Bund-bonds-wheats-trips on trikeko street (VM1987Ani) (2 lettori)

giomf

giomf

Forumer storico
.

non riesco a capire se il 01/09 è aperto il CME--Globex ( MiniFuture Crude e Gas ) ...


Il sedex italiano è aperto .. ?

Acquistando certificati con leva il 01/09 su Crude o Gas .. si acquistano a quale prezzo del sottostante dato che il NYMEX USA è chiuso ... ?


C'è questa nota del CME, ..http://www.nymex.com/notice_to_memb...51&archive=2008 .. ma non ci capisco nulla ...


Chiedo delucidazioni ..

da ciò che mi risulta da qui
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Variazioni apertura mercati

In occasione della festività del Labor day nelle giornate di venerdì 29 agosto 2008 e lunedì 1 settembre 2008 alcuni mercati saranno chiusi.
Consulta la tabella per conoscere i dettagli:
Mercati DERIVATI
Ven 29/08/2008
Lun 01/09/2008
LIFFE
- Euribor futures Aperto Chiude alle 19.00
CME Group
- Currencies (FX) Chiude alle 22.15 Chiude alle 19.00 *
- Interest Rates Chiude alle 22.15 Chiude alle 19.00 *
- CBOT Financials Chiude alle 22.15 Chiude alle 19.00 *
- Equity Index Chiude alle 22.15 Chiude alle 17.30 *
- Commodities (Agricultural, GSCI, eCBOT Metals) Aperto CHIUSO
- NYMEX & COMEX Products (Energy & Metals) Aperto Chiude alle 23.15 *
OCC Aperto CHIUSO
Mercati CASH
Ven 29/08/2008 Lun 01/09/2008
Nyse/Nasdaq/Amex Aperto CHIUSO
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


La tabella così incollata la vedete male .. è relativa a 2 gg. ( 29/08 ..e... 01/09 ) e quando c'è scritto ..aperto..poi...chiuso... l' aperto è relativo al 29/08 ...comunque il NYMEX è assolutamente chiuso come i mercati cash USA.... ma non riesco a capire se è chiuso il CME--Globex ( MiniFuture Crude e MiniFuture Gas )

.. dicevo lunedì , col Labor day i mercati commodities ( credo quasi tutti...Nymex per i futures grandi di Crude e Gas e CME-Globex per i futures piccoli )
..
sono chiusi quindi non si può acquistar alcuno di quei futures che ho citato ...


Il sedex ( italiano , certificates con leva ) .. credo sia normalmente aperto ...
ma credo che qulsiasi strumento con leva ( certificates) con sottostante Crude o Gas
.. lunedì 01/09 ... non abbia variazione in quanto i futures sono chiusi ..
ma però ..

A ) Lo si può acquistare ... ?


B ) Se è permesso acquistarlo avrà il prezzo del sottostante relativo alla
giornata di ven 29/08 ...? ... non credo ..

La tabella di IWBank esposta sopra non è affatto chiara ...
es. per certi mercati che lunedì 01/09 chiudono in anticipo alle 19,00...si dice
che gli ordini imessi saranno validi fino alla chiusura del 02/09 ..

Mi dite come e SE si può acquistare uno strumento long con leva su Crude o Gas
lunedì 01/09 ... ?


mille grazie


.
 
f4f

f4f

翠鸟科
Dario ha scritto:
leggevo di previsioni di Morgan Stanley di inflazione 2009 (fine) 2/2,5 europa....
se ci metti crescita negativa ,mi tocca vedere il bund a 125 :-?
Io sono dell'idea opposta :eek:

che ne pensi?
Clicca per allargare...
:-?
pari in ipotesi di tassi crescenti :ops: ho capito bene?
a domani bbanditi :D
 
gipa69

gipa69

collegio dei patafisici
No doubt most of you have seen at least parts of the opening ceremony of the 29th Olympiad held in Beijing. As many Chinese subscribers can attest to, hosting the 29th Olympiad is much more than a “coming out party” for China and her citizens around the world. The term “coming out party” is a major understatement, especially to those who have studied Chinese history and her place in the world from 2,500 years ago to today. As recently as the beginning of the reign of the Kangxi Emperor in the 1660s, China's place in the world – in terms of sheer GDP, living standards, and technological prowess – took pole position, and had been that way for hundreds of years. By the end of the reign of the Qianlong Emperor (Kangxi's grandson), China's relative place in the world embarked on a very steep decline. This would continue to the 1970s. Given the achievements of the Chinese over the last 2,500 years and until the mid 18th century, it was hard-pressed for any Chinese citizen to say he was truly proud to be a Chinese over most of the last 250 years. True, there were always exceptions, and the Chinese had no shortage of heroes such as Lin Zexu and Wong Fei Hung, but by the conclusion of the First Opium War in 1842, it was abundantly clear that both China and her dynastic system were horribly outclassed by the Western powers.

The tide started to turn (slowly at first, but surely) with the implementation of economic reforms by then-leader Deng Xiao Ping in 1978. By the time China took possession of Hong Kong in 1997, and with the Asia Crisis in full bloom, China has become too big and influential to ignore, especially as other Asian countries were crumbling all around them (Japan fell into recession for the umpteenth time in 1997). By the early 2000s - as the US and the global tech bubble was faltering, and after China was awarded the Olympic games - it has become a crescendo. In 2005, China's GDP (nominal, not on a PPP basis) surpassed that of Great Britain, and ranked number four in the world behind the US, Japan, and Germany. By the end of this year, China's nominal GDP is projected to surpass that of Germany. Obviously, there is still a lot of work to do. "Social harmony" remains the long-term goal but this would involve further reforms across the board - not just economic but structural reforms that include a focus on the environment, reforms at the provincial levels, educational reforms, legal reforms, etc. The fall of the Qing Dynasty and the overall dynastic system proved that it was dangerous to rely on a " few great men" (even though it came with a significant bureaucracy) to run such a large country for as long as they live (Qianlong himself was a very good Emperor but turned senile as he got older and continued to hold on to power even though he had officially abdicated). At the same time, the country's leadership is fearful of great change at the governmental level given the sheer amount of blood shed during past regime changes in China. The Communist Party is in name only obviously - but it is a model somewhat based on the old dynastic system with some major differences: Great men at the top are elected by other great men - and no one holds onto power forever. There is no absolute power, but there doesn't need to be as the modern transition of power is relatively smooth and requires no bloodshed.

For now - and for the fist time in 250 years - a Chinese citizen can sincerely claim that he/she is proud to be a Chinese citizen (China's human rights records notwithstanding). For the true nationalist, that dream is still very far away, but China is slowly getting there. It is not about having the world's richest men (e.g. Mexico, Russia, etc.) or the world's largest standing army. It is about becoming a true global citizen - starting with cultivating talent at the science, public policy, and financial levels and bringing on fundamental reforms at the institutional level. From my perspective, it is also about being a driver of sustainable Schumpeterian Growth - such as new breakthroughs in environmental clean-up technologies, green tech, biotech, or in material sciences. It is a long and hard road, but the Chinese understands the sacrifices that need to be made. The Chinese will not rest on their laurels after the 2008 Olympics Games is over, as this “coming out party” is only a first step in reasserting her place in the world. It has been and will continue to be a wild and exciting ride for the Chinese and for the global capitalists going forward (the issue of whether the China needs to embrace democratic reforms can fill a whole book so we will save that for another day).

In the meantime, I believe Chinese economic growth will slow down over the coming months, as the People's Bank of China and the Chinese government continue to try to control inflation and to prevent overheating of the Chinese economy. For example, last Wednesday, the China's State Council revised its foreign exchange rules for the first time since 1997 – allowing regulators to better monitor foreign exchange flows into China's financial institutions and to better prevent “hot money” inflows. Moreover, the Chinese government has continued to try to curb surging housing prices by cutting lending to deter speculation and encouraging developers to build more housing for low-income families. This has resulted in lower real estate transaction volumes across the country, as shown in the following chart courtesy of Morgan Stanley Research:



Furthermore, the People's Bank of China has raised rates six times since 2007 and has kept them at a decade high. It has also raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves to a record high of 17.5% - which effectively acts to cool down the growth in the domestic economy's money supply. Given that the world's major economies – including the US, the Euro Zone, Japan, India, and Eastern Europe – are slowing down as well, there is a good chance that the Chinese economy will see lower-than-trend economic growth for the rest of this year and into 2009.

On July 25th, President Hu Jintao made a speech outlining the Party's goals for the Chinese economy in the second half of this year. Specifically, their first priority is to maintain stable and fast economic growth; concentrate on expanding domestic demand (i.e. Chinese consumer spending), while maintaining steady growth in foreign trade; strive to increase coal, power, and oil supply; guide the capital market and housing market to develop in a healthy way; and to stabilize expectation of economic development. On the face of it, this is a bullish development for the Chinese economy and Chinese stocks. But given the actions of both the People's Bank of China and the Chinese government over the last 6 to 18 months, the dramatic slowdown of most OECD economies, and the threat of a resurgence in domestic inflation (especially energy prices), my sense is that Chinese GDP growth will slow down to the 7% to 9% range in 2009, even though the economy may get a slight bump from the Sichuan rebuilding in the coming months. Finally, an economic slowdown for the host country following the Olympics is not without precedent. According to a recent study by the Bank of China on the last 12 Olympic Games, the host country's annual GDP growth during the eight years after the Games was 0.4% to 2.5% lower than the eight years prior to the Games. With regards to the Games in Asia (Tokyo Olympics in 1964 and the Seoul Olympics in 1988), economic growth in both Japan and South Korea slowed by more than 2% on a year-over-year basis after the Games. Again, while I don't believe that China will slip into a recession after the Games (even the chances of 0% to 5% growth is very unlikely), my sense is that Chinese economic growth will slip to a range of 7% to 9% later this year and into 2009.
 
f4f

f4f

翠鸟科
masgui ha scritto:
:zappo: :zappo: :zappo: :zappo: :zappo: :sorpresa: :sorpresa:
Clicca per allargare...


gooood morning bbbanda

sei al lauoro MaZgui?
:cool:
c'è di slide da finire,
mercati da domare
tassi da caualcare

Gipa.... azz, qui piove :help: tutto detto sul mio animo :rolleyes:
 
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