Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa)
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... buona lettura e buon fine settimana
WRAPUP 2-Cleveland Fed chief says U.S. needs higher rates
Fri Sep 10, 2004 05:34 PM ET
(Updates with St. Louis Fed president Poole appearance)
By Zelie Pollon
SANTA ANA PUEBLO, N.M, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates should rise to forestall future price pressures, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said on Friday, while conceding that inflation did not pose a major threat now.
Pianalto's take on current inflation was echoed by St. Louis Fed chief William Poole in a separate appearance.
"As the economy continues to expand, we can continue to withdraw our policy accommodation so that we do not unintentionally promote an inflationary environment down the road," Pianalto told an Ohio bankers' meeting in New Mexico.
"Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently," said the Cleveland Fed chief, a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year.
The bellwether federal funds rate currently stands at 1.5 percent after two quarter-point increases this year.
Pianalto said history suggests a more neutral rate level -- one that neither spurs nor restrains growth -- could be around 3 percent to 5 percent for an economy at full potential.
Economists widely expect a third rate rise at the Fed's next policy meeting on Sept. 21, particularly after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said this week the economy had "regained some traction."
St. Louis Fed chief Poole told reporters after a panel discussion on trade in St. Louis he was not overly worried about the mid-year economic "soft patch."
"I'm not that concerned the soft patch is creating a problem," he said, adding that mixed early readings on August retail sales may have been due to the timing of the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.
Pianalto, likewise, said she believed the economy was on a self-sustaining growth path.
"I expect growth to remain at a solid pace for the foreseeable future," the Cleveland Fed president said.
"In addition, I am less concerned today than I was in the spring about the prospect of a sustained increase in inflation," she added, saying commodity price rises did not appear to have passed into the cost of finished goods "to any significant degree."
Oil prices top Pianalto's list of economic concerns right now. "Fortunately, recent signs show that energy price pressures are abating, but it is an area I intend to watch very closely," she said.
While Pianalto conceded employment had lagged, she called the August payrolls gain of 144,000 new jobs and upward revisions to the June and July tallies "mildly encouraging."
Remarks from Fed Board Governor Edward Gramlich and Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer earlier offered little insight into their views on the current economy or rates.
Pianalto said business people in her bank's district had urged her to keep Fed-governed short-term rates low.
"I encourage you to view the ... recent policy direction as good news," she said. "At this stage of the expansion, rising interest rates in fact reflect a return to a more normal economic environment."
e ancora...
US Treasuries gains erode on upbeat Fed comments
Fri Sep 10, 2004 05:19 PM ET
(Updates prices, adds Poole comments)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices ended barely higher on Friday as gains made after a surprise drop in August producer prices were eroded by upbeat remarks by two regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents.
St. Louis Fed President William Poole said the recent soft patch in the U.S. economy should prove fleeting.
If so, that would lessen the need for any pause in the Fed's measured program of monetary tightening, which has taken its key interest rate to 1.50 percent from a low of 1.00 percent since June.
"I'm not that concerned the soft patch is creating a problem," Poole told reporters after a speech in St. Louis.
Earlier, upbeat comments on the economy from Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto also helped cut bond price gains.
A firmer stock market also chipped away at gains, especially when the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was unable to push below the week's low yield of 4.15 percent.
The 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 2/32 for a yield of 4.19 percent, down from 4.20 percent late Thursday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 5/32 to yield 4.98 percent, down from 4.99 percent on Thursday. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 1/32 to yield 3.40 percent vs. 3.41 percent, and two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were steady at a yield of 2.49 percent.
The August PPI fell by 0.1 percent vs. forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise, and also dipped by 0.1 percent with the food and energy sectors stripped out.
The declines in the headline and core PPI were the first since November 2003. Poole said the report showed inflation was "well controlled."
Traders now look to the August consumer price index report, due Sept. 16. "The favorable inflation scenario faces a big test with the release of August CPI," said Robert Keiser, agency and Eurodollar analyst at IFR Markets.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 21 meeting, taking the fed funds rate to 1.75 percent.
The PPI stirred a few more doubts about Fed action in November and December. Futures now imply a year-end rate of 1.96 percent, down from 2.00 percent a week ago.
Analysts have recently take the view that the Fed will forego an interest rate increase in November, and possibly December as well.
"The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory," said Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.
Still, Pianalto, like Poole a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year, said further tightening can be expected even while oil prices stay high.
"Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently," she told a meeting in New Mexico.
Earlier, the government said the U.S. trade deficit for July slipped to $50.1 billion from a record high $55.2 billion in June. In contrast to June, the latest number was below market expectations.
"Today's positive report on the trade deficit is a strong sign for third quarter real GDP," said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens and Thompson.
... buona lettura e buon fine settimana WRAPUP 2-Cleveland Fed chief says U.S. needs higher rates
Fri Sep 10, 2004 05:34 PM ET
(Updates with St. Louis Fed president Poole appearance)
By Zelie Pollon
SANTA ANA PUEBLO, N.M, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates should rise to forestall future price pressures, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said on Friday, while conceding that inflation did not pose a major threat now.
Pianalto's take on current inflation was echoed by St. Louis Fed chief William Poole in a separate appearance.
"As the economy continues to expand, we can continue to withdraw our policy accommodation so that we do not unintentionally promote an inflationary environment down the road," Pianalto told an Ohio bankers' meeting in New Mexico.
"Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently," said the Cleveland Fed chief, a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year.
The bellwether federal funds rate currently stands at 1.5 percent after two quarter-point increases this year.
Pianalto said history suggests a more neutral rate level -- one that neither spurs nor restrains growth -- could be around 3 percent to 5 percent for an economy at full potential.
Economists widely expect a third rate rise at the Fed's next policy meeting on Sept. 21, particularly after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said this week the economy had "regained some traction."
St. Louis Fed chief Poole told reporters after a panel discussion on trade in St. Louis he was not overly worried about the mid-year economic "soft patch."
"I'm not that concerned the soft patch is creating a problem," he said, adding that mixed early readings on August retail sales may have been due to the timing of the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.
Pianalto, likewise, said she believed the economy was on a self-sustaining growth path.
"I expect growth to remain at a solid pace for the foreseeable future," the Cleveland Fed president said.
"In addition, I am less concerned today than I was in the spring about the prospect of a sustained increase in inflation," she added, saying commodity price rises did not appear to have passed into the cost of finished goods "to any significant degree."
Oil prices top Pianalto's list of economic concerns right now. "Fortunately, recent signs show that energy price pressures are abating, but it is an area I intend to watch very closely," she said.
While Pianalto conceded employment had lagged, she called the August payrolls gain of 144,000 new jobs and upward revisions to the June and July tallies "mildly encouraging."
Remarks from Fed Board Governor Edward Gramlich and Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer earlier offered little insight into their views on the current economy or rates.
Pianalto said business people in her bank's district had urged her to keep Fed-governed short-term rates low.
"I encourage you to view the ... recent policy direction as good news," she said. "At this stage of the expansion, rising interest rates in fact reflect a return to a more normal economic environment."
e ancora...
US Treasuries gains erode on upbeat Fed comments
Fri Sep 10, 2004 05:19 PM ET
(Updates prices, adds Poole comments)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices ended barely higher on Friday as gains made after a surprise drop in August producer prices were eroded by upbeat remarks by two regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents.
St. Louis Fed President William Poole said the recent soft patch in the U.S. economy should prove fleeting.
If so, that would lessen the need for any pause in the Fed's measured program of monetary tightening, which has taken its key interest rate to 1.50 percent from a low of 1.00 percent since June.
"I'm not that concerned the soft patch is creating a problem," Poole told reporters after a speech in St. Louis.
Earlier, upbeat comments on the economy from Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto also helped cut bond price gains.
A firmer stock market also chipped away at gains, especially when the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was unable to push below the week's low yield of 4.15 percent.
The 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 2/32 for a yield of 4.19 percent, down from 4.20 percent late Thursday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 5/32 to yield 4.98 percent, down from 4.99 percent on Thursday. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 1/32 to yield 3.40 percent vs. 3.41 percent, and two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were steady at a yield of 2.49 percent.
The August PPI fell by 0.1 percent vs. forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise, and also dipped by 0.1 percent with the food and energy sectors stripped out.
The declines in the headline and core PPI were the first since November 2003. Poole said the report showed inflation was "well controlled."
Traders now look to the August consumer price index report, due Sept. 16. "The favorable inflation scenario faces a big test with the release of August CPI," said Robert Keiser, agency and Eurodollar analyst at IFR Markets.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 21 meeting, taking the fed funds rate to 1.75 percent.
The PPI stirred a few more doubts about Fed action in November and December. Futures now imply a year-end rate of 1.96 percent, down from 2.00 percent a week ago.
Analysts have recently take the view that the Fed will forego an interest rate increase in November, and possibly December as well.
"The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory," said Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.
Still, Pianalto, like Poole a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year, said further tightening can be expected even while oil prices stay high.
"Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently," she told a meeting in New Mexico.
Earlier, the government said the U.S. trade deficit for July slipped to $50.1 billion from a record high $55.2 billion in June. In contrast to June, the latest number was below market expectations.
"Today's positive report on the trade deficit is a strong sign for third quarter real GDP," said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin, Kubik, Stephens and Thompson.
spero.lo.0.15%
Forumer attivo
buongiorno a tutti 
oggi un'altra giornata col patema d'animo
sempre sh di 6 bund a 114.54....ho messo 114.43 per ricoprirmi...
speriamo ci arrivi....anzi...
T I R A T E M E L O G I U'.... e' un ordine
chiudo il collegamento e lo riapriamo alle 19.03.00 che oggi mi devo fare un mazzo tanto al lavoro..
e per voi tanti gain
ciao e buona giornata
domenico
oggi un'altra giornata col patema d'animo
sempre sh di 6 bund a 114.54....ho messo 114.43 per ricoprirmi...
speriamo ci arrivi....anzi...
T I R A T E M E L O G I U'.... e' un ordine
chiudo il collegamento e lo riapriamo alle 19.03.00 che oggi mi devo fare un mazzo tanto al lavoro..
e per voi tanti gain
ciao e buona giornata
domenico
gastronomo
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:
- Buongiorno a te, testina di cava , mi pare si stiano "rivendendo" un pò del fly-to-quality del fine settimana - livelli sul bund per oggi:r3 115.73
r2 115.31
r1 115.08
pivot 114.89
s1 114.66
s2 114.47
s3 114.05
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