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gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
il tricheco aveva detto che se i salari fossero aumentati più dell'inflazione programmata dell'area euro non avrebbe abbassato i tassi 
German Wages, Prices Limit ECB's Room for Rate Cut (Update1)
By Simone Meier and Christian Vits
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- IG Metall, Germany's largest labor union, won the biggest pay increase for steelworkers in 15 years and producer prices rose more than economists forecast, limiting the European Central Bank's room to cut interest rates.
IG Metall said today it secured a 5.2 percent pay raise for some 85,000 steelworkers at companies such as ThyssenKrupp AG. Producer prices rose 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. That's the biggest gain since December 2006 and above economists' forecast for a 2.8 percent increase.
``It will be difficult for the ECB to move toward cutting rates,'' said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``Today's inflation and wage data out of Germany suggest there won't be an easing in inflation anytime soon.''
Inflation in the 15-nation euro region accelerated to 3.2 percent in January, the fastest pace in 14 years. The Frankfurt- based ECB, which aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent, on Feb. 7 left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high of 4 percent, even as economic growth slows.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in January threatened to raise rates if unions push through wage increases that take the jump in inflation into account. While he retracted the threat this month as the growth outlook weakens, investor bets on imminent rate cuts may be misplaced, some economists said.
`Tough Talk'
Today's wage deal ``is what the ECB wanted to avoid with its tough talk two months ago,'' said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro in London. ``With inflation already well above the ECB's objective, this makes it less likely we'll see interest-rate cuts in the months ahead.''
ABN Amro today revised its ECB forecast, saying the central bank will keep borrowing costs at 4 percent through 2009. It previously forecast increases to a rate of 4.50 percent.
European government bonds fell as investors reduced bets on ECB rate cuts. The two-year note yield rose 9 basis points to 3.27 percent by 11:04 a.m. in London. The yield on futures contracts maturing in December rose to 3.57 percent from 3.49 percent yesterday. It was as high as 4.36 percent on Dec. 27.
Energy Costs
While IG Metall had initially asked for 8 percent more pay, today's agreement may ``give other labor unions the courage to push for stronger wage increases,'' said Thorsten Polleit, chief German economist at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt.
Ver.di, Germany's second-biggest labor union, wants 8 percent more pay for about 1.3 million workers on federal and local government payrolls, the biggest wage demand since 1992. With the chemicals industry seeking a 7 percent raise, IG Metall Chairman Berthold Huber has said 2008 will be a ``mega-wage year.''
Wage contracts for 3.2 million workers in Germany's metal, electronics and car industries at companies such as Daimler AG and Siemens AG will expire Oct. 31.
Companies may raise prices to compensate for higher wages and increased costs. The price of oil has surged 71 percent in the last 12 months, reaching a record $100.10 a barrel yesterday.
Oil products in Germany gained 18.7 percent from a year earlier and the cost of gasoline was up 11.8 percent, today's producer-price report showed. Heavy heating oil surged 47 percent.
``The recent increase in euro-area inflation causes intense concern,'' ECB council member Nicholas Garganas said in Athens today. ``The ECB Governing Council sticks to its pledge to avert any second-round effects on consumer prices.''
Still, Europe's economy is cooling. The growth rate halved to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, service industries grew at the slowest pace in more than four years in January and consumer and executive confidence fell to a two-year low.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has pared its main rate to 3 percent from 5.5 percent since September to keep the world's largest economy from sliding into a recession. The Bank of England on Feb. 7 cut rates for the second time in three months, taking its benchmark to 5.25 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at [email protected] ; Christian Vits in Frankfurt [email protected] .
Last Updated: February 20, 2008 08:55 EST
German Wages, Prices Limit ECB's Room for Rate Cut (Update1)
By Simone Meier and Christian Vits
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- IG Metall, Germany's largest labor union, won the biggest pay increase for steelworkers in 15 years and producer prices rose more than economists forecast, limiting the European Central Bank's room to cut interest rates.
IG Metall said today it secured a 5.2 percent pay raise for some 85,000 steelworkers at companies such as ThyssenKrupp AG. Producer prices rose 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. That's the biggest gain since December 2006 and above economists' forecast for a 2.8 percent increase.
``It will be difficult for the ECB to move toward cutting rates,'' said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``Today's inflation and wage data out of Germany suggest there won't be an easing in inflation anytime soon.''
Inflation in the 15-nation euro region accelerated to 3.2 percent in January, the fastest pace in 14 years. The Frankfurt- based ECB, which aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent, on Feb. 7 left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high of 4 percent, even as economic growth slows.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in January threatened to raise rates if unions push through wage increases that take the jump in inflation into account. While he retracted the threat this month as the growth outlook weakens, investor bets on imminent rate cuts may be misplaced, some economists said.
`Tough Talk'
Today's wage deal ``is what the ECB wanted to avoid with its tough talk two months ago,'' said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro in London. ``With inflation already well above the ECB's objective, this makes it less likely we'll see interest-rate cuts in the months ahead.''
ABN Amro today revised its ECB forecast, saying the central bank will keep borrowing costs at 4 percent through 2009. It previously forecast increases to a rate of 4.50 percent.
European government bonds fell as investors reduced bets on ECB rate cuts. The two-year note yield rose 9 basis points to 3.27 percent by 11:04 a.m. in London. The yield on futures contracts maturing in December rose to 3.57 percent from 3.49 percent yesterday. It was as high as 4.36 percent on Dec. 27.
Energy Costs
While IG Metall had initially asked for 8 percent more pay, today's agreement may ``give other labor unions the courage to push for stronger wage increases,'' said Thorsten Polleit, chief German economist at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt.
Ver.di, Germany's second-biggest labor union, wants 8 percent more pay for about 1.3 million workers on federal and local government payrolls, the biggest wage demand since 1992. With the chemicals industry seeking a 7 percent raise, IG Metall Chairman Berthold Huber has said 2008 will be a ``mega-wage year.''
Wage contracts for 3.2 million workers in Germany's metal, electronics and car industries at companies such as Daimler AG and Siemens AG will expire Oct. 31.
Companies may raise prices to compensate for higher wages and increased costs. The price of oil has surged 71 percent in the last 12 months, reaching a record $100.10 a barrel yesterday.
Oil products in Germany gained 18.7 percent from a year earlier and the cost of gasoline was up 11.8 percent, today's producer-price report showed. Heavy heating oil surged 47 percent.
``The recent increase in euro-area inflation causes intense concern,'' ECB council member Nicholas Garganas said in Athens today. ``The ECB Governing Council sticks to its pledge to avert any second-round effects on consumer prices.''
Still, Europe's economy is cooling. The growth rate halved to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, service industries grew at the slowest pace in more than four years in January and consumer and executive confidence fell to a two-year low.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has pared its main rate to 3 percent from 5.5 percent since September to keep the world's largest economy from sliding into a recession. The Bank of England on Feb. 7 cut rates for the second time in three months, taking its benchmark to 5.25 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at [email protected] ; Christian Vits in Frankfurt [email protected] .
Last Updated: February 20, 2008 08:55 EST
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gipa69 ha scritto:il tricheco aveva detto che se i salari fossero aumentati più dell'inflazione programmata dell'area euro non avrebbe abbassato i tassi
German Wages, Prices Limit ECB's Room for Rate Cut (Update1)
By Simone Meier and Christian Vits
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- IG Metall, Germany's largest labor union, won the biggest pay increase for steelworkers in 15 years and producer prices rose more than economists forecast, limiting the European Central Bank's room to cut interest rates.
IG Metall said today it secured a 5.2 percent pay raise for some 85,000 steelworkers at companies such as ThyssenKrupp AG. Producer prices rose 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. That's the biggest gain since December 2006 and above economists' forecast for a 2.8 percent increase.
``It will be difficult for the ECB to move toward cutting rates,'' said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``Today's inflation and wage data out of Germany suggest there won't be an easing in inflation anytime soon.''
Inflation in the 15-nation euro region accelerated to 3.2 percent in January, the fastest pace in 14 years. The Frankfurt- based ECB, which aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent, on Feb. 7 left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high of 4 percent, even as economic growth slows.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in January threatened to raise rates if unions push through wage increases that take the jump in inflation into account. While he retracted the threat this month as the growth outlook weakens, investor bets on imminent rate cuts may be misplaced, some economists said.
`Tough Talk'
Today's wage deal ``is what the ECB wanted to avoid with its tough talk two months ago,'' said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro in London. ``With inflation already well above the ECB's objective, this makes it less likely we'll see interest-rate cuts in the months ahead.''
ABN Amro today revised its ECB forecast, saying the central bank will keep borrowing costs at 4 percent through 2009. It previously forecast increases to a rate of 4.50 percent.
European government bonds fell as investors reduced bets on ECB rate cuts. The two-year note yield rose 9 basis points to 3.27 percent by 11:04 a.m. in London. The yield on futures contracts maturing in December rose to 3.57 percent from 3.49 percent yesterday. It was as high as 4.36 percent on Dec. 27.
Energy Costs
While IG Metall had initially asked for 8 percent more pay, today's agreement may ``give other labor unions the courage to push for stronger wage increases,'' said Thorsten Polleit, chief German economist at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt.
Ver.di, Germany's second-biggest labor union, wants 8 percent more pay for about 1.3 million workers on federal and local government payrolls, the biggest wage demand since 1992. With the chemicals industry seeking a 7 percent raise, IG Metall Chairman Berthold Huber has said 2008 will be a ``mega-wage year.''
Wage contracts for 3.2 million workers in Germany's metal, electronics and car industries at companies such as Daimler AG and Siemens AG will expire Oct. 31.
Companies may raise prices to compensate for higher wages and increased costs. The price of oil has surged 71 percent in the last 12 months, reaching a record $100.10 a barrel yesterday.
Oil products in Germany gained 18.7 percent from a year earlier and the cost of gasoline was up 11.8 percent, today's producer-price report showed. Heavy heating oil surged 47 percent.
``The recent increase in euro-area inflation causes intense concern,'' ECB council member Nicholas Garganas said in Athens today. ``The ECB Governing Council sticks to its pledge to avert any second-round effects on consumer prices.''
Still, Europe's economy is cooling. The growth rate halved to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, service industries grew at the slowest pace in more than four years in January and consumer and executive confidence fell to a two-year low.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has pared its main rate to 3 percent from 5.5 percent since September to keep the world's largest economy from sliding into a recession. The Bank of England on Feb. 7 cut rates for the second time in three months, taking its benchmark to 5.25 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at [email protected] ; Christian Vits in Frankfurt [email protected] .
Last Updated: February 20, 2008 08:55 EST
i tazzi europei non zi tochano ze non in zù
ach sooooo
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Mi si chiede perchè da qualche giorno sono rialzista sul Giappone?
Rispondo:
1)Dal punto di vista fondamentale il dividend yield della borsa Giapponese è nuovamente molto vicino al rendimento del decennale giapponese, a dicembre addirittura è stato per un breve momento superiore il dividend yield e spesso quando questo è capitato il mercato giapponese ha impostato un buon rally
2)Dal punto di vista tecnico il mercato giapponese ha rintracciato circa il 50% del rialzo 2003/2008 e solitamente da questi livelli è facile che si sviluppi un rally, inoltre i mercati giapponesi minori, il topix small ed il second section non hanno ancora dato un segnale ruialzista ma sono molto vicini a darlo, il loro segnale sarebbe estremamente importante perchè nel passato hanno sempre anticipato il movimento degli indici più conosciuti
3)Dal punto di vista fondamentale l'immobiliare giapponese non può essere un problema in considerazione della situazione dell'immobiliare degli ultimi 20 anni, la possibilità che i tassi si rialzino a breve bassa in quanto un rialzo penalizzerebbe troppo l'export così come è bassa la possibilità di un dividend cut delle imprese in quanto per fortuna hanno attualmente un basso indebitamento.
Unici elementi di rischio sono che il settore finanziario giapponese sia troppo esposto ai collaterali di matrice USA o comunque al ciclo internazionale, un forte calo delle economie asiatiche oppure un nuovo rialzo dei tassi da parte della Boj.
Rispondo:
1)Dal punto di vista fondamentale il dividend yield della borsa Giapponese è nuovamente molto vicino al rendimento del decennale giapponese, a dicembre addirittura è stato per un breve momento superiore il dividend yield e spesso quando questo è capitato il mercato giapponese ha impostato un buon rally
2)Dal punto di vista tecnico il mercato giapponese ha rintracciato circa il 50% del rialzo 2003/2008 e solitamente da questi livelli è facile che si sviluppi un rally, inoltre i mercati giapponesi minori, il topix small ed il second section non hanno ancora dato un segnale ruialzista ma sono molto vicini a darlo, il loro segnale sarebbe estremamente importante perchè nel passato hanno sempre anticipato il movimento degli indici più conosciuti
3)Dal punto di vista fondamentale l'immobiliare giapponese non può essere un problema in considerazione della situazione dell'immobiliare degli ultimi 20 anni, la possibilità che i tassi si rialzino a breve bassa in quanto un rialzo penalizzerebbe troppo l'export così come è bassa la possibilità di un dividend cut delle imprese in quanto per fortuna hanno attualmente un basso indebitamento.
Unici elementi di rischio sono che il settore finanziario giapponese sia troppo esposto ai collaterali di matrice USA o comunque al ciclo internazionale, un forte calo delle economie asiatiche oppure un nuovo rialzo dei tassi da parte della Boj.
