Buondi... motta
Japan's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Three Years (Update7)
By Lily Nonomiya
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy expanded 5.5 percent, the fastest pace in three years, as surging exports prompted companies to increase spending on factories and machinery.
Growth in the world's second-largest economy exceeded the government's initial 4.8 percent estimate in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The result was more than the 5.1 percent median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
``Japan's economy is solid and will keep expanding, driven by a solid corporate sector,'' said Takuji Aida, chief economist for Japan at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``The economy is likely to exceed at least its potential growth rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter.''
A jump in exports boosted the current account surplus by a more-than-expected 50 percent in January from a year earlier, a separate report showed today, and consumer confidence rose to a three-month high, signs that the economy will keep expanding. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy, has shown signs of improvement, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said last week.
Japan's growth compares with 2.2 percent annualized growth in the U.S. and the 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion of the 12 nations that share the euro.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.8 percent to 17,292.39. The yen traded at 118.34 against the dollar at 5:15 p.m. in Tokyo from 118.37 before the report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond increased 1 basis point to 1.615 percent.
Interest Rates, Inflation
The Bank of Japan doubled its benchmark overnight lending rate on Feb. 21 to 0.5 percent, its second rate increase in almost six years. Governor Toshihiko Fukui has said the central bank needs to gradually raise borrowing costs as the economy expands and prices rise.
Producer prices last month advanced at the slowest pace in 1 1/2 years as oil costs fell, a separate report showed today, adding to evidence there is little risk of inflation.
The measure for gross domestic product increased after a report last week showed corporate spending surged 16.8 percent, the fastest pace in at least four years. The release accounts for about 60 percent of the capital spending component of GDP.
Capital spending rose 3.1 percent, up from the 2.2 percent preliminary estimate and higher than the 2.8 percent expected by economists, today's figures showed. Inventories shaved 0.1 percent from growth, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.
Company Spending
Tokyo Electron Ltd. said last week it plans to spend 30 billion yen to build a new chip-making factory, its first in a decade. Canon Inc., Japan's most profitable electronics and office equipment maker, plans to increase spending this year by a quarter to 480 billion yen.
The nation's companies are upgrading machinery as the economy emerges from more than a decade of stagnation that followed the bursting of the 1980s bubble economy, and which left companies burdened with debt and too much production capacity.
Japan's current account surplus in January widened 50 percent to 1.19 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) from a year earlier as exports increased, a separate report showed today.
Exports in January climbed 18.2 percent, the fastest pace in eight months, led by sales of automobiles, electronics and steel, the finance ministry said.
`Very Focused'
Upbeat reports on household spending and exports since the beginning of the year have helped validate the Bank of Japan's February rate increase. The bank wants to raise borrowing costs, the lowest among major economies, to a level that more reflects the strength of the economy, or about 2 percent according to economists.
``The Bank of Japan is very focused on normalizing interest rates right now,'' said Aida. ``Very strong economic data could sway them to move before'' the July Upper House elections.
Consumer spending increased 1 percent, less than the government's initial 1.1 percent forecast. Spending will probably keep growing this quarter, said Yoshiki Shinke, an economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
The economy watchers index, a gauge of sentiment of shopkeepers at the frontlines of the economy, rose to a four- month high in February.
Consumer Spending
``We are seeing some improvement,'' in consumer spending, Ota, the economy minister, said last week. ``However, wages still aren't rising so we will need to keep an eye on that.''
Wages fell 1.4 percent in January, the biggest slide in almost three years.
An inflation rate that threatens to turn negative is another obstacle to a rate increase. Producer prices climbed 1.8 in February, down from 2.2 percent in January, as oil costs fell.
``Consumer prices are expected to fall in February and will be very weak,'' Dai-Ichi's Shinke said. ``Even though the Bank of Japan has said the CPI is not the only thing they look at, raising rates at a time when inflation is negative is too high a hurdle for any central bank to clear.''
Nominal growth, which doesn't take price changes into account, grew at an annual 5.6 percent pace, faster than expansion in real terms and beating the government's initial estimate of 5 percent annual growth.
The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.5 percent from the same quarter a year ago, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at
lnonomiya@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 12, 2007 04:19 EDT