queste le ultime dal forex e nun me dì che non capisci l'inglese
FOREX-Yen weighed down by rising cost of oil
Tuesday, September 28, 2004 12:30:22 PM
http://www.reuters.com
(Updates prices and comments, changes byline)
By Justyna Pawlak
LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The yen sank to a four-month low against the euro and a six-week low versus the dollar on Tuesday as investors fretted that soaring oil prices could jeopardise Japan's economic recovery.
U.S. crude oil futures rose to record highs above $50 a barrel <CLc1> as supply worries compounded concerns over low fuel stocks ahead of winter demand.
The threat of slower global growth in the wake of costly fuel prices is encouraging investors to pull out of growth-oriented trades and seek safety in more defensive currencies, said Aziz McMahon, currency strategist at ABN AMRO in London.
"Euro/yen is the most defensive cross (exchange rate) when global growth expectations fall. The euro tends to do well with positive bond sentiment and the yen tends to do badly with negative stocks sentiment," he said.
A further slide in Tokyo's stock market and jitters ahead of an upcoming Japanese business sentiment survey also weighed on the yen, knocking it a third of a percent to lows of 111.73 per dollar <JPY=> and 137.49 per euro <EURJPY=> by 1200 GMT.
Japan's Nikkei share average fell to a six-week closing low on Tuesday, marking an eight-day losing streak -- its longest since December 2002. However in Europe, oil companies propped up share indices.
CRUDE QUESTIONS
The euro gained 0.2 percent on the day against the dollar, trading well within recent ranges at $1.2335 <EUR=>, as investors awaited a U.S. consumer confidence survey later in the day for clues on the health of the world's biggest economy.
"Euro/yen gains played a role in the euro/dollar gains," said Peter Wuyts, market analyst at KBC in Brussels. "Oil prices are of course driving the euro/yen rally."
The Conference Board releases its September consumer confidence index at 1400 GMT. Economists polled by Reuters expect the main index to have recovered slightly this month, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 in August.
However, the figures will just serve as a small piece of the economic puzzle in the U.S. as oil prices and inflation leave the outlook unclear and keep currencies stuck in broad trading ranges.
A Reuters poll also showed on Tuesday that analysts expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at two percent for the rest of the year. This would mean less fuel to break the euro out its recent trading ranges.
MORE YEN WOES?
Yen selling was broad-based, bringing the yen down to multi-week lows against high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar <AUDJPY=R> and sterling <GBPJPY=R>.
Umberto Alvisi, currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in London, said the yen came under similar selling pressure the last time oil prices were notching record highs, in August.
"Asia is more dependent on oil than other regions and people expect costly oil to take its toll on growth," he said. "We are seeing the same reaction as last time."
Nervousness ahead of Friday's quarterly "tankan" business sentiment survey also weighed on the yen, particularly after some disappointing economic data out of Japan in recent weeks.
A Reuters poll showed a median forecast of plus 23 for the quarterly survey's headline figure.
Although that would be a slight improvement from plus 22 in the June survey -- as well as the strongest reading since August 1991 -- some market players consider such a figure would be a sign that Japanese economic growth may have plateaued.
, quindi vediamo come va a finire - finalmente mi faccio una doccia 
, non si sono tenuti stretti i gain che gli avevo fatto fare 
