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Treasuries fall amid mortgage-related selling
Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:53 PM ET
(Adds quote, detail on auction; updates prices)
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell for the second straight day on Wednesday as selling related to the mortgage market sent benchmark yields to their highest levels since March.
Yields -- and mortgage rates -- have moved higher in the last several weeks, largely because the Federal Reserve has clearly signaled it aims to head off any rising inflationary pressure by raising official interest rates.
Most of the
mortgage-related selling occurred early in the session, with the market then turning its attention to a Treasury auction of $20 billion in new two-year notes at 1 p.m. (1700 GMT).
Many traders and strategists had been saying that if benchmark yields moved above 4.50 percent, and then 4.53 percent, mortgage bond players were likely to start selling Treasuries to counter the effects of "negative convexity."
Selling Treasuries helps mortgage bond holders minimize the negative effects of mortgage bonds remaining on their books for longer than expected because rates are rising.
"There is a lot of talk ... that (above) 4.50 percent mortgage holders need to hedge their negative convexity. That has definitely been around the market," said Adam Brown, co-head of U.S. trading at Barclays Capital in New York.
Benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell another 7/32 after shedding 20/32 on Tuesday. The yield on Wednesday was at 4.57 percent, off from a high of 4.605 percent reached as selling got underway but up from 4.54 percent late Tuesday.
One aspect of convexity selling is that it can become a vicious circle and intensify a Treasuries market sell-off.
"This is going to be a very important day today. If we end lower than this (in price), it could be the start of a two-week move. But if we stand here and we don't see more selling, guys will be cleaned up and we could trend a little higher over the next week," Brown added.
Chart watchers are now targeting yields in the 4.60 to 4.63 percent range, part of a cluster of highs reached in late March.
Wednesday's price fall took many by surprise on a day free of any major new economic data.
Longer-dated debt was moving more than notes on the short end of the market, leading some analysts to wonder whether the bond market was expressing inflation-related anxiety about the nomination of Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Some in the market fear the Fed chairman-designate might be a bit softer on fighting inflation than Alan Greenspan, based on Bernanke's reputation as an inflation targeter.
"That had something to do with it," one bond trader said of the Bernanke factor, adding that there was some downward pressure on two-year notes related to the auction.
The fear is that Bernanke could move too slowly to control building inflationary pressures if he fails to pull the trigger on a rate increase until his inflation target is reached.
Greenspan, by comparison, has employed a data-intensive, yet intuitive approach that has done much to fuel his credentials as an inflation fighter, analysts said.
Two days after Bernanke's nomination to the Fed, yields on 10-year notes were 17 basis points higher. They were 16 basis points higher two days after Greenspan's appointment in 1987, according to data compiled by Lehman Brothers.
Others in the market reckon the succession itself may be to blame for any volatility in the bond market rather than the specific appointment of Bernanke.
In the end, analysts say the market's performance is about inflation data, and bond investors abhor inflation because it erodes the value of their investments.
"Where we end up on (the 10-year) is based on core inflation measures, and if you don't see any significant passing through of these higher energy prices, then we're going to stop selling," said Kevin Flanagan, a fixed income strategist at Morgan Stanley in White Plains, New York.
The two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1/32 at a yield of 4.36 percent, up from 4.34 percent on Tuesday. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4/32 for a yield of 4.44 percent from 4.41 percent on Tuesday, while 30-year notes (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 16/32 to 4.78 percent, compared with 4.74 percent on Tuesday.
The day's only data showed U.S. mortgage applications fell 7.9 percent last week as both purchases and refinancing eased.
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