Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa) (13 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Noooo
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:
ma cosa mi vai lubgo sui bonds adesso !!!!
Paaaaazzzzoooo d'un matto !!!!
figurati testyna , sono solo dei momentanei long di 10y per provare ad aggiustarmi un pò lo spread dove campeggiano short di T-Bond :smile:
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:se ti fanno passare alla frontiera se può fà
e perchè no !!! ... pronto ad inseminare tutte le tue cugggggine !!!
.... senti ... scherzi a parte come stà Dan ?
conoscendo la forza taumaturgica degli inseminators di sto post se qualche mia cugina ci legge mi viene a strozzare
il bischero deve stare nel letto a riposo per una decina di gg , la neuro ha già provveduto a mettergli una camicia di forza plus-rinforzata
Andrea 53
Forumer storico
ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:il bischero deve stare nel letto a riposo per una decina di gg , la neuro ha già provveduto a mettergli una camicia di forza plus-rinforzata
si può sapere che cosa gli è capitato ?
colpo della strega
ciao banda ...il bund mi ha restituito altri 200€ cosi ora me ne deve solo 3500 speriamo che continui a pagare puntuale
buonanotte a tutti
gastronomo
Forumer storico
DJ Debt Futures Review: Bonds Slide As Flattening Trades Unwound
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Treasury bond and 10-year note futures in Chicago
weakened Tuesday, while two-year note and Eurodollar futures strengthened, as
market participants unwound some of their recent curve-flattening trades,
market watchers said.
Meanwhile, a technician suggested that bond futures might have been
approaching a top, based on analysis of Commitment of Traders and open-
interest data.
Dec 10-year notes settled down 2 ticks at 113-12, while Dec Treasury bonds
lost 10 ticks to 113-16. However, Dec two-year notes added 1.5 ticks to 105-23
and Mar Eurodollars edged up 1.5 basis points to 97.48.
During a recent rally, the bonds and 10-year notes had outperformed the
two-years as traders took out curve-flattening trades. The reverse occurred on
Tuesday.
"There was a lot of flatteners being unwound," said John Kosar, senior
research analyst in Chicago with Bianco Research. "That was putting some
selling pressure on the long end of the market."
Beth Malloy, bond-market analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com, pointed
out that the differential between two- and 10-year cash yields flattened from
162-163 basis points to 144 lately, before moving out to 150 again on Tuesday.
"The curve has been steepening all day after a fairly dramatic move
flatter over the course of the last week," she said.
"There has been a decent amount of fund selling going on in the long end.
It was not huge and out of control. But there seemed to be a lack of interest
in the buy side."
Kosar explained that several of the indicators he watches suggest a lack
of conviction in buying into the long end of the curve.
Dec Treasury bonds moved above their recent 114-02 contract high after a
soft consumer-confidence report Tuesday morning, but only by a single tick. At
that time, a broker reported that when no follow-through buying emerged, some
longs started liquidating their positions to book profits.
The bonds have been on a mostly upward course since May. When open
interest expands while prices are climbing, it indicates a bullish conviction
on the part of traders willing to hang onto their long positions overnight.
During the last month or so, however, open interest was falling even as bond
prices were rising, pointed out Kosar.
Meanwhile, last week's Commitments of Traders data showed that the
hedgers had a net short position of 89,380 as of Sept. 21, which was the
greatest since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission changed reporting
requirements of bonds in May 2000, said Kosar. Meanwhile, the large non-
commercial accounts, or speculators, had their greatest net long position
since May 2000 of 75,804.
"This is what typically happens at a market top," Kosar said. "You have
the hedgers with a huge short position and you have the large speculators with
a large net long position. They are trend-following types. Of course, the
longer a trend is in effect, the more net long they going to be because they
keep following it up and buying more and more. They are now very vulnerable to
the market going the other way."
Kosar pointed out that the net long position of the large speculators
climbed by 10,165 in the week to Sept. 21. When that period began, the "best"
or lowest price they could have bought Dec bonds was 111-02, said Kosar.
"If we drop far enough to get into that 111 handle so that some of these
new long positions start feeling the heat, like they had better get out, that
could spiral into some more selling pressure," he said.
Yet another indicator suggesting the market could be ready to turn is the
Daily Sentiment Index, which measures the sentiment of smaller-account retail
traders, said Kosar. Recent data has shown record bullishness in bonds for
these traders.
"These guys are usually the most notorious for being the most wrong at
the major turns," said Kosar. Then when the market turns against them, they
have to get out of their positions quickly since they don't have the large
accounts that might let them try to ride a move out.
"Once the market starts going against them, they panic, pick up their
phone and call their broker. So that exerts a certain amount of selling
pressure," said Kosar.
The analyst said that still one other factor that could work against
Treasury prices is a trendline in cash 10-year yields, dating back to a yield
peak in January of 2000, passing through roughly 3.91%. The yield came down
nearly to this trendline lately and held, and now the yield has now moved back
up just above 4.0%.
"So there are a lot of little pieces in place here that say the market's
recent rally has been not full of bullish conviction," said Kosar. He
added: "The trend for bonds is clearly up, but for a new long position in
bonds, the downside risk far outweighs the potential for upside gain at this
point."
As for Tuesday morning's economic data, the consumer-confidence index
slipped to 96.8 in September from 98.7 in August. The forecast had been for a
reading of around 99.0.
The government is scheduled to issue its final revision to second-quarter
gross domestic product at 0730 CT (1230 GMT) Wednesday. The expectation is for
growth to be 3.1%.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Treasury bond and 10-year note futures in Chicago
weakened Tuesday, while two-year note and Eurodollar futures strengthened, as
market participants unwound some of their recent curve-flattening trades,
market watchers said.
Meanwhile, a technician suggested that bond futures might have been
approaching a top, based on analysis of Commitment of Traders and open-
interest data.
Dec 10-year notes settled down 2 ticks at 113-12, while Dec Treasury bonds
lost 10 ticks to 113-16. However, Dec two-year notes added 1.5 ticks to 105-23
and Mar Eurodollars edged up 1.5 basis points to 97.48.
During a recent rally, the bonds and 10-year notes had outperformed the
two-years as traders took out curve-flattening trades. The reverse occurred on
Tuesday.
"There was a lot of flatteners being unwound," said John Kosar, senior
research analyst in Chicago with Bianco Research. "That was putting some
selling pressure on the long end of the market."
Beth Malloy, bond-market analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com, pointed
out that the differential between two- and 10-year cash yields flattened from
162-163 basis points to 144 lately, before moving out to 150 again on Tuesday.
"The curve has been steepening all day after a fairly dramatic move
flatter over the course of the last week," she said.
"There has been a decent amount of fund selling going on in the long end.
It was not huge and out of control. But there seemed to be a lack of interest
in the buy side."
Kosar explained that several of the indicators he watches suggest a lack
of conviction in buying into the long end of the curve.
Dec Treasury bonds moved above their recent 114-02 contract high after a
soft consumer-confidence report Tuesday morning, but only by a single tick. At
that time, a broker reported that when no follow-through buying emerged, some
longs started liquidating their positions to book profits.
The bonds have been on a mostly upward course since May. When open
interest expands while prices are climbing, it indicates a bullish conviction
on the part of traders willing to hang onto their long positions overnight.
During the last month or so, however, open interest was falling even as bond
prices were rising, pointed out Kosar.
Meanwhile, last week's Commitments of Traders data showed that the
hedgers had a net short position of 89,380 as of Sept. 21, which was the
greatest since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission changed reporting
requirements of bonds in May 2000, said Kosar. Meanwhile, the large non-
commercial accounts, or speculators, had their greatest net long position
since May 2000 of 75,804.
"This is what typically happens at a market top," Kosar said. "You have
the hedgers with a huge short position and you have the large speculators with
a large net long position. They are trend-following types. Of course, the
longer a trend is in effect, the more net long they going to be because they
keep following it up and buying more and more. They are now very vulnerable to
the market going the other way."
Kosar pointed out that the net long position of the large speculators
climbed by 10,165 in the week to Sept. 21. When that period began, the "best"
or lowest price they could have bought Dec bonds was 111-02, said Kosar.
"If we drop far enough to get into that 111 handle so that some of these
new long positions start feeling the heat, like they had better get out, that
could spiral into some more selling pressure," he said.
Yet another indicator suggesting the market could be ready to turn is the
Daily Sentiment Index, which measures the sentiment of smaller-account retail
traders, said Kosar. Recent data has shown record bullishness in bonds for
these traders.
"These guys are usually the most notorious for being the most wrong at
the major turns," said Kosar. Then when the market turns against them, they
have to get out of their positions quickly since they don't have the large
accounts that might let them try to ride a move out.
"Once the market starts going against them, they panic, pick up their
phone and call their broker. So that exerts a certain amount of selling
pressure," said Kosar.
The analyst said that still one other factor that could work against
Treasury prices is a trendline in cash 10-year yields, dating back to a yield
peak in January of 2000, passing through roughly 3.91%. The yield came down
nearly to this trendline lately and held, and now the yield has now moved back
up just above 4.0%.
"So there are a lot of little pieces in place here that say the market's
recent rally has been not full of bullish conviction," said Kosar. He
added: "The trend for bonds is clearly up, but for a new long position in
bonds, the downside risk far outweighs the potential for upside gain at this
point."
As for Tuesday morning's economic data, the consumer-confidence index
slipped to 96.8 in September from 98.7 in August. The forecast had been for a
reading of around 99.0.
The government is scheduled to issue its final revision to second-quarter
gross domestic product at 0730 CT (1230 GMT) Wednesday. The expectation is for
growth to be 3.1%.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
