son scesi a piombo su rumours dei dati di domani, quindi va a vedere che è tutto un fake :smile: cià cè
U.S. Treasuries down amid retail sales data buzz
(Adds Greenspan details, retail sales data talk; updates prices)
By Oliver Ludwig
NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Monday as talk of strong October retail sales data quickly worked its way through a market anxiously anticipating a heavy week of data.
The government's retail sales data, due on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT), was hanging over trade on Monday after a private sector report that, excluding autos, sales rose 0.6 percent -- well above economists' expectations of a 0.2 percent increase in Tuesday's separate data.
The report from SpendingPulse, a data service unit of MasterCard, filtered through a market eager for something to trade on, and was morphed into rumors that the data were leaked by the government.
"The rumor hurting the market is about a 0.6 percent gain (in retail sales) ex-autos, and is being talked up as a leak. This is not the official figure," said David Ader, U.S. government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich, who reckoned the effects would be short-lived.
Prices moved lower in a market that associates strong growth with inflationary pressures, and therefore with Federal Reserve interest rate increases designed to head off those inflationary pressures.
The 10-year Treasury note fell 15/32 in price for a yield 4.61 percent, up from 4.56 percent on Thursday, the day before the bond market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day holiday. Last week, the yield rose as high as 4.69 percent, a multi-month high.
"I've never heard of that (SpendingPulse) report until now, but the market got a little bit out of it," said one trader at a primary Treasuries dealer, adding that the market was also giving back some of its gains following Thursday's successful auction of 10-year notes.
Also on Monday, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the current account passed with little fanfare. The outgoing Fed chief said the rising dollar was not precluding the funding of the nation's current deficit, but again warned that the imbalance was not sustainable.
The two-year note eased 3/32 in price to yield 4.49 percent from 4.44 percent on Thursday.
The spread between two- and 10-year notes was 12 basis points, just above lows set in August, bringing into focus the possibility of an inversion, wherein two-year notes would yield more than 10-year notes.
The five-year note ticked down 6/32 in price to yield 4.53 percent against 4.48 percent on Thursday. The 30-year bond eased 17/32 in price to yield 4.78 percent, up from 4.74 percent late on Thursday.
Aside from the retail sales focus, traders are also awaiting inflation data, particularly the consumer price index on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Economists polled by Reuters estimated that the consumer price index was flat in October while the core CPI, the index without food and energy items, rose 0.2 percent.
But the inflation focus begins with the producer price index on Tuesday but because of the importance of consumer spending to the economy, traders are likely to watch the CPI more closely.
"The market has priced in significant rate hikes and 10-year yields are going up and came to significant resistance at 4.69 percent. I don't expect that the inflation data will come in so bad that (the yield) may jump above this level," said Peter Mueller, interest rate strategist at Commerzbank.
The market is also keen on taking in what Greeenspan's likely successor, Ben Bernanke, has to say on Tuesday, when the Senate Banking Committee begins his confirmation hearings.
"We expect he will be a little more reticent than Greenspan on matters beyond Fed policy until he has a chance to get his feet on the ground," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"But he will have to answer for policy choices he made while he served at the White House," Low said, adding he thought Bernanke was sure to be confirmed.