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Derivative auction sees 208,700 non-farm US jobs
Fri Apr 1, 2005 08:13 AM ET
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Investors in an economic derivative auction on Friday hedged against the risk of a slightly weaker-than-expected March U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
The auction showed an implied market forecast of a 208,700 rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls, down from 262,000 in February and below the median forecast of 220,000 by economists in a Reuters poll. The first leg of the auction on Thursday produced an implied forecast of 211,000.
Economist forecasts ranged from 180,000 to 275,000, with most predictions in the 200,000 to 235,000 range.
But players in the economic auction prepared for a broader range of possible outcomes. Investors put a 50 percent probability of payrolls rising by 200,000 or less, and a 23.6 percent probability of 275,000 or more.
The hedging against a lower-than-expected number is particularly interesting given that the March Chicago Purchasing Management index, released on Thursday, reported employment in the region grew at its fastest rate since 1983.
The U.S. Labor Department will release payroll numbers at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).
Economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have a good history of showing how markets are positioned ahead of important economic figures, compared with the forecasts of economists.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Fri Apr 1, 2005 08:13 AM ET
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Investors in an economic derivative auction on Friday hedged against the risk of a slightly weaker-than-expected March U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
The auction showed an implied market forecast of a 208,700 rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls, down from 262,000 in February and below the median forecast of 220,000 by economists in a Reuters poll. The first leg of the auction on Thursday produced an implied forecast of 211,000.
Economist forecasts ranged from 180,000 to 275,000, with most predictions in the 200,000 to 235,000 range.
But players in the economic auction prepared for a broader range of possible outcomes. Investors put a 50 percent probability of payrolls rising by 200,000 or less, and a 23.6 percent probability of 275,000 or more.
The hedging against a lower-than-expected number is particularly interesting given that the March Chicago Purchasing Management index, released on Thursday, reported employment in the region grew at its fastest rate since 1983.
The U.S. Labor Department will release payroll numbers at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).
Economic derivatives, offered by Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and interdealer broker ICAP, have a good history of showing how markets are positioned ahead of important economic figures, compared with the forecasts of economists.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
- per giunta IW si è impallata nel senso che il grafo dà dei livelli, il book ne dà altri, quindi non so dove kaiser è il mercato
