Bund, TBond and the funny stagflation...(VM118)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Il minimo a 126 del wtic segnala il ivello chiave della fase attuale cosi come i recenti massi mi assoluti, una discesa sotto 126 comprometterebbe la forza del trend mentre il superamento dei massimi indicherebbe nuova forza....
The recent gravity defying surge in Crude Oil has attracted much attention
and generated heated debate across the globe. A 99% annual appreciation in
prices of world's principal source of fuel is bound to affect all countries
and their inhabitants in a big way. The situation is even worse at MCX,
India, where a depreciating rupee (against dollar) has further added
momentum to the rally as a stronger dollar directly translates to costlier
imports (read Crude Oil). In my previous posts in the same blog and numerous
articles, presentations, lectures and private discussions, I had reiterated
that the era of "Easy/Cheap" oil is over. However, the way the Crude Oil is
scaling newer highs each day has put analysts across the world in a fix. It
is not the $130 or $135 level which is alarming us but the speed with which
these milestones are being achieved.
Market is equally divided between those who are seeing further upside and
between those who are expecting a substantial correction in near term.
The reasons for a deeper correction/profit booking in Crude Oil are
numerous.
There are many reasons to assume that market is overreacting to Oil bullish
factors. What is being ignored is the fact that Commodity business is a
cyclical one. Higher Crude Oil prices (or any other commodity) are self
defeating as it directly translates into a reduction in demand as the
consumers start cutting down on consumption or switches to cheaper
alternative. Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs who has to his credit many
doomsday prophecies (including the recent Crude at $ 200 one) himself drives
in a Hybrid car.
Many banks and investment firms have come out to defend the rise in oil
prices, saying that it is based on fundamentals and that prices could rise
much further. Analysts like Arjun Murti, Pickens, Guppy etc. and market
movers like Goldman Sachs, UBS are constantly raising the projection levels
in prices, thus sending the prices over the roof. While they go on saying
this and prices continues to move upward, open interest in crude futures
contracts has been moving steadily downward since a high of 1.58 million
last July to 1.36 million now.
But aren't there fundamental reasons for this rise in oil prices? In some
ways yes, demand from China and India is increasing, but at a slower pace
than oil has gone up. The chief market strategist for one of the world's
leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of J.P. Morgan Funds, recently
admitted something telling to the Washington Post, "One of the things I
think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil
consumption is not that strong." One of the stories used to support the oil
futures speculators is the allegation that China 's oil import thirst is
exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand
equilibrium. The facts do not support the China demand thesis however. The
US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its most recent
monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report, concluded that US oil demand is
expected to decline by 190,000 b/d in 2008. That is mainly owing to the
deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from
exploding, is expected to rise this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That
is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year
China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was
around 7 million b/d total. The US , by contrast, consumes around 20.7
million b/d. That means the key oil consuming nation, the USA, is
experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a
third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand
compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels,
less than half of a percent of the total demand. The Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has its 2008 global oil demand growth
forecast unchanged at 1.2 mm bpd, as slowing economic growth in the
industrialised world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing
nations. OPEC predicts global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd
-- largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China , the
Middle East , India , and Latin America -- is forecast to be stronger but
the EU and North American demand will be lower.
Not only is there no supply crisis to justify such a price bubble. There are
several giant new oil fields due to begin production over the course of 2008
to further add to supply.
The world's single largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia is finalizing plans to
boost drilling activity by a third and increase investments by 40 %. Saudi
Aramco's plan, which runs from 2009 to 2013, is expected to be approved by
the company's board and the Oil Ministry this month. The Kingdom is in the
midst of a $ 50 billion oil production expansion plan to meet growing demand
in Asia and other emerging markets. The Kingdom is expected to boost its
pumping capacity to a total of 12.5 mm bpd by next year, up about 11 % from
current capacity of 11.3 mm bpd. In April this year Saudi Arabia 's
Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to
world oil supply of high grade Arabian Light crude. As well, another Saudi
expansion project, the Khurais oilfield development, is the largest of Saudi
Aramco projects that will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields
from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add
another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia
's export capacity.
Brazil 's Petrobras is in the early phase of exploiting what it estimates
are newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as
great or greater than the North Sea . Petrobras, says the new ultra-deep
Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light
crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the
world's "top 10" oil producers, between those of Nigeria and those of
Venezuela .
In the United States, aside from rumors that the big oil companies have been
deliberately sitting on vast new reserves in Alaska for fear that the prices
of recent years would plunge on over-supply, the US Geological Survey (USGS)
recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area
called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and
south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of
oil in the Bakken. These are just several confirmations of large new oil
reserves to be exploited. Iraq , where the Anglo-American Big Four oil
majors are salivating to get their hands on the unexplored fields, is
believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia . Much of the
world has yet to be explored for oil. At prices above $60 a barrel huge new
potentials become economic. The major problem faced by Big Oil is not
finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to
maintain present exorbitant prices. Here they have some help from Wall
Street banks and the two major oil trade exchanges—NYMEX and
London-Atlanta's ICE and ICE Futures.
Moreover, the argument that Crude Oil is tracking a weaker dollar doesn't
hold true anymore. Euro has corrected sharply from its high of 1.6018
against the dollar. Signs of slowdown are being identified in Eurozone as
well and ECB's Trichet has come under pressure to review his tight monetary
policy. On the other hand recently released US economic indicators and have
been largely mixed and point towards relative stabilization of Housing and
labor market. Moreover with commodity prices going over the roof, US Federal
Reserve may soon return to the policy of Inflation targeting. Interest-rate
futures show the Federal Reserve may start to raise U.S. borrowing costs by
the end of the year as the economy recovers and inflation accelerates.
Earlier, seven interest-rate cuts by the Fed since September sent the dollar
to an all-time low against the euro in April, boosting gold and other
commodities.
Moreover, Crude Oil being a political (and strategic) commodity, we may very
well see intervention from US on the issue of high prices. Entire global
economy, especially that of US is under strong pressure due to Crude Oil
induced inflation. Recently, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly
approved legislation allowing the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for
limiting oil supplies and working together to set crude price. Already,
President Bush in his recent trip to Gulf has pressurised Saudi Arabia, the
most influential OPEC member to increase the Crude Oil production by 300,000
million barrels per day. Also, if recent indications are to be believed,
U.S. Government is soon expected to force regulators to raise margin
requirements under current market conditions, specifically with respect to
the oil markets. This could have a dramatic downward effect on prices.
(Remember silver and the Hunt Brothers in 1980.) In April 2008, U.S. Sen.
Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, told Congress, "There is an orgy of
speculation in futures markets. This is a 24-hour casino with unbelievable
speculation." He and others in Congress have been raising the idea of
changing margin requirements that traders must pay up front in order to
engage in oil speculation. Dorgan said stock speculation requires a 50%
margin, but commodities like oil demand a much lower threshold, just 5% or
7%.
No doubt, Crude Oil, being in limited supply, is fundamentally strongest
commodity around. But the way the recent spike has pushed the prices of the
liquid gold has raised many an eyebrow and in coming days we may expect a
substantial correction. Though a break below $100 is certainly not
anticipated and too far fetched, a correction to the tune of $ 20 from
current levels cannot be ruled out. However, traders should refrain from
taking a short position arbitrarily and should wait for the confirming
trend. Like any other market analysts, I too have faith in the old adage
"Market is always right" and "Trend is your friend".
--
Salman Khan
The recent gravity defying surge in Crude Oil has attracted much attention
and generated heated debate across the globe. A 99% annual appreciation in
prices of world's principal source of fuel is bound to affect all countries
and their inhabitants in a big way. The situation is even worse at MCX,
India, where a depreciating rupee (against dollar) has further added
momentum to the rally as a stronger dollar directly translates to costlier
imports (read Crude Oil). In my previous posts in the same blog and numerous
articles, presentations, lectures and private discussions, I had reiterated
that the era of "Easy/Cheap" oil is over. However, the way the Crude Oil is
scaling newer highs each day has put analysts across the world in a fix. It
is not the $130 or $135 level which is alarming us but the speed with which
these milestones are being achieved.
Market is equally divided between those who are seeing further upside and
between those who are expecting a substantial correction in near term.
The reasons for a deeper correction/profit booking in Crude Oil are
numerous.
There are many reasons to assume that market is overreacting to Oil bullish
factors. What is being ignored is the fact that Commodity business is a
cyclical one. Higher Crude Oil prices (or any other commodity) are self
defeating as it directly translates into a reduction in demand as the
consumers start cutting down on consumption or switches to cheaper
alternative. Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs who has to his credit many
doomsday prophecies (including the recent Crude at $ 200 one) himself drives
in a Hybrid car.
Many banks and investment firms have come out to defend the rise in oil
prices, saying that it is based on fundamentals and that prices could rise
much further. Analysts like Arjun Murti, Pickens, Guppy etc. and market
movers like Goldman Sachs, UBS are constantly raising the projection levels
in prices, thus sending the prices over the roof. While they go on saying
this and prices continues to move upward, open interest in crude futures
contracts has been moving steadily downward since a high of 1.58 million
last July to 1.36 million now.
But aren't there fundamental reasons for this rise in oil prices? In some
ways yes, demand from China and India is increasing, but at a slower pace
than oil has gone up. The chief market strategist for one of the world's
leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of J.P. Morgan Funds, recently
admitted something telling to the Washington Post, "One of the things I
think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil
consumption is not that strong." One of the stories used to support the oil
futures speculators is the allegation that China 's oil import thirst is
exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand
equilibrium. The facts do not support the China demand thesis however. The
US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its most recent
monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report, concluded that US oil demand is
expected to decline by 190,000 b/d in 2008. That is mainly owing to the
deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from
exploding, is expected to rise this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That
is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year
China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was
around 7 million b/d total. The US , by contrast, consumes around 20.7
million b/d. That means the key oil consuming nation, the USA, is
experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a
third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand
compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels,
less than half of a percent of the total demand. The Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has its 2008 global oil demand growth
forecast unchanged at 1.2 mm bpd, as slowing economic growth in the
industrialised world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing
nations. OPEC predicts global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd
-- largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China , the
Middle East , India , and Latin America -- is forecast to be stronger but
the EU and North American demand will be lower.
Not only is there no supply crisis to justify such a price bubble. There are
several giant new oil fields due to begin production over the course of 2008
to further add to supply.
The world's single largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia is finalizing plans to
boost drilling activity by a third and increase investments by 40 %. Saudi
Aramco's plan, which runs from 2009 to 2013, is expected to be approved by
the company's board and the Oil Ministry this month. The Kingdom is in the
midst of a $ 50 billion oil production expansion plan to meet growing demand
in Asia and other emerging markets. The Kingdom is expected to boost its
pumping capacity to a total of 12.5 mm bpd by next year, up about 11 % from
current capacity of 11.3 mm bpd. In April this year Saudi Arabia 's
Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to
world oil supply of high grade Arabian Light crude. As well, another Saudi
expansion project, the Khurais oilfield development, is the largest of Saudi
Aramco projects that will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields
from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add
another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia
's export capacity.
Brazil 's Petrobras is in the early phase of exploiting what it estimates
are newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as
great or greater than the North Sea . Petrobras, says the new ultra-deep
Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light
crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the
world's "top 10" oil producers, between those of Nigeria and those of
Venezuela .
In the United States, aside from rumors that the big oil companies have been
deliberately sitting on vast new reserves in Alaska for fear that the prices
of recent years would plunge on over-supply, the US Geological Survey (USGS)
recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area
called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and
south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of
oil in the Bakken. These are just several confirmations of large new oil
reserves to be exploited. Iraq , where the Anglo-American Big Four oil
majors are salivating to get their hands on the unexplored fields, is
believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia . Much of the
world has yet to be explored for oil. At prices above $60 a barrel huge new
potentials become economic. The major problem faced by Big Oil is not
finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to
maintain present exorbitant prices. Here they have some help from Wall
Street banks and the two major oil trade exchanges—NYMEX and
London-Atlanta's ICE and ICE Futures.
Moreover, the argument that Crude Oil is tracking a weaker dollar doesn't
hold true anymore. Euro has corrected sharply from its high of 1.6018
against the dollar. Signs of slowdown are being identified in Eurozone as
well and ECB's Trichet has come under pressure to review his tight monetary
policy. On the other hand recently released US economic indicators and have
been largely mixed and point towards relative stabilization of Housing and
labor market. Moreover with commodity prices going over the roof, US Federal
Reserve may soon return to the policy of Inflation targeting. Interest-rate
futures show the Federal Reserve may start to raise U.S. borrowing costs by
the end of the year as the economy recovers and inflation accelerates.
Earlier, seven interest-rate cuts by the Fed since September sent the dollar
to an all-time low against the euro in April, boosting gold and other
commodities.
Moreover, Crude Oil being a political (and strategic) commodity, we may very
well see intervention from US on the issue of high prices. Entire global
economy, especially that of US is under strong pressure due to Crude Oil
induced inflation. Recently, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly
approved legislation allowing the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for
limiting oil supplies and working together to set crude price. Already,
President Bush in his recent trip to Gulf has pressurised Saudi Arabia, the
most influential OPEC member to increase the Crude Oil production by 300,000
million barrels per day. Also, if recent indications are to be believed,
U.S. Government is soon expected to force regulators to raise margin
requirements under current market conditions, specifically with respect to
the oil markets. This could have a dramatic downward effect on prices.
(Remember silver and the Hunt Brothers in 1980.) In April 2008, U.S. Sen.
Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, told Congress, "There is an orgy of
speculation in futures markets. This is a 24-hour casino with unbelievable
speculation." He and others in Congress have been raising the idea of
changing margin requirements that traders must pay up front in order to
engage in oil speculation. Dorgan said stock speculation requires a 50%
margin, but commodities like oil demand a much lower threshold, just 5% or
7%.
No doubt, Crude Oil, being in limited supply, is fundamentally strongest
commodity around. But the way the recent spike has pushed the prices of the
liquid gold has raised many an eyebrow and in coming days we may expect a
substantial correction. Though a break below $100 is certainly not
anticipated and too far fetched, a correction to the tune of $ 20 from
current levels cannot be ruled out. However, traders should refrain from
taking a short position arbitrarily and should wait for the confirming
trend. Like any other market analysts, I too have faith in the old adage
"Market is always right" and "Trend is your friend".
--
Salman Khan
posizione in sofferenza a -240 euri 
the genius 
dan24
Forumer storico
i Japan festeggiano con un bel 3% la nuova debolezza dello yen sia contro usd che soprattutto (stranoooo) contro eura...
io continuo ad avere todo segnali short su tutti gli indici su base daily e questa sarebbe solo un pullback...
moo vediamo perchè lo stox è già su area pullback...3770/3765...
fib sarebbe area 33060/33080
io continuo ad avere todo segnali short su tutti gli indici su base daily e questa sarebbe solo un pullback...
moo vediamo perchè lo stox è già su area pullback...3770/3765...fib sarebbe area 33060/33080
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