Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69)

Muudis ammonisce i jap, brrrrrr che paura

Moody’s Warns on Japan’s Fiscal Discipline Under Kan By Keiko Ujikane


Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The replacement of Japan’s finance minister four months into the government’s term increases concern about the commitment to contain the world’s largest public debt burden, Moody’s Investors Service said.
“Japan’s fiscal strategy unknowns deepen” with the appointment of Naoto Kan last week, Thomas Byrne, senior vice president of Moody’s in Singapore, wrote in a note yesterday.
Byrne’s stance contrasts with analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, who said Kan has indicated a willingness to repair Japan’s finances. The 63-year-old deputy prime minister last week replaced Hirohisa Fujii to become the country’s sixth finance chief in 18 months, tasked with preventing a relapse into a recession while containing the debt.
“The revolving door for leadership at the Ministry of Finance does not engender confidence that Japan will put together a credible fiscal strategy to reduce deficits and stabilize the massive government debt overhang in the medium term,” Byrne said.
Kan said on Jan. 7 that it will be a “challenge” to maintain fiscal discipline this year and he will try to secure funds to fulfill the ruling Democratic Party of Japan’s pledges without exacerbating the debt burden.
The role change also “raises doubts” over the administration’s commitment to a 44 trillion yen ($480 billion) cap on new Japanese government bond sales for next fiscal year, Byrne said. Kan may “seek to further boost fiscal stimulus to an economy hamstrung by renewed and stubborn deflationary pressures,” he said.
Debt Rating
Moody’s rates Japan’s debt at Aa2, the third-highest investment grade, with a stable outlook. Byrne said the nation’s sovereign outlook in the medium term depends on “stronger economic growth and a return to a gradual course of deficit reduction and debt containment.”
“While we believe the domestic market will readily absorb even the record level of JGB issuance this year, strains on JGB yields could emerge in outlying years,” Byrne said. Local residents held 94 percent of Japanese government bonds as of June, Finance Ministry data show.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year note fell 1 basis point to 1.35 percent in Tokyo yesterday. They reached a two-month high of 1.365 percent on Jan. 8, the day after Kan was appointed.
Record Budget
Fujii, 77, resigned last week after his health deteriorated following weeks of negotiations with ministers over next fiscal year’s budget, which was unveiled by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama on Dec. 25. Kan, who will stay as deputy leader and minister of economic and fiscal policy, will try to get lawmakers’ approval for the record 92.3 trillion yen proposal when parliament convenes later this month.
Morgan Stanley strategist Atsushi Ito said investors have “misunderstood” Kan’s remarks since his appointment and his policy isn’t based on increasing spending to spur the economy.
“He’s not a fiscal expansionist,” said Tokyo-based Ito. “He wants to achieve a policy mix of fiscal austerity, monetary accommodation and a weaker yen.”
The finance minister also indicated last week that he’s open to discussing an increase in the country’s 5 percent sales tax once wasteful spending has been eliminated. His remarks signal the government may start “seriously debating” an increase in the levy as early as next year, even while it risks suppressing consumer spending, said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs.
Japan’s debt is projected to be 246 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, compared with 108 percent for the U.S. and 89 percent for Germany, according to an International Monetary Fund report released in November.
 
Muudis ammonisce i jap, brrrrrr che paura

Moody’s Warns on Japan’s Fiscal Discipline Under Kan By Keiko Ujikane


Japan’s debt is projected to be 246 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, compared with 108 percent for the U.S. and 89 percent for Germany, according to an International Monetary Fund report released in November.
89% Germania ? stica :-o

Ma Moodys e i vari compagni di merende della finanza americana non sono ancora in carcere ? :rolleyes:
Leggiti questo articolo di Bottarelli, amico personale ed emulo di Ambrosio:
FINANZA/ Le tre sorelle che vogliono far fuori l?Europa | Pagina 1
 
gipa usa la parola "driver" perchè fa figo
come dire "location", "skillato", "meeting" :-o
a volte gli dicono persino "faggot" :D

Comunque mi fa specie guardare i dati cinesi... già sono tutti falsi quelli del governo americano, figurati quelli cinesi :rolleyes:


ebbeh? il nostro è il thread più snob di IO
mica si diventa bbbbanditio dalla sera alla mattina :)


cmq
driver mi pare adatto .. in italico, poccorre un giro di parole
faggot :lol::lol::lol: a tse un purzèl :cool: 3' nel web per capirti :cool::cool::cool:
 
gipa usa la parola "driver" perchè fa figo
come dire "location", "skillato", "meeting" :-o
a volte gli dicono persino "faggot" :D

Comunque mi fa specie guardare i dati cinesi... già sono tutti falsi quelli del governo americano, figurati quelli cinesi :rolleyes:
:D:D:D:D:D

Giallo del momento: chi vuol far fuori l'agricoltura italiana, agrumi, grano, latte?
 
anche Ambrosio ora ha puntato i japs

A global fiasco is brewing in Japan



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: January 12th, 2010
71 Comments Comment on this article

I have felt rather lonely after suggesting in my New Year Predictions that Japan is dangerously close to blowing up on its sovereign debts, with consequences that will be felt across the world.
My intended point — overly condensed — was that 2010 will prove to be the year that Japan flips from deflation to something very different: the beginnings of debt monetization by a terrified central bank that will ultimately spin out of control, perhaps crossing into hyperinflation by the middle of the decade.
So it is nice to have some company: first from PIMCO’s Paul McCulley, who said that the Bank of Japan should buy “unlimited amounts” of long-term government debt (JGBs) to lift the country out of a “deflationary liquidity trap” and raise the souffle again.
His point is different from mine, in that he discerns deflation “as far as the eye can see”. But in a sense it is the same point. Once a country embarks on such policies, the game is nearly up. The IMF says Japan’s gross public debt will reach 227pc of GDP this year. This is compounding at ever faster speeds towards 250pc by mid-decade.
The only reason why this has not yet blown up is because investors (mostly Japanese) have not yet had the leap in imagination required to understand their predicament, and act on it. That roughly is the argument of Dylan Grice from Societe Generale in his latest Popular Delusions note released today. “A global fiasco is brewing in Japan.”
Japan’s deficits are already within the hyperinflation “red flag” zone identified by historian Peter Bernholz (”Monetary Regimes and Inflation” .. the Bible on this subject). As you can see from the charts below, prices start to spiral into the stratosphere once the deficits as a share of government expenditure rises above a third and stays there for several years.
japandebt.gif

japandebt2.gif

The Bernholz range for the five hyperinflations of France, Germany, Poland, Brazil, and Bolivia over the centuries is surprisingly wide, from 33pc to 91pc. Japan has been in the that range almost continuously for the last eight years. The US joined the party in 2009. Japan’s Bernholz index will rise above 50pc this year for the first time, meaning that it will have to borrow more from the bond markets than raises in tax revenue. You see the problem.
We all know that Japan has been racking up debt for Two Lost Decades, yet the sky has refused to fall. Borrowing costs have slithered down to 1.36pc on 10-year JGBs and under 1pc on shorter debt, though they are not as low as they were .. nota bene. This seeming defiance of gravity has emboldened the Krugmanites and Keynesian prime-pumpers to call for a repeat in the US, UK, and Europe. There lies a great danger.
Mr Grice said Japan was able to pull off this feat only because its captive saving pool was large enough to cover the short-fall, and because the Japanese people continued to be reassured by the conjurer’s illusion that all was well. This cannot continue.
The country tipped into outright demographic decline in 2005. Households have already stopped adding to their stock of JGBs. As the aging crisis accelerates, the elderly are running down their assets. The savings rate will soon crash below zero.
Japan can turn to foreign investors to plug the gap, or course, but at what price? If yields reached UK or US levels of 4pc, debt costs would soak up nearly all the budget, leaving nothing for schools, roads, the police, or salaries for the Ministry of Finance. “I doubt there is any yield that international capital markets can find acceptable that will not bankrupt the Japanese state,” he said.
Note too that the Japanese will also have to run down their holdings of US Treasuries, currently $750bn or 10pc of the entire stock of US Treasury debt, as well as selling a lot of Gilts and Belgian bonds.
“This might very well precipitate other government funding crises. At the very least I’d expect it to trigger an international bond market rout scary enough to spook all other asset classes. So maybe we should all be concerned that Japan is in the hyperinflationary range. And if so, maybe we should think a little more carefully about how Western governments consider their debt burdens. Maybe Japan’s will be the crisis that wakes up the rest of the world,” he said.
Will it happen, this week, this month, this year, or will Tokyo keep the illusion of solvency going for years longer? Who knows. Japan is an endlessly mystifying society. But as Mr Grice puts it, if you are sitting on a tectonic fault line, expect an earthquake.
 
alludi alla turnè zinese di Zaia :-?:D

driver - spingitore --->:sorpresa:
Alludo al CROLLO DEL MERCATO AGRUMICOLO. In Sicilia il comparto agrumicolo dovrebbe fare 800 mln di euro, ne sta facendo un quarto mentre l'ingresso di merce estera dallla Spagna e dal Marocco è aumentato del 70%.
Del crollo del mercato del grano già sappiamo, sempre per l'ingresso di merce estera a basso costo.
Del latte lo sapete? la concorrenza del latte dell'Est che costa molto meno per via di cambio con l'euro.
Rosarno è stata una trappola, avranno scelto Rosarno perchè c'era una situazione di diffusa illegalità.
Adesso capisco il perchè di quell'articolo estremamente fazioso che c'era su El Pais, sui fatti di Rosarno! E ce n'era uno uguale su Le Figaro, che è di destra, quindi deduco che c'è dentro fino al collo anche la Francia.
Del resto si sa che Spagna e Francia contrabbandano come propria merce marocchina o algerina e tunisina. Come si sa che Francia e Spagna esportano più agrumi di quello che producono.

Noto l'assordante silenzio del ministro Zaia.

Ah, i "contributi europei alla raccolta" di cui pure hanno parlato i giornali semplicemente NON ESISTONO!
 
Alludo al CROLLO DEL MERCATO AGRUMICOLO. In Sicilia il comparto agrumicolo dovrebbe fare 800 mln di euro, ne sta facendo un quarto mentre l'ingresso di merce estera dallla Spagna e dal Marocco è aumentato del 70%.
Del crollo del mercato del grano già sappiamo, sempre per l'ingresso di merce estera a basso costo.
Del latte lo sapete? la concorrenza del latte dell'Est che costa molto meno per via di cambio con l'euro.
Rosarno è stata una trappola, avranno scelto Rosarno perchè c'era una situazione di diffusa illegalità.
Adesso capisco il perchè di quell'articolo estremamente fazioso che c'era su El Pais, sui fatti di Rosarno! E ce n'era uno uguale su Le Figaro, che è di destra, quindi deduco che c'è dentro fino al collo anche la Francia.
Del resto si sa che Spagna e Francia contrabbandano come propria merce marocchina o algerina e tunisina. Come si sa che Francia e Spagna esportano più agrumi di quello che producono.

Noto l'assordante silenzio del ministro Zaia.

Ah, i "contributi europei alla raccolta" di cui pure hanno parlato i giornali semplicemente NON ESISTONO!


melda
melda, melda, melda

citazione da 'ocean's eleven'
 
:D:D:D:D:D

Giallo del momento: chi vuol far fuori l'agricoltura italiana, agrumi, grano, latte?
bah, nel 1992 i vari Goldman/Merril e compagnia bella hanno distrutto l'industria italiana, hanno comprato con quattro soldi e poi hanno smantellato le industrie.
Dici che ora stanno attaccando anche quella poca agricoltura che ci rimane ? Possono benissimo crederci. Che logica ci può essere? Una strategia "dividi et impera" per farci litigare fra Europei ?
Oppure gli ammmericani controllano già direttamente gli agrumi spagnoli ?
Oppure è solo una guerra fra europei ?
 

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