Mi sembra che ci sia contraddizione in quel che dici ... spiegami meglio cosa intendi quando dici
il problema è solo la "asset deflation", che nemmeno le banche centrali possono governare completamente
grazie
mentre cercavo info sulla Grecia, ho trovato questo tizio sconosciuto in un articolo di Novembre, che raccoglie le idee in maniera pregievole.
Brevemente:
Deflazione monetaria: quando si distrugge moneta per i fallimenti, come nel '29.
Deflazione degli asset: ad es. le case. Come fanno le B.C. ha controllare i prezzi delle case ? Di solito con i tassi sui mutui, ma ormai c'è eccesso di offerta, scoppio della bolla, ecc ecc. e non riescono a fermare la discesa dei prezzi. E il problema per le banche è che ci sono prestiti garantiti da quegli asset. L'unico modo per fare rialzare i prezzi delle case è stampare soldi di brutto, ma porterebbe anche iperinflazione, quindi non si può fare.
Il discorso era comunque che non siamo nel '29,
la storia non si può ripetere, semplicemente perchè le B.C. stanno facendo cose diverse.
Let’s start with a few definitions:
Monetary deflation – In this case, we have the literal destruction of money. This only happened one time in the 30’s when monetary authorities let banks fail and whipped out the savings of millions of people.
This is not the case today.
Price deflation – This is more or less the deflation we all know and feel and it’s what I call good deflation. It’s the result of competitive forces, globalization, high inventories and yes, recessions from time to time.
Asset deflation – This is the most dangerous type of deflation. In this case, assets of all sorts get reduced in price across the board. The problem with Asset deflation is that most loans are based on different assets and thus, when assets get discounted, the loan portfolios of banks (which are based on these assets) get eroded and you end up having a banking crisis like the one we are having today.
We do not have monetary deflation today because central banks are printing money like madman. If we had monetary deflation (in which case central banks would not have printed money), chances are that most banks in the known world would have already been broke and most people would have lost all their savings by now. But this is not the case.
By default, if we have monetary deflation, then we will also have price & asset deflation. If the money in circulation becomes less, then all assets, goods and services will end up costing less.
This is what happened in the 30’s.
Like I said, we do not have (and won’t have) monetary deflation.
...........
Bottom line
Monetary deflation is not an issue (depending on your definition of money)
Current price deflation in the PPI & CPI is a good thing
Asset deflation is the big problem and honestly, we don’t know how to solve it. Chances are that all the central bank printing will do the trick, but, if they are not careful in mopping up several years ahead, it can have inflationary consequences.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/107483-deflation-we-win-inflation-we-win-big-time