Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Irlanda, 'bad bank' deve iniziare vendite immobiliari - Agenzia

venerdì 24 settembre 2010 11:35

DUBLINO, 24 settembre (Reuters) - La 'bad bank' irlandese, la National Asset Management Agency (Nama), deve cominciare a vedere i propri asset immobiliari al più presto. Lo ha detto il rnumero uno dell'agenzia governativa che supervisiona l'attività della Nama.
"È essenziale che la Nama si muova il più presto possibile per iniziare la vendita degli asset" ha affermato John Corrigan, AD dell'agenzia del debito irlandese, la Ntma, sotto la cui egida opera la Nama.
"Siamo ragionevolmente fiduciosi sulla possibilità di vedere progressi in tempi ragionevolmente brevi" ha aggiunto Corrigan, nel corso di una conferenza.
La Nama fu istituita l'anno scorso per gestire 81 miliardi di euro di prestiti immobiliari in sofferenza delle banche e studiata per tenere gli asset sottostanti per un periodo fino a 10 anni, per evitare di inondare il mercato col suo enorme portafoglio.
Corrigan ha poi affermato che i timori sulle necessità di finanziamento a breve delle banche irlandesi sono eccessivi e che le autortià sono pronte a coprire ogni eventuiale ammanco.
"I timori riguardo alle banche sono simili a quelli per il millennium bug" ha affermato il numero uno della National Treasury Management Agency."Tutti pensavamo che gli aerei sarebbero caduti, i treni si sarebbero fermati e gli orologi avrebbero smesso di funzionare".
"Il sostegno istituzionale c'è, qualora fosse necessario fronteggiare eventuali pressioni", ha aggiunto.

 

[tommy271]

Ireland Is `Very Unlikely' to Experience Greek-Style Crisis, Goldman Says

By John Fraher - Sep 24, 2010 1:14 PM GMT+0200 Fri Sep 24 11:14:03 GMT 2010


Ireland is “very unlikely” to experience a financial crisis as severe as the one that forced Greece to seek an international bailout earlier this year, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“A repeat of the Greek debt turmoil in Ireland is very unlikely,” Michael Vaknin, a senior fixed-income strategist at Goldman in London, said in an e-mailed note. “With Irish spreads already at all-time highs, we would argue that refinancing risks in the Irish debt market is aggressively priced-in already.”

The extra yield that investors demand to hold Irish bonds over German bunds has surged to a record as investors fret about the country’s ability to cap the cost of its bank bailout and cut the budget deficit. The spread today widened 12 basis points to 430 basis points and has swelled 112 basis points in the past month.

Ireland’s economy contracted 1.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous three-month period and Goodbody Stockbrokers said today that the government may need to step up its austerity drive in December’s budget. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said it’s “too early” to signal a tougher budget for next year. He has pledged to cut the deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 14 percent last year.

Liquidity Shortages

Goldman said that Irish banks can avert liquidity shortages by turning to the European Central Bank’s emergency lending operations. Another positive for Ireland is that the ECB is now prepared to buy European sovereign debt, unlike at the depths of the Greek crisis in April and May, Goldman said.
Ireland’s government can also turn to the European Union’s rescue fund if needed, Goldman said. The investment bank also noted that the country has a “fairly significant” cash buffer worth 10 percent of gross domestic product.

Investors have dumped Irish bonds partly on concern that the cost of nationalizing Anglo Irish Bank Corp. last year will widen. While the state has already poured 22 billion euros ($29 billion) into the bank, Standard & Poor’s estimates the final bill may be 35 billion euros, equivalent to 20 percent of GDP.


(Bloomberg)

***
Le analogie ci sono, ma le caratteristiche dei due paesi sono totalmente diverse.
La Grecia ha sofferto di crisi di credibilità, però le banche sono "sane" contrariamente a quelle irlandesi.
Il deficit/Pil corrente è sotto controllo in Grecia mentre quello irlandese è in caduta libera.
La classe dirigente irlandese è scarsamente europeista, questo potrebbe creare qualche dubbio.
Aggiungo inoltre che l'Irlanda ha già subito una cura da cavallo mentre la Grecia è solo all'inizio. Quindi il terreno è ancora fertile.

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, attacco concertato a area euro

A dirlo e' il ministro irlandese delle Finanze

24 settembre, 15:57



(ANSA) - ROMA 24 SET - I recenti sviluppi finanziari suggeriscono che l'area euro e' vittima di un attacco concertato contro i paesi piu' deboli, dice Brian Lenihan. Il ministro irlandese delle Finanze assicura che 'faremo tutto il necessario per proteggere la divisa unica e mettere in ordine l'economia'.

Intanto, da Goldman Sachs arrivano valutazioni rassicuranti sulla tenuta dei conti irlandesi: 'un ripetersi del dissesto greco nel caso dell'Irlanda e' molto improbabile', dice l'analista senior Michael Vaknin.

***
Se lo dicono da Goldman Sachs non c'è che da "provare per credere" ... .

 

[tommy271]

SCHEDA - Irlanda,ipotesi finanziaria, Ue vede pressione su conti

venerdì 24 settembre 2010 15:36



BRUXELLES/DUBLINO, 24 settembre (Reuters) - I saldi di finanza pubblica irlandesi si trovano secondo la Commissione europea sotto "enorme pressione" e la situazione è piuttosto "grave".
A veicolare il giudizio dell'esecutivo Ue è oggi il portavoce Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, premurandosi comunque di aggiungere che Bruxelles rimane "fiduciosa" che le autorità irlandesi "prendano le misure necessarie per rispettare gli obiettivi fissati" per il risanamento dei conti pubblici.

Da Dublino pronta la risposta del ministro delle Finanze Brian Lenihan, che si dice "preoccupato dell'elevato costo di finanziamento del debito" e parla di "concertato attacco" alla valuta unica.
Il differenziale di rendimento Irlanda/Germania tra titoli di Stato a dieci anni si porta intanto all'ennesimo record di tutti i tempi, arrivando a superare i 4,5 punti percentuali.
Sullo sfondo anche le difficoltà politiche della maggioranza in vista della presentazione della nuova finanziaria improntata a misure di austerity, mentre i mercati finanziari ancora ignorano il costo concreto del salvataggio di Anglo Irish Bank.

Il rischio è che la coalizione guidata dal premier Brian Cowen arrivi appena a varare la nuova manovra - su cui si vota il 7 dicembre prossimo - per poi però perdere la maggioranza con la prospettiva di elezioni anticipate all'anno prossimo.
Stamattina la coalizione ha intanto perso l'appoggio di un parlamentare indipendente, riducendo a soli quattro seggi la maggioranza.
L'esecutivo si appresta intanto a presentare sui conti pubblici la quarta misura correttiva degli ultimi due anni.
Lo spazio di manovra resta comunque assai limitato.

Di seguito una breve sintesi dei provvedimenti di legge che Lenihan potrebbe proporre al parlamento.
* Tassazione
1) introduzione di un'imposta sulle proprietà residenziali, abolita ormai dal 1997, come ipotizzato lo scorso anno dalla speciale 'task force' incaricata dal governo.
2) introduzione di un'imposta a tasso fisso sull'acqua per poi passare a una tassazione in base ai consumi una volta istallati i contatori
3) ampiamento della base imponibile fino a includere almeno una parte del 50% della forza lavoro che non versa alcuna imposta sul reddito; dalla misura Dublino potrebbe ricavare circa 300 milioni di euro
4) riduzione degli sgravi fiscali: il ministro intenderebbe esentare dagli sconti 24 categorie come quella del reddito degli artisti, gli inquilini e i malati a lunga degenza

* Spesa
1) nuova riduzione dei salari del settore pubblico, tagliati per la prima volta a dicembre 2009; Dublino ha però concordato con il sindacato a marzo scorso di non intervenire sui salari fino a 2014
2) riduzione della spesa in conto capitale: un terzo dei risparmi dell'ultima manovra di dicembre era già ipotizzato da questa categoria, con misure come il taglio dei finanziamenti per progetti di infrastrutture
3) tagli ai sussidi di disoccupazione: l'ultima manovra ha già ridotto la spesa di 2 miliardi
4) riduzione della spesa corrente: interventi possibili su educazione, sanità e stato sociale
5) tagli alle pensioni del settore pubblico: particolare attenzione politica sulla misura, che potrebbe portare a un ulteriore indebolimento della maggioranza

 

[qquebec]

Il Sole 24 Ore

Il Sole 24 Ore

 

[tommy271]

Il Sole 24 Ore

Si, Quebec, il deficit/Pil corrente è in caduta libera.
Neanche la Grecia aveva sfiorato il 25% ...

 

[tommy271]

Le assonanze tra l'Irlanda e la Grecia sono numerose.
Tanti gli analisti sull'argomento: se invece provassimo a fare Irlanda vs Islanda?

 

[tommy271]

Lenihan highlights 'turnaround' in economy




STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor


Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has attempted to calm fears about the recent surge in the cost of Irish borrowing, saying there had been a remarkable turnaround in the Irish economy over the past year.
He told a conference on the media in Dublin that while the most recent official figures were weaker than expected, they showed that the economy had stabilised and it was important that the full picture and the underlying trends were reported.

“Exports are growing. New order books are expanding and business confidence has improved markedly since last year. Tax revenues are stabilising, public expenditure is under control and our budget deficit will shrink next year,” he said.

He warned, however, that neither the international markets nor our European Union partners would tolerate a slippage from the stated budget targets.

The Government has agreed with the European Commission that it will cut the budget deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 14 per cent last year.

The Minister also said that he was concerned by the yields demanded by investors during the most recent sale of Irish Government bonds, adding that it was too early to signal whether a tougher budget was now required for next year.

Earlier this week the National Treasury Management Agency – which manages the State’s debt – raised €1.5 billion in a bond auction, but was forced to offer one percentage point more in yield than during a similar auction a month earlier.

Mr Lenihan said the national accounts, published on Thursday, showed that the economy bottomed out last year in the fourth quarter. So far this year there had been significant growth in first-quarter output and a smaller decline in the second quarter.

“On gross national product, we have moved from a very steep decline, a fall of 11 per cent, to a position of stabilisation. This is a remarkable turnaround and it is important that we bring it to the attention of potential investors,” he said.

Mr Lenihan said he recognised and understood the anger felt by the public about what had happened over the last three years.

“That anger has been well articulated by commentators who genuinely and rightly believe they have a role in giving voice to the frustrations of the citizens. But those of us in positions of leadership have a duty to give people hope,” he added.

The Minister said the recent surge in borrowing costs for some countries suggested there was a concerted attack on euro zone nations.

He said the Irish Government “will do everything that is essential to protect the common currency and put our own economic house in order”.

Irish borrowing costs hit a new high of 6.546 per cent yesterday and have been rising for the last month. The extra yield investors demand to hold Irish bonds over German bonds has surged to record highs due to investor concern about the State’s ability to manage its budget deficit and the bank bailout.

Former EU commissioner and attorney general Peter Sutherland, now a non-executive chairman of Goldman Sachs International, said the Government may need to cut more than €3 billion in next year’s budget.

“The figure of €3 billion has been postulated as the improvement to be sought in the next budget,” Mr Sutherland said in a speech in Dublin yesterday.

“We are told that this is all that the political system can bear, but if all the mainstream political parties accept that more is required and are prepared to say it, we can find a way.” One bright spot for the Government came from a research note by Goldman Sachs Group, which said Ireland was “very unlikely” to experience a financial crisis as severe as the one that forced Greece to seek an international bailout earlier this year.

“A repeat of the Greek debt turmoil in Ireland is very unlikely,” Michael Vaknin, a senior fixed-income strategist at Goldman in London, said.

“With Irish spreads already at all-time highs, we would argue that refinancing risks in the Irish debt market are aggressively priced-in already,” he added.


(Irish Times)

 

[discipline]

Articolo di oggi, grassetti miei ovviamente. Dando per scontato che vale meno di nulla, pare indorare la pillola del buyback. Commenti?

Guarantee end to throw up options on Anglo debt

Markets like order, and they like information. At the moment we are providing neither and it's costing us dearly.
The end of the State's guarantee of €2.4bn of Anglo's subordinated bonds at the end of the month creates an opportunity to address both issues. This week, holders of the bonds were ringing around London advisers for any steer on where a possible removal of the guarantee leaves them and what could be coming down the line.
The expiration of the guarantee raises the possibility of an Anglo default. A default on unguaranteed Anglo bonds must not be confused with a national default.
But because we still have no legislation in place to manage a bank in default, an unexpected default today could prompt Anglo depositors to remove funds faster than the bank can cover them (a run).
It would also sharply increase the cost of borrowing for the other Irish banks -- just as their debt falls due to be refinanced and could easily spiral into a financial crisis on top of the current economic one.
The taxpayer would have to step in, and start the whole sorry process again.
But there are some smart alternatives. The Government has already indicated it plans a "liability management exercise" for Anglo debt. That is market chatter for cutting debt without going through a default.
Paper exchange
It could try to convince holders of subordinated (junior) bonds to exchange their paper for a smaller number of more senior bonds. Senior lenders might be uncomfortable with that, because it increases the amount of paper at their level. Junior bondholders might go for it, but it's hardly compelling and doesn't really reduce debt.
The easiest way to cut debt is to buy Anglo subordinated (junior) bonds close to the current trading price of 20c in the euro.
A buyback involving a willing buyer and a willing seller would reduce debt without the lender being actually seen to default.
The €2.4bn of subordinated bonds could be bought and cancelled for less than €500m.
Describing the difference as a profit would go too far, but it does limit the downside.
Subordinated (junior) bondholders would welcome it, they benefit because they get cash for bonds on a limited if any market. In a buyback they can probably expect a price somewhere above where the bonds trade today, though not far above, and in the overwhelming number of cases bondholders "book" a profit by selling even if they sell at a loss. That's because they "mark to market", raising and decreasing the book value of their bonds daily or weekly. Everybody wins?
Not quite. Senior bondholders would be unhappy. With €16.5bn of guaranteed senior debt outstanding they fear they too are ultimately at risk. They'd rather not see today's cash leak down the capital structure for fear it won't be around tomorrow. The simple answer is to extend the buybacks into the senior debt, offering market prices to willing sellers of any Anglo bond.
But taxpayers should also have concerns. A buyback that is not part of a coherent plan easily becomes good money after bad, and with a gaping hole in the national finances- €500m is real money.
Buybacks
Buybacks have been done for the banks before. Legally they are uncontroversial, but a really credible buyback requires a stick as well as a carrot. The end of the guarantee provides that, but only if the Government moves to introduce bank resolution legislation quickly.
Legislation setting out clearly how to transfer a bank to lenders without undermining the financial system would reassure markets that the bank system had a solid base while reminding investors that the guarantee was not open-ended. Without new banking legislation, as long as the State is solvent it remains the sucker of last resort, and everybody knows.
A debt-cutting buyback combined with a real plan to restore credibility to the banks, backed up with legislation, would show the wider markets that we are moving out of crisis mode. That could restore some semblance of normality to both the bank system and the national risk profile, and save us the bones of €2bn while we're at it.
Donal O'Donovan was the former debt-restructuring specialist at Thomson Reuters before recently joining the Irish Independent business desk


da qui: Guarantee end to throw up options on Anglo debt - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

 

[tommy271]

Tante buone intenzioni per Donald O'Donovan, ma la questione Anglo Irish scotta sotto tutte le angolature ... la questione delle garanzie alle subordinate è problema imminente poichè a breve decadranno.
Però non si risolve la questione "subordinate", se non si ha un chiaro quadro di percorso.
A me pare che il governo irlandese brancoli nel buio.
Qualche consiglio la BCE lo ha dato ...