Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
quicksilver
Forumer storico
lo spike sul mininasdaq100 di stanotte è molto probabile che venga ricoperto entro le 15:30
in casi come questo è sempre successo
quindi long
in casi come questo è sempre successo
quindi long
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Vedi quando scende tutto che tonfo...come un pianoforte a coda scagliato giù da un grattacielo 
.....
.....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
per esattezza inquesto modo:
China to Let Banks Buy Stocks Overseas for First Time (Correct)
By Luo Jun and Zhao Yidi
(Corrects gains by Hang Seng index in the 15th paragraph in story first published on May 11.)
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China will let its banks buy shares overseas for the first time, diverting some of the country's 35 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) of savings from a local stock market where trading has surged sevenfold.
Commercial banks can invest as much as 50 percent of funds in the qualified domestic institutional investors program, or QDII, in overseas stock markets, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said on its Web site today. Investors need at least 300,000 yuan to buy such financial products, the regulator said.
This will help ``cool the very hot domestic stock market a bit,'' said Gabriel Gondard, who oversees $3.5 billion in Shanghai as a fund manager at Societe Generale venture Fortune SGAM Fund Management. ``Don't expect it to trigger a crash. Investors are still reluctant to invest overseas with booming stocks and expectations of currency appreciation at home.''
China wants more money to be invested abroad to slow the growth in the country's $1.2 trillion in currency reserves, which are flooding the domestic market with cash. Local investors have shunned QDII because they had been limited to lower yielding fixed-income and money-market products.
``The government is easing restriction on capital controls so that the central bank won't be the only institution to deal with the flood of foreign exchange coming in,'' said Tao Dong, Credit Suisse Group's China economist. ``The QDII was introduced to help mop up excess liquidity in the system.''
Bubble Trouble
China's CSI 300 Index has surged 81 percent this year, after more than doubling in 2006, as investors seek higher returns than the 2.79 percent one-year savings rate at banks. The surge has prompted officials including People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan to warn of a stock market bubble.
Daily turnover jumped almost sevenfold from 2006 to 131.6 billion yuan in the first three months, as investors opened 8.7 million new accounts to trade shares, the People's Bank of China said in its first-quarter monetary policy report yesterday.
The market boom and improving social security protection will boost spending in an economy that expanded 11.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the report.
The government has granted a total of $13.4 billion in QDII quotas to 15 commercial banks.
At the end of November, Chinese banks sold less than 3 percent of their QDII quotas. U.S. 10-year government bonds are yielding 4.62 percent a year, while the yuan has appreciated 4.3 percent against the dollar in the past twelve months.
Yuan Pressure
Expanding QDII may reduce pressure on the yuan to appreciate. The currency this week had its biggest gain since the end of a fixed dollar link in July 2005 and the U.S. is pressing China to let the currency rise more quickly.
The regulator's move ``will enable investors to have a more diversified investment portfolio and better manage risks,'' said Zhang Junyong, who runs Bank of China Ltd.'s QDII fund in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong's stock market may be the biggest beneficiary, said China International Capital Corp. Chief Economist Ha Jiming.
``Hong Kong is the most natural starting point as the QDIIs are most familiar with the Hong Kong market, especially the Chinese companies listed there,'' he said in a phone interview today in Beijing. ``It will be positive news for H shares,'' as Hong Kong-traded Chinese stocks are called.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has gained 0.5 percent this year, lagging behind the 2.5 percent advance by the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
Banks are still banned from investing in hedge funds, commodity derivatives and securities rated below investment grade, the banking regulator said.
Individuals will still be barred from investing directly overseas.
To contact the reporter on this story: Luo Jun in Shanghai at at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2007 21:40 EDT
China to Let Banks Buy Stocks Overseas for First Time (Correct)
By Luo Jun and Zhao Yidi
(Corrects gains by Hang Seng index in the 15th paragraph in story first published on May 11.)
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China will let its banks buy shares overseas for the first time, diverting some of the country's 35 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) of savings from a local stock market where trading has surged sevenfold.
Commercial banks can invest as much as 50 percent of funds in the qualified domestic institutional investors program, or QDII, in overseas stock markets, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said on its Web site today. Investors need at least 300,000 yuan to buy such financial products, the regulator said.
This will help ``cool the very hot domestic stock market a bit,'' said Gabriel Gondard, who oversees $3.5 billion in Shanghai as a fund manager at Societe Generale venture Fortune SGAM Fund Management. ``Don't expect it to trigger a crash. Investors are still reluctant to invest overseas with booming stocks and expectations of currency appreciation at home.''
China wants more money to be invested abroad to slow the growth in the country's $1.2 trillion in currency reserves, which are flooding the domestic market with cash. Local investors have shunned QDII because they had been limited to lower yielding fixed-income and money-market products.
``The government is easing restriction on capital controls so that the central bank won't be the only institution to deal with the flood of foreign exchange coming in,'' said Tao Dong, Credit Suisse Group's China economist. ``The QDII was introduced to help mop up excess liquidity in the system.''
Bubble Trouble
China's CSI 300 Index has surged 81 percent this year, after more than doubling in 2006, as investors seek higher returns than the 2.79 percent one-year savings rate at banks. The surge has prompted officials including People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan to warn of a stock market bubble.
Daily turnover jumped almost sevenfold from 2006 to 131.6 billion yuan in the first three months, as investors opened 8.7 million new accounts to trade shares, the People's Bank of China said in its first-quarter monetary policy report yesterday.
The market boom and improving social security protection will boost spending in an economy that expanded 11.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the report.
The government has granted a total of $13.4 billion in QDII quotas to 15 commercial banks.
At the end of November, Chinese banks sold less than 3 percent of their QDII quotas. U.S. 10-year government bonds are yielding 4.62 percent a year, while the yuan has appreciated 4.3 percent against the dollar in the past twelve months.
Yuan Pressure
Expanding QDII may reduce pressure on the yuan to appreciate. The currency this week had its biggest gain since the end of a fixed dollar link in July 2005 and the U.S. is pressing China to let the currency rise more quickly.
The regulator's move ``will enable investors to have a more diversified investment portfolio and better manage risks,'' said Zhang Junyong, who runs Bank of China Ltd.'s QDII fund in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong's stock market may be the biggest beneficiary, said China International Capital Corp. Chief Economist Ha Jiming.
``Hong Kong is the most natural starting point as the QDIIs are most familiar with the Hong Kong market, especially the Chinese companies listed there,'' he said in a phone interview today in Beijing. ``It will be positive news for H shares,'' as Hong Kong-traded Chinese stocks are called.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has gained 0.5 percent this year, lagging behind the 2.5 percent advance by the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
Banks are still banned from investing in hedge funds, commodity derivatives and securities rated below investment grade, the banking regulator said.
Individuals will still be barred from investing directly overseas.
To contact the reporter on this story: Luo Jun in Shanghai at at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2007 21:40 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ma sembrerebbe che questo effetto sia più dovuto ai soldi disponibili dall'"esterno" che non alla reale portata della misura....
Mentre la speculazione domestica monta...
Bank: deposits 'diverted to stocks'
By Xin Zhiming and Wang Zhenghua (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-05-14 06:58
Reduced bank deposits by Chinese households suggest that a large amount of money is being invested in the capital market, according to the central bank.
Household deposits decreased by 167.4 billion yuan ($21.7 billion) in April. In contrast, they increased by 60.6 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) at the same time last year, the People's Bank of China said on its website yesterday.
The high growth rate of M1 a narrow measure of money supply that includes cash and demand deposits plus diminishing household deposits suggests Chinese households are keeping money on tap for investment in the capital market. The red-hot stock market has grown by more than 50 percent this year after doubling last year.
Stock mania is sweeping the country despite warnings of a speculative bubble but small investors are rushing to pull out money from bank savings accounts and deposits to pump them into the share market.
Some are even mortgaging their houses or dipping into retirement savings to feed the frenzy.
Economists say the government should take steps to moderate the price surge or risk a sharp fall that could hurt millions of small investors.
"This is a very critical time. If policy adjustments take place now, the market can still have sustainable development," Hong Liang, a Goldman Sachs economist, told Associated Press. "The longer they wait, the harder the eventual landing will be."
Enthusiasm for stocks is fueled in part by a lack of other attractive investments and low interest rates.
Some have made fortunes in the booming real estate market, but the government is cracking down on speculation to rein in soaring housing costs.
On Friday, the government announced it will raise the amount that Chinese banks are allowed to invest in stocks abroad, possibly diverting some of the money pouring into domestic markets. But economists said the amounts involved will be too small to affect the country's money flows.
Regulators have also discussed raising interest rates on bank savings to make them more attractive and creating other new investment options but have announced no timetable. There has also been some talk of imposing a capital gains tax to cool off speculation.
The securities watchdog on Friday urged stock exchanges, securities dealers and other authorities to educate investors about the risks of stock market trading.
The institutions must make investors understand that stock markets are risky and they should be cautious in entering, especially those who use all their savings or pawn their apartments for loans to invest in stocks, the notice by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said.
Saying that the number of "irregularities" in the stock market was rising, the CSRC also told listed companies, securities dealers and other related institutions to release accurate, authentic, complete and timely information.
Agencies contributed to the story
Mentre la speculazione domestica monta...
Bank: deposits 'diverted to stocks'
By Xin Zhiming and Wang Zhenghua (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-05-14 06:58
Reduced bank deposits by Chinese households suggest that a large amount of money is being invested in the capital market, according to the central bank.
Household deposits decreased by 167.4 billion yuan ($21.7 billion) in April. In contrast, they increased by 60.6 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) at the same time last year, the People's Bank of China said on its website yesterday.
The high growth rate of M1 a narrow measure of money supply that includes cash and demand deposits plus diminishing household deposits suggests Chinese households are keeping money on tap for investment in the capital market. The red-hot stock market has grown by more than 50 percent this year after doubling last year.
Stock mania is sweeping the country despite warnings of a speculative bubble but small investors are rushing to pull out money from bank savings accounts and deposits to pump them into the share market.
Some are even mortgaging their houses or dipping into retirement savings to feed the frenzy.
Economists say the government should take steps to moderate the price surge or risk a sharp fall that could hurt millions of small investors.
"This is a very critical time. If policy adjustments take place now, the market can still have sustainable development," Hong Liang, a Goldman Sachs economist, told Associated Press. "The longer they wait, the harder the eventual landing will be."
Enthusiasm for stocks is fueled in part by a lack of other attractive investments and low interest rates.
Some have made fortunes in the booming real estate market, but the government is cracking down on speculation to rein in soaring housing costs.
On Friday, the government announced it will raise the amount that Chinese banks are allowed to invest in stocks abroad, possibly diverting some of the money pouring into domestic markets. But economists said the amounts involved will be too small to affect the country's money flows.
Regulators have also discussed raising interest rates on bank savings to make them more attractive and creating other new investment options but have announced no timetable. There has also been some talk of imposing a capital gains tax to cool off speculation.
The securities watchdog on Friday urged stock exchanges, securities dealers and other authorities to educate investors about the risks of stock market trading.
The institutions must make investors understand that stock markets are risky and they should be cautious in entering, especially those who use all their savings or pawn their apartments for loans to invest in stocks, the notice by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said.
Saying that the number of "irregularities" in the stock market was rising, the CSRC also told listed companies, securities dealers and other related institutions to release accurate, authentic, complete and timely information.
Agencies contributed to the story
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
L'economia Cinese sembra fuori controllo in quanto non riesce a controllare gli squilibri che crea.
China Trade Surplus Widens Ahead of Paulson Summit (Update6)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus swelled 63 percent in April from a year earlier to $16.9 billion, topping economists' forecasts and adding to tensions with the U.S. as the countries' policy makers prepare for a summit this month.
Exports jumped 26.8 percent and imports climbed 21.3 percent, the General Administration of Customs said on its Web site. The trade surplus for the first four months was $63.3 billion, 88 percent higher than a year earlier.
The gap gives more ammunition to U.S. lawmakers who say China benefits from an undervalued currency, two weeks before Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Vice Premier Wu Yi meet for trade talks in Washington. China this week agreed to buy $4 billion of U.S. technology products and allowed the yuan to have the biggest gain since the end of a dollar link.
``The yuan will have to appreciate further,'' said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd. ``The pace is already speeding up ahead of Wu's arrival in the U.S.,'' which will ``alleviate tension and create a better atmosphere.''
The yuan rose 0.22 percent to 7.6766 to the dollar at 5:30 p.m. in Shanghai, for the biggest weekly gain since the end of a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has climbed 7.8 percent since the dollar link was dropped.
April's trade surplus widened from $6.9 billion in the previous month and $10.4 billion a year earlier. Exports grew 6.9 percent in March and 23.7 percent in April 2006.
Presidential Call
The U.S. and China must talk to prevent trade disputes escalating, President Hu Jintao told George W. Bush in a phone call on May 9, China's Foreign Ministry said.
Congress is ``losing patience'' over China's currency policy, Democratic Representative John Dingell of Michigan said at a hearing in Washington this week. Dingell is chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
``Although China has embraced currency flexibility as a policy goal, Chinese authorities are not moving quickly enough,'' Mark Sobel, Treasury deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy, told a hearing of three House committees. The yuan, a denomination of the renminbi, is allowed to move 0.3 percent against the dollar either side of a daily fixing rate.
Paulson has fended off calls for sanctions while coaxing China to let the yuan strengthen further against the dollar. He has called for ``tangible results'' at the countries' Strategic Economic Dialogue of May 22-24.
Surplus Tops Predictions
The April trade surplus topped the median estimate of $15 billion in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists.
China's current account surplus, a measure of exports and imports of goods and services, widened 55 percent in 2006 from a year earlier to a record $249.9 billion, the country's currency regulator said last night.
The export surge floods the economy with cash, stoking concern that inflation will accelerate and asset bubbles burst.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says stocks may face a ``correction'' after the benchmark CSI 300 Index surged 80 percent this year. Economists expect inflation to breach the central bank's 3 percent target ceiling for a second month in April, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
The central bank on April 29 ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for the seventh time in 11 months to freeze money pumped into the economy by the export boom. It has raised interest rates twice in the past year and sold bills to drain cash from the financial system.
Monetary Policy
In a quarterly monetary policy report yesterday, the People's Bank of China said it will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth.
``The trade surplus puts more pressure on the central bank to use more measures to mop up liquidity,'' said Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. ``They will include raising interest rates and the required reserve ratio and selling bills.''
China's economy, the world's fourth largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. The country's foreign-currency reserves have swelled to a record $1.2 trillion.
Capital controls are the main cause of the surge in currency reserves and China needs to give its businesses and households more access to global financial markets to ``recycle'' the money flooding in from exports, Qu wrote in a May 7 report.
Currency Manipulation
Foreign politicians overlook the controls' effect when viewing the surge in China's foreign-exchange reserves as a sign of currency manipulation, the economist said.
``This gives them an excuse to impose greater political pressure on the renminbi and more protection against Chinese exports.''
The China Banking Regulatory Commission today said commercial banks will be able to buy stocks abroad, a step in loosening controls.
In the first quarter, China's shipments to the U.S. rose 20.4 percent to $50.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with China last year was $232.5 billion, about 30 percent of its total.
``The U.S. is taking a tougher stance on China,'' said Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai. ``All eyes will be on how China will respond.''
Standard Chartered today raised its forecast for China's current account surplus in 2007 to $400 billion and said the nation's foreign-currency reserves will rise to $1.6 trillion.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 11, 2007 06:35 EDT
China Trade Surplus Widens Ahead of Paulson Summit (Update6)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus swelled 63 percent in April from a year earlier to $16.9 billion, topping economists' forecasts and adding to tensions with the U.S. as the countries' policy makers prepare for a summit this month.
Exports jumped 26.8 percent and imports climbed 21.3 percent, the General Administration of Customs said on its Web site. The trade surplus for the first four months was $63.3 billion, 88 percent higher than a year earlier.
The gap gives more ammunition to U.S. lawmakers who say China benefits from an undervalued currency, two weeks before Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Vice Premier Wu Yi meet for trade talks in Washington. China this week agreed to buy $4 billion of U.S. technology products and allowed the yuan to have the biggest gain since the end of a dollar link.
``The yuan will have to appreciate further,'' said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd. ``The pace is already speeding up ahead of Wu's arrival in the U.S.,'' which will ``alleviate tension and create a better atmosphere.''
The yuan rose 0.22 percent to 7.6766 to the dollar at 5:30 p.m. in Shanghai, for the biggest weekly gain since the end of a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has climbed 7.8 percent since the dollar link was dropped.
April's trade surplus widened from $6.9 billion in the previous month and $10.4 billion a year earlier. Exports grew 6.9 percent in March and 23.7 percent in April 2006.
Presidential Call
The U.S. and China must talk to prevent trade disputes escalating, President Hu Jintao told George W. Bush in a phone call on May 9, China's Foreign Ministry said.
Congress is ``losing patience'' over China's currency policy, Democratic Representative John Dingell of Michigan said at a hearing in Washington this week. Dingell is chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
``Although China has embraced currency flexibility as a policy goal, Chinese authorities are not moving quickly enough,'' Mark Sobel, Treasury deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy, told a hearing of three House committees. The yuan, a denomination of the renminbi, is allowed to move 0.3 percent against the dollar either side of a daily fixing rate.
Paulson has fended off calls for sanctions while coaxing China to let the yuan strengthen further against the dollar. He has called for ``tangible results'' at the countries' Strategic Economic Dialogue of May 22-24.
Surplus Tops Predictions
The April trade surplus topped the median estimate of $15 billion in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists.
China's current account surplus, a measure of exports and imports of goods and services, widened 55 percent in 2006 from a year earlier to a record $249.9 billion, the country's currency regulator said last night.
The export surge floods the economy with cash, stoking concern that inflation will accelerate and asset bubbles burst.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says stocks may face a ``correction'' after the benchmark CSI 300 Index surged 80 percent this year. Economists expect inflation to breach the central bank's 3 percent target ceiling for a second month in April, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
The central bank on April 29 ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for the seventh time in 11 months to freeze money pumped into the economy by the export boom. It has raised interest rates twice in the past year and sold bills to drain cash from the financial system.
Monetary Policy
In a quarterly monetary policy report yesterday, the People's Bank of China said it will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth.
``The trade surplus puts more pressure on the central bank to use more measures to mop up liquidity,'' said Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. ``They will include raising interest rates and the required reserve ratio and selling bills.''
China's economy, the world's fourth largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. The country's foreign-currency reserves have swelled to a record $1.2 trillion.
Capital controls are the main cause of the surge in currency reserves and China needs to give its businesses and households more access to global financial markets to ``recycle'' the money flooding in from exports, Qu wrote in a May 7 report.
Currency Manipulation
Foreign politicians overlook the controls' effect when viewing the surge in China's foreign-exchange reserves as a sign of currency manipulation, the economist said.
``This gives them an excuse to impose greater political pressure on the renminbi and more protection against Chinese exports.''
The China Banking Regulatory Commission today said commercial banks will be able to buy stocks abroad, a step in loosening controls.
In the first quarter, China's shipments to the U.S. rose 20.4 percent to $50.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with China last year was $232.5 billion, about 30 percent of its total.
``The U.S. is taking a tougher stance on China,'' said Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai. ``All eyes will be on how China will respond.''
Standard Chartered today raised its forecast for China's current account surplus in 2007 to $400 billion and said the nation's foreign-currency reserves will rise to $1.6 trillion.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 11, 2007 06:35 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
e le masse monetarie continuano ad espandersi....
China Money Supply Rises 17.1%, Exceeding Target (Update2)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Helen Yuan
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's money supply growth exceeded the government target for a third month and lending accelerated, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.
M2, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 17.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site today, after gaining 17.3 percent in March. That beat the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the central bank's 2007 target of 16 percent.
Outstanding yuan loans also rose more quickly last month than in March as tighter lending rules and higher borrowing costs failed to curb investments in factories and real estate. The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates three times since April 2006, as well as increasing the amount lenders must set aside as reserves seven times, in a bid to slow asset bubbles and accelerating inflation.
``Lending is still very strong and that sustains fixed-asset investment,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The central bank wants to reduce loan growth and make savings more attractive to cool the stock markets.''
Kowalczyk expects the central bank to raise both lending and deposit rates in June. The one-year benchmark lending rate is at 6.39 percent.
Outstanding yuan loans climbed 16.5 percent in April from a year earlier, today's statement said, up from 16.3 percent in March. Banks extended 422 billion yuan of new loans last month, making the total for the first four months 1.8 trillion yuan, more than half the total for the whole of last year.
Economic Growth
China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from 10.4 percent in the previous three months. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas climbed 25.3 percent in the period, compared with 24.5 percent for the whole of last year.
The central bank will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth, using reserve requirements and open market operations as tools, it said in a quarterly monetary policy report.
China's trade surplus swelled 88 percent in first four months from a year earlier to $63.3 billion, pumping more cash into the economy and complicating government effort to rein in money supply, lending and fixed-asset investments.
Higher Inflation
China's inflation accelerated to 3.3 percent in March, the highest in more than two years, and more than the central bank's target of 3 percent.
With the benchmark one-year deposit rate at 2.79 percent, Chinese households, concerned that they are losing money on savings held at banks, have rushed into the stock markets. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has jumped 81 percent since the start of this year.
Among Chinese 20,000 households surveyed by the central bank in February, a record high of 30.3 percent said they intend to invest their money in stocks and funds.
Investors in China opened 8.58 million new accounts at brokerages in the first quarter, up from 5.38 million for the whole of 2006, according to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp.
Outstanding yuan deposits rose 15.7 percent in April from a year earlier, today's statement said, down from 15.9 percent in March. M1, the narrower measure which includes cash and demand deposits, increased 20 percent, marking its fifth month of exceeding growth in M2.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected] Helen Yuan in Shanghai at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2007 05:48 EDT
China Money Supply Rises 17.1%, Exceeding Target (Update2)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Helen Yuan
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's money supply growth exceeded the government target for a third month and lending accelerated, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.
M2, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 17.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site today, after gaining 17.3 percent in March. That beat the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the central bank's 2007 target of 16 percent.
Outstanding yuan loans also rose more quickly last month than in March as tighter lending rules and higher borrowing costs failed to curb investments in factories and real estate. The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates three times since April 2006, as well as increasing the amount lenders must set aside as reserves seven times, in a bid to slow asset bubbles and accelerating inflation.
``Lending is still very strong and that sustains fixed-asset investment,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The central bank wants to reduce loan growth and make savings more attractive to cool the stock markets.''
Kowalczyk expects the central bank to raise both lending and deposit rates in June. The one-year benchmark lending rate is at 6.39 percent.
Outstanding yuan loans climbed 16.5 percent in April from a year earlier, today's statement said, up from 16.3 percent in March. Banks extended 422 billion yuan of new loans last month, making the total for the first four months 1.8 trillion yuan, more than half the total for the whole of last year.
Economic Growth
China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from 10.4 percent in the previous three months. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas climbed 25.3 percent in the period, compared with 24.5 percent for the whole of last year.
The central bank will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth, using reserve requirements and open market operations as tools, it said in a quarterly monetary policy report.
China's trade surplus swelled 88 percent in first four months from a year earlier to $63.3 billion, pumping more cash into the economy and complicating government effort to rein in money supply, lending and fixed-asset investments.
Higher Inflation
China's inflation accelerated to 3.3 percent in March, the highest in more than two years, and more than the central bank's target of 3 percent.
With the benchmark one-year deposit rate at 2.79 percent, Chinese households, concerned that they are losing money on savings held at banks, have rushed into the stock markets. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has jumped 81 percent since the start of this year.
Among Chinese 20,000 households surveyed by the central bank in February, a record high of 30.3 percent said they intend to invest their money in stocks and funds.
Investors in China opened 8.58 million new accounts at brokerages in the first quarter, up from 5.38 million for the whole of 2006, according to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp.
Outstanding yuan deposits rose 15.7 percent in April from a year earlier, today's statement said, down from 15.9 percent in March. M1, the narrower measure which includes cash and demand deposits, increased 20 percent, marking its fifth month of exceeding growth in M2.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected] Helen Yuan in Shanghai at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2007 05:48 EDT
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