Adesso come detto nei giorni scorsi il cammino dei mercati diventa più difficile da analizzare perchè entrano in ballo altri fattori.
Comunque tendenzialmente lo spazio per un rimbalzo ulteriore c'è sebbene prima potrebbe squezzare un pò di lunghisti.
occorrerà poi capire se il cross dello yen continuerà ad avere l'impatto che ha attualmente sui mercati o con la chiusura delle posizioni speculative la correlazione si ridurrà.
"Regarding the on-going debate surrounding Marc Faber's recent analysis (and I remember not long ago meeting John Mauldin who said he hoped he was a good friend of Dr. Faber, but he still thought that Marc could always find a cloud in a silver lining!), I think the point about retreating confidence leading to a lack of liquidity is still a valid one, as is the fact that rising markets need ever-expanding liquidity (at least as far as I understand it, which probably isn't very far at all!).
"I know you suspect, as do I, that when the next major downturn comes (are we there yet? I am sitting on the sidelines reserving judgement) yet more liquidity will be piled on the market by the central banks. But you are no doubt aware of the various studies that show the diminishing rate of GDP growth resulting from debt (and therefore credit?) expansion. This may mean that at some point in the future (but probably not quite yet) the central banks will discover that there is a lack of rabbits to pull out of hats. I think they are all hoping for Asian and Emerging Market domestic growth to have such a global impact that the rabbit quota will be replaced in some way.
"Like you, I suspect there is another leg in the current bull market still to come, even though it is pretty long-in-the tooth, but obviously there are no guarantees. Charlie Morris from HSBC Global Trend fund was on CNBC this morning, and indicated that he thought, just as the correction last May was pretty straightforward (and, rather like you, I suspect, I did wonder where the second-part of that correction vanished to), he then went on to surmise that this "correction", if that is what it is, will be more convoluted, and longer-lasting, as this process of alternation of market characteristics (simple followed by complex) tended to play out (whether you subscribe to Elliott Wave Theory, or not).
"Worth bearing in mind, I suppose, as we try to digest the recent action!
