Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
pazzesco come sta rimbalzando lo spoore va più veloce del minind che però sottoperforma il nasdaq 
io se accelerano preparo gli shortoni area 817,5-820 minirussell 1514-15 miniS&p500
evidentemente vogliono creare ansia a chi deve entrare per forza
raccattato un t-bonds sulla figura e mezza per barbonaggio
io se accelerano preparo gli shortoni area 817,5-820 minirussell 1514-15 miniS&p500
evidentemente vogliono creare ansia a chi deve entrare per forza
raccattato un t-bonds sulla figura e mezza per barbonaggio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
orca zozza ha fatto 1510 e ora si è fatto 17 punti in giù 
per fortuna abbiamo raccolto qualcosa sul t-bronx 
per fortuna abbiamo raccolto qualcosa sul t-bronx 
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Inshar ha scritto:claro
l'oil però mi sembra vada giù
come si combina con questa nuova violenta salita degli indici?
certo, potrebbe anche essere una fiammata prima di un nuovo affondo, mi ricordo di un bell'articolo (non so trovarlo ora) postato su questo forum dove c'erano delle interessanti analogie con le crisi del 1998 ed altre: ad un meno3 seguiva qualche gorno di + 2, poi nuovo affondo, e poi di nuovo + 2 e poi affondo finale
vi ricordate di questo post per caso?
cara Inshar 
l'oil come detto in precedente post sta entrando in una stagionalità non particolarmente positiva per cui in questo periodo dell'anno tende ad essere debole. I dati economici non sono stati particolarmente positivi e questo a contribuito ad una certa debolezza dell'oil.I dati però delle imprese sono stati positivi ed i carry (basta vedere l'andamento dello yen)molto forti e questo ha permesso ai mercati di andare su anche con dati economici non particolarmente esaltanti.
E' mesi che scrivo di queste relazioni ed il fatto che tu abbia fatto notare l'elemento per così dire non perfettamente coerente della mia analisi è abbastanza fastidioso.
Cosa è che ti infastidisce?
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
continua il drenaggio?
Bank of Korea Unexpectedly Raises Key Rate to 5% (Update3)
By Kim Kyoungwha
Lee Seong Tae, governor of the Bank of Korea Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate for a second time in as many months to curb lending that may fuel asset-price bubbles.
Governor Lee Seong Tae and his board increased the overnight call rate by a quarter point to 5 percent, the highest since July 2001, the central bank said in Seoul today. None of the 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move.
Finance Minister Kwon Okyu said the decision was ``appropriate.'' He and Lee want to avoid a repeat of a debt bubble that burst in 2004 and stunted economic growth. Lending to households rose at the fastest pace in five months in July.
``The tipping point is likely to have been the explosion in household borrowing over July,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The crippling debt overhang of 2001-03 remains clear in the mind of the central bank.''
In 2004, borrowers who had used credit cards to amass debt defaulted in record numbers, slowing the economy's expansion.
The yield on the benchmark five-year government bond surged 10 basis points to 5.43 percent as of 1:50 p.m. in Seoul, the biggest jump since October 2005. The won rose 0.2 percent to 922.32 per dollar. The Kospi stock index pared gains to 0.3 percent after rising as much as 1.3 percent before the decision.
Economists had expected the bank to keep rates on hold to assess the effect of the July increase and monitor whether a U.S. subprime mortgage slump will affect global growth. Today's move was the bank's first-ever back-to-back rate increase.
Urgent Task
``Concerns over soaring money growth outweighed U.S. sub- prime woes,'' said Kim Jae Eun, an economist at SK Securities Co. in Seoul. ``The most urgent task for the Bank of Korea is to put a lid on rising money growth and ensure fast growth won't cause asset-price bubbles and inflation.''
The Bank of Korea also raised the rate on so-called aggregate loans, which are offered to local banks to spur lending to smaller firms, to 3.25 percent from 3 percent.
``With a series of accumulated rate hikes, the degree of monetary easing that was supportive of the economic recovery has lessened considerably,'' Governor Lee told reporters in Seoul.
Lending by commercial banks to households surged 1.77 trillion won ($1.9 billion) in July from June, the central bank said yesterday. Loans to small and mid-sized businesses rose 3.1 trillion won, slowing from June's 8.1 trillion won gain, which was the biggest increase since December 2000.
Further Moves
``Given the hawkish tone of the central bank, a further tightening move before year-end cannot be ruled out,'' said Frederic Neumann, an economist with HSBC Markets Ltd. in Singapore. ``However, this will become dependent on trends in credit and liquidity growth over the next few months.''
Neumann maintained his prediction that lending and money supply will slow in response to credit-tightening measures and the key rate will stay at 5 percent for the rest of the year.
Central banks globally are battling to curb inflation as booming world economic growth forces up food and commodity prices. Australia raised its key rate to an 11-year high of 6.5 percent yesterday, and England, Canada and New Zealand all increased borrowing costs in the past month. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week he may raise his benchmark rate from 4 percent next month.
South Korea's consumer-price inflation advanced 0.4 percent in July from June, when it was unchanged. The annual inflation rate remained at 2.5 percent. Consumer prices will climb 2.6 percent in the second half of 2007, accelerating from 2.2 percent in the first half, the central bank said last month.
Economic Revival
Growing signs of economic revival strengthened the case for a rate increase.
Consumer confidence climbed to the highest in 16 months in July, the National Statistical Office said today, signaling shoppers may help to sustain the economy's longest expansion in a decade. Consumer spending is showing a mild recovery, the central bank said today.
The economy expanded 1.7 percent in the three months to June 30, the quickest rate in 18 months. Exports gained 20 percent in July, while in June, service companies expanded at the quickest rate in almost five years and industrial production climbed for a third month.
``The Bank of Korea might think that hiking rates sooner than expected gives them room for a rainy day in the future,'' said Kwon Young Sun, an economist with Lehman Brothers Inc. in Hong Kong. ``Without any significant upside risks to growth, the bank should stay on hold for the rest of the year.''
Today's rate increase came even as South Korea's currency, the won, has strengthened. The won has surged to a 10-year high against the yen, the currency of its major export competitor.
Governor Lee said today that the won's strength will have little effect on easing inflationary pressure. Finance Minister Kwon said last week that the yen's weakness isn't justified. Borrowing in yen to buy higher-yielding assets -- the so-called carry trade -- threatens to destabilize global markets, he said.
The central bank last week introduced measures to restrict companies from borrowing in foreign currencies as it seeks to reduce the won's gains.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Seoul at kkim19@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 9, 2007 01:07 EDT
Bank of Korea Unexpectedly Raises Key Rate to 5% (Update3)
By Kim Kyoungwha
Lee Seong Tae, governor of the Bank of Korea Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate for a second time in as many months to curb lending that may fuel asset-price bubbles.
Governor Lee Seong Tae and his board increased the overnight call rate by a quarter point to 5 percent, the highest since July 2001, the central bank said in Seoul today. None of the 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move.
Finance Minister Kwon Okyu said the decision was ``appropriate.'' He and Lee want to avoid a repeat of a debt bubble that burst in 2004 and stunted economic growth. Lending to households rose at the fastest pace in five months in July.
``The tipping point is likely to have been the explosion in household borrowing over July,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The crippling debt overhang of 2001-03 remains clear in the mind of the central bank.''
In 2004, borrowers who had used credit cards to amass debt defaulted in record numbers, slowing the economy's expansion.
The yield on the benchmark five-year government bond surged 10 basis points to 5.43 percent as of 1:50 p.m. in Seoul, the biggest jump since October 2005. The won rose 0.2 percent to 922.32 per dollar. The Kospi stock index pared gains to 0.3 percent after rising as much as 1.3 percent before the decision.
Economists had expected the bank to keep rates on hold to assess the effect of the July increase and monitor whether a U.S. subprime mortgage slump will affect global growth. Today's move was the bank's first-ever back-to-back rate increase.
Urgent Task
``Concerns over soaring money growth outweighed U.S. sub- prime woes,'' said Kim Jae Eun, an economist at SK Securities Co. in Seoul. ``The most urgent task for the Bank of Korea is to put a lid on rising money growth and ensure fast growth won't cause asset-price bubbles and inflation.''
The Bank of Korea also raised the rate on so-called aggregate loans, which are offered to local banks to spur lending to smaller firms, to 3.25 percent from 3 percent.
``With a series of accumulated rate hikes, the degree of monetary easing that was supportive of the economic recovery has lessened considerably,'' Governor Lee told reporters in Seoul.
Lending by commercial banks to households surged 1.77 trillion won ($1.9 billion) in July from June, the central bank said yesterday. Loans to small and mid-sized businesses rose 3.1 trillion won, slowing from June's 8.1 trillion won gain, which was the biggest increase since December 2000.
Further Moves
``Given the hawkish tone of the central bank, a further tightening move before year-end cannot be ruled out,'' said Frederic Neumann, an economist with HSBC Markets Ltd. in Singapore. ``However, this will become dependent on trends in credit and liquidity growth over the next few months.''
Neumann maintained his prediction that lending and money supply will slow in response to credit-tightening measures and the key rate will stay at 5 percent for the rest of the year.
Central banks globally are battling to curb inflation as booming world economic growth forces up food and commodity prices. Australia raised its key rate to an 11-year high of 6.5 percent yesterday, and England, Canada and New Zealand all increased borrowing costs in the past month. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week he may raise his benchmark rate from 4 percent next month.
South Korea's consumer-price inflation advanced 0.4 percent in July from June, when it was unchanged. The annual inflation rate remained at 2.5 percent. Consumer prices will climb 2.6 percent in the second half of 2007, accelerating from 2.2 percent in the first half, the central bank said last month.
Economic Revival
Growing signs of economic revival strengthened the case for a rate increase.
Consumer confidence climbed to the highest in 16 months in July, the National Statistical Office said today, signaling shoppers may help to sustain the economy's longest expansion in a decade. Consumer spending is showing a mild recovery, the central bank said today.
The economy expanded 1.7 percent in the three months to June 30, the quickest rate in 18 months. Exports gained 20 percent in July, while in June, service companies expanded at the quickest rate in almost five years and industrial production climbed for a third month.
``The Bank of Korea might think that hiking rates sooner than expected gives them room for a rainy day in the future,'' said Kwon Young Sun, an economist with Lehman Brothers Inc. in Hong Kong. ``Without any significant upside risks to growth, the bank should stay on hold for the rest of the year.''
Today's rate increase came even as South Korea's currency, the won, has strengthened. The won has surged to a 10-year high against the yen, the currency of its major export competitor.
Governor Lee said today that the won's strength will have little effect on easing inflationary pressure. Finance Minister Kwon said last week that the yen's weakness isn't justified. Borrowing in yen to buy higher-yielding assets -- the so-called carry trade -- threatens to destabilize global markets, he said.
The central bank last week introduced measures to restrict companies from borrowing in foreign currencies as it seeks to reduce the won's gains.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Seoul at kkim19@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 9, 2007 01:07 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Bank of England Signals Another Rate Increase Needed (Update4)
By Brian Swint
Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England. Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England indicated it will have to raise the benchmark interest rate once more as record oil costs and rising food prices keep inflation above its target for the next two years.
The inflation rate will stay above the 2 percent goal until 2009, the central bank said in its quarterly inflation report today. The forecasts assume policy makers will raise the Bank Rate a quarter-point from the current 5.75 percent by the first quarter of next year.
The pound rose as investors increased bets that the central bank will raise the key rate beyond 6 percent in 2008. Inflation, which has exceeded the target for 14 months, may hold above the goal as the British economy grows this year at the fastest pace since 2004.
``Indicators of pricing and capacity pressures remain particularly important,'' Governor Mervyn King said at a press conference in London. ``If they do not fall back, that would be consistent with the upside risks to inflation crystallizing.''
The pound, which climbed to a 26-year high of $2.0654 on July 24, rose to $2.0389 at 2:50 p.m. in London.
King and policy makers around the world are keeping their focus on inflation even after a financial-market rout sparked by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis prompted some economists to speculate they would take steps to safeguard growth.
`Predominant Risk'
The Fed, which yesterday kept its benchmark at 5.25 percent, said inflation is ``the predominant risk'' facing the economy, rebuffing calls for a more balanced take that may have presaged a rate cut. Australia's bank today raised its benchmark to an 11- year high of 6.25 percent and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Aug. 2 signaled the ECB would raise its main rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent next month.
The U.K. benchmark is the highest among the Group of Seven countries. The rate is 4.5 percent in Canada and 0.5 percent in Japan.
The Bank of England has lifted borrowing costs five times in the past year, and interest rate futures suggest the Bank Rate may rise to 6 percent by 2008. The implied rate on the December contract rose 0.07 percentage point today to 6.23 percent, while the March contract was at 6.25 percent, as of 2:50 p.m.
The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank benchmark for the past decade.
Growth Forecast
``The bank appears to be leaving the door at least slightly ajar as regards another two rate hikes from here,'' said Richard McGuire, an economist at RBC Capital Markets.
The bank said its projection for economic growth was ``somewhat weaker'' than in May, when it forecast gross domestic product to expand an annual 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Charts published today suggest that growth may touch about 2.5 percent. The expansion will be slower than it previously estimated because of the rate increases, the forecasts show.
Britain's economy grew 3 percent from a year ago in both of the first two quarters of this year, stronger than most economists had forecast. In May, the bank expected growth to average 3 percent in 2008 and 2.8 percent in 2009.
``We are not convinced that a further increase in rates is necessary, as such a move would cause damage,' said David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, a business lobby group.
Risks `Diminished'
While ``upside risks'' to inflation have ``diminished somewhat,'' the bank pushed back by about a year the date when inflation will drop below the 2 percent target.
``The scope for further upwards pressure on commodity prices, the limited margin of spare capacity and the continued elevation of some measures of inflation expectations and pricing intentions mean that the balance of risks'' to inflation ``is judged to be slightly on the upside,'' the central bank said.
The Bank of England is weighing the risks to inflation as gains in commodity costs and faster domestic economic growth push prices higher. At the same time, turmoil in global credit markets has increased the cost of borrowing for companies while consumers are shouldering record debts.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest monthly decline in three years in July and in the U.K., the benchmark FTSE 100 index has fallen 4.5 percent since July 16.
If the bank declines to move the key rate to 6 percent, inflation is unlikely to return to target, the forecasts show. The bank releases minutes of the Aug. 2 meeting in a week.
Inflation slowed to 2.4 percent in June, down from a decade high of 3.1 percent in March, the government said July 17.
Crude oil prices rose to a record $78.77 a barrel on Aug. 1. An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in English cattle may also drive up food prices in the next few months, adding to inflation pressures, economists at BNP Paribas in London said yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 8, 2007 10:43 EDT
By Brian Swint
Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England. Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England indicated it will have to raise the benchmark interest rate once more as record oil costs and rising food prices keep inflation above its target for the next two years.
The inflation rate will stay above the 2 percent goal until 2009, the central bank said in its quarterly inflation report today. The forecasts assume policy makers will raise the Bank Rate a quarter-point from the current 5.75 percent by the first quarter of next year.
The pound rose as investors increased bets that the central bank will raise the key rate beyond 6 percent in 2008. Inflation, which has exceeded the target for 14 months, may hold above the goal as the British economy grows this year at the fastest pace since 2004.
``Indicators of pricing and capacity pressures remain particularly important,'' Governor Mervyn King said at a press conference in London. ``If they do not fall back, that would be consistent with the upside risks to inflation crystallizing.''
The pound, which climbed to a 26-year high of $2.0654 on July 24, rose to $2.0389 at 2:50 p.m. in London.
King and policy makers around the world are keeping their focus on inflation even after a financial-market rout sparked by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis prompted some economists to speculate they would take steps to safeguard growth.
`Predominant Risk'
The Fed, which yesterday kept its benchmark at 5.25 percent, said inflation is ``the predominant risk'' facing the economy, rebuffing calls for a more balanced take that may have presaged a rate cut. Australia's bank today raised its benchmark to an 11- year high of 6.25 percent and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Aug. 2 signaled the ECB would raise its main rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent next month.
The U.K. benchmark is the highest among the Group of Seven countries. The rate is 4.5 percent in Canada and 0.5 percent in Japan.
The Bank of England has lifted borrowing costs five times in the past year, and interest rate futures suggest the Bank Rate may rise to 6 percent by 2008. The implied rate on the December contract rose 0.07 percentage point today to 6.23 percent, while the March contract was at 6.25 percent, as of 2:50 p.m.
The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank benchmark for the past decade.
Growth Forecast
``The bank appears to be leaving the door at least slightly ajar as regards another two rate hikes from here,'' said Richard McGuire, an economist at RBC Capital Markets.
The bank said its projection for economic growth was ``somewhat weaker'' than in May, when it forecast gross domestic product to expand an annual 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Charts published today suggest that growth may touch about 2.5 percent. The expansion will be slower than it previously estimated because of the rate increases, the forecasts show.
Britain's economy grew 3 percent from a year ago in both of the first two quarters of this year, stronger than most economists had forecast. In May, the bank expected growth to average 3 percent in 2008 and 2.8 percent in 2009.
``We are not convinced that a further increase in rates is necessary, as such a move would cause damage,' said David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, a business lobby group.
Risks `Diminished'
While ``upside risks'' to inflation have ``diminished somewhat,'' the bank pushed back by about a year the date when inflation will drop below the 2 percent target.
``The scope for further upwards pressure on commodity prices, the limited margin of spare capacity and the continued elevation of some measures of inflation expectations and pricing intentions mean that the balance of risks'' to inflation ``is judged to be slightly on the upside,'' the central bank said.
The Bank of England is weighing the risks to inflation as gains in commodity costs and faster domestic economic growth push prices higher. At the same time, turmoil in global credit markets has increased the cost of borrowing for companies while consumers are shouldering record debts.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest monthly decline in three years in July and in the U.K., the benchmark FTSE 100 index has fallen 4.5 percent since July 16.
If the bank declines to move the key rate to 6 percent, inflation is unlikely to return to target, the forecasts show. The bank releases minutes of the Aug. 2 meeting in a week.
Inflation slowed to 2.4 percent in June, down from a decade high of 3.1 percent in March, the government said July 17.
Crude oil prices rose to a record $78.77 a barrel on Aug. 1. An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in English cattle may also drive up food prices in the next few months, adding to inflation pressures, economists at BNP Paribas in London said yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 8, 2007 10:43 EDT
masgui
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
I dati però delle imprese sono stati positivi ed i carry (basta vedere l'andamento dello yen)molto forti e questo ha permesso ai mercati di andare su anche con dati economici non particolarmente esaltanti.
E' mesi che scrivo di queste relazioni ed il fatto che tu abbia fatto notare l'elemento per così dire non perfettamente coerente della mia analisi è abbastanza fastidioso.
Cosa è che ti infastidisce?
ci stai provando?......
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