x f4f
The Weekly Report For September 7th - September 11th, 2009
Commentary: It was an interesting week to say the least. Monday, the markets opened with a gap lower, and there was a sharp follow-through lower on Tuesday. Once again the markets threatened to begin a larger correction, but by the end of the week they had regained the majority of their losses. The end result was a fairly tame late-summer week, although there are more cracks appearing in the health of the recent rally.
The chart for the S&P 500 SPDRS (NYSE:SPY) ETF reveals how the markets broke under the small trading range they established after the recent move to new highs. While SPY remains above a rising 50-day moving average, it remains under the recent highs, and could be in the process of developing a head-and-shoulders top. It's too early too call this pattern, but it's possible that SPY is in the process of forming the right shoulder. The lows formed this week will need to be watched as a possible turning point for the markets on the intermediate term time frame. [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Diamonds Trust Series 1 (NYSE:DIA) ETF, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, shows a similar pattern. DIA broke under last week's range, but has held above the last base and the most recent low. Despite the recent strength, there are many divergences appearing on the charts, and the down day this week occurred with a sharp increase in volume.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) ETF chart is one of the more volatile averages; it shows the recent selling more clearly, with the big red bars starting from Friday of last week. IWM held above the prior lows, and managed to recover most of the week's losses. However, IWM also remains well below the prior high and is showing some negative divergences as well.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Powershares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQQ) is also showing more of the same. There was a sharp drop beginning last week, which carried over to mid-week; however, the Thursday and Friday session managed to recover a good portion of the decline. The recent high is a level to watch for renewed strength.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
There is an interesting pattern developing in the markets. It's possible that the markets are setting up for a new trading range. The recent high was met with quick and urgent selling, which may have established an intermediate term top, but the recent lows have held well above the prior base established from May through July. The key levels to watch overall are the recent highs or a move back into the prior base. The markets remain above rising moving averages so the benefit of the doubt still favors higher prices, but signs are starting to appear that the rally is losing steam.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis. [/FONT]