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Manufacturing data shows Asian divide
By Kevin Brown in Singapore
Published: December 1 2010 04:13 | Last updated: December 1 2010 04:13
China’s official measure of manufacturing industry performance rose for the seventh successive month in November, underlining a widening gap between Asia’s largest economy and much of the rest of the region.
The strong performance was underlined by a significant rise in the unofficial but widely watched HSBC Markit purchasing managers’ index for China, also released on Wednesday, which improved at the strongest pace for eight months.
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The strong Chinese numbers suggest that demand is continuing to improve, in spite of Beijing’s attempts to slow the economy by raising interest rates and increasing the level of reserves that banks are required to hold as a way of discouraging lending.
Figures published with the two surveys suggest that output and export orders are continuing to rise, but are being outpaced by input prices, which moved up firmly.
Hongbin Qu, HSBC’s chief China economist, said the faster rise in input prices, against the backdrop of loose monetary policy in the US, was likely to prompt further concern about inflation among Chinese policymakers.
“We expect Beijing to step up its efforts of quantitative tightening and to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in the coming months,” Mr Hu said.
The China figures follow a sharp decline in the comparable manufacturing index for Japan. HSBC’s PMI indices for South Korea and Taiwan, also published on Wednesday, suggested continuing weakness, although both indicated a slight improvement over October.
PMI figures from India, expected later on Wednesday, will be closely examined by economists for evidence of growing inflationary pressures. India said on Tuesday that the economy grew at an annual rate of 8.9 per cent in the quarter to the end of September, which was above expectations.
The manufacturing indices reinforce the view that Asia’s economy is dividing into two camps. Rapid growth in China and India is generating fears of destabilising asset bubbles, but growth is weaker in Japan and much of emerging Asia, while remaining generally stronger than in the US and Europe.
The detailed numbers released on Wednesday show that China’s official PMI, produced by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, rose to a seven-month high of 55.2 in November from 54.7 in October. The unofficial HSBC China PMI rose to 55.3 from 54.8 a month earlier.
A reading of above 50 in PMI surveys indicates expansion, while a reading below that level indicates contraction.
The HSBC South Korea index moved to 50.2, from a 20 month low of 46.7 in October, which left it below the long run average for the series. Song Yi Kim, a HSBC economist, said the slight strengthening pointed to a potential rebound in growth, following improvements in exports and consumer confidence.
The HSBC Taiwan index told a similar story, rising to 51.7 in November from October’s reading of 48.6. Donna Kwok, another HSBC economist, said the outcome “lays to rest fears that the rebound in the performance of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector post the global financial crisis is about to plummet back into deep negative territory.”
The Nomura Japan Materials Management Association PMI for Japan showed a contraction for the third successive month, with a reading of 47.3, fractionally higher than October’s 47.2, but still indicating a deterioration in overall manufacturing sector performance.