Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:SUCA
ocio che alla prox ti faccio anche sodomizzare
:sorpresa: 
già li trattengo a stento 
Bund Tbond: choppers attack over EbenEm@il vm1727
- Creatore Discussione f4f
- Data di Inizio
ocio che alla prox ti faccio anche sodomizzare
:sorpresa: già li trattengo a stento 
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Interessante report che parla dello sviluppo nella fase attuale di un decoupling reale tra il mercato del credito che mostra spread in allargamento ed l'equity che sembra in recupero e dove i titoli considerati di bassa qualità sovraerformano quelli di alta qualità.
Personalmente prima di gridare al decoupling dei due mercati ci penserei due volte in quanto l'influenza del mercato del credito è evidente anche in una situazione in cui molte imprese soprattutto industriali hanno molto free cash flow. In particolare l'overperformance dei titoli a bassa qualità (quelli con paramentri fondamentali non buoni) all'inizio dell'anno è un fenomeno ampiamente studiato per esempio da Bernstein lo strategist di ML che ha mostrato come i primi mesi dell'anno mostrano con una frequenza statistica significativa questo fenomeno e che quindi prima di parlare di decuopling bisognerebbe aspettare che questo periodo passasse.
How sick are you of ‘decoupling’?
The great hope of the global economy last year - that emerging economies would maintain their growth despite the drag of a US slowdown - has proved a severe disappointment to many. Others argue that the fundamentals of the decoupling thesis remain intact - that increasing domestic demand will displace exports as the principal driver of growth in emerging economies and the developing world will account for an ever-greater share of global GDP growth. It was just never going to save the day.
But whether or not economic decoupling is borne out, everyone seems to love the turn of phrase. The latest question is how the linkages between equity and credit markets function. Are equity and credit decoupled?
In the second half of last year, global equity markets seemed remarkably resilient in the face of credit travails, supported not least by a belief in economic decoupling. As markets slumped through January, the alignment between the two asset classes seemed restored. Equity was catching up with credit. But are the two now firmly linked, or are equity and debt investors starting to respond to different sets of fundamentals?
Lehman think the latter. Since the second week of January, companies with the lowest credit ratings have seen their equity rally by an average of 5 per cent, while those with the highest credit ratings have seen their share prices decline by on average 4 per cent.
The recent widening in credit spreads has also not yet been reflected in European equities as stock hold above their late January lows.
Sector by sector, differences emerge. While banks, insurance and consumer stocks have tended to move in tandem with fortunes in the CDS market, others such as basic industries and telecoms have shown little correlation, despite a relatively high CDS-implied default probability.
The credit market, argues Lehman, is being driven by its own problems - huge liquidity and balance sheet constraints.
While there is a liquidity and balance sheet crisis prevailing among investors in fixed income, we cannot accept that the default risk for the 100 largest companies in the European equity market is as high as it was in Q1 2003.
They think that those focused purely on equities would do well to consider very carefully any inferences about ‘fundamentals’ from the current state of the credit markets.
Either way, there’s potential for a striking arbitrage here. As John Dizard writes in FTfm, risk is being valued very differently:
Credit markets are discounting the end of the world, while equity strategists, whose emails I spend half the morning deleting are saying that we are forming a tradeable bottom…
But as both Lehman and Dizard note, with credit markets so volatile, does anyone have the capital to pull it off?
Personalmente prima di gridare al decoupling dei due mercati ci penserei due volte in quanto l'influenza del mercato del credito è evidente anche in una situazione in cui molte imprese soprattutto industriali hanno molto free cash flow. In particolare l'overperformance dei titoli a bassa qualità (quelli con paramentri fondamentali non buoni) all'inizio dell'anno è un fenomeno ampiamente studiato per esempio da Bernstein lo strategist di ML che ha mostrato come i primi mesi dell'anno mostrano con una frequenza statistica significativa questo fenomeno e che quindi prima di parlare di decuopling bisognerebbe aspettare che questo periodo passasse.
How sick are you of ‘decoupling’?
The great hope of the global economy last year - that emerging economies would maintain their growth despite the drag of a US slowdown - has proved a severe disappointment to many. Others argue that the fundamentals of the decoupling thesis remain intact - that increasing domestic demand will displace exports as the principal driver of growth in emerging economies and the developing world will account for an ever-greater share of global GDP growth. It was just never going to save the day.
But whether or not economic decoupling is borne out, everyone seems to love the turn of phrase. The latest question is how the linkages between equity and credit markets function. Are equity and credit decoupled?
In the second half of last year, global equity markets seemed remarkably resilient in the face of credit travails, supported not least by a belief in economic decoupling. As markets slumped through January, the alignment between the two asset classes seemed restored. Equity was catching up with credit. But are the two now firmly linked, or are equity and debt investors starting to respond to different sets of fundamentals?
Lehman think the latter. Since the second week of January, companies with the lowest credit ratings have seen their equity rally by an average of 5 per cent, while those with the highest credit ratings have seen their share prices decline by on average 4 per cent.
The recent widening in credit spreads has also not yet been reflected in European equities as stock hold above their late January lows.
Sector by sector, differences emerge. While banks, insurance and consumer stocks have tended to move in tandem with fortunes in the CDS market, others such as basic industries and telecoms have shown little correlation, despite a relatively high CDS-implied default probability.
The credit market, argues Lehman, is being driven by its own problems - huge liquidity and balance sheet constraints.
While there is a liquidity and balance sheet crisis prevailing among investors in fixed income, we cannot accept that the default risk for the 100 largest companies in the European equity market is as high as it was in Q1 2003.
They think that those focused purely on equities would do well to consider very carefully any inferences about ‘fundamentals’ from the current state of the credit markets.
Either way, there’s potential for a striking arbitrage here. As John Dizard writes in FTfm, risk is being valued very differently:
Credit markets are discounting the end of the world, while equity strategists, whose emails I spend half the morning deleting are saying that we are forming a tradeable bottom…
But as both Lehman and Dizard note, with credit markets so volatile, does anyone have the capital to pull it off?
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:
Dan secondo me nei prossimi mesi l'importanza del differenziale di spread sui tassi per indirizzare i cross dovrebbe diminuire di importanza salvo che non si montino forti posizioni carry sul dollaro con impressionanti implicazioni inflazionistiche, scenario possibile ma che cercherà di essere limitato al massimo dalle banche centrali.
Più probabile una maggiore focalizzazione sui tassi di crescita delle varie aree e questo potrebbe essere un segnale di recupero più sostanziale dell'area dollaro aldilà della posizione dei tassi. Lo sgonfiamento del mercato del credito "tossico" di emanazione USA dovrebbe in realtà contribuire ad un recupero del dollaro almeno secondo me.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Un'ultima cosa.. darei un importante occhiata al giappone, nelle ultimi mesi molti report sono positivi su quel mercato per motivi tecnici e fondamentali.
Vi sono degli indicatori che si stanno posizionando favorevolmente e quindi potrebbe essere vicina una importante zona di acquisto.
Vi sono degli indicatori che si stanno posizionando favorevolmente e quindi potrebbe essere vicina una importante zona di acquisto.
f4f
翠鸟科
gipa69 ha scritto:
gooood morning bbbanda
quoto e appoggio GipaZ
ma non sono altrettanto ottimista su area dollaro
mentre condivido l'opinione su J
somma
pressioni inflazionistiche + mercato mondiale in discreta ripresa, geopardized però per aree, dove vedo China+India very good, J good, Eu mild, Us minga tant' bèen
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Short View: Never forget, inflation is the real enemyIn an uncertain world, where even in the UK a bank can be nationalised, there are some things on which we can rely, says John Authers in Tuesday’s Short View column. Last week, for the 53rd year in a row, saw the publication of the Barclays Equity Gilt study, which maps the performance of stocks and bonds in the UK.
It had a familiar message: in the long term, stocks beat bonds. But this year’s edition also carried a warning.
Over history, the great enemy of investors has been inflation. Equities have done little more than offer a hedge against it. From 1899 to 1985, UK equities’ real return, compared with UK retail prices, was negative. Stocks often failed to keep up with inflation. By 2007, the real return on UK equities since 1899 was 109 per cent, all of which had in effect been achieved in the past two decades. Over the same period, gilts lost 99.3 per cent of real purchasing power.
What is remarkable about the past 20 years is not the performance of stocks, but the way inflation was contained.
Now, Barclays says, this is coming to an end. Taking a four-year rolling average, inflation on both sides of the Atlantic has risen by more than 1 per cent during the current expansion - the first time this has happened since inflation was tamed in the early 1980s.
This is attributable to the growth of the developing world. With China and other countries demanding more, and the supply of resources limited, the logical consequence is inflation.
With inflation back as a real risk, policymakers no longer have the easy solution they have used for the past 20 years - cutting interest rates at the first sign of trouble. That implies the current credit crisis is not another turn in the cycle, but the end of an anomalous period when inflation was under control. It also implies the level of inflation in China is crucial. And the market expects Tuesday’s Chinese consumer price inflation number for January to be the highest in more than a decade.
It had a familiar message: in the long term, stocks beat bonds. But this year’s edition also carried a warning.
Over history, the great enemy of investors has been inflation. Equities have done little more than offer a hedge against it. From 1899 to 1985, UK equities’ real return, compared with UK retail prices, was negative. Stocks often failed to keep up with inflation. By 2007, the real return on UK equities since 1899 was 109 per cent, all of which had in effect been achieved in the past two decades. Over the same period, gilts lost 99.3 per cent of real purchasing power.
What is remarkable about the past 20 years is not the performance of stocks, but the way inflation was contained.
Now, Barclays says, this is coming to an end. Taking a four-year rolling average, inflation on both sides of the Atlantic has risen by more than 1 per cent during the current expansion - the first time this has happened since inflation was tamed in the early 1980s.
This is attributable to the growth of the developing world. With China and other countries demanding more, and the supply of resources limited, the logical consequence is inflation.
With inflation back as a real risk, policymakers no longer have the easy solution they have used for the past 20 years - cutting interest rates at the first sign of trouble. That implies the current credit crisis is not another turn in the cycle, but the end of an anomalous period when inflation was under control. It also implies the level of inflation in China is crucial. And the market expects Tuesday’s Chinese consumer price inflation number for January to be the highest in more than a decade.
