Fleursdumal
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gastronomo ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:
Hai brutti presagi?
sempre quando trattasi di T-Bond
BUND, T-BRONX, T-NOTE ... e compagnia bella (V.M. 78 Anni)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
sempre quando trattasi di T-Bond
Fleursdumal
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la sculacciata data alla curva dei rendimenti
Fleursdumal
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Fleursdumal
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andiamo al terzo test della fascia 110,25-375
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Treasuries rise, helped by lower stocks, sentiment
Tue Mar 29, 2005 03:41 PM ET
(Adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt climbed on Tuesday as falling stock markets and ebbing consumer confidence lent support to a largely technical bounce.
The session's gains offset Monday's drop, leaving bonds flat so far this week as investors await more conclusive data on jobs and inflation, due on Thursday and Friday.
The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 13/32 in price for a yield of 4.59 percent, down from 4.65 percent on Monday.
Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) also recovered a bit, adding 2/32 in price for a yield of 3.85 percent, compared with 3.88 percent. The Treasury Department is scheduled to auction $24 billion in new short-term notes on Wednesday.
But traders said the market would not make any sharp moves until at least Thursday, with the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index -- the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation.
The current range is bound to persist until investors get a better sense of the U.S. inflation outlook, which in turn will determine how aggressive the Fed might need to be in raising interest rates. Some analysts believe the market has remained too complacent for too long.
"In the past month, the complete lack of regard for inflation risk has given way to rampant inflation fear," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial. Given that transition, he predicted there was further room for the long-end of the Treasury curve to rally.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was already making headway, rising 21/32 on Tuesday to yield 4.85 percent. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 7/32 to yield 4.29 percent.
Bonds were caught off guard last week when the central bank's statement signaled policy-makers were more anxious about price gains that previously thought. Many interpreted the inflation warning as a thinly veiled hint that more substantial half-percentage-point rate increases might be in the cards.
In light of such concerns, short-term rate futures were showing a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis-point move at its May 3 meeting instead of its recent quarter percentage point hikes.
"Traders are taking out insurance against a more aggressive Fed pace, but the best guess is still for successive 25 basis point hikes through the summer, at least until data show otherwise," said strategists at Action Economics.
JPMorgan's weekly survey of clients showed short positions declined only slightly, to 54 percent of respondents from 56 percent, while only 7 percent held long positions in Treasuries.
Tuesday's data on consumer confidence and chain store sales offered little insight into the outlook for monetary policy.
The Conference Board's gauge of sentiment slipped to 102.4 in March, its lowest since November, as respondents fretted about high gasoline prices and gave a mixed reading on the jobs market.
Consumers also said they felt gloomier about the labor market, despite signs of increased hiring in recent government data. The proportion of consumers in The Conference Board survey saying jobs were "hard to get" rose to 23.8 percent from 22.4 percent.
As consumers felt less secure, they also appeared to be spending less. Two weekly report on chain store sales both showed a pullback in the latest period.
Tue Mar 29, 2005 03:41 PM ET
(Adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt climbed on Tuesday as falling stock markets and ebbing consumer confidence lent support to a largely technical bounce.
The session's gains offset Monday's drop, leaving bonds flat so far this week as investors await more conclusive data on jobs and inflation, due on Thursday and Friday.
The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 13/32 in price for a yield of 4.59 percent, down from 4.65 percent on Monday.
Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) also recovered a bit, adding 2/32 in price for a yield of 3.85 percent, compared with 3.88 percent. The Treasury Department is scheduled to auction $24 billion in new short-term notes on Wednesday.
But traders said the market would not make any sharp moves until at least Thursday, with the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index -- the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation.
The current range is bound to persist until investors get a better sense of the U.S. inflation outlook, which in turn will determine how aggressive the Fed might need to be in raising interest rates. Some analysts believe the market has remained too complacent for too long.
"In the past month, the complete lack of regard for inflation risk has given way to rampant inflation fear," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial. Given that transition, he predicted there was further room for the long-end of the Treasury curve to rally.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was already making headway, rising 21/32 on Tuesday to yield 4.85 percent. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 7/32 to yield 4.29 percent.
Bonds were caught off guard last week when the central bank's statement signaled policy-makers were more anxious about price gains that previously thought. Many interpreted the inflation warning as a thinly veiled hint that more substantial half-percentage-point rate increases might be in the cards.
In light of such concerns, short-term rate futures were showing a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis-point move at its May 3 meeting instead of its recent quarter percentage point hikes.
"Traders are taking out insurance against a more aggressive Fed pace, but the best guess is still for successive 25 basis point hikes through the summer, at least until data show otherwise," said strategists at Action Economics.
JPMorgan's weekly survey of clients showed short positions declined only slightly, to 54 percent of respondents from 56 percent, while only 7 percent held long positions in Treasuries.
Tuesday's data on consumer confidence and chain store sales offered little insight into the outlook for monetary policy.
The Conference Board's gauge of sentiment slipped to 102.4 in March, its lowest since November, as respondents fretted about high gasoline prices and gave a mixed reading on the jobs market.
Consumers also said they felt gloomier about the labor market, despite signs of increased hiring in recent government data. The proportion of consumers in The Conference Board survey saying jobs were "hard to get" rose to 23.8 percent from 22.4 percent.
As consumers felt less secure, they also appeared to be spending less. Two weekly report on chain store sales both showed a pullback in the latest period.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti 
,
livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 118.45
r2 118.12
r1 117.99
pivot 117.79
s1 117.66
s2 117.46
s3 117.13
Oggi aste italiane di carta a 3+10 anni + cct e 7bn di carta tedesca a 5 anni - vediamo se si scende ...
,livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 118.45
r2 118.12
r1 117.99
pivot 117.79
s1 117.66
s2 117.46
s3 117.13
Oggi aste italiane di carta a 3+10 anni + cct e 7bn di carta tedesca a 5 anni - vediamo se si scende
...
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Roba da matti il bund...buttano fuori 15 bn di carta e quello sale con uno sputo di lotti...vado al mercato a fare la spesa che già mi girano
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