Bund-bonds-wheats-trips on trikeko street (VM1987Ani) (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
mancano sempre in coppia 
chissà perkè 
chissà perkè
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
sto leggendo in giro cose pazzesche , roba tipo che la fed taglia i tassi o sta domenica o settimana prox
questa l'ho trovata nel forum del FT
Lehman bidders named, Treasury and Fed to resist public subsidy
Bank of America is leading a consortium that includes JC Flowers and China Investment Corp, the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, in a joint bid for Lehman Brothers.
Here’s the breaking FT story from Henny Sender, Francesco Guerrera and Peter Thal Larsen.
Separately, from Washington Krishna Guha reports that the putative bidders should not expect Bear Stearns-style financing and guarantees from the authorities. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve want/need to break the notion that in a rescue public money will be used to protect debt holders while equity holders get wiped out.
Snap FT Alphaville view: The Fed and US Treasury just cannot have everyone doin’ a Pimco. Therein lies political as well as economic ruin.
It’s also the case that Lehman’s counterparties have had plenty of time to plan and position themselves for a possible collapse of the bank. Those on Wall Street pleading “systemic risk” have a weaker hand.
That said, the authorities do in fact want to avoid a collapse.
So they are testing the market. The more negative the reaction on Friday, the bigger the eventual subsidy when a deal is actually hammered out. And vice versa.
Sunday is not necessarily a hard deadline, like everyone thinks. This is now about finding a solution before the credit rating agencies move to downgrade. And rating agencies executive can, of course, be lent on…
Plan B? if prices tank, cut rates next week.
questa l'ho trovata nel forum del FT
Lehman bidders named, Treasury and Fed to resist public subsidy
Bank of America is leading a consortium that includes JC Flowers and China Investment Corp, the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, in a joint bid for Lehman Brothers.
Here’s the breaking FT story from Henny Sender, Francesco Guerrera and Peter Thal Larsen.
Separately, from Washington Krishna Guha reports that the putative bidders should not expect Bear Stearns-style financing and guarantees from the authorities. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve want/need to break the notion that in a rescue public money will be used to protect debt holders while equity holders get wiped out.
Snap FT Alphaville view: The Fed and US Treasury just cannot have everyone doin’ a Pimco. Therein lies political as well as economic ruin.
It’s also the case that Lehman’s counterparties have had plenty of time to plan and position themselves for a possible collapse of the bank. Those on Wall Street pleading “systemic risk” have a weaker hand.
That said, the authorities do in fact want to avoid a collapse.
So they are testing the market. The more negative the reaction on Friday, the bigger the eventual subsidy when a deal is actually hammered out. And vice versa.
Sunday is not necessarily a hard deadline, like everyone thinks. This is now about finding a solution before the credit rating agencies move to downgrade. And rating agencies executive can, of course, be lent on…
Plan B? if prices tank, cut rates next week.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
i fedfunds in effetti non lo escludono fino a mar sono più verso un taglio che per un rialzo 98,05-98.10
fino a mar sono più verso un taglio che per un rialzo 98,05-98.10
giomf
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:sto leggendo in giro cose pazzesche , roba tipo che la fed taglia i tassi o sta domenica o settimana prox
A proposito . . nei prox. giorni c'è in calendario questa benedetta riunione--FED.. già stabilita...
oppure ce ne può essere solo una straordinaria . . ?
.
f4f
翠鸟科
Fleursdumal ha scritto:i fedfunds in effetti non lo escludono
welll
darebbe ossigeno ai loro debiti
sarebbe chiedere un pò troppo al resto del mondo, però
stanno veramente tirando il gioco fino all'inverosimile
a meno che non abbiano un asso nella manica ( anche se è un pò da bari )
quando scatterà, sarà una molla moooolto forte...
ditropan
Forumer storico
fonte : http://www.hotmarketmaven.com/archives/article.php?id=466
Short US Bonds: Trade of the Decade
September 12, 2008
With the current correction in commodities, a global economic slowdown, the credit crisis, and plunging equity markets, investors have piled into the U.S. debt markets due to their perceived safety in times of market turmoil. One day we may come to realize that their supposed risk free status is seriously flawed. A proper examination of the credit status of the U.S. Government credit worthiness might conclude a completely different picture. When you buy U.S. government bonds, notes, or T-bills you are in effect lending money to the U.S. government. Most investors are not willing to consider the reality of risk or possible default of U.S. government debt. However, it is essential to evaluate the credit status of an entity before lending money. Have the investors that have bid up U.S. bond prices to near record levels, in the midst of the crisis, overlooked this important aspect? If so, then are we witnessing opportunity to profit as U.S. bond prices plunge?
With falling commodity prices over the past couple of months, it seems that investors are beginning to believe Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke when he recently explained how inflation will moderate in the months ahead. With low inflation expectations, investors are more willing to except a small loss through negative real rates of return versus the potential for a large loss in stocks, real estate, or in the plunging commodities markets. The 10 year Treasury note, for example, is currently trading at about 117 which represents a yield of about 3.8%. The Bureau of Labor’s recent numbers showed the CPI is currently running at 5.6%. If you believe the BLS, then buying the 10 year Treasury notes will earn you a negative 1.8% return. Not bad, when considering that your year over year real return in the S&P 500 would have been around a negative 30%. You might consider taking positions based on the opposite of what the Federal Reserve is saying, because most often they are wrong or simply trying to deceive the public. Here is what Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and former chairman Alan Greenspan said before the U.S. housing market began to drop in October 2005.
Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
“U.S. House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.” Nell Henderson, The Washington Post, 2005
“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that last week's rise in weekly mortgage applications could signal that the ``worst may well be over'' for the U.S. housing industry, according to a report of a speech Greenspan gave in Canada on Friday.” - John Shinal, Market Watch, October 7, 2006
The credit of an entity is only as good as its ability to service its debts. If you are increasing the rate that you are spending more than you are making it does not bode well for servicing your debt.
Recently the Congressional Budget Office said that the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal 2008, which is $407 billion, will be more than double the deficit in 2007, due to wars and a weak economy and it is predicted to rise further in fiscal 2009.
Social Security and Medicare are technically bankrupt, while the U.S. budget debt will soon pass $10 trillion.
10 Year Treasury Notes - Monthly
The credit crisis is still in the initial stages. Economists continue to raise their estimates of the amount of losses we will see in the financial system. Here is what Nouriel Roubini said in an interview with Barron’s magazine.
The taxpayer's bill is going to be huge. I estimate this financial crisis will lead to credit losses of at least $1 trillion and most likely closer to $2 trillion. When I made this analysis in February everybody thought I was a lunatic. But a few weeks later the International Monetary Fund came out with an estimate of $945 billion, Goldman Sachs (GS) estimated $1.1 trillion and UBS (UBS) $1 trillion. Hedge-fund manager John Paulson recently estimated the losses would be $1.3 trillion, and late last month Bridgewater Associates came up with an estimate of $1.6 trillion. So, at this point $1 trillion isn't a ceiling, it's a floor. And the banks, as I've said, have written down only about $300 billion of subprime debt.
As we move further in to the crisis, the Federal Reserve will most likely continue to bailout the financial system. The Fed is now holding a substantial portion of the toxic Bear Stearns debt on its balance sheet. As more bailouts come, we may enter a period where they begin to monetize the debt. In the end, it will cost tax payers trillions of dollars in indirect taxes through inflation.
The United States AAA credit status may not be as good as we think. With massive bailouts, inflationary pressures, and the threat of rising interest rates, we might one day see the U.S. Treasury debt downgraded. With inflationary pressures building, investors might look for higher yielding investments to protect their wealth. If they begin to move out of the U.S. debt market we could begin to see the U.S. bond market take a turn for the worse.
30-Year Treasury Bond Futures – Monthly
The chart above shows the U.S. 30 Year Treasury bond approaching a major resistance level. After getting confirmation that the market has turned, traders might want to consider shorting Treasuries or buying puts.
Short US Bonds: Trade of the Decade
September 12, 2008
With the current correction in commodities, a global economic slowdown, the credit crisis, and plunging equity markets, investors have piled into the U.S. debt markets due to their perceived safety in times of market turmoil. One day we may come to realize that their supposed risk free status is seriously flawed. A proper examination of the credit status of the U.S. Government credit worthiness might conclude a completely different picture. When you buy U.S. government bonds, notes, or T-bills you are in effect lending money to the U.S. government. Most investors are not willing to consider the reality of risk or possible default of U.S. government debt. However, it is essential to evaluate the credit status of an entity before lending money. Have the investors that have bid up U.S. bond prices to near record levels, in the midst of the crisis, overlooked this important aspect? If so, then are we witnessing opportunity to profit as U.S. bond prices plunge?
With falling commodity prices over the past couple of months, it seems that investors are beginning to believe Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke when he recently explained how inflation will moderate in the months ahead. With low inflation expectations, investors are more willing to except a small loss through negative real rates of return versus the potential for a large loss in stocks, real estate, or in the plunging commodities markets. The 10 year Treasury note, for example, is currently trading at about 117 which represents a yield of about 3.8%. The Bureau of Labor’s recent numbers showed the CPI is currently running at 5.6%. If you believe the BLS, then buying the 10 year Treasury notes will earn you a negative 1.8% return. Not bad, when considering that your year over year real return in the S&P 500 would have been around a negative 30%. You might consider taking positions based on the opposite of what the Federal Reserve is saying, because most often they are wrong or simply trying to deceive the public. Here is what Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and former chairman Alan Greenspan said before the U.S. housing market began to drop in October 2005.
Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
“U.S. House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.” Nell Henderson, The Washington Post, 2005
“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that last week's rise in weekly mortgage applications could signal that the ``worst may well be over'' for the U.S. housing industry, according to a report of a speech Greenspan gave in Canada on Friday.” - John Shinal, Market Watch, October 7, 2006
The credit of an entity is only as good as its ability to service its debts. If you are increasing the rate that you are spending more than you are making it does not bode well for servicing your debt.
Recently the Congressional Budget Office said that the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal 2008, which is $407 billion, will be more than double the deficit in 2007, due to wars and a weak economy and it is predicted to rise further in fiscal 2009.
Social Security and Medicare are technically bankrupt, while the U.S. budget debt will soon pass $10 trillion.
10 Year Treasury Notes - Monthly
The credit crisis is still in the initial stages. Economists continue to raise their estimates of the amount of losses we will see in the financial system. Here is what Nouriel Roubini said in an interview with Barron’s magazine.
The taxpayer's bill is going to be huge. I estimate this financial crisis will lead to credit losses of at least $1 trillion and most likely closer to $2 trillion. When I made this analysis in February everybody thought I was a lunatic. But a few weeks later the International Monetary Fund came out with an estimate of $945 billion, Goldman Sachs (GS) estimated $1.1 trillion and UBS (UBS) $1 trillion. Hedge-fund manager John Paulson recently estimated the losses would be $1.3 trillion, and late last month Bridgewater Associates came up with an estimate of $1.6 trillion. So, at this point $1 trillion isn't a ceiling, it's a floor. And the banks, as I've said, have written down only about $300 billion of subprime debt.
As we move further in to the crisis, the Federal Reserve will most likely continue to bailout the financial system. The Fed is now holding a substantial portion of the toxic Bear Stearns debt on its balance sheet. As more bailouts come, we may enter a period where they begin to monetize the debt. In the end, it will cost tax payers trillions of dollars in indirect taxes through inflation.
The United States AAA credit status may not be as good as we think. With massive bailouts, inflationary pressures, and the threat of rising interest rates, we might one day see the U.S. Treasury debt downgraded. With inflationary pressures building, investors might look for higher yielding investments to protect their wealth. If they begin to move out of the U.S. debt market we could begin to see the U.S. bond market take a turn for the worse.
30-Year Treasury Bond Futures – Monthly
The chart above shows the U.S. 30 Year Treasury bond approaching a major resistance level. After getting confirmation that the market has turned, traders might want to consider shorting Treasuries or buying puts.