BUND, TBOND. Arriva l'inverno.......(VM99 anos)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Here is the article in which he was quoted, followed by several others which may be of interest to some of you:
Oil Falls More Than $6 on Signs U.S. Economy Entered Recession
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Fall as Equity Plunge Deters Investors
Gold Pares Gains to Record as Global Equities, Dollar Tumble
Cocoa Sinks in N.Y> as Investors Sell Commodities to Raise Cash
There were many more from Bloomberg today but you get the idea. So what is going on?
I do not think that it has much to do with a global slowdown, which is mainly in the west. However I do think deleveraging is a big factor. A number of the better hedge funds with a global brief have done very well in commodities, as have many individual investors who have profited from commodities via shares, funds, ETFs and futures.
To risk a brave contrarian call today, I think many commodities, great secular theme that they undoubtedly are, have run ahead too quickly during the frenzy to buy the one sector with upside momentum. Those that have accelerated the most are increasingly susceptible to medium-term corrections, which I would describe as anything from a few months to two years.
Conversely, bears have had a field day shorting stock market indices and particularly financial shares. Sentiment has reached hysterical extremes, reminiscent of deeply oversold conditions over the decades. If the rational debate today is not about the possibility of financial Armageddon, but instead, how much blood we need to see in the streets before concluding that the bottoming out process is underway, then we should be thinking more about what to buy among oversold stocks and funds, rather than what to sell.
Lastly, how about this for a contrary indicator:
Goldman's Abby Cohen to Stop Making S&P 500 Forecasts
Oil Falls More Than $6 on Signs U.S. Economy Entered Recession
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Fall as Equity Plunge Deters Investors
Gold Pares Gains to Record as Global Equities, Dollar Tumble
Cocoa Sinks in N.Y> as Investors Sell Commodities to Raise Cash
There were many more from Bloomberg today but you get the idea. So what is going on?
I do not think that it has much to do with a global slowdown, which is mainly in the west. However I do think deleveraging is a big factor. A number of the better hedge funds with a global brief have done very well in commodities, as have many individual investors who have profited from commodities via shares, funds, ETFs and futures.
To risk a brave contrarian call today, I think many commodities, great secular theme that they undoubtedly are, have run ahead too quickly during the frenzy to buy the one sector with upside momentum. Those that have accelerated the most are increasingly susceptible to medium-term corrections, which I would describe as anything from a few months to two years.
Conversely, bears have had a field day shorting stock market indices and particularly financial shares. Sentiment has reached hysterical extremes, reminiscent of deeply oversold conditions over the decades. If the rational debate today is not about the possibility of financial Armageddon, but instead, how much blood we need to see in the streets before concluding that the bottoming out process is underway, then we should be thinking more about what to buy among oversold stocks and funds, rather than what to sell.
Lastly, how about this for a contrary indicator:
Goldman's Abby Cohen to Stop Making S&P 500 Forecasts
Sharnin 2
Forumer storico
Consolati con questadan24 ha scritto:bene nel senso che non leggerà più le quazzate che ha continuato a sparare a mesi alterni su cnbc...bloomberg etc...poi non so se l'avete presente...è pure un cesso ma proprio cesso
Claudia Giarrusso, catanese, ingegnere idraulico, laureata a Catania e dottorata a Salerno, dopo un'esperienza di due anni maturata nel mercato olandese al servizio di una società specializzata in opere di ingegneria marittima, è stata ingaggiata dal Governo di Dubai come capostruttura del Dubai Waterfront, il grandioso complesso di isole artificiali sulla costa
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