Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (3 lettori)

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
nel declino generale sul lungo bondarolo , il Buxl crukko sta sottoperformando i colleghi , perse 7 figure e mezze dai max

Where have all the direct bids gone?

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Sep 10 09:04. Thursday’s US 30-year Treasury auction proved more telling than might have been expected.
As Reuters reported (our emphasis):
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) – An auction of $13 billion of reopened 30-year bonds <US30YT=RR> met with comparatively soft demand on Thursday, rounding out this week’s sales of $67 billion of U.S. government coupon-bearing securities.
The auction “tailed,” with a high yield of 3.82 percent — above where the comparable securities were trading on the open market and indicating bidders moved aggressively to cheapen the bonds going into the sale.
Primary dealers, the large banks and investment firms that do business directly with the Federal Reserve, also had to take home about 56 percent of the paper, which is the highest share since October 2009. Direct bidders took 8.3 percent, which was the lowest since January.
Unsurprisingly, long-term yields sold off on the lacklustre demand for the auction:

And what was really interesting was the low level of direct bids — those struck by non-primary dealers bidding on their own accounts, i.e. institutional investors like hedge funds or bond funds — which averaged 8 per cent versus a 22 per cent average.
What’s worse, as Reuters’ IFR Markets points out, it’s likely that the 8 per cent represented bids from aspiring primary dealers anyway, meaning the Street probably ended up swallowing as much as 64 per cent of the auction:
Oh what a difference a day, or better said an auction makes as treasuries seemed to lose their luster one minute after the $13 bln 30-year auction deadline.
Indeed the Direct bid, the bulk of which is generally real money investment funds, absolutely plummeted from an average of 22% to just over 8% while Indirects only were able to muster an average 36% take-down.
Even worse the 8.3% Directs was likely spot on the average take for aspiring dealers (average about $1.2 bln), thus the Street swallowed almost 64% of this auction (vs closer to an average of 53% when adding in aspiring dealers).
The rather dismal result means that the last six treasury coupon auctions (2s,5s,7s plus 3s,10s and 30s) are now all underwater and that more than a few on the Street are looking for a chair lest the rally music has stopped.
Which, needless to say, suggests some changing sentiment despite on first glance a very average and respectable 2.73 times cover for the auction.
Although, according to Barclays Capital, the weak final investor interest may have been driven by relatively stronger economic data and low absolute yield levels.
 

f4f

翠鸟科
nel declino generale sul lungo bondarolo , il Buxl crukko sta sottoperformando i colleghi , perse 7 figure e mezze dai max

Where have all the direct bids gone?

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yess all'improvviso la follia bundarooola si è affievolita
segno che il market è al bottom, e la liquidità , prezzando meno il risssschio, torna su equity?
 

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