Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
bosmeld
Forumer storico
semplicemente non paga la cedola per quest'anno.
cmq non è persa le cumula, se l'anno prossimo pagheranno la cedola ti daranno anche quella dell'anno passato
stube
Nuovo forumer
Grazie, sapevo che se la cedola non dovrebbe essere persa ma soltanto rimandata. Dalla tua risposta mi sembra di capire che la decisione di non pagare la cedola quest'anno era stata già presa.
c0ltran3
Forumer attivo
March 31, 2010
Ireland aims to salvage its stricken banks ‘once and for all’
The Irish Government will inject billions of euros into the country’s stricken banking sector by putting a large chunk of the lenders’ problem loans into a “bad bank”.
Ireland’s central bank and financial regulator also laid out plans to force five banks and building societies to raise almost €20 billion (£17.8 billion) in new capital by the end of the year to bolster their financial strength.
The group of banks and building societies will put loans, many of which were to property companies at the height of the construction bubble, with a book value of €16 billion into the bad bank, called the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).
After a day of volatile trading in Irish banking shares, the regulator and central bank released a statement after the market closed saying that, in return, the Irish Government would provide securities worth €8.5 billion to the banks.
This makes the reduction — or “haircut” — that the banks must take on their assets an average of 47 per cent. This is larger than the 30 per cent expected by the market.
Brian Lenihan, the Irish Finance Minister, asserted that the deal struck with the financial institutions would draw a line under the banking crisis “once and for all”.
Nama said that it expected to purchase a total of €81 billion in loans by the end of February 2011, in a move that will see it owning huge swaths of property in Ireland and the UK, including the Battersea power station.
The plan is also the precursor to another round of capital raisings by the Irish banks, through which the state’s ownership of the sector will rise substantially.
In outlining the deal, Mr Lenihan laid bare the dire state of Anglo Irish Bank, the only big lender in the Republic that has been nationalised. He said that he understood the public’s desire to “obliterate from the system” the scandal-hit lender, but that winding it up was “never a viable option”.
Closing down Anglo could cost taxpayers €60 billion by having to sell assets in a fire sale and in other wind-up costs, Mr Lenihan said.
Anglo will put €10 billion of loans into Nama at a 50 per cent discount. The bank must raise €8.3 billion in new capital immediately, which may be followed by another capital injection of about €10 billion, Mr Lenihan said.
Allied Irish Banks has been ordered to raise €7.4 billion in capital, but may be able to achieve that in part by selling assets, including its business banking franchise in the UK, its stake in the America lender M&T and its Polish division.
Analysts expect the Irish Government’s stake in Allied, at present an effective 25 per cent holding through preference shares, to rise to majority control as part of the capital raising.
Bank of Ireland, which must raise €2.7 billion, is expected to announce plans today for a rights issue and a debt-for-equity swap that would achieve most of the capital strengthening.
The Government’s stake is expected to rise to about 40 per cent from its present level of a 15.7 per cent direct holding and a 25 per cent indirect holding through preference shares.
Ireland aims to salvage its stricken banks ‘once and for all’
The Irish Government will inject billions of euros into the country’s stricken banking sector by putting a large chunk of the lenders’ problem loans into a “bad bank”.
Ireland’s central bank and financial regulator also laid out plans to force five banks and building societies to raise almost €20 billion (£17.8 billion) in new capital by the end of the year to bolster their financial strength.
The group of banks and building societies will put loans, many of which were to property companies at the height of the construction bubble, with a book value of €16 billion into the bad bank, called the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).
After a day of volatile trading in Irish banking shares, the regulator and central bank released a statement after the market closed saying that, in return, the Irish Government would provide securities worth €8.5 billion to the banks.
This makes the reduction — or “haircut” — that the banks must take on their assets an average of 47 per cent. This is larger than the 30 per cent expected by the market.
Brian Lenihan, the Irish Finance Minister, asserted that the deal struck with the financial institutions would draw a line under the banking crisis “once and for all”.
Nama said that it expected to purchase a total of €81 billion in loans by the end of February 2011, in a move that will see it owning huge swaths of property in Ireland and the UK, including the Battersea power station.
The plan is also the precursor to another round of capital raisings by the Irish banks, through which the state’s ownership of the sector will rise substantially.
In outlining the deal, Mr Lenihan laid bare the dire state of Anglo Irish Bank, the only big lender in the Republic that has been nationalised. He said that he understood the public’s desire to “obliterate from the system” the scandal-hit lender, but that winding it up was “never a viable option”.
Closing down Anglo could cost taxpayers €60 billion by having to sell assets in a fire sale and in other wind-up costs, Mr Lenihan said.
Anglo will put €10 billion of loans into Nama at a 50 per cent discount. The bank must raise €8.3 billion in new capital immediately, which may be followed by another capital injection of about €10 billion, Mr Lenihan said.
Allied Irish Banks has been ordered to raise €7.4 billion in capital, but may be able to achieve that in part by selling assets, including its business banking franchise in the UK, its stake in the America lender M&T and its Polish division.
Analysts expect the Irish Government’s stake in Allied, at present an effective 25 per cent holding through preference shares, to rise to majority control as part of the capital raising.
Bank of Ireland, which must raise €2.7 billion, is expected to announce plans today for a rights issue and a debt-for-equity swap that would achieve most of the capital strengthening.
The Government’s stake is expected to rise to about 40 per cent from its present level of a 15.7 per cent direct holding and a 25 per cent indirect holding through preference shares.
lupomar
Forumer attivo
Non proprio ottime news, ma almeno la B. of Ireland è quella messa meglio.
In Irlanda 8,5 miliardi per far tornare i conti delle banche - Il Sole 24 ORE
30 marzo 2010
In Irlanda 8,5 miliardi
per far tornare i conti delle banche
Il governo irlandese ha annunciato un vasto piano di salvataggio delle banche. La National Asset Management Agency (Nama) ha annunciato che acquisterà prestiti sofferenti da istituti operanti nel paese a un sconto medio del 47%. Il valore nominale di questi asset è di circa 16 miliardi ma la Nama ne sborserà solo 8,5. Si tratta di una prima tranche di interventi nel quadro di un pacchetto più ampio d'interventi su asset tossici da decine di miliardi.
Per quanto riguarda il primo passo, la maggiore sforbiciata di prezzo (pari al 58%) riguarda prestiti attualmente in carico alla Nationwide Building Society mentre la minore é per asset della Bank Of Ireland Plc. In questo caso lo sconto è del 35%. Gli analisti si aspettavano sconti medi tra il 35-40 per cento, comunque già al di sopra del 30% indicato in un primo tempo dal governo di Dublino. Il forte ribasso sul prezzo indica dunque che il processo di risanamento di questi asset è ancora ben lungi dall'essere iniziato.
La Nama, che in totale mira a rilevare asset per un valore nominale di 81 miliardi di euro, ha reso noto che 4,9 miliardi che sta per prendere in carico vengono da istituti irlandesi mentre altri 3,2 provengono da istituti britannici. La Allied Irish Bank ha inoltre comunicato che dovrà raccogliere nuovi capitali per 7,4 miliardi mentre la Bank of Ireland necessita di 2,7 miliardi. La Anglo Irish Bank, di proprietà statale, dovrà invece ricevere nuovi capitali per 8,3 miliardi come misura a interim.
La pulizia dei bilanci è un passo necessario per procedere alla ricapitalizzazione delle banche irlandesi a cui verranno imposti stringenti vincoli sulla qualità del patrimonio. Il Core Tier 1 dovrà essere pari all'8% entro fine 2010, di cui circa l'88% (pari al 7% dell'attivo ponderato per il rischio) dovrà essere composto da capitale azionario.
Bank of Ireland: rosso da 1,46 miliardi - Economia - ANSA.it
Bank of Ireland: rosso da 1,46 miliardi
Allo studio un aumento di capitale da 2,7 mld di euro
31 marzo, 11:26
(ANSA) - ROMA, 31 MAR - Bank of Ireland ha allo studio un aumento di capitale da 2,7 miliardi di euro, dopo una perdita netta di 1,46 miliardi in 9 mesi del 2009. Una misura necessaria per far fronte ai piu' rigidi requisiti di capitale fissati ieri dalle autorita' irlandesi. Bank of Ireland ha avviato contatti per la raccolta fra gli investitori e ha assicurato di essere in grado di rastrellare capitali sufficienti, evitando il rafforzamento della partecipazione pubblica nell'istituto previsto dal piano del governo.
In Irlanda 8,5 miliardi per far tornare i conti delle banche - Il Sole 24 ORE
30 marzo 2010
In Irlanda 8,5 miliardi
per far tornare i conti delle banche
Il governo irlandese ha annunciato un vasto piano di salvataggio delle banche. La National Asset Management Agency (Nama) ha annunciato che acquisterà prestiti sofferenti da istituti operanti nel paese a un sconto medio del 47%. Il valore nominale di questi asset è di circa 16 miliardi ma la Nama ne sborserà solo 8,5. Si tratta di una prima tranche di interventi nel quadro di un pacchetto più ampio d'interventi su asset tossici da decine di miliardi.
Per quanto riguarda il primo passo, la maggiore sforbiciata di prezzo (pari al 58%) riguarda prestiti attualmente in carico alla Nationwide Building Society mentre la minore é per asset della Bank Of Ireland Plc. In questo caso lo sconto è del 35%. Gli analisti si aspettavano sconti medi tra il 35-40 per cento, comunque già al di sopra del 30% indicato in un primo tempo dal governo di Dublino. Il forte ribasso sul prezzo indica dunque che il processo di risanamento di questi asset è ancora ben lungi dall'essere iniziato.
La Nama, che in totale mira a rilevare asset per un valore nominale di 81 miliardi di euro, ha reso noto che 4,9 miliardi che sta per prendere in carico vengono da istituti irlandesi mentre altri 3,2 provengono da istituti britannici. La Allied Irish Bank ha inoltre comunicato che dovrà raccogliere nuovi capitali per 7,4 miliardi mentre la Bank of Ireland necessita di 2,7 miliardi. La Anglo Irish Bank, di proprietà statale, dovrà invece ricevere nuovi capitali per 8,3 miliardi come misura a interim.
La pulizia dei bilanci è un passo necessario per procedere alla ricapitalizzazione delle banche irlandesi a cui verranno imposti stringenti vincoli sulla qualità del patrimonio. Il Core Tier 1 dovrà essere pari all'8% entro fine 2010, di cui circa l'88% (pari al 7% dell'attivo ponderato per il rischio) dovrà essere composto da capitale azionario.
Bank of Ireland: rosso da 1,46 miliardi - Economia - ANSA.it
Bank of Ireland: rosso da 1,46 miliardi
Allo studio un aumento di capitale da 2,7 mld di euro
31 marzo, 11:26
lupomar
Forumer attivo
Comunque ieri BANK OF IRELAND ha guadagna oltre il 26%, recuperando le pesanti perdite degli ultimi due giorni, dopo l'annuncio che l'istituto raccoglierà privatamente il nuovo capitale, diventando così l'unico istituto a non avere bisogno di nuovi aiuti statali. La banca ha inoltre previsto che le sofferenza sui prestiti inizieranno a calare da quest'anno. ALLIED IRISH BANK sale di oltre l'8%.
Guardare il grafico di questa banca fa comunque venire il mal di mare...
Guardare il grafico di questa banca fa comunque venire il mal di mare...
Allegati
Giontra
Forumer storico
http://about.reuters.com/productinfo/index.aspxIrlanda, Fitch: rating AA- è "sempre più appropriato"
giovedì 1 aprile 2010 17:09 DUBLINO (Reuters) - Il rating AA- dell'Irlanda si sta dimostrando sempre più appropriato e il lancio della "bad bank" e i piani di ricapitalizazione del settore non hanno modificato il quadro, secondo Fitch Ratings.
"Dal punto di vista sovrano, in parte è una buona notizia, in parte cattiva ma nel complesso non altera la nostra opinione né il nostro rating né il nostro outlook", ha detto in un'intervista a Reuters Chris Pryce, direttore Fitch per i rating in Europa occidentale.
"Il rating si sta sempre più dimostrando appropriato", ha aggiunto con riferimento al giudizio di Fitch AA- con outlook stabile.
La "bad bank" dell'Irlanda, la National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), questa settimana ha iniziato ad acquistare prestiti immobiliari dalle banche a uno sconto più alto del previsto.
giovedì 1 aprile 2010 17:09 DUBLINO (Reuters) - Il rating AA- dell'Irlanda si sta dimostrando sempre più appropriato e il lancio della "bad bank" e i piani di ricapitalizazione del settore non hanno modificato il quadro, secondo Fitch Ratings.
"Dal punto di vista sovrano, in parte è una buona notizia, in parte cattiva ma nel complesso non altera la nostra opinione né il nostro rating né il nostro outlook", ha detto in un'intervista a Reuters Chris Pryce, direttore Fitch per i rating in Europa occidentale.
"Il rating si sta sempre più dimostrando appropriato", ha aggiunto con riferimento al giudizio di Fitch AA- con outlook stabile.
La "bad bank" dell'Irlanda, la National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), questa settimana ha iniziato ad acquistare prestiti immobiliari dalle banche a uno sconto più alto del previsto.
Giontra
Forumer storico
Irlanda, bad bank aiuta a chiarire posizione rating - Moody's
giovedì 1 aprile 2010 11:59 DUBLINO (Reuters) - La creazione di una band bank da parte del governo irlandese rende più semplice definire a quale livello nell'ambito della doppia 'A' il rating dell'Irlanda si collochi. A dirlo è l'agenzia di rating Moody's.
"L'agenzia irlandese per la gestione degli attivi (Nama) è un meccanismo ingegnoso - con numerosi precedenti di successo in altri paesi", si legge in una nota.
Per le finanze pubbliche irlandesi, tuttavia, la creazione della Nama rappresenta un "esercizio di equilibrismo".
La Nama acquisterà crediti da banche e società di costruzioni irlandesi applicando un forte sconto.
Moody's assegna all'Irlanda rating 'Aa1' con outlook negativo.
giovedì 1 aprile 2010 11:59 DUBLINO (Reuters) - La creazione di una band bank da parte del governo irlandese rende più semplice definire a quale livello nell'ambito della doppia 'A' il rating dell'Irlanda si collochi. A dirlo è l'agenzia di rating Moody's.
"L'agenzia irlandese per la gestione degli attivi (Nama) è un meccanismo ingegnoso - con numerosi precedenti di successo in altri paesi", si legge in una nota.
Per le finanze pubbliche irlandesi, tuttavia, la creazione della Nama rappresenta un "esercizio di equilibrismo".
La Nama acquisterà crediti da banche e società di costruzioni irlandesi applicando un forte sconto.
Moody's assegna all'Irlanda rating 'Aa1' con outlook negativo.
Imark
Forumer storico
Questa la posizione si S&P su Allied Irish dopo la maxiperdita annunciata di recente e la ricapitalizzazione da parte del governo irlandese.
Anglo Irish Bank Corp. 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Remain On Watch Neg After Major Loss And Further Government Capital Injection
today commented on its CreditWatch status of Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Ltd.
(Anglo). The 'BBB/A-2' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on
Anglo remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed
on Jan. 26, 2010. In addition, we lowered the ratings on Anglo's nondeferrable
subordinated debt to 'B' from 'BB+'.
These rating actions follow several announcements from the government of
Ireland (the Republic of Ireland is rated AA/Negative/A-1+) and the Irish
Financial Regulator relating to revised capital requirements for the sector
and the recapitalization of the Irish banking system (for more information,
see "Government Announcements Allow A Clearer View Of Irish Banks'
Recapitalization Plans," published today on RatingsDirect), as well as the
reporting of the bank's own financial results for the 15 months to Dec. 31,
2009.
The Irish government, Anglo's sole shareholder, has announced an
additional capital injection of €8.3 billion into Anglo, in the form of a
promissory note, to offset Anglo's €12.8 billion pretax loss. This loss,
covering the 15 months to Dec. 31, 2009 after a change in accounting period,
was due to loan losses of ?15.1 billion and strained pre-provision
profitability. The reported loss includes the benefit of €1.8 billion in gains
arising from Anglo's liability management exercise in 2009.
"Our ratings on Anglo reflect our expectation of ongoing support from the
Irish government, as it attempts to rebuild a viable business franchise," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Claire Curtin. The government has already
demonstrated significant support to date, through equity injections and
specific funding support. Anglo was in receipt of €24 billion of central bank
funding at Dec. 31, 2009, of which half related to regular market operations
by the European Central Bank, and the balance special funding lines from the
Central Bank of Ireland. We expect further support in the provision of Anglo's
ongoing funding requirements (although these should decline as the bank
receives repo-able government bonds through NAMA transfers), as well as the
indicated capital support to be provided to ensure Anglo meets its regulatory
capital requirements.
We plan to resolve the CreditWatch placement following the outcome of the
European Commission (EC) review of Anglo's restructuring plan. We understand
this may occur in the first half of 2010.
When we know the EC's decision, we will then assess the expected
medium-term financial and business profiles of Anglo, the level of support we
consider Anglo is likely to receive from the Irish government, as well as
Anglo's intentions regarding its various classes of debt instruments.
Anglo Irish Bank Corp. 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Remain On Watch Neg After Major Loss And Further Government Capital Injection
- Anglo Irish Bank Corp. has reported a €12.8 billion pretax loss for 2009,
and a further €8.3 billion capital injection from the Republic of Ireland. - We are therefore keeping our 'BBB/A-2' ratings on Anglo on CreditWatch
with negative implications, where they were placed on Jan. 26, 2010. - We are lowering our ratings on Anglo's nondeferrable subordinated debt to
'B' from 'BB+' - The CreditWatch status reflects our view of downside risks from Anglo's
restructuring plan, which the European Commission is currently
considering.
today commented on its CreditWatch status of Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Ltd.
(Anglo). The 'BBB/A-2' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on
Anglo remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed
on Jan. 26, 2010. In addition, we lowered the ratings on Anglo's nondeferrable
subordinated debt to 'B' from 'BB+'.
These rating actions follow several announcements from the government of
Ireland (the Republic of Ireland is rated AA/Negative/A-1+) and the Irish
Financial Regulator relating to revised capital requirements for the sector
and the recapitalization of the Irish banking system (for more information,
see "Government Announcements Allow A Clearer View Of Irish Banks'
Recapitalization Plans," published today on RatingsDirect), as well as the
reporting of the bank's own financial results for the 15 months to Dec. 31,
2009.
The Irish government, Anglo's sole shareholder, has announced an
additional capital injection of €8.3 billion into Anglo, in the form of a
promissory note, to offset Anglo's €12.8 billion pretax loss. This loss,
covering the 15 months to Dec. 31, 2009 after a change in accounting period,
was due to loan losses of ?15.1 billion and strained pre-provision
profitability. The reported loss includes the benefit of €1.8 billion in gains
arising from Anglo's liability management exercise in 2009.
"Our ratings on Anglo reflect our expectation of ongoing support from the
Irish government, as it attempts to rebuild a viable business franchise," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Claire Curtin. The government has already
demonstrated significant support to date, through equity injections and
specific funding support. Anglo was in receipt of €24 billion of central bank
funding at Dec. 31, 2009, of which half related to regular market operations
by the European Central Bank, and the balance special funding lines from the
Central Bank of Ireland. We expect further support in the provision of Anglo's
ongoing funding requirements (although these should decline as the bank
receives repo-able government bonds through NAMA transfers), as well as the
indicated capital support to be provided to ensure Anglo meets its regulatory
capital requirements.
We plan to resolve the CreditWatch placement following the outcome of the
European Commission (EC) review of Anglo's restructuring plan. We understand
this may occur in the first half of 2010.
When we know the EC's decision, we will then assess the expected
medium-term financial and business profiles of Anglo, the level of support we
consider Anglo is likely to receive from the Irish government, as well as
Anglo's intentions regarding its various classes of debt instruments.
Imark
Forumer storico
I provvedimenti adottati da Moody's in conseguenza dell'annuncio sul livello di sconto sul nominale applicato dal Nama sui loans ed asset immobiliari delle banche irlandesi presi in carico dall'agenzia.
Moody's: NAMA triggers mostly positive actions on Irish Banks' BFSR's
Actions follow Government, NAMA and Financial Regulator announcements
London, 31 March 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service today took positive rating actions on certain Irish banks following the concerted actions taken by various Irish authorities to strengthen these banks and remove their exposure to the most toxic real estate assets. The announcements included details from the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) on the discount to be applied on the first tranche of loans to be transferred from banks to NAMA, the announcement from the Irish Government regarding its recapitalisation plans for the banking sector, and a statement from the Financial Regulator on its revised (and much stricter) capital requirements.
The rating changes are as follows:
Bank of Ireland ("BoI") and ICS Building Society -- the D bank financial strength ratings (BFSR -- mapping to a baseline credit assessment of Ba2) are placed on review for possible upgrade, previously they had a developing outlook.
Allied Irish Banks ("AIB") -- the outlook on the D BFSR is changed to positive from developing.
EBS Building Society ("EBS") -- the outlook on the D BFSR is changed to positive from developing and the non-cumulative tier 1 instruments are downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
Irish Nationwide Building Society ("INBS")-- the outlook on the E+ BFSR (BCA: B3) is changed to stable concluding the review (with uncertain direction) that had been initiated on December 9, 2009.
There are no rating implications at the present time for Anglo Irish Bank ("Anglo"); its A3/P-1 long- and short term debt and deposit ratings remain under review for possible downgrade, and the E BFSR has a stable outlook at the bottom of that scale.
Ross Abercromby, a Vice President and lead analyst for Irish banks at Moody's commented: "Yesterday's announcements by the Irish authorities constitute an important milestone for the Irish banking system. Unless there should be a significant further deterioration in the wider Irish economy, the actions taken by NAMA, the government and the regulator should have put the bank's intrinsic credit profiles on a much more resilient footing. These actions ensure that banks have to clean up their balance sheets, but also need to recapitalise to adequate levels, which the government is ultimately willing to underwrite. This will put the banks in a better position to finance a return to economic growth, which in turn should help avoid a significant further economic deterioration. Overall, this is both positive for banks' intrinsic credit strength as well for the wider economy."
Ross Abercromby continued: " The review for possible upgrade for Bank of Ireland and the outlook changes to positive for Allied Irish Banks and EBS Building Society reflect our expectation that the inflection point in these bank's intrinsic credit profile should have been achieved. The debt and deposit ratings for all these banks are primarily driven by the significant amount of systemic support and therefore are not affected by these changes to banks' standalone ratings".
NAMA-IMPOSED DISCOUNTS BETWEEN 35% TO 58%, STRESS TESTS AND SUBSEQUENT RECAPITALISATION REQUIREMENTS ARE POSITIVE FOR BANKS
Yesterday's announcement by NAMA has detailed the discount to book value at which the first tranche of development and property loans will be transferred from the banks to NAMA: The discount ranges between 35% for Bank of Ireland to 58% at Irish Nationwide. This reflects the extremely difficult economic environment in Ireland, the approximate 50% fall in the value of Irish commercial property and the differences in the underwriting and composition of the loan books of the individual entities.
Furthermore, the regulator has laid out new capital requirements for Irish banks. These include a target level for core tier 1 capital of 8% after deducting impairments on non-NAMA assets as well as a core-Tier 1 ratio of at least 4% after further deducting hypothetical stress losses through to 2012.
Thirdly, the government has announced that while preferring private solutions to the subsequent capital requirements, e.g. via asset sales, public offerings etc, it is willing to underwrite the necessary capital injections to an amount of more than EUR 21 billion where necessary.
Moody's had already incorporated similar levels of expected losses into the BFSRs of the entities participating in NAMA, which in turn had been a key factor behind the downgrades of the banks' BFSRs to subinvestment-grade levels in April 2009. Overall, these impairments largely correspond to Moody's own base case scenario of expected losses especially when taking into consideration earlier capital injections (EUR 11 billion in 2009 by the Irish government) and exposure reductions by some of the affected banks. Therefore, the primary rating impact of yesterday's combined announcements by NAMA, the government and the regulator is positive for most banks' standalone BFSR.
NO IMPACT ON DEPOSIT AND SENIOR DEBT RATINGS
Importantly for the bank deposit and senior debt ratings the Irish government continues to be extremely supportive and this is the key factor in the high levels of uplift incorporated into the senior ratings of the banks that range from A1 for Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland to Baa3 (on review with uncertain direction) for Irish Nationwide. Moody's noted that the statement by the Irish government included confirmation that capital will be provided for those institutions who as a result of the transfers to NAMA, loan losses on other assets and the newly announced minimum capital levels required by the Financial Regulator, have a need for capital infusions. Given the differing needs and corporate structures the way in which the capital is injected may differ but Moody's continues to view the government as being extremely supportive.
DETAILS ON THE RATING ACTIONS
REVIEW FOR UPGRADE OF THE BFSR OF BANK OF IRELAND
Bank of Ireland's D BFSR is placed on review for possible upgrade. The regulator is requiring the bank to raise a further EUR2.7 billion of equity. Bank of Ireland is unlikely to require further capital from the Irish government and has indicated that it will be able to raise capital from private shareholders and through the conversion of an element of the government's preference shares. The review will focus on i) the capital plan of the bank, including the quantum of capital that is raised and the capital structure of the bank post any conversion of the government preference shares, as well as ii) the degree to which the capital injection sufficiently offsets the remaining risks in its books, which will require a more detailed comparison of the performed stresses and impairments to Moody's own stress scenarios. An important part of the review will also be the conclusion of the bank's negotiations with the European Commission over its restructuring plan which has been lodged as a result of the State Aid the bank has received. Moody's also highlights that Bank of Ireland's strong Irish franchise has been relatively unaffected by the crisis and that it still has an element of geographic diversification through its UK operations.
The D BFSR of ICS Building Society, BoI's Irish mortgage lending subsidiary, is also placed on review for possible upgrade, in line with its parent.
ALLIED IRISH BFSR OUTLOOK CHANGED TO POSITIVE
The change in the outlook to positive from developing on the D BFSR of Allied Irish reflects the stronger position that the bank will be in as a result of the capital to be raised. The bank will raise EUR7.4 billion of equity as required by the regulator and this will put the bank in a much improved position. Although the bank's franchise will be more focused on Ireland in the future as the first part of its capital raising will involve the sale of its investments in Poland (Bank Zachodni WBK), the USA (M&T) and its UK subsidiary, Moody's believes it will remain one of the two predominant banks in Ireland. However, the significantly higher degree of impairment in its books as compared to BoI indicates that more fundamental changes to its underwriting and risk culture are required, therefore resulting in a more drawn-out trajectory of improvement. An important element in the positive outlook and overall rating levels of the BFSR and long-term debt ratings is Moody's understanding that if the bank is unable to raise the remaining capital requirement then the bank will be able to convert some or all of the government's EUR3.5 billion preference share investment in the bank. Furthermore, Moody's believes that if further capital was needed beyond the currently envisaged amounts the government would also provide it.
EBS BUILDING SOCIETY'S BFSR OUTLOOK CHANGED TO POSITIVE; TIER 1 INSTRUMENTS DOWNGRADED TO Caa1 FROM B3
The change in the outlook to positive from developing on the D BFSR of EBS reflects the stronger position that the society will be in as a result of the capital that will be injected. The society is required to raise EUR875 million of equity by the regulator. As detailed by the government there is the potential for an investment in the society by a third party, however if this does not materialise then the capital will be provided by the Irish government. In Moody's opinion EBS has a good franchise in Ireland and the main issue at the society has been the small development loan portfolio. With the transfer to NAMA of these loans and the resulting capital increase the society should be relatively well placed to maintain its position as a key retail financial service provider in Ireland. Moody's notes however that the society will be required to submit a restructuring plan to the European Commission which could result in some further restructuring requirements being imposed. EBS is also involved in potential merger negotiations with Irish Nationwide Building Society and if the merger was to go ahead -- only after INBS has been cleaned up, as Moody's understands -- then an important element of EBS' ratings would be the integration of the smaller society into EBS.
The one notch downgrade to Caa1 from B3 on the tier 1 instruments of EBS reflects that as the society will now receive State Aid through the Special Investment Share, Moody's believes that the European Commission will request that the society does not make payments on its Tier 1 capital instruments unless it has a legal obligation to do so. The downgrade of the non-cumulative instruments last year to B3 was based on an expected-loss approach and reflected Moody's assumption that the society would likely omit coupons for at least a two-year period, in line with other European banks that have benefited from substantial State Aid. The further downgrade by one notch to Caa1 incorporates i) the higher level of certainty that EBS will receive State Aid as well as ii) the remaining uncertainty about the bank's financial strength beyond the 2-year time horizon, which also adds uncertainty about future coupon payments. At Caa1, the ratings are aligned with the ratings of comparable securities issued by BoI and AIB. The outlook for the securities is stable reflecting Moody's conservative expected loss assumptions in terms of the likelihood and time horizon of missed coupons, as well as the lower sensitivity of these instruments to the society's intrinsic financial strength.
CONCLUSION OF THE REVIEW -- DIRECTION UNCERTAIN ON THE E+ BFSR OF IRISH NATIONWIDE
The outlook on the E+ BFSR (BCA: B3) of Irish Nationwide is now stable reflecting the EUR2.7 billion capital injection into the society from the Irish government to ensure that it meets its minimum current capital requirements, and Moody's view that support will remain high for this institution. Similar to EBS the members of Irish Nationwide voted to provide the government with a Special Investment Share and this gives the Minister of Finance huge powers and is similar in scope to a nationalisation. Importantly the government has stated that its priority is to sell the entity or integrate it into another institution and therefore the Baa3/P-3 bank deposit and senior debt ratings of the institution remain on review -- direction uncertain, pending a sale or merger. If INBS does not merge with EBS, or another entity, in the near future then it is likely that the ratings would be downgraded to non-investment grade, reflecting the higher potential for losses at the end of the two-year guarantee period. This concludes the review on the BFSR that was initiated on December 9, 2009.
NO RATING IMPLICATIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME FOR ANGLO IRISH BANK
The bank deposit, senior debt, dated subordinated debt and junior subordinated debt ratings of Anglo Irish all remain on review for possible downgrade despite the announced capital injection of EUR 8.3 billion, as the key rating driver in Moody's view remains the bank's restructuring plan that is currently waiting EU approval. Moody's aims to complete the review of the bank's ratings following the conclusion of the European Commission's assessment of the bank's restructuring plan (See the Press Release "Moody's downgrades to Ba1 Anglo Irish Bank subordinated debt" published on March 1, 2010 for further details.)
Irish Life & Permanent (rated A2/P-1/D, negative) is not participating in NAMA as it does not have any development lending and therefore there are no rating implications for the bank.
....
The last rating action on AIB was on December 2, 2009 when the bank's non-cumulative tier 1 securities were downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
The last rating action on Anglo Irish Bank was on March 1, 2010 when the dated subordinated debt was downgraded to Ba1 from Baa1 and the review of the bank deposit ratings, the senior debt ratings, the dated subordinated debt rating and the junior subordinated debt rating was maintained.
The last rating action on BoI was on January 19, 2009 when the bank's non-cumulative tier 1 securities were downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
The last rating action on EBS was on July 7, 2009 when the backed senior debt guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (on review for possible downgrade.)
The last rating action on Irish Life & Permanent was on February 10, 2010 when the bank's junior subordinated debt rating was downgraded to Ba3 from Ba1. guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (on review for possible downgrade.)
The last rating action on INBS was on December 9, 2009 when the direction of the review on the Baa3/P-3 bank deposit and senior debt ratings, and the Ba1 subordinated debt rating was changed to direction uncertain from possible downgrade
Moody's: NAMA triggers mostly positive actions on Irish Banks' BFSR's
Actions follow Government, NAMA and Financial Regulator announcements
London, 31 March 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service today took positive rating actions on certain Irish banks following the concerted actions taken by various Irish authorities to strengthen these banks and remove their exposure to the most toxic real estate assets. The announcements included details from the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) on the discount to be applied on the first tranche of loans to be transferred from banks to NAMA, the announcement from the Irish Government regarding its recapitalisation plans for the banking sector, and a statement from the Financial Regulator on its revised (and much stricter) capital requirements.
The rating changes are as follows:
Bank of Ireland ("BoI") and ICS Building Society -- the D bank financial strength ratings (BFSR -- mapping to a baseline credit assessment of Ba2) are placed on review for possible upgrade, previously they had a developing outlook.
Allied Irish Banks ("AIB") -- the outlook on the D BFSR is changed to positive from developing.
EBS Building Society ("EBS") -- the outlook on the D BFSR is changed to positive from developing and the non-cumulative tier 1 instruments are downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
Irish Nationwide Building Society ("INBS")-- the outlook on the E+ BFSR (BCA: B3) is changed to stable concluding the review (with uncertain direction) that had been initiated on December 9, 2009.
There are no rating implications at the present time for Anglo Irish Bank ("Anglo"); its A3/P-1 long- and short term debt and deposit ratings remain under review for possible downgrade, and the E BFSR has a stable outlook at the bottom of that scale.
Ross Abercromby, a Vice President and lead analyst for Irish banks at Moody's commented: "Yesterday's announcements by the Irish authorities constitute an important milestone for the Irish banking system. Unless there should be a significant further deterioration in the wider Irish economy, the actions taken by NAMA, the government and the regulator should have put the bank's intrinsic credit profiles on a much more resilient footing. These actions ensure that banks have to clean up their balance sheets, but also need to recapitalise to adequate levels, which the government is ultimately willing to underwrite. This will put the banks in a better position to finance a return to economic growth, which in turn should help avoid a significant further economic deterioration. Overall, this is both positive for banks' intrinsic credit strength as well for the wider economy."
Ross Abercromby continued: " The review for possible upgrade for Bank of Ireland and the outlook changes to positive for Allied Irish Banks and EBS Building Society reflect our expectation that the inflection point in these bank's intrinsic credit profile should have been achieved. The debt and deposit ratings for all these banks are primarily driven by the significant amount of systemic support and therefore are not affected by these changes to banks' standalone ratings".
NAMA-IMPOSED DISCOUNTS BETWEEN 35% TO 58%, STRESS TESTS AND SUBSEQUENT RECAPITALISATION REQUIREMENTS ARE POSITIVE FOR BANKS
Yesterday's announcement by NAMA has detailed the discount to book value at which the first tranche of development and property loans will be transferred from the banks to NAMA: The discount ranges between 35% for Bank of Ireland to 58% at Irish Nationwide. This reflects the extremely difficult economic environment in Ireland, the approximate 50% fall in the value of Irish commercial property and the differences in the underwriting and composition of the loan books of the individual entities.
Furthermore, the regulator has laid out new capital requirements for Irish banks. These include a target level for core tier 1 capital of 8% after deducting impairments on non-NAMA assets as well as a core-Tier 1 ratio of at least 4% after further deducting hypothetical stress losses through to 2012.
Thirdly, the government has announced that while preferring private solutions to the subsequent capital requirements, e.g. via asset sales, public offerings etc, it is willing to underwrite the necessary capital injections to an amount of more than EUR 21 billion where necessary.
Moody's had already incorporated similar levels of expected losses into the BFSRs of the entities participating in NAMA, which in turn had been a key factor behind the downgrades of the banks' BFSRs to subinvestment-grade levels in April 2009. Overall, these impairments largely correspond to Moody's own base case scenario of expected losses especially when taking into consideration earlier capital injections (EUR 11 billion in 2009 by the Irish government) and exposure reductions by some of the affected banks. Therefore, the primary rating impact of yesterday's combined announcements by NAMA, the government and the regulator is positive for most banks' standalone BFSR.
NO IMPACT ON DEPOSIT AND SENIOR DEBT RATINGS
Importantly for the bank deposit and senior debt ratings the Irish government continues to be extremely supportive and this is the key factor in the high levels of uplift incorporated into the senior ratings of the banks that range from A1 for Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland to Baa3 (on review with uncertain direction) for Irish Nationwide. Moody's noted that the statement by the Irish government included confirmation that capital will be provided for those institutions who as a result of the transfers to NAMA, loan losses on other assets and the newly announced minimum capital levels required by the Financial Regulator, have a need for capital infusions. Given the differing needs and corporate structures the way in which the capital is injected may differ but Moody's continues to view the government as being extremely supportive.
DETAILS ON THE RATING ACTIONS
REVIEW FOR UPGRADE OF THE BFSR OF BANK OF IRELAND
Bank of Ireland's D BFSR is placed on review for possible upgrade. The regulator is requiring the bank to raise a further EUR2.7 billion of equity. Bank of Ireland is unlikely to require further capital from the Irish government and has indicated that it will be able to raise capital from private shareholders and through the conversion of an element of the government's preference shares. The review will focus on i) the capital plan of the bank, including the quantum of capital that is raised and the capital structure of the bank post any conversion of the government preference shares, as well as ii) the degree to which the capital injection sufficiently offsets the remaining risks in its books, which will require a more detailed comparison of the performed stresses and impairments to Moody's own stress scenarios. An important part of the review will also be the conclusion of the bank's negotiations with the European Commission over its restructuring plan which has been lodged as a result of the State Aid the bank has received. Moody's also highlights that Bank of Ireland's strong Irish franchise has been relatively unaffected by the crisis and that it still has an element of geographic diversification through its UK operations.
The D BFSR of ICS Building Society, BoI's Irish mortgage lending subsidiary, is also placed on review for possible upgrade, in line with its parent.
ALLIED IRISH BFSR OUTLOOK CHANGED TO POSITIVE
The change in the outlook to positive from developing on the D BFSR of Allied Irish reflects the stronger position that the bank will be in as a result of the capital to be raised. The bank will raise EUR7.4 billion of equity as required by the regulator and this will put the bank in a much improved position. Although the bank's franchise will be more focused on Ireland in the future as the first part of its capital raising will involve the sale of its investments in Poland (Bank Zachodni WBK), the USA (M&T) and its UK subsidiary, Moody's believes it will remain one of the two predominant banks in Ireland. However, the significantly higher degree of impairment in its books as compared to BoI indicates that more fundamental changes to its underwriting and risk culture are required, therefore resulting in a more drawn-out trajectory of improvement. An important element in the positive outlook and overall rating levels of the BFSR and long-term debt ratings is Moody's understanding that if the bank is unable to raise the remaining capital requirement then the bank will be able to convert some or all of the government's EUR3.5 billion preference share investment in the bank. Furthermore, Moody's believes that if further capital was needed beyond the currently envisaged amounts the government would also provide it.
EBS BUILDING SOCIETY'S BFSR OUTLOOK CHANGED TO POSITIVE; TIER 1 INSTRUMENTS DOWNGRADED TO Caa1 FROM B3
The change in the outlook to positive from developing on the D BFSR of EBS reflects the stronger position that the society will be in as a result of the capital that will be injected. The society is required to raise EUR875 million of equity by the regulator. As detailed by the government there is the potential for an investment in the society by a third party, however if this does not materialise then the capital will be provided by the Irish government. In Moody's opinion EBS has a good franchise in Ireland and the main issue at the society has been the small development loan portfolio. With the transfer to NAMA of these loans and the resulting capital increase the society should be relatively well placed to maintain its position as a key retail financial service provider in Ireland. Moody's notes however that the society will be required to submit a restructuring plan to the European Commission which could result in some further restructuring requirements being imposed. EBS is also involved in potential merger negotiations with Irish Nationwide Building Society and if the merger was to go ahead -- only after INBS has been cleaned up, as Moody's understands -- then an important element of EBS' ratings would be the integration of the smaller society into EBS.
The one notch downgrade to Caa1 from B3 on the tier 1 instruments of EBS reflects that as the society will now receive State Aid through the Special Investment Share, Moody's believes that the European Commission will request that the society does not make payments on its Tier 1 capital instruments unless it has a legal obligation to do so. The downgrade of the non-cumulative instruments last year to B3 was based on an expected-loss approach and reflected Moody's assumption that the society would likely omit coupons for at least a two-year period, in line with other European banks that have benefited from substantial State Aid. The further downgrade by one notch to Caa1 incorporates i) the higher level of certainty that EBS will receive State Aid as well as ii) the remaining uncertainty about the bank's financial strength beyond the 2-year time horizon, which also adds uncertainty about future coupon payments. At Caa1, the ratings are aligned with the ratings of comparable securities issued by BoI and AIB. The outlook for the securities is stable reflecting Moody's conservative expected loss assumptions in terms of the likelihood and time horizon of missed coupons, as well as the lower sensitivity of these instruments to the society's intrinsic financial strength.
CONCLUSION OF THE REVIEW -- DIRECTION UNCERTAIN ON THE E+ BFSR OF IRISH NATIONWIDE
The outlook on the E+ BFSR (BCA: B3) of Irish Nationwide is now stable reflecting the EUR2.7 billion capital injection into the society from the Irish government to ensure that it meets its minimum current capital requirements, and Moody's view that support will remain high for this institution. Similar to EBS the members of Irish Nationwide voted to provide the government with a Special Investment Share and this gives the Minister of Finance huge powers and is similar in scope to a nationalisation. Importantly the government has stated that its priority is to sell the entity or integrate it into another institution and therefore the Baa3/P-3 bank deposit and senior debt ratings of the institution remain on review -- direction uncertain, pending a sale or merger. If INBS does not merge with EBS, or another entity, in the near future then it is likely that the ratings would be downgraded to non-investment grade, reflecting the higher potential for losses at the end of the two-year guarantee period. This concludes the review on the BFSR that was initiated on December 9, 2009.
NO RATING IMPLICATIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME FOR ANGLO IRISH BANK
The bank deposit, senior debt, dated subordinated debt and junior subordinated debt ratings of Anglo Irish all remain on review for possible downgrade despite the announced capital injection of EUR 8.3 billion, as the key rating driver in Moody's view remains the bank's restructuring plan that is currently waiting EU approval. Moody's aims to complete the review of the bank's ratings following the conclusion of the European Commission's assessment of the bank's restructuring plan (See the Press Release "Moody's downgrades to Ba1 Anglo Irish Bank subordinated debt" published on March 1, 2010 for further details.)
Irish Life & Permanent (rated A2/P-1/D, negative) is not participating in NAMA as it does not have any development lending and therefore there are no rating implications for the bank.
....
The last rating action on AIB was on December 2, 2009 when the bank's non-cumulative tier 1 securities were downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
The last rating action on Anglo Irish Bank was on March 1, 2010 when the dated subordinated debt was downgraded to Ba1 from Baa1 and the review of the bank deposit ratings, the senior debt ratings, the dated subordinated debt rating and the junior subordinated debt rating was maintained.
The last rating action on BoI was on January 19, 2009 when the bank's non-cumulative tier 1 securities were downgraded to Caa1 from B3.
The last rating action on EBS was on July 7, 2009 when the backed senior debt guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (on review for possible downgrade.)
The last rating action on Irish Life & Permanent was on February 10, 2010 when the bank's junior subordinated debt rating was downgraded to Ba3 from Ba1. guaranteed by the Irish government was downgraded to Aa1 (negative outlook) from Aaa (on review for possible downgrade.)
The last rating action on INBS was on December 9, 2009 when the direction of the review on the Baa3/P-3 bank deposit and senior debt ratings, and the Ba1 subordinated debt rating was changed to direction uncertain from possible downgrade