Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
orco cane stanno sfondando tutto , preso ordine condizionato e long dal pivot centrale sul piccolo
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa) (1 Viewer)
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- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
messo tp 4 tick sopra l'entrata, un sacco di stop saltati e resistenze violate alla grande
spero.lo.0.15%
Forumer attivo
ciao fleu...vedo che sei rimasto solo tu sul campo di battaglia 
seguivo i tuoi pensieri e il tuo scritto dopo l'uscita dei dati...
dal grafico di straforo che ho (ritardato...ecc...ecc.. )
mi viene fuori sul 10y un prezzo alle 20.50 (dieci minuti il ritardo )
di 113.10 (che penso siano come mi hai detto 113.10/32 quindi 113.3125
in aumento di 0.03 sul (penso ) prezzo di chiusura di 113.21875
insomma da profano non mi sembra poi cosi' disastroso (mi devo convincere ..ho i bund a 114.95 )
o sbaglio qualcosa...oddio a pensarci bene il bund ha chiuso a 115.39 con il 10y a 113.03 quindi a 113.3125 il bund +o- dovrebbe quotare 115.60
azz.... mi sparo
ehm scherzo
dove sbaglio ?
ciao domenico
seguivo i tuoi pensieri e il tuo scritto dopo l'uscita dei dati...
dal grafico di straforo che ho
(ritardato...ecc...ecc.. )mi viene fuori sul 10y un prezzo alle 20.50 (dieci minuti il ritardo )
di 113.10 (che penso siano come mi hai detto 113.10/32 quindi 113.3125
in aumento di 0.03 sul (penso ) prezzo di chiusura di 113.21875
insomma da profano non mi sembra poi cosi' disastroso (mi devo convincere ..ho i bund a 114.95
) o sbaglio qualcosa...oddio a pensarci bene il bund ha chiuso a 115.39 con il 10y a 113.03 quindi a 113.3125 il bund +o- dovrebbe quotare 115.60
azz.... mi sparo
ehm scherzodove sbaglio ?
ciao domenico
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
eh ditro si son letti meglio i commenti della fed , tant'è che non son partiti subito e anzi si son accodati alla sparata dell'euro
domenico purtroppo hanno sfondato le resistenze con volumi, so caxxi
vado a magnà qualcosa aspettando l'eventuale commento del prode ric
domenico purtroppo hanno sfondato le resistenze con volumi, so caxxi
vado a magnà qualcosa
aspettando l'eventuale commento del prode ric 
ditropan
Forumer storico
FED:INFLAZIONE E PRODUTTIVITA' SPINGONO TASSI AL RIALZO/ANSA
(ANSA) - NEW YORK, 21 SET - (di Gianluca Angelini) - La
Federal Reserve non tradisce le attese. Immobile per un anno -
dalla fine di giugno del 2003 alla fine di giugno del 2004 - la
Banca Centrale degli Stati Uniti rispetta in pieno le previsioni
della vigilia e assesta il terzo rialzo consecutivo al costo del
denaro portandolo - in sessanta giorni - a quota 1,75%.
Abbandonando la politica di tagli adottata per favorire la
ripresa economica statunitense all'indomani della recessione
vissuta nel 2001 il Federal Open Market Committee ha alzato di
un ulteriore quarto di punto i tassi di interesse, dopo la
salita dello 0,50% vissuta da giugno ad oggi capace di
cancellare con un colpo di spugna quota 1%: la più bassa degli
ultimi 46 anni.
A spingere la Fed verso l'ennesima stretta - lo scenario
congiunturale mostrato dal Paese nelle ultime settimane
soprattutto per quanto concerne il mercato del lavoro e, in
maniera particolare, l'andamento dei prezzi al consumo.
Sul fronte dell'occupazione, nel mese di agosto, l'economia a
stelle strisce è riuscita a creare 144.000 nuovi impieghi -
più o meno in linea con le attese degli analisti - strappando
il miglior risultato dallo scorso maggio. Numeri giudicati con
favore dalla Fed - malgrado dall'inizio della presidenza Bush il
saldo tra posti persi e creati sia in rosso di 913.000 unità -
la quale, nella nota pubblicata al termine dell'incontro del
Fomc (l'organo che determina la sua politica monetaria) ha
evidenziato come "le condizioni del mercato del lavoro siano
migliorate" seppur in modo modesto e "la crescita della
produzione, dopo un rallentamento nella prima parte dell'anno
dovuto alla crescita sostanziale dei prezzi energetici, abbia
riguadagnato spinta".
Considerazioni da leggere a fianco delle valutazioni
sull'inflazione - l'altro indicatore principe adottato dalla Fed
per le sue decisioni sui tassi - apparsa sotto controllo e,
quindi, sostanzialmente favorevole ad un ritocco verso l'alto
del costo del denaro. "Nonostante la crescita dei prezzi per
l'energia, l'inflazione e le stime sull'inflazione - si legge -
si sono attenuate negli ultimi mesi".
Il Federal Open Market Committee - prosegue il comunicato -
"percepisce come bilanciati, per i prossimi trimestri, i rischi
per il raggiungimento di una crescita sostenibile e la
stabilità dei prezzi". Pertanto "con una inflazione attesa a
livelli relativamente bassi , il Fomc crede che la propria
politica accomodante possa essere rimossa ad un passo misurato
anche se - conclude la nota - la Commissione risponderà ai
cambiamenti nei prospettive economiche in modo da rispettare il
proprio obbligo di mantenere la stabilità dei prezzi".
Nel mese di agosto - come annunciato la scorsa settimana -
questi sono risultati in crescita dello 0,1% (lo stesso 'core
rate', l'indice depurato da alimentari ed energetici è avanzato
dello 0,1%) mentre su base annua, l'indice generale dei prezzi
al consumo è aumentato del 2,7% ad agosto, contro il progresso
del 3% di luglio (sempre su base annua, il 'core rate' è
cresciuto dell' 1,7% contro l'1,8% di luglio) mostrando come il
problema inflazione sia ampiamente sotto i livelli di guardia e
in linea con le riflessioni compiute dal presidente della Fed,
Alan Greenspan, nella sua recente audizione presso la
Commissione Bilancio della Camera, nel corso della quale - due
settimane fa - aveva osservato come "nonostante la salita dei
prezzi per il greggio l'inflazione" sia sostanzialmente piatta.
Archiviato il terzo balzo consecutivo del costo del denaro -
("la Commissione crede che anche dopo questa azione la politica
monetaria rimanga accomodante e, accoppiata ad una crescita
robusta della produzione sufficiente a sostenete l'attività
economica") l'attenzione si sposta - da domani - sulle prossime
mosse della Federal Reserve la quale ha elevato i tassi a sole
sei settimane dalle elezioni presidenziali del prossimo
(ANSA) - NEW YORK, 21 SET - (di Gianluca Angelini) - La
Federal Reserve non tradisce le attese. Immobile per un anno -
dalla fine di giugno del 2003 alla fine di giugno del 2004 - la
Banca Centrale degli Stati Uniti rispetta in pieno le previsioni
della vigilia e assesta il terzo rialzo consecutivo al costo del
denaro portandolo - in sessanta giorni - a quota 1,75%.
Abbandonando la politica di tagli adottata per favorire la
ripresa economica statunitense all'indomani della recessione
vissuta nel 2001 il Federal Open Market Committee ha alzato di
un ulteriore quarto di punto i tassi di interesse, dopo la
salita dello 0,50% vissuta da giugno ad oggi capace di
cancellare con un colpo di spugna quota 1%: la più bassa degli
ultimi 46 anni.
A spingere la Fed verso l'ennesima stretta - lo scenario
congiunturale mostrato dal Paese nelle ultime settimane
soprattutto per quanto concerne il mercato del lavoro e, in
maniera particolare, l'andamento dei prezzi al consumo.
Sul fronte dell'occupazione, nel mese di agosto, l'economia a
stelle strisce è riuscita a creare 144.000 nuovi impieghi -
più o meno in linea con le attese degli analisti - strappando
il miglior risultato dallo scorso maggio. Numeri giudicati con
favore dalla Fed - malgrado dall'inizio della presidenza Bush il
saldo tra posti persi e creati sia in rosso di 913.000 unità -
la quale, nella nota pubblicata al termine dell'incontro del
Fomc (l'organo che determina la sua politica monetaria) ha
evidenziato come "le condizioni del mercato del lavoro siano
migliorate" seppur in modo modesto e "la crescita della
produzione, dopo un rallentamento nella prima parte dell'anno
dovuto alla crescita sostanziale dei prezzi energetici, abbia
riguadagnato spinta".
Considerazioni da leggere a fianco delle valutazioni
sull'inflazione - l'altro indicatore principe adottato dalla Fed
per le sue decisioni sui tassi - apparsa sotto controllo e,
quindi, sostanzialmente favorevole ad un ritocco verso l'alto
del costo del denaro. "Nonostante la crescita dei prezzi per
l'energia, l'inflazione e le stime sull'inflazione - si legge -
si sono attenuate negli ultimi mesi".
Il Federal Open Market Committee - prosegue il comunicato -
"percepisce come bilanciati, per i prossimi trimestri, i rischi
per il raggiungimento di una crescita sostenibile e la
stabilità dei prezzi". Pertanto "con una inflazione attesa a
livelli relativamente bassi , il Fomc crede che la propria
politica accomodante possa essere rimossa ad un passo misurato
anche se - conclude la nota - la Commissione risponderà ai
cambiamenti nei prospettive economiche in modo da rispettare il
proprio obbligo di mantenere la stabilità dei prezzi".
Nel mese di agosto - come annunciato la scorsa settimana -
questi sono risultati in crescita dello 0,1% (lo stesso 'core
rate', l'indice depurato da alimentari ed energetici è avanzato
dello 0,1%) mentre su base annua, l'indice generale dei prezzi
al consumo è aumentato del 2,7% ad agosto, contro il progresso
del 3% di luglio (sempre su base annua, il 'core rate' è
cresciuto dell' 1,7% contro l'1,8% di luglio) mostrando come il
problema inflazione sia ampiamente sotto i livelli di guardia e
in linea con le riflessioni compiute dal presidente della Fed,
Alan Greenspan, nella sua recente audizione presso la
Commissione Bilancio della Camera, nel corso della quale - due
settimane fa - aveva osservato come "nonostante la salita dei
prezzi per il greggio l'inflazione" sia sostanzialmente piatta.
Archiviato il terzo balzo consecutivo del costo del denaro -
("la Commissione crede che anche dopo questa azione la politica
monetaria rimanga accomodante e, accoppiata ad una crescita
robusta della produzione sufficiente a sostenete l'attività
economica") l'attenzione si sposta - da domani - sulle prossime
mosse della Federal Reserve la quale ha elevato i tassi a sole
sei settimane dalle elezioni presidenziali del prossimo
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Scusate ma ho saltato l'appuntamento col nonnetto , il coniglio che ho fatto stasera è uscito meglio delle più rosee previsioni (domani lo posto nel Caffè) e il Nebbiolo è evaporato come neve al sole 
...
I 'mericans dicono che
Long-term Treasuries up in post-Fed rollercoaster
Tue Sep 21, 2004 03:13 PM ET
(Updates reaction, comments, prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices seesawed on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled further hikes were on the way.
In the aftermath, longer-dated debt benefited, with the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) climbing 4/32 in price for a yield of 4.04 percent, just above a five-month low of 4.03 percent hit minutes after the Fed's decision.
Short-term Treasuries, which had rallied recently on hopes that the Fed might hint at a pause in its monetary tightening campaign, caved when the Fed's statement contained no such suggestion.
The U.S. central bank said the economy had regained some traction and it would continue raising rates at a measured pace.
"It was a surprise to the bond market," said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Deutsche Bank. "They expected some olive branch from the Fed that they didn't get."
Fed officials also noted, however, that inflation and inflation expectations had eased, a somewhat soothing assessment to bonds.
Analysts said the market was now eyeing a major chart barrier at 4 percent in the 10-year note yield, at which point many traders fear convexity selling on concerns about mortgage prepayments might kick in.
"It feels to me like there's more shorts that need to be covered and there's some convexity concerns at these levels," said J.P. Marra, managing director of government bond trading at Lehman Brothers.
At the short end, heightened expectations for another interest rate hike in November took their toll. Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 2/32 in price, sending yields to 2.47 percent from 2.43 percent late Monday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 2/32, leaving yields at 3.28 percent percent from 3.27 percent. By contrast, the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rallied 14/32, knocking its yield to 4.84 percent from 4.87 percent.
The disparity between short- and long-term debt only magnified a recent flattening of the yield curve, analysts said. The spread between 10- and two-year note yields hit 157 basis points, its narrowest since September 2001.
Continued strength in crude oil prices (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was seen as broadly supportive of government debt, since they signal potential pressure on future U.S. consumer spending. Oil hit a one-month high at $47.40 a barrel on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the economic data earlier on Tuesday suggested some restraint by consumers with chain store sales falling 1.1 percent week-on-week.
But the housing market remained strong as building starts rose 0.6 percent to 2.0 million in August, confounding forecasts of a fall.
"Housing activity remains strong," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. "The July/August average is above its Q2 level, suggesting that residential construction is still adding to economic growth."
Permits, on the other hand, fell 5.5 percent to 1.952 million perhaps hinting at a slight slackening in building plans going forward.
e che
UPDATE 1-Futures say FOMC fails to seal deal for Nov hike
Tue Sep 21, 2004 03:10 PM ET
CHICAGO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Short-term interest rate futures fell only marginally on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve failed to seal the deal on a November rate increase, dealers said.
"They've left themselves leeway to press forward in raising rates or to take a little bit of a break," said William Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at A. G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.
As expected, the policy-setting body on Tuesday hiked its key short-term interest rates to 1.75 percent from 1.50 percent.
In its post-meeting statement the Federal Open Market Committee was moderately upbeat. It said growth has regained "some traction" after taking a hit from high energy costs, and that the jobs market has improved "modestly."
That knocked down futures prices as dealers guessed that the Fed was more likely to raise interest rates again at subsequent meetings, but losses were limited.
"We would characterize the language as halfway between the June and August views ... the statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said a in note to clients.
In that vein, futures prices (FFX4: Quote, Profile, Research) show almost a 50-50 chance that the central bank will raise rates by another 25 basis points at the Nov. 10 meeting.
The indicated year-end federal funds rate (FFZ4: Quote, Profile, Research) is still just under 2.00 percent, implying that the Fed will skip a rate increase at one of its next two meetings.
"The Fed probably wants to get to 2 percent by year-end, but going much higher is going to be a challenge," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "They may hold at 2 percent for a few meetings into the new year."
...insomma... non è cambiato molto, la FED alza, ma in modo "gentile", quindi siamo in ballo e lo scenario geopolitico + le elezioni in US non aiutano...non so ancora quanto si possa salire, ma non escludo che i tori possano essere ancora forti... vedrem
, il coniglio che ho fatto stasera è uscito meglio delle più rosee previsioni (domani lo posto nel Caffè) e il Nebbiolo è evaporato come neve al sole ...I 'mericans dicono che
Long-term Treasuries up in post-Fed rollercoaster
Tue Sep 21, 2004 03:13 PM ET
(Updates reaction, comments, prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices seesawed on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled further hikes were on the way.
In the aftermath, longer-dated debt benefited, with the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) climbing 4/32 in price for a yield of 4.04 percent, just above a five-month low of 4.03 percent hit minutes after the Fed's decision.
Short-term Treasuries, which had rallied recently on hopes that the Fed might hint at a pause in its monetary tightening campaign, caved when the Fed's statement contained no such suggestion.
The U.S. central bank said the economy had regained some traction and it would continue raising rates at a measured pace.
"It was a surprise to the bond market," said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Deutsche Bank. "They expected some olive branch from the Fed that they didn't get."
Fed officials also noted, however, that inflation and inflation expectations had eased, a somewhat soothing assessment to bonds.
Analysts said the market was now eyeing a major chart barrier at 4 percent in the 10-year note yield, at which point many traders fear convexity selling on concerns about mortgage prepayments might kick in.
"It feels to me like there's more shorts that need to be covered and there's some convexity concerns at these levels," said J.P. Marra, managing director of government bond trading at Lehman Brothers.
At the short end, heightened expectations for another interest rate hike in November took their toll. Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 2/32 in price, sending yields to 2.47 percent from 2.43 percent late Monday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 2/32, leaving yields at 3.28 percent percent from 3.27 percent. By contrast, the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rallied 14/32, knocking its yield to 4.84 percent from 4.87 percent.
The disparity between short- and long-term debt only magnified a recent flattening of the yield curve, analysts said. The spread between 10- and two-year note yields hit 157 basis points, its narrowest since September 2001.
Continued strength in crude oil prices (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was seen as broadly supportive of government debt, since they signal potential pressure on future U.S. consumer spending. Oil hit a one-month high at $47.40 a barrel on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the economic data earlier on Tuesday suggested some restraint by consumers with chain store sales falling 1.1 percent week-on-week.
But the housing market remained strong as building starts rose 0.6 percent to 2.0 million in August, confounding forecasts of a fall.
"Housing activity remains strong," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. "The July/August average is above its Q2 level, suggesting that residential construction is still adding to economic growth."
Permits, on the other hand, fell 5.5 percent to 1.952 million perhaps hinting at a slight slackening in building plans going forward.
e che
UPDATE 1-Futures say FOMC fails to seal deal for Nov hike
Tue Sep 21, 2004 03:10 PM ET
CHICAGO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Short-term interest rate futures fell only marginally on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve failed to seal the deal on a November rate increase, dealers said.
"They've left themselves leeway to press forward in raising rates or to take a little bit of a break," said William Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at A. G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.
As expected, the policy-setting body on Tuesday hiked its key short-term interest rates to 1.75 percent from 1.50 percent.
In its post-meeting statement the Federal Open Market Committee was moderately upbeat. It said growth has regained "some traction" after taking a hit from high energy costs, and that the jobs market has improved "modestly."
That knocked down futures prices as dealers guessed that the Fed was more likely to raise interest rates again at subsequent meetings, but losses were limited.
"We would characterize the language as halfway between the June and August views ... the statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said a in note to clients.
In that vein, futures prices (FFX4: Quote, Profile, Research) show almost a 50-50 chance that the central bank will raise rates by another 25 basis points at the Nov. 10 meeting.
The indicated year-end federal funds rate (FFZ4: Quote, Profile, Research) is still just under 2.00 percent, implying that the Fed will skip a rate increase at one of its next two meetings.
"The Fed probably wants to get to 2 percent by year-end, but going much higher is going to be a challenge," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "They may hold at 2 percent for a few meetings into the new year."
...insomma... non è cambiato molto, la FED alza, ma in modo "gentile", quindi siamo in ballo e lo scenario geopolitico + le elezioni in US non aiutano...non so ancora quanto si possa salire, ma non escludo che i tori possano essere ancora forti... vedrem
gastronomo
Forumer storico
...e da futuresource
DJ Debt Futures Review: Long End Rises, Short End Lower After FOMC
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (DowJones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago initially fell
Tuesday after the Federal Open Market Committee announced it was hiking
interest rates by another 25 basis points and a subtle wording change was
slightly more upbeat about the labor market, traders and analysts said.
However, the market quickly recovered those losses since overall the Fed
statement was roughly what the market majority was expecting. The long end of
the yield curve went on to finish in positive territory, helped by ideas that
any hikes should keep inflation benign, traders said.
Buy stops were hit in the long end of the curve as the futures eventually
turned positive and went through their longtime highs from the last couple of
trading days. But whereas momentum traders jumped on board, bonds may also be
starting to approach levels where selling in the form of profit taking could
occur, contacts said.
The yield curve flattened, with futures in the long end finishing stronger
while futures in the short end weakened for the day.
Dec 10-year notes settled up 2.5 ticks at 113-09.5, while Dec Treasury
bonds gained 12 ticks to 113-01. However, Dec two-year notes lost 1.7 ticks to
105-26.7 and Mar Eurodollars fell 4 basis points to 97.565.
As expected, the Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis
points to 1.75%. The market quickly tumbled, with futures across the yield
curve quickly hitting their lows for the day - 112.22.5 in Dec 10-year notes,
112-03 in Dec Treasury bonds and 97.51 in Mar Eurodollars.
"That's a have-to sell, when the Fed is raising rates," said Beth Malloy,
bond market analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com.
Alex Manzara, vice president at Refco in Chicago, pointed out that the
selling may have been prompted by a subtle change in Fed wording since the
last meeting. Much of the Fed statement was unchanged from August, with
officials continuing to say policy accommodation can be removed at
a "measured" pace, he pointed out.
However, continued Manzara, the Fed statement said labor-market conditions
have improved "modestly."
"Last time, they said the pace of improvement had slowed," he
continued. "So they put a very minor positive spin on the growth story. I
think that was the thing (initially pressuring prices). Maybe some people
expected it to be slightly more dovish of a statement."
The futures wasted little time bouncing right back to the levels where
they were ahead of the statement, however. This occurred since the statement
was roughly what the market had been expecting, said both Malloy and Manzara.
John Person, head financial analyst with Infinity Brokerage Services in
Chicago, said that the rate hike helped curb any fears about inflation
eventually taking hold, thus propelling the bonds higher.
Buy stops were triggered in the Dec bonds as they climbed through the
area around 112-23, the highs from Friday and Monday, to 112-25, said
Person. They peaked at 113-05, their strongest level since March.
But while some buying emerged in bonds from momentum-based traders, the
futures nevertheless could be in danger of running into a stumbling block,
said Person.
"I think the area from 113 up to 113 and one-half is going to be met with
some strong selling," he said. Later, he added, profit targets for a lot of
traders appear to be around 113-16 to 113-20.
Dec 10-year notes got as high as 113-12.5, taking out Friday's 113-08.5
high and also hitting their highest level since March.
However, while nearby Eurodollars recovered from their lows, they
nevertheless remained weaker on a day that the yield curve flattened, said
Manzara.
"The Fed still said they're in a tightening mode and are going to remove
accommodation at a measured pace. But the market doesn't really feel as if the
economy is gaining a lot of traction, and I think that's the main reason for a
flattening trade."
Going into the FOMC meeting, futures across the yield curve had a
slightly softer tone. Contacts at the time blamed this on long liquidation
ahead of the meeting after some of the recent strength in the market, as well
as a strong housing starts report Tuesday morning. Housing starts rose 0.6% to
an annualized rate of 2 million units during August, topping forecasts that
had centered around 1.95 million.
No major reports are scheduled for Wednesday. On Thursday, Leading
Economic Indicators and weekly jobless claims are on the docket.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
DJ Debt Futures Review: Long End Rises, Short End Lower After FOMC
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (DowJones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago initially fell
Tuesday after the Federal Open Market Committee announced it was hiking
interest rates by another 25 basis points and a subtle wording change was
slightly more upbeat about the labor market, traders and analysts said.
However, the market quickly recovered those losses since overall the Fed
statement was roughly what the market majority was expecting. The long end of
the yield curve went on to finish in positive territory, helped by ideas that
any hikes should keep inflation benign, traders said.
Buy stops were hit in the long end of the curve as the futures eventually
turned positive and went through their longtime highs from the last couple of
trading days. But whereas momentum traders jumped on board, bonds may also be
starting to approach levels where selling in the form of profit taking could
occur, contacts said.
The yield curve flattened, with futures in the long end finishing stronger
while futures in the short end weakened for the day.
Dec 10-year notes settled up 2.5 ticks at 113-09.5, while Dec Treasury
bonds gained 12 ticks to 113-01. However, Dec two-year notes lost 1.7 ticks to
105-26.7 and Mar Eurodollars fell 4 basis points to 97.565.
As expected, the Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis
points to 1.75%. The market quickly tumbled, with futures across the yield
curve quickly hitting their lows for the day - 112.22.5 in Dec 10-year notes,
112-03 in Dec Treasury bonds and 97.51 in Mar Eurodollars.
"That's a have-to sell, when the Fed is raising rates," said Beth Malloy,
bond market analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com.
Alex Manzara, vice president at Refco in Chicago, pointed out that the
selling may have been prompted by a subtle change in Fed wording since the
last meeting. Much of the Fed statement was unchanged from August, with
officials continuing to say policy accommodation can be removed at
a "measured" pace, he pointed out.
However, continued Manzara, the Fed statement said labor-market conditions
have improved "modestly."
"Last time, they said the pace of improvement had slowed," he
continued. "So they put a very minor positive spin on the growth story. I
think that was the thing (initially pressuring prices). Maybe some people
expected it to be slightly more dovish of a statement."
The futures wasted little time bouncing right back to the levels where
they were ahead of the statement, however. This occurred since the statement
was roughly what the market had been expecting, said both Malloy and Manzara.
John Person, head financial analyst with Infinity Brokerage Services in
Chicago, said that the rate hike helped curb any fears about inflation
eventually taking hold, thus propelling the bonds higher.
Buy stops were triggered in the Dec bonds as they climbed through the
area around 112-23, the highs from Friday and Monday, to 112-25, said
Person. They peaked at 113-05, their strongest level since March.
But while some buying emerged in bonds from momentum-based traders, the
futures nevertheless could be in danger of running into a stumbling block,
said Person.
"I think the area from 113 up to 113 and one-half is going to be met with
some strong selling," he said. Later, he added, profit targets for a lot of
traders appear to be around 113-16 to 113-20.
Dec 10-year notes got as high as 113-12.5, taking out Friday's 113-08.5
high and also hitting their highest level since March.
However, while nearby Eurodollars recovered from their lows, they
nevertheless remained weaker on a day that the yield curve flattened, said
Manzara.
"The Fed still said they're in a tightening mode and are going to remove
accommodation at a measured pace. But the market doesn't really feel as if the
economy is gaining a lot of traction, and I think that's the main reason for a
flattening trade."
Going into the FOMC meeting, futures across the yield curve had a
slightly softer tone. Contacts at the time blamed this on long liquidation
ahead of the meeting after some of the recent strength in the market, as well
as a strong housing starts report Tuesday morning. Housing starts rose 0.6% to
an annualized rate of 2 million units during August, topping forecasts that
had centered around 1.95 million.
No major reports are scheduled for Wednesday. On Thursday, Leading
Economic Indicators and weekly jobless claims are on the docket.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
