Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (2 lettori)

Imark

Forumer storico
Intanto cade la scure di Fitch sul rating dei perpetuals ed UT2 di Anglo Irish Bank dopo la perdita semestrale di 4,1 mld euro riportata a fine marzo 2009.

Sebbene la banca abbia manifestato l'intenzione di non dare corso al deferral sulle cedole di questi bond, crescono le possibilità che essa possa esservi costretta dalle autorità irlandesi o da quelle europee (per queste ultime, quale condizione all'assenso ad erogare aiuti di stato alla banca)

Fitch Downgrades Anglo Irish Bank's Preference Shares

01 Jun 2009 4:45 AM (EDT)


Fitch Ratings-London-01 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded the ratings of Anglo Irish Bank Corporation's (Anglo) tier 1 debt securities to 'B-' from 'BB-'. The upper tier 2 debt securities are downgraded to 'B' from 'BB'. Both ratings remain on Rating Watch Negative. Meanwhile the agency has affirmed all of the other ratings of the bank - see below. The rating action has no implication for Anglo's 'AAA' rated covered bonds.

The rating action follows the recent announcement that the bank has reported a loss for the six months to end-March 2009 of EUR4.1bn. While the bank has stated its intention of continuing to pay coupons on its tier 1 and upper tier 2 securities, Fitch is concerned that financial resources are so strained that the probability of non-payment is greater than hitherto considered. It is also possible that, regardless of the bank's intentions, the authorities could request the bank not to pay coupons on these securities.

At the same time, the Irish Minister for Finance has stated that the Irish government will, subject to EU approval, inject up to EUR4bn of capital into the bank. Fitch considers that, combined with measures already taken and other measures announced but not yet implemented, this new capital should help Anglo meet the challenges of severe asset quality problems, revenue generation, restoring confidence and fulfilling minimum regulatory capital requirements.

Holders of senior and dated subordinated debt remain protected by a guarantee provided by the Irish government until end-September 2010.

The securities affected are as follows:
Upper tier 2
GBP300m ISIN XS0231391623 Tier 1
GBP200m ISIN XS0131475666
GBP250m ISIN XS0151811253
GBP350m ISIN XS0292425344
EUR600m ISIN XS0268814125 Anglo's ratings are affirmed as follows:
Long-term Issuer Default (IDR): 'A-'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: 'F1+'
Individual rating: 'F'
Support rating: '1'
Support Rating Floor: 'A-'
Senior unsecured debt maturing before 29 September 2010: 'AA+'
Senior unsecured debt maturing after 29 September 2010: 'A-'
Dated subordinated debt: 'BBB+'
 

solenoide

Forumer storico
Irlanda altro downgrade :-(

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1PUvncXfGCo


June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland had its credit rating lowered for the second time this year by Standard & Poor’s, which cited the nation’s rising bill for propping up its banks.
The rating was cut one step to AA, from AA+, S&P said in a statement today, moving it to the same level as Japan, Slovenia and the United Arab Emirates. The rating company assigned a “negative” outlook to the grade, signaling it’s more likely to cut it again than leave it unchanged or raise it. S&P removed Ireland’s AAA rating in March this year.
“Ireland has many, many problems and we continue to view it as the weakest fiscal risk in the European Monetary Union, but investors should not leap to the view that this is an Iceland in disguise,” Harvinder Sian, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, wrote in a research note.
The difference in yield, or spread, between Irish and benchmark German 10-year government bonds rose 2 basis points in the wake of the rating change, climbing to 202 basis points. When Ireland lost its top grade, the spread jumped to 284 basis points on March 19, the most in 10 years, compared with an average of 22 basis points the previous decade.
“The fiscal costs to the government of supporting the Irish banking system will be significantly higher than what we had expected when we last lowered the rating in March 2009,” David Beers, head of sovereign ratings at S&P in London, said in a statement. “Consequently, the net general government debt burden will also be significantly higher over the medium term.”
Shrinking Economy
Ireland’s economy is shrinking at the fastest pace among euro-area nations, curbing tax revenue at the same time as the government finances bank-rescue efforts. S&P said the cost of rescuing the banks may rise to as much as 25 billion euros ($34.6 billion), against its previous forecast of between 15 billion euros and 20 billion euros.
“Concerns about the health of the economy and financial sector are going to be with us for some considerable time,” said Austin Hughes, chief economist with KBC Bank Ireland in Dublin. “It’s understandable that people are seeing the risks still skewed this way but perhaps we are a little bit past the worst.”
The cost of protecting Irish government debt increased after the downgrade. Credit-default swaps climbed 7.5 basis points to 222 basis points, according to CMA DataVision prices.
Credit-default swaps, conceived to protect investors from default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase signals a deterioration in the perception of credit quality.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Last Updated: June 8, 2009 06:56 EDT
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Eccolo il downgrade di S&P al rating sovrano irlandese... Per l'agenzia, sarà più elevato del previsto il costo fiscale del salvataggio del sistema bancario ed inoltre il fardello del debito pubblico rischia di accrescersi notevolmente nel medio termine rispetto alle precedenti previsioni di S&P.

Comincia a proporsi anche qui il problema della coperta troppo corta: se alzi le tasse per salvare le banche acuisci e prolunghi la già pesante crisi economica, se non lo fai il debito pubblico rischia di raggiungere vette molto elevate, penalizza il rating sovrano e soprattutto resta sulle spalle delle future generazioni, comprimendo la crescita economica per molti anni a venire.

Qui si parla di 90 mld euro di asset bancari da ricomprare da parte di un'agenzia pubblica (in veste di bad bank) ad uno sconto sul nominale molto forte, ad un costo di 55-75 mld euro da finanziare mediante emissioni di debito pubblico... :eek:

Ma il PIL irlandese che valori ha ? Sono pur sempre meno gli irlandesi che gli abitanti della provincia di Roma...

Per S&P l'operazione ha un rischio elevato per le finanze pubbliche in quanto gli asset acquistati (CDO's bonds) potrebbero generare flussi di cassa inadeguati a ripagare il capitale a scadenza, nonostante il beneficio di un prezzo pagato inferiore al valore nominale dei titoli.

A conti fatti, il debito pubblico netto irlandese potrebbe eccedere il 100%del PIL nel medio termine, visto peraltro che le perdite accusate dalla nazionalizzata Anglo Irish Bank negli ultimi sei mesi si sono rivelate molto superiori al previsto e dunque un analogo deterioramento non è da escludere per le altre banche (le quali, finché non nazionalizzate, possono nascondere immondizia sotto il tappeto, alla bisogna, ma una volta che fossero nazionalizzate... :cool:)

Insomma, all'orizzonte non é ambiguo dire che si intravedere un rischio di scenari di tipo islandese...

Ireland Rating Lowered To 'AA' On Potential Fiscal Cost Of Weakening Banking Sector Asset Quality; Outlook Negative

-- Standard & Poor's has lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The outlook is negative.

-- We have lowered the long-term rating on Ireland because we believe that the fiscal costs to the government of supporting the Irish banking system will be significantly higher than what we had expected when we last lowered the rating in March 2009, and, consequently, that the net general government debt burden will also be significantly higher over the medium term.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 8, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it had lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's has affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the Republic.

"We have lowered the long-term rating on Ireland because we believe that the fiscal costs to the government of supporting the Irish banking system will be significantly higher than what we had expected when we last lowered the rating in March 2009, and, consequently, that the net general government debt burden will also be significantly higher over the medium term," Standard & Poor's credit analyst David Beers said. "Our revised opinion follows the recent announcement by Anglo Irish Bank of losses at the upper end of Standard & Poor's expectations, as well as the government's announced intentions regarding the scope of the operations of the new National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), which is set to play an important role in bolstering the financial health of the Irish banking system."

Under the government's plans, up to €90 billion of performing and impaired property-related exposures and associated commercial lending will be transferred from Irish banks to NAMA (which we understand will be established under legislation expected to come into effect in September 2009). The government also expects NAMA to acquire the assets at a significant discount to their current face value, with market estimates we have seen of the projected cost, based on average purchase prices, currently in the range of €55–€75 billion. The purchase of these assets, in turn, is to be financed by the issuance of government bonds.

The government has announced that its objective is for NAMA to pay down some or all of this additional debt in future years from the proceeds of maturing loans and from asset disposals and recoveries.

In our view, NAMA's ability to minimize the cost to the government of its financial operations will depend on the prices it pays for the assets and their future performance. We consider that NAMA's ability to meet its
financial objectives is uncertain because of the risk that cash flows from its assets could fall below its funding costs if their underlying performance worsens compared with NAMA's expectations at the time of purchase.

At the same time, we believe the recently announced losses (for the six months to the end of March 2009) at nationalized Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Ltd. (A-/Watch Neg/A-1) highlight both the continued fragility of the Irish banking sector and its reliance on the government for ongoing financial support.

We also maintain our opinion that Irish real and nominal GDP is likely to remain below 2008 levels until 2013.

Taking these factors and NAMA's likely borrowings into account, along with our revised estimate of recapitalization costs to the government of €20-€25 billion (compared with our previous estimate of €15-€20 billion), we now believe that Ireland's net general government debt could exceed 100% of GDP over the medium term-–a level that is higher than for Ireland's 'AA' rated Euro-zone sovereign peers.

"The rating could be lowered again if asset quality in the Irish banking system deteriorates at a faster pace than we expect and if, as a result of its support for the sector or due to an even more pronounced downturn in economic growth, the government's fiscal performance weakens further than we currently assume," Mr. Beers said. "The ratings could also be lowered if the average maturity of the government's debt shortens materially for a sustained period.

Conversely, the outlook could be revised to stable if the Irish banking sector stabilizes more quickly and at a lower fiscal cost to the government than we now think likely."
 

lupomar

Forumer attivo
Irlanda, per bond 10 anni sindacato, rendimento +215-225 pb MS
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Reuters - 22/06/2009 13:38:06
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LONDON, 23 giugno (Reuters) - L'Irlanda ha aperto oggi i book per la raccolta ordini del suo bond a 10 anni da collocare via sindacato.

La prima ipotesi di rendimento è di 215-225 pb sopra il tasso del midswap corrispondente, ha detto stamane Ifr, un servizio online di Thomson Reuters di notizie e analisi di mercato.

A guida dell'operazione ci sono sei banche: Barclays (BARC.L), BNP Paribas, Citigroup (C.N), Davy's, ING e Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L).

La scadenza del bond è su ottobre 2019. L'agenzia per la gestione del debito irlandese ha detto venerdì che intende raccogliere con il decennale circa 3 miliardi di euro.

A fine mattinata gli ordini hanno superato i 4 mld di euro, dice Ifr.

L'Irlanda ha già emesso via sondacato titoli di stato con scadenza 2012 e 2014 ripsettivemanet in gennaio e febbraio.
 

yellow

Forumer attivo
Titanic irlandese ( che se non era in Europa.....) :

Irlanda, allarme-banche del Fmi: perdite a 35 miliardi di euro - 25/06/2009

Il Fondo monetario internazionale ha stimato ieri le perdite complessive del sistema bancario irlandese...

Il Fondo monetario internazionale ha stimato ieri le perdite complessive del sistema bancario irlandese,
che ammonteranno alla cifra record di 35 miliardi di euro alla fine del prossimo anno.

Per questo, l'istituto ha invocato uno sforzo decisivo per ripristinare la stabilità del settore nel Paese.


Nel suo rapporto annuale sull'economia irlandese - riferisce l'agenzia Reuters - lo staff del Fmi ha spiegato inoltre che l'agenzia creata dalle autorità di Dublino per inglobare i "bad loand"
dovrebbe essere estesa a tutti i titoli tossici degli istituti di credito.

Il riferimento è alla National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), che ha il compito di stabilizzare il sistema finanziario irlandese, e soprattutto di consentire alle banche di ripristinare il flusso del credito.
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(Valori.it )
 

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