Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
era così facile da prevedere che si è autoavverata
isola isola delle mie brame
vediamo ora se ai merikani garba o no
isola isola delle mie brame
vediamo ora se ai merikani garba o no
BUND BOND BAND lo stress-test del pork col Tarp del blog di Gipa VM under 69
- Creatore Discussione gastronomo
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Quickkkkk non è che rimetti il link di quella fantastica pagina di un forexsito dove c'è il calendario economico della giornata? pleaseeeee
mi son dimenticato di salvare i segnalibri
mi son dimenticato di salvare i segnalibri
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Treasuries Gain as Fed Buys Debt Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aLpR.GTBQfr0&refer=govt_bonds#
By Susanne Walker and Matthew Brown
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as the Federal Reserve began the first of three buybacks of U.S. debt this week amid speculation the central bank will increase its purchases as rising yields send mortgage rates above 5 percent.
Thirty-year bonds led the gains as the Fed began buying government securities maturing between August 2026 and February 2039, its 17th buyback since the $300 billion, six-month purchase program began on March 25. The yield on the 30-year bond climbed last week to the highest since November amid concern about record levels of borrowing. Stocks fell.
“The buybacks will be the catalyst to move the market around more than anything else,” said Theodore Ake, head of U.S. Treasury trading in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., one of 16 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “As rates climb, it puts pressure on mortgage rates, which puts pressure on the Fed to buy back paper to keep rates lower.”
The 30-year bond yield fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.22 percent as of 10:28 a.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market data. The 4.25 percent security due in May 2039 gained 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 19/32. Ten-year yields fell six basis points to 3.22 percent.
Mortgage Rates
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.8 percent after an increase of 5.9 percent last week.
Treasury 10-year yields have risen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest advance in five years, as President Barack Obama borrows record amounts to stimulate the economy and service a widening budget deficit. The government will sell $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Obama’s administration raised its estimate of the deficit this year to $1.84 trillion, up 5 percent from the February estimate, and to $1.26 trillion next year, up 7.4 percent. The administration also projected Obama’s budget for 2010 will end up at $3.59 trillion, compared with the $3.55 trillion it estimated previously.
The Treasury begins its next round of auctions on May 26 with sales of two-, five- and seven year securities over three consecutive days. The government sold $71 billion in securities last week.
The rise in yields sent average rates on 30-year mortgages to 5.03 percent on May 6, the highest since April 7, according to North Palm Beach, Florida-based Bankrate.com.
‘Relatively Tight’
BlackRock Inc., American Century Investments, Federated Investors and Pioneer Investment Management say it’s time to purchase Treasuries because the Fed will need to expand its buybacks to keep down consumer borrowing costs.
“The Fed needs to consider increasing its purchases of Treasuries,” said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock, which manages $483 billion in debt. Spodek said he resumed buying Treasuries. “We are still in a recession. It’s quite bad. They need to stabilize long-term rates.”
The Fed has bought $92.215 billion in U.S. debt since announcing the purchases on March 18. The central bank will buy notes maturing between May 2012 and August 2013 tomorrow and securities maturing between May 2010 and February 2011 on May 14.
Credit Markets
Other parts of the credit market show government and central bank efforts to restore trading are working. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge for three- month loans fell two basis points to 0.92 percent, extending the longest period of declines since February 2008. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend, fell to the lowest level since July 2.
Increased supply and signs of improvement in the economy have sent Treasuries lower so far 2009. U.S. securities have handed investors a 3.9 percent loss this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Treasury Master index.
The declines are the largest since a 4.94 percent decline over the same period in 1994, according to Merrill’s indexes. That year the Fed began raising its target rate to contain inflation in a cycle of monetary tightening that peaked at 5.25 percent in 2006.
More Bearish
Fund managers became more bearish on the outlook for Treasuries through the end of 2009, a survey by Ried, Thunberg & Co. shows.
The company’s sentiment index dropped to 42 for the seven days ended May 8, from 44 the week before. A reading below 50 means investors expect prices to fall. The economic analysis firm in Jersey City, New Jersey, surveyed 24 investors controlling $1.22 trillion.
Bill Gross, manager of Pacific Investment Management Co.’s $150 billion Total Return Fund, reduced his holdings of U.S. government debt last month for the first time since January, cutting government debt as a percentage of assets to 26 percent in April from 28 percent in March, according to the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aLpR.GTBQfr0&refer=govt_bonds#
By Susanne Walker and Matthew Brown
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as the Federal Reserve began the first of three buybacks of U.S. debt this week amid speculation the central bank will increase its purchases as rising yields send mortgage rates above 5 percent.
Thirty-year bonds led the gains as the Fed began buying government securities maturing between August 2026 and February 2039, its 17th buyback since the $300 billion, six-month purchase program began on March 25. The yield on the 30-year bond climbed last week to the highest since November amid concern about record levels of borrowing. Stocks fell.
“The buybacks will be the catalyst to move the market around more than anything else,” said Theodore Ake, head of U.S. Treasury trading in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., one of 16 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “As rates climb, it puts pressure on mortgage rates, which puts pressure on the Fed to buy back paper to keep rates lower.”
The 30-year bond yield fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.22 percent as of 10:28 a.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market data. The 4.25 percent security due in May 2039 gained 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 19/32. Ten-year yields fell six basis points to 3.22 percent.
Mortgage Rates
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.8 percent after an increase of 5.9 percent last week.
Treasury 10-year yields have risen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest advance in five years, as President Barack Obama borrows record amounts to stimulate the economy and service a widening budget deficit. The government will sell $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Obama’s administration raised its estimate of the deficit this year to $1.84 trillion, up 5 percent from the February estimate, and to $1.26 trillion next year, up 7.4 percent. The administration also projected Obama’s budget for 2010 will end up at $3.59 trillion, compared with the $3.55 trillion it estimated previously.
The Treasury begins its next round of auctions on May 26 with sales of two-, five- and seven year securities over three consecutive days. The government sold $71 billion in securities last week.
The rise in yields sent average rates on 30-year mortgages to 5.03 percent on May 6, the highest since April 7, according to North Palm Beach, Florida-based Bankrate.com.
‘Relatively Tight’
BlackRock Inc., American Century Investments, Federated Investors and Pioneer Investment Management say it’s time to purchase Treasuries because the Fed will need to expand its buybacks to keep down consumer borrowing costs.
“The Fed needs to consider increasing its purchases of Treasuries,” said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock, which manages $483 billion in debt. Spodek said he resumed buying Treasuries. “We are still in a recession. It’s quite bad. They need to stabilize long-term rates.”
The Fed has bought $92.215 billion in U.S. debt since announcing the purchases on March 18. The central bank will buy notes maturing between May 2012 and August 2013 tomorrow and securities maturing between May 2010 and February 2011 on May 14.
Credit Markets
Other parts of the credit market show government and central bank efforts to restore trading are working. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge for three- month loans fell two basis points to 0.92 percent, extending the longest period of declines since February 2008. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend, fell to the lowest level since July 2.
Increased supply and signs of improvement in the economy have sent Treasuries lower so far 2009. U.S. securities have handed investors a 3.9 percent loss this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Treasury Master index.
The declines are the largest since a 4.94 percent decline over the same period in 1994, according to Merrill’s indexes. That year the Fed began raising its target rate to contain inflation in a cycle of monetary tightening that peaked at 5.25 percent in 2006.
More Bearish
Fund managers became more bearish on the outlook for Treasuries through the end of 2009, a survey by Ried, Thunberg & Co. shows.
The company’s sentiment index dropped to 42 for the seven days ended May 8, from 44 the week before. A reading below 50 means investors expect prices to fall. The economic analysis firm in Jersey City, New Jersey, surveyed 24 investors controlling $1.22 trillion.
Bill Gross, manager of Pacific Investment Management Co.’s $150 billion Total Return Fund, reduced his holdings of U.S. government debt last month for the first time since January, cutting government debt as a percentage of assets to 26 percent in April from 28 percent in March, according to the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
e mettiamoci anche un pò di ambrosio
Enjoy the rally while it lasts - but expect to take a sucker punch
Our delicious spring rally is nearing the limits. The 40pc rise on global bourses since March assumes that central banks have conjured away the debt overhang by slashing rates to zero and printing money. Nothing of the sort has occurred. Two thirds of the world economy will be in deflation by July.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Bear market rallies can be explosive. Japan had four violent spikes during its Lost Decade (33pc, 55pc, 44pc, and 79pc). Wall Street had seven during the Great Depression, lasting 40 days on average. The spring of 1931 was a corker.
James Montier at Société Générale said that even hard-bitten bears are starting to throw in the towel, suspecting that we really are on the cusp of new boom. That is a tell-tale sign.
"Prolonged suckers' rallies tend to be especially vicious as they force everyone back into the market before cruelly dashing them on the rocks of despair yet again," he said. Genuine bottoms tend to be "quiet affairs", carved slowly in a fog of investor gloom.
Another sign of fakery – apart from the implausible 'V' shape – is the "dash for trash" in this rally. The mostly heavily shorted stocks are up 70pc: the least shorted are up 21pc. Stocks with bad fundamentals in SocGen's model (Anheuser-Busch, Cairn Energy, Ericsson) are up 60pc: the best are up 30pc.
Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's stock guru, expects another shake-out. "We think the bear market rally will end sooner rather than later. None of our signposts of the next bull market has flashed green yet. We're not convinced the banking system has been fully fixed," he said
Mr Draaisma said US housing busts typically last nearly about 42 months. We are just 26 months into this one. The overhang of unsold properties on the US market is still near a record 11 months. He expects the new bull market to kick off later this year – perhaps in October – anticipating real recovery in 2010.
Keep an eye on the upward creep in yields on the 10-year US Treasury, the benchmark price of world credit. This alone threatens to short-circuit the rally. The yield reached 3.3pc last week, up over 1pc since January and above the level in March when the US Federal Reserve first launched its buying blitz to pull rates down. Bond vigilantes are taunting the Bank of England in much the same way, driving the 10-year gilt yield to 3.73pc.
The happy view is that this tightening of the bond markets is proof of recovery fever, but there is a dark side.
Governments need to raise $6 trillion (£4 trillion) this year to fund bail-outs and deficits, led by this abject isle with needs of 13.8pc of GDP (EU figures). China fired a warning shot last week, saying the West risks setting off "inflation for the whole world" by printing money. It hinted at a bond crisis.
Yes, the glass is half full. China's PMI optimism gauge has jumped back above the recession line. The global PMI has been rising for seven months. But this usually happens after a crash as companies rebuild battered inventories for a quarter or two.
Note that container volumes in Shanghai fell 17pc in January, 22pc in February, and 9pc in March. Rail freight volumes in the US were down 32pc in April on a year earlier.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) says the US recession will be over by summer, insisting that its leading indicators have never been wrong – except once, in the Great Depression. Quite.
SocGen's other bear, Albert Edwards, says the new element in this slump is that GDP is contracting in "nominal" terms, not just real terms. Money incomes are flat. It is a crucial difference.
"This is like drinking hemlock. The US is gradually slipping further towards outright deflation, just as Japan did," he said. As companies retrench en masse they risk tipping the whole economy into Irving Fisher's "debt deflation trap".
If we are spared – still a big if – we can thank a handful of central bank governors and policy-makers who tore up the rule book, defied tabloid opinion, and took revolutionary action in the nick of time.
We owe much to the Fed's Ben Bernanke (leaving aside past sins as Greenspan's cheerleader), to Britain's Mervyn King, and the Canadian, Japanese and Swiss governors. Hats off, too, to the Greek speakers at the European Central Bank who have just carried out a monetary putsch, outflanking German tank-traps on the Rhine. The hero is Athanasios Orphanides, the Cypriot governor who drafted the Fed's anti-deflation strategy during his 17-year stint in Washington.
The ECB's belated embrace of QE is a watershed moment, even if only a token purchase of €60bn of covered bonds. What poisoned the early 1930s was beggar-thy-neighbour monetary policies. Any country that tried to reflate alone was punished by currency flight (gold loss), yet the mediocrities in charge lacked the imagination to reflate together.
We can now test the Friedman-Bernanke hypothesis that the Fed could have halted the Depression by letting rip with bond purchases. Japan was not a proper test. It eked out a recovery of sorts earlier this decade by embracing QE, but only in the context of a global boom and a yen crash.
There is at least one more boil to lance before we put this debt debacle behind us. The IMF says eurozone banks have so far written down a fifth of likely losses ($750bn) compared to half for US banks. They must raise $375bn in fresh capital. Good luck.
Germany's BaFin regulator goes further, warning of $1.1 trillion of toxic assets on German bank books. Landesbanken are a calamity. If the IMF and BaFin are right, Europe has not yet had its crisis. When it does, we will see a second stress pulse through Eastern Europe and Club Med.
The echoes of 1931 are ominous. That year began with green shoots, until Austria's Credit-Anstalt buckled in the summer and took Central Europe with it. Continentals who still thought it was an American crisis learned otherwise. Plus ça change.
Enjoy the rally while it lasts - but expect to take a sucker punch
Our delicious spring rally is nearing the limits. The 40pc rise on global bourses since March assumes that central banks have conjured away the debt overhang by slashing rates to zero and printing money. Nothing of the sort has occurred. Two thirds of the world economy will be in deflation by July.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Bear market rallies can be explosive. Japan had four violent spikes during its Lost Decade (33pc, 55pc, 44pc, and 79pc). Wall Street had seven during the Great Depression, lasting 40 days on average. The spring of 1931 was a corker.
James Montier at Société Générale said that even hard-bitten bears are starting to throw in the towel, suspecting that we really are on the cusp of new boom. That is a tell-tale sign.
"Prolonged suckers' rallies tend to be especially vicious as they force everyone back into the market before cruelly dashing them on the rocks of despair yet again," he said. Genuine bottoms tend to be "quiet affairs", carved slowly in a fog of investor gloom.
Another sign of fakery – apart from the implausible 'V' shape – is the "dash for trash" in this rally. The mostly heavily shorted stocks are up 70pc: the least shorted are up 21pc. Stocks with bad fundamentals in SocGen's model (Anheuser-Busch, Cairn Energy, Ericsson) are up 60pc: the best are up 30pc.
Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's stock guru, expects another shake-out. "We think the bear market rally will end sooner rather than later. None of our signposts of the next bull market has flashed green yet. We're not convinced the banking system has been fully fixed," he said
Mr Draaisma said US housing busts typically last nearly about 42 months. We are just 26 months into this one. The overhang of unsold properties on the US market is still near a record 11 months. He expects the new bull market to kick off later this year – perhaps in October – anticipating real recovery in 2010.
Keep an eye on the upward creep in yields on the 10-year US Treasury, the benchmark price of world credit. This alone threatens to short-circuit the rally. The yield reached 3.3pc last week, up over 1pc since January and above the level in March when the US Federal Reserve first launched its buying blitz to pull rates down. Bond vigilantes are taunting the Bank of England in much the same way, driving the 10-year gilt yield to 3.73pc.
The happy view is that this tightening of the bond markets is proof of recovery fever, but there is a dark side.
Governments need to raise $6 trillion (£4 trillion) this year to fund bail-outs and deficits, led by this abject isle with needs of 13.8pc of GDP (EU figures). China fired a warning shot last week, saying the West risks setting off "inflation for the whole world" by printing money. It hinted at a bond crisis.
Yes, the glass is half full. China's PMI optimism gauge has jumped back above the recession line. The global PMI has been rising for seven months. But this usually happens after a crash as companies rebuild battered inventories for a quarter or two.
Note that container volumes in Shanghai fell 17pc in January, 22pc in February, and 9pc in March. Rail freight volumes in the US were down 32pc in April on a year earlier.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) says the US recession will be over by summer, insisting that its leading indicators have never been wrong – except once, in the Great Depression. Quite.
SocGen's other bear, Albert Edwards, says the new element in this slump is that GDP is contracting in "nominal" terms, not just real terms. Money incomes are flat. It is a crucial difference.
"This is like drinking hemlock. The US is gradually slipping further towards outright deflation, just as Japan did," he said. As companies retrench en masse they risk tipping the whole economy into Irving Fisher's "debt deflation trap".
If we are spared – still a big if – we can thank a handful of central bank governors and policy-makers who tore up the rule book, defied tabloid opinion, and took revolutionary action in the nick of time.
We owe much to the Fed's Ben Bernanke (leaving aside past sins as Greenspan's cheerleader), to Britain's Mervyn King, and the Canadian, Japanese and Swiss governors. Hats off, too, to the Greek speakers at the European Central Bank who have just carried out a monetary putsch, outflanking German tank-traps on the Rhine. The hero is Athanasios Orphanides, the Cypriot governor who drafted the Fed's anti-deflation strategy during his 17-year stint in Washington.
The ECB's belated embrace of QE is a watershed moment, even if only a token purchase of €60bn of covered bonds. What poisoned the early 1930s was beggar-thy-neighbour monetary policies. Any country that tried to reflate alone was punished by currency flight (gold loss), yet the mediocrities in charge lacked the imagination to reflate together.
We can now test the Friedman-Bernanke hypothesis that the Fed could have halted the Depression by letting rip with bond purchases. Japan was not a proper test. It eked out a recovery of sorts earlier this decade by embracing QE, but only in the context of a global boom and a yen crash.
There is at least one more boil to lance before we put this debt debacle behind us. The IMF says eurozone banks have so far written down a fifth of likely losses ($750bn) compared to half for US banks. They must raise $375bn in fresh capital. Good luck.
Germany's BaFin regulator goes further, warning of $1.1 trillion of toxic assets on German bank books. Landesbanken are a calamity. If the IMF and BaFin are right, Europe has not yet had its crisis. When it does, we will see a second stress pulse through Eastern Europe and Club Med.
The echoes of 1931 are ominous. That year began with green shoots, until Austria's Credit-Anstalt buckled in the summer and took Central Europe with it. Continentals who still thought it was an American crisis learned otherwise. Plus ça change.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
in onore del trasgressivo gastro i dieci migliori streakers secondo l'autorevole sun
prego mirare quello del golf
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/top10s/article2419920.ece
se qualche anima mirabile riesce a salvare le foto dal sito prego passare perchè alcune gridano ad alta voce di essere ospitate nel mio nobile archivio
prego mirare quello del golfhttp://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/top10s/article2419920.ece
se qualche anima mirabile riesce a salvare le foto dal sito prego passare perchè alcune gridano ad alta voce di essere ospitate nel mio nobile archivio
f4f
翠鸟科
in onore del trasgressivo gastro i dieci migliori streakers secondo l'autorevole sun
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/top10s/article2419920.ece
se qualche anima mirabile riesce a salvare le foto dal sito prego passare perchè alcune gridano ad alta voce di essere ospitate nel mio nobile archivio
tasto dx
ok
salva immagine
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
avucat appena ha postato si è sollevato il ban sulle immagini per 30 sec poi è tornato però ho fatto in tempo a salvare la foto della 19esima buca
però ho fatto in tempo a salvare la foto della 19esima buca
f4f
翠鸟科
avucat appena ha postato si è sollevato il ban sulle immagini per 30 sec poi è tornato
19ma buca ...
Madiba
Forumer storico
Quickkkkk non è che rimetti il link di quella fantastica pagina di un forexsito dove c'è il calendario economico della giornata? pleaseeeee
mi son dimenticato di salvare i segnalibri
http://www.forexfactory.com/
Sharnin 2
Forumer storico
Io col Mac faccio così: clicco sull'immagine col tasto destro del mouse e nel menù a tendina clicco su Apri immagine in una nuova finestra. In questa finestra poi puoi fare Copia Immagine o Salva Immagine o quello che vuoi. Semplicissimo.in onore del trasgressivo gastro i dieci migliori streakers secondo l'autorevole sun
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/top10s/article2419920.ece
se qualche anima mirabile riesce a salvare le foto dal sito prego passare perchè alcune gridano ad alta voce di essere ospitate nel mio nobile archivio
