Bund TBond e la spremitura delle olive degli shortEuro VM77 (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione f4f
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The chart below shows the y/y inflation rates in three of the German states reporting this morning: North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, and Brandenburg. As you can see, there's been a sharp deceleration from recent peaks in all 3 states; indeed, NR-W's rate is almost back to the ECB target!
dan24
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
ottimo...inflazione in discesa...Ifo negativo...outlook di primavera in rallentamento in area euro...voglio vedere cosa si inventa il mio amiko trikeco nobrain re-tard sukkia ca-zzi a tradimento per non tagliare i tassi...
aaa lo so so cosa manca..un bel krack di doucht bank
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:ottimo...inflazione in discesa...Ifo negativo...outlook di primavera in rallentamento in area euro...voglio vedere cosa si inventa il mio amiko trikeco nobrain re-tard sukkia ca-zzi a tradimento per non tagliare i tassi...
aaa lo so so cosa manca..un bel krack di doucht bank
Does Deutsche want a non-desperate capital boost?Monday used to mean mergers. Now it seems to mean “capital raising”.
While Hbos looked poised to become the next UK bank to tap investors for cash, Germany’s banks were also in the spotlight.
A report over the weekend in Der Spiegel posited that Deutsche Bank would ask its shareholders to approve plans to raise €17bn. The paper’s look at an AGM agenda suggests that Deutsche will be seeking permission to issue new shares worth €4bn, in addition to a €4bn share sale approved two years ago.
Another €9bn could be raised through issuing participation rights and bonds, it said.
But this is not another beleaguered bank looking to bolster its ailing balance sheet. Well not entirely.
Deutsche may be about to post its first quarterly loss in five years, say Bloomberg, with a €2.5bn writedown already flagged. But that looks rather well-contained as losses at other European banks escalate.
Deutsche has been actively selling off its book of stuck leveraged loans, with two circa-€5bn sales as the corporate credit market improved.
The bank also, apparently, got a full price for its loans by offering private equity buyers low-cost financing for the deals. The structure of the sales was designed so that Deutsche could avoid booking losses on the loans, and would be protected from further falls in value.
So what’s the new slab of capital needed for then? Deutsche Bank has got its eye on acquisitions. Last week, the bank expressed an interest in picking up parts of Citi’s European business, were they to come up for sale as part of the US bank’s review.
This week, Deutsche is apparently intent on putting its position as a credit crunch survivor to good use in consolidating in Europe. Reuters at the weekend quoted Juergen Fitschen, head of German retail banking at Deutsche, saying he would favour deals among Germany’s four big commercials banks to form two larger groups that could better compete internationally.
So it’s mix and match between Deutsche, Allianz’s Dresdner, Commerzbank and Deutsche Postbank. The former pair were in the frame as the buyers in this hypothetical German realignment.
Some faint prospect then of a return to the old meaning of Monday: deals, not desperate measures.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
How Tuesday’s FOMC Meeting Will Impact U.S. Dollar
by Jack Crooks
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday’s interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
Today, we’ll explore the Fed Funds rate argument from the perspective of both dollar pessimists and enthusiasts, giving each camp equal due.
In light of the fact that the University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index just plunged to a 26-year low, let’s give the gloomers and doomers their say first ...
Dollar pessimists believe there is STILL no positive argument in favor of the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — maintaining economic growth and price stability — has become quite a flash point in currency circles. Much of the dollar’s demise has been attributed to the Fed’s obligation to buoy growth even when inflation isn’t necessarily contained.
And keeping the U.S. economy above water hasn’t been an easy task for them. I’ve consistently checked-off a myriad of soft spots that are catching up with the economy and infecting the core.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to face intense scrutiny ahead of Tuesday’s FOMC meeting.
Among them are...
An unstable manufacturing sector;
Deteriorating business conditions;
Sluggish consumer spending;
Serious slack in the labor market; and
A widespread feeling that money isn’t so easy to come by anymore.
And almost certainly, all of the aforementioned troubles have been initiated or exacerbated by the ongoing U.S. housing market collapse.
I’m not going to drag you though all of the painful details right now because, for all I know, you’re getting bored with every new housing-related disappointment you hear about.
Suffice it to say, the impact of the housing debacle on U.S. consumers has been swift, sudden, and severe. This in turn has, and will persist in creating major headaches for the financial sector. American Express told analysts yesterday that financially stressed consumers are making fewer payments less often.
As a result, dollar pessimists believe the U.S. economy will continue to falter, giving the Federal Reserve no choice BUT to cut interest rates even further.
I have to admit; they do have a point. After all, the FOMC has sliced an unprecedented 300 basis points off the Fed Funds rate since their September monetary policy meeting.
On the other hand ...
Dollar optimists believe intense commodity inflation will FORCE an adjustment to Fed policy.
The Fed’s dual mandate has left them somewhat handcuffed to a sinking economy. But at least they sometimes recognize that inflation risks exist. But the fear of inflation and inflation are two different animals. The Fed has the fun job of keeping both beasts under control.
Can you imagine what’s going through their heads right now? Crude oil topped $119 a barrel this week. But beyond the heavily monitored energy prices, food has stepped right up into the media spotlight.
Dollar enthusiasts are betting that soaring commodity inflation will ultimately force the FOMC to revaluate its monetary policy.
Riots have broken out in Haiti because of food shortages. A handful of countries that include China and India have pulled back on their rice exports in order to sufficiently meet domestic demand. And we even learned this week that two popular U.S. wholesalers (Sam’s Club and Costco) are monitoring the amount of bulk rice purchases they allow customers to make.
Dollar optimists believe that runaway inflation on commodities will ultimately warrant some kind of adjustment to Fed policy. Consequently, this would be good news for the greenback.
Why? Few analysts will argue that the Federal Reserve needs to hike interest rates. But the possibility that the fed may halt its easing campaign is growing among analysts.
And perhaps that’s JUST what the doctor ordered.
A monetary policy revaluation could spark a legitimate dollar rally!
If Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Co. were to carve out a bottom-turn in their easing campaign, it just might give buyers enough reason to come out in support of the dollar.
And a legitimate dollar rally would likely impact commodities, considering the extreme negative correlation that’s existed between the two parties.
Fed Watch: Given the way things stand, I’d say ...
If you’re looking for some currency specific advice heading into Tuesday’s FOMC meeting, have a look at the following chart of the U.S. dollar index. It may offer up some guidance
by Jack Crooks
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday’s interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
Today, we’ll explore the Fed Funds rate argument from the perspective of both dollar pessimists and enthusiasts, giving each camp equal due.
In light of the fact that the University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index just plunged to a 26-year low, let’s give the gloomers and doomers their say first ...
Dollar pessimists believe there is STILL no positive argument in favor of the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — maintaining economic growth and price stability — has become quite a flash point in currency circles. Much of the dollar’s demise has been attributed to the Fed’s obligation to buoy growth even when inflation isn’t necessarily contained.
And keeping the U.S. economy above water hasn’t been an easy task for them. I’ve consistently checked-off a myriad of soft spots that are catching up with the economy and infecting the core.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to face intense scrutiny ahead of Tuesday’s FOMC meeting.
Among them are...
An unstable manufacturing sector;
Deteriorating business conditions;
Sluggish consumer spending;
Serious slack in the labor market; and
A widespread feeling that money isn’t so easy to come by anymore.
And almost certainly, all of the aforementioned troubles have been initiated or exacerbated by the ongoing U.S. housing market collapse.
I’m not going to drag you though all of the painful details right now because, for all I know, you’re getting bored with every new housing-related disappointment you hear about.
Suffice it to say, the impact of the housing debacle on U.S. consumers has been swift, sudden, and severe. This in turn has, and will persist in creating major headaches for the financial sector. American Express told analysts yesterday that financially stressed consumers are making fewer payments less often.
As a result, dollar pessimists believe the U.S. economy will continue to falter, giving the Federal Reserve no choice BUT to cut interest rates even further.
I have to admit; they do have a point. After all, the FOMC has sliced an unprecedented 300 basis points off the Fed Funds rate since their September monetary policy meeting.
On the other hand ...
Dollar optimists believe intense commodity inflation will FORCE an adjustment to Fed policy.
The Fed’s dual mandate has left them somewhat handcuffed to a sinking economy. But at least they sometimes recognize that inflation risks exist. But the fear of inflation and inflation are two different animals. The Fed has the fun job of keeping both beasts under control.
Can you imagine what’s going through their heads right now? Crude oil topped $119 a barrel this week. But beyond the heavily monitored energy prices, food has stepped right up into the media spotlight.
Dollar enthusiasts are betting that soaring commodity inflation will ultimately force the FOMC to revaluate its monetary policy.
Riots have broken out in Haiti because of food shortages. A handful of countries that include China and India have pulled back on their rice exports in order to sufficiently meet domestic demand. And we even learned this week that two popular U.S. wholesalers (Sam’s Club and Costco) are monitoring the amount of bulk rice purchases they allow customers to make.
Dollar optimists believe that runaway inflation on commodities will ultimately warrant some kind of adjustment to Fed policy. Consequently, this would be good news for the greenback.
Why? Few analysts will argue that the Federal Reserve needs to hike interest rates. But the possibility that the fed may halt its easing campaign is growing among analysts.
And perhaps that’s JUST what the doctor ordered.
A monetary policy revaluation could spark a legitimate dollar rally!
If Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Co. were to carve out a bottom-turn in their easing campaign, it just might give buyers enough reason to come out in support of the dollar.
And a legitimate dollar rally would likely impact commodities, considering the extreme negative correlation that’s existed between the two parties.
Fed Watch: Given the way things stand, I’d say ...
If you’re looking for some currency specific advice heading into Tuesday’s FOMC meeting, have a look at the following chart of the U.S. dollar index. It may offer up some guidance