f4f
翠鸟科
cià rekkie
passo per un saluto veloce, compiuto il trasloco sono assediato dai pacchi
almeno la linea c'è
non mi ricordo più cos'è un minifutsymib o un nasdacco
un vaadarviail q e ci risentiamo tra un pò
ci conto
benturnàt fleu
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
ci conto
benturnàt fleu
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Un saluto al fleu..
e un italiano tosto nel mondo hedge:
Pellegrini 80% Return Proves Paulson Protege No Fluke at Fund - Bloomberg.com
e un italiano tosto nel mondo hedge:
Pellegrini 80% Return Proves Paulson Protege No Fluke at Fund - Bloomberg.com
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
10 gg e la bbbbanda ritorna
più possente e canuta che mai
io non sono canuto.. sono metallizzato!!!
Allegati
feliceanima
Forumer attivo
Madiba
Forumer storico
Buon pomeriggio
October 02
weekend update
REVIEW
Disappointing economic reports pressure market for most of the week. Indeed, the recovery may not be around the corner as most were led to believe. But the news wasn't all negative. Case-Shiller home prices rose again, the ADP index improved, as did the Q2 GDP revision. Personal income, consumer spending, construction spending and pending home sales all improved too. However, when consumer confidence was reported lower on tuesday the SPX dropped 12 points in two hours. On wednesday, Chicago PMI was reported lower and the SPX lost 17 points in 15 minutes. Then on thursday after a worsening jobless claims was reported before the open, ISM was reported lower at 10AM and the SPX dropped 18 points in two hours. Finally on friday non-farm payrolls were reported worsening before the open. The market sold off pre-market and gapped down at the open, losing 9 points in the first few minutes. Auto sales tumbled for the month of Sept. and factory orders turned negative too. For the week the SPX/DOW was -1.8%, and the NDX/NAZ was -2.0%. The market had opened the week at SPX 1044, and rallied to 1070 before the bad news starting hitting the wires. The Asian market averaged a 2.0% decline, Europe was -1.9%, and the Commodity equities were mixed. Bonds rose 1.1%, Crude rallied 5.6%, Gold added 1.2%, and the USD (+0.4%) gained against the EUR and JPY.
LONG TERM: bear market
After the bull market topped in Oct 2007 at SPX 1576, the market declined for 17 months to SPX 667 losing 58% of its value. We counted all the waves down and noticed a potential completed wave pattern right near the lows. The 17 month decline took the form of a zigzag (5-3-5), and we labeled the low Primary wave A of an ABC Primary wave bear market. Using historical references we then projected that Primary wave B was underway and projected a 50% retracement of the entire 909 point decline. This projected that Primary wave B could reach SPX 1122 in about five months. The projection appeared outrageous at the time, as most were solidly in the bear camp. Now, about seven months later, and after a 45% retracement, the pendulum has swung the other way. Most are now solidly in the bull camp, and we're observing another potential completed wave pattern. Only this one is a top, and the potential end of the bear market counter rally Primary wave B. We must also state that we observed a completed pattern at SPX 956 in June, and warned of a potential top even though this level was well below expectations. The market did correct 9%, but when it rose past the OEW 912 pivot we mentioned that Primary wave B was getting ready to extend. Again in August we had a confluence of time cycles and a potential completed wave pattern at SPX 1039. Again we alerted that a potential end to Primary B was at hand. This time the market held support at the OEW 990 pivot, and when it rose past the OEW 1018 pivot again we mentioned that Primary wave B was preparing to extend. This is how we track markets. We project an outcome, monitor the waves as they unfold, and then use the wave count and various indicators to determine what the market is projecting. When it deviates from the general path we know a change is underway. Anticipate, monitor, adjust when necessary. If we have indeed witnessed the end of Primary wave B, Primary wave C should last many months, and either retest the SPX 667 low, or break through it into the SPX 400's. We can not anticipate which, until we see some downtrends unfold.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
Primary wave B has been moving along fairly well, and took many by surprise. The first uptrend from Mar-Jun traveled from SPX 667 to SPX 956. We labeled that wave Major wave A of a three Major wave rally. A downtrend followed into July and SPX 869. This we labeled Major wave B. When tracking the current uptrend, Major wave C, we noticed that it was starting to look a lot like the first uptrend, Major wave A. That uptrend unfolded in an Intermediate wave ABC pattern, with a simple A wave and a five wave C wave. This uptrend has been doing exactly the same thing: a simple A and a five wave C. We made some projections based upon a somewhat equal relationship, but also noted the potential for a contracting ending diagonal triangle as well. The market had come such a long way, an historic rally, in such a short period of time. A contracting ending diagonal triangle made sense. What we didn't anticipate is a real failure, a failed fifth wave. We may have just witnessed this even rarer event. This uptrend was moving along as expected. A simple Intermediate wave A to SPX 1018, and Intermediate wave B to SPX 979. Then the five waves of Intermediate wave C started to unfold: wave 1 SPX 1018, wave 2 SPX 992, wave 3 SPX 1080, wave 4 SPX 1041, and wave 5 was underway. After rallying to SPX 1070 on tuesday this last wave looked to be on its way. On wednesday, after the PMI report, the SPX dropped to 1046, still acceptable for the fifth wave. Yet, the DOW was already in trouble. On thursday, the SPX broke even lower after the ISM report, dropping below 1041 and overlapping wave 1. Now, with the overlap, it looked like the ending diagonal triangle scenario was in play, or even worse, a failed fifth wave. The channel created by the highs and lows of waves 1-2-3-4 did not look quite right for a diagonal unless it was the rare expanding type. On friday, after the payroll report, the market broke even lower to SPX 1020. This triggered a potential trend reversal was in the making. In just two days, thursday and friday, the market had strayed from what was anticipated and shifted direction. Since our leading indicator for trend reversals has worked quite well, we are going with the failed fifth wave scenario, and shifting the expanding diagonal triangle to the alternate count. The SPX charts will display the first, and the DOW charts the latter. In would be quite fitting for such an historical rally, during a bear market, to end with a failed fifth wave. Kudos to Catherine, Mathew, Richard and a few others in our group, as well as, several posters here that have been spot on this move.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum was quite oversold at friday's lows, but has only managed to move slightly off of that condition. Minor waves 1 and 3 of Intermediate wave C were clearly five wave structures. The rally from the SPX 1041 low also appeared to be starting off as a five wave structure right into SPX 1070. Since Minor wave 4 appeared to end exactly at the OEW 1041 pivot and near the Minor wave 1 high (1039). This pivot played a key role as both support and resistance. When the SPX broke through it on thursday we had to quickly take notice. Now that the SPX has found some support at the OEW 1018 pivot we can set some parameters. Should the SPX break through the OEW 990 pivot the expanding diagonal triangle scenario is eliminated, and a downtrend will likely be confirmed. Until then, it remains as an alternate count. For the failed fifth wave scenario. The OEW 1041 pivot should offer sizeable resistance. However, the SPX could rally all the way back to the OEW 1061 pivot and this scenario could still be in play. Much beyond that and the expanding diagonal would take preference. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets averaged a 2.0% loss. India's BSE bucked the trend rising 2.1% on the week. The NIKK is the only confirmed downtrend.
The European markets lost 1.9% on the week. No confirmed downtrends yet.
The Commodities equities were mixed: Canada (-2.3%) and Brazil (+1.4%). Find it quite interesting that India and Brazil were the only gainers.
COMMODITIES
Bonds (+1.1%) continue to uptrend as yields dropped 11 basis points. From Treasuries to Bonds all yields appear in downtrends.
Crude gained 5.6% after losing 8.9% last week. This wild market remains in a downtrend.
Gold gained 1.2% in another choppy week. Both Gold and Silver remain in uptrends.
The USD gained 0.4% on the week versus the EUR (-0.8%) and the JPY (-0.2%). USD still downtrending, and EUR and JPY uptrending.
NEXT WEEK
After a very busy week the economic noise simmers down a bit. Monday kicks off the week with ISM services at 10:00. Then wednesday is Consumer credit. On thursday the regular weekly Jobless claims and then Wholesale inventores. Friday ends the week with the Trade deficit. As for the FED, governor Tarullo gives a speech in AZ on thursday, and chairman Bernanke gives a speech at FED hdqtrs that evening. On friday, vice chairman Kohn also gives a speech at FED hdqtrs. Best to your weekend and week!
CHARTS: Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com
October 02
weekend update
REVIEW
Disappointing economic reports pressure market for most of the week. Indeed, the recovery may not be around the corner as most were led to believe. But the news wasn't all negative. Case-Shiller home prices rose again, the ADP index improved, as did the Q2 GDP revision. Personal income, consumer spending, construction spending and pending home sales all improved too. However, when consumer confidence was reported lower on tuesday the SPX dropped 12 points in two hours. On wednesday, Chicago PMI was reported lower and the SPX lost 17 points in 15 minutes. Then on thursday after a worsening jobless claims was reported before the open, ISM was reported lower at 10AM and the SPX dropped 18 points in two hours. Finally on friday non-farm payrolls were reported worsening before the open. The market sold off pre-market and gapped down at the open, losing 9 points in the first few minutes. Auto sales tumbled for the month of Sept. and factory orders turned negative too. For the week the SPX/DOW was -1.8%, and the NDX/NAZ was -2.0%. The market had opened the week at SPX 1044, and rallied to 1070 before the bad news starting hitting the wires. The Asian market averaged a 2.0% decline, Europe was -1.9%, and the Commodity equities were mixed. Bonds rose 1.1%, Crude rallied 5.6%, Gold added 1.2%, and the USD (+0.4%) gained against the EUR and JPY.
LONG TERM: bear market
After the bull market topped in Oct 2007 at SPX 1576, the market declined for 17 months to SPX 667 losing 58% of its value. We counted all the waves down and noticed a potential completed wave pattern right near the lows. The 17 month decline took the form of a zigzag (5-3-5), and we labeled the low Primary wave A of an ABC Primary wave bear market. Using historical references we then projected that Primary wave B was underway and projected a 50% retracement of the entire 909 point decline. This projected that Primary wave B could reach SPX 1122 in about five months. The projection appeared outrageous at the time, as most were solidly in the bear camp. Now, about seven months later, and after a 45% retracement, the pendulum has swung the other way. Most are now solidly in the bull camp, and we're observing another potential completed wave pattern. Only this one is a top, and the potential end of the bear market counter rally Primary wave B. We must also state that we observed a completed pattern at SPX 956 in June, and warned of a potential top even though this level was well below expectations. The market did correct 9%, but when it rose past the OEW 912 pivot we mentioned that Primary wave B was getting ready to extend. Again in August we had a confluence of time cycles and a potential completed wave pattern at SPX 1039. Again we alerted that a potential end to Primary B was at hand. This time the market held support at the OEW 990 pivot, and when it rose past the OEW 1018 pivot again we mentioned that Primary wave B was preparing to extend. This is how we track markets. We project an outcome, monitor the waves as they unfold, and then use the wave count and various indicators to determine what the market is projecting. When it deviates from the general path we know a change is underway. Anticipate, monitor, adjust when necessary. If we have indeed witnessed the end of Primary wave B, Primary wave C should last many months, and either retest the SPX 667 low, or break through it into the SPX 400's. We can not anticipate which, until we see some downtrends unfold.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
Primary wave B has been moving along fairly well, and took many by surprise. The first uptrend from Mar-Jun traveled from SPX 667 to SPX 956. We labeled that wave Major wave A of a three Major wave rally. A downtrend followed into July and SPX 869. This we labeled Major wave B. When tracking the current uptrend, Major wave C, we noticed that it was starting to look a lot like the first uptrend, Major wave A. That uptrend unfolded in an Intermediate wave ABC pattern, with a simple A wave and a five wave C wave. This uptrend has been doing exactly the same thing: a simple A and a five wave C. We made some projections based upon a somewhat equal relationship, but also noted the potential for a contracting ending diagonal triangle as well. The market had come such a long way, an historic rally, in such a short period of time. A contracting ending diagonal triangle made sense. What we didn't anticipate is a real failure, a failed fifth wave. We may have just witnessed this even rarer event. This uptrend was moving along as expected. A simple Intermediate wave A to SPX 1018, and Intermediate wave B to SPX 979. Then the five waves of Intermediate wave C started to unfold: wave 1 SPX 1018, wave 2 SPX 992, wave 3 SPX 1080, wave 4 SPX 1041, and wave 5 was underway. After rallying to SPX 1070 on tuesday this last wave looked to be on its way. On wednesday, after the PMI report, the SPX dropped to 1046, still acceptable for the fifth wave. Yet, the DOW was already in trouble. On thursday, the SPX broke even lower after the ISM report, dropping below 1041 and overlapping wave 1. Now, with the overlap, it looked like the ending diagonal triangle scenario was in play, or even worse, a failed fifth wave. The channel created by the highs and lows of waves 1-2-3-4 did not look quite right for a diagonal unless it was the rare expanding type. On friday, after the payroll report, the market broke even lower to SPX 1020. This triggered a potential trend reversal was in the making. In just two days, thursday and friday, the market had strayed from what was anticipated and shifted direction. Since our leading indicator for trend reversals has worked quite well, we are going with the failed fifth wave scenario, and shifting the expanding diagonal triangle to the alternate count. The SPX charts will display the first, and the DOW charts the latter. In would be quite fitting for such an historical rally, during a bear market, to end with a failed fifth wave. Kudos to Catherine, Mathew, Richard and a few others in our group, as well as, several posters here that have been spot on this move.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum was quite oversold at friday's lows, but has only managed to move slightly off of that condition. Minor waves 1 and 3 of Intermediate wave C were clearly five wave structures. The rally from the SPX 1041 low also appeared to be starting off as a five wave structure right into SPX 1070. Since Minor wave 4 appeared to end exactly at the OEW 1041 pivot and near the Minor wave 1 high (1039). This pivot played a key role as both support and resistance. When the SPX broke through it on thursday we had to quickly take notice. Now that the SPX has found some support at the OEW 1018 pivot we can set some parameters. Should the SPX break through the OEW 990 pivot the expanding diagonal triangle scenario is eliminated, and a downtrend will likely be confirmed. Until then, it remains as an alternate count. For the failed fifth wave scenario. The OEW 1041 pivot should offer sizeable resistance. However, the SPX could rally all the way back to the OEW 1061 pivot and this scenario could still be in play. Much beyond that and the expanding diagonal would take preference. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets averaged a 2.0% loss. India's BSE bucked the trend rising 2.1% on the week. The NIKK is the only confirmed downtrend.
The European markets lost 1.9% on the week. No confirmed downtrends yet.
The Commodities equities were mixed: Canada (-2.3%) and Brazil (+1.4%). Find it quite interesting that India and Brazil were the only gainers.
COMMODITIES
Bonds (+1.1%) continue to uptrend as yields dropped 11 basis points. From Treasuries to Bonds all yields appear in downtrends.
Crude gained 5.6% after losing 8.9% last week. This wild market remains in a downtrend.
Gold gained 1.2% in another choppy week. Both Gold and Silver remain in uptrends.
The USD gained 0.4% on the week versus the EUR (-0.8%) and the JPY (-0.2%). USD still downtrending, and EUR and JPY uptrending.
NEXT WEEK
After a very busy week the economic noise simmers down a bit. Monday kicks off the week with ISM services at 10:00. Then wednesday is Consumer credit. On thursday the regular weekly Jobless claims and then Wholesale inventores. Friday ends the week with the Trade deficit. As for the FED, governor Tarullo gives a speech in AZ on thursday, and chairman Bernanke gives a speech at FED hdqtrs that evening. On friday, vice chairman Kohn also gives a speech at FED hdqtrs. Best to your weekend and week!
CHARTS: Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com
Sharnin 2
Forumer storico
Un articolo di Andrea Mazzalai assolutamente da leggere.
CES NET BIRTH/DEATH MODEL: LA VERITA' E' FIGLIA DEL TEMPO | icebergfinanza
CES NET BIRTH/DEATH MODEL: LA VERITA' E' FIGLIA DEL TEMPO | icebergfinanza