fo64 ha scritto:
Un saluto a tutta la banda è doveroso, visto che quel busone di Gipa è passato a lasciare la sua traccia nelle news odierne in piazza affari
Tutto bene?
busone sarà Fleu
German July Factory Orders Drop Most in 16 Years (Update3)
By Simone Meier
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- German manufacturing orders dropped the most in at least 16 years in July after a decline in sales of ships, trains and airplanes.
Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 7.1 percent from June, when they gained 5.1 percent, the Economy and Technology Ministry in Berlin said today. That's the biggest drop since at least September 1991, according to Bloomberg data. Economists expected a decline of 2.5 percent, according to the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
German growth is cooling from the fastest pace since the turn of the decade last year as a gain in the euro makes exports less competitive abroad and borrowing costs at a six-year high restrain lending. European manufacturing expanded at the weakest pace in 19 months in August. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has already indicated the bank may leave interest rates unchanged today to assess the impact of credit-market turbulence.
``We'll see some negative effects on investments due to the recent market turmoil,'' said Matthias Rubisch, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``Overall, the orders trend is still up even if they're not showing the same dynamism as last year.''
From a year earlier, orders gained 9.8 percent. Foreign orders fell 12 percent in July from the previous month, led by a 22 percent drop in demand within the 13-member euro region economy, today's report showed. Euro-area orders for investment goods declined 33 percent after rising 40 percent in June.
`Large Swings'
The ``large swings'' were influenced by the development in big ticket orders, the ministry said today. Orders increased 2.2 percent in July excluding demand for goods such as for ships, trains and vehicles, according to the release.
``Monthly data on manufacturing orders are volatile, as big- ticket items can lead to heavy distortions,'' said Martin Lueck, an economist at UBS AG in Frankfurt. ``The peak of cyclical momentum is probably behind us, but the economy is still growing at a satisfactory pace that's above trend.''
Europe's economy expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in the second quarter as business investment fell for the first time since 2002, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said Sept. 4. Growth may cool to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter from an estimated 0.6 percent in the current three- month period, the European Commission said that day.
Waning Confidence
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's largest luxury carmaker, last month reported a bigger decline in second-quarter profit than analysts had estimated because of the euro's strength.
A 3.4 percent gain in the euro against the dollar this year is weighing on exports as the U.S. economy loses momentum. Americans' confidence this month declined the most in two years, backing the Federal Reserve's concerns that risks to growth in the world's largest economy have ``increased appreciably.''
European companies are also dealing with a rout in the U.S. subprime mortgage market which is pushing up the cost of credit. Turmoil worsened on Aug. 9 after some European banks acknowledged their vulnerability to rising defaults on American subprime mortgages, aimed at borrowers with a poor credit history.
German business confidence fell to a 10-month low in August and investor optimism declined more than economists forecast. European manufacturing orders grew at the slowest pace since November 2005 last month on waning demand at home and abroad.
German companies are counting on stronger consumer demand at home after unemployment declined for a 19th month in August. German retail sales rose for the first time in four months in August, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed Aug. 30.
ECB Rates
Booming Asian demand is also helping shore up earnings. DaimlerChrysler AG, the world's second-largest maker of luxury cars, said Sept. 4 it expects rising demand in markets including India, China and Brazil this year.
MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker, is investing 300 million euros ($408 million) through the end of 2009 to expand its European dealership network on rising demand. The Munich-based company is also targeting increased sales in Russia and eastern Europe as the region's economies boom.
``Looking ahead, we should expect a rebound in manufacturing order demand,'' said Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley & Co. in London. Business confidence indicators point to ``a gradual moderation in order books, not a plunge.''
Economists expect the ECB to leave its main interest rate unchanged. Just 12 out of 56 surveyed by Bloomberg News predict a quarter-point increase when the 19-member governing council meets. The Frankfurt-based ECB will announce its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at
[email protected]
Last Updated: September 6, 2007 07:30 EDT