to BOI servicing its hybrid obligations, the ratings on these instruments may be affirmed. Should the instruments be downgraded as a result of our view of increased deferral risk arising from potential authorities' intervention, they are likely to be lowered to the 'B' rating level or lower.
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