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Corn, Soybeans May Rise as El Nino Fades, Raising Crop Concern
By Jeff Wilson
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybean prices in Chicago may rise on forecasts for a shift in the El Nino weather pattern that will damage crops this year in the U.S., the world's largest producer.
Twenty of 25 traders, farm advisers and grain merchants surveyed Feb. 9 said to buy corn after prices rose 1.1 percent last week, the first gain in three weeks. Seventeen respondents said to buy soybeans, which rose 1.7 percent after reaching the highest price since June 2005.
Rapid cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters since December will help create above-normal rains that may increase planting delays into May, said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. Dryness during the growing season from June to August may damage shallow-rooted crops, he said. Corn already has reached a 10-year high on record demand for ethanol.
``Spring planting delays because of wet weather may push U.S. crop reproduction into the drier and warmer weeks of summer, possibly hurting production,'' Lerner said from Kansas City, Kansas, after releasing his long-term forecast Feb. 9. ``The intensity of the potential Midwest dryness will come into better focus in the next six weeks.''
Corn futures for March delivery rose 4.25 cents to $4.0625 a bushel last week on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices surged a record 81 percent last year, and on Jan. 17 reached $4.205, the highest since July 1996.
Soybeans
Soybean futures for March delivery rose 12.5 cents to $7.4925 a bushel in Chicago last week, after gaining Feb. 9 to $7.57, the highest since June 27, 2005. Prices increased 3.2 percent in January and 27 percent last year on speculation that higher returns from growing corn would cut soybean plantings.
Most respondents surveyed Feb. 2 correctly predicted last week's gains. The corn survey has been accurate 55 percent of the time since it began April 26, 2004. The soybean survey, which started six weeks later, has been correct 55 percent.
Global corn inventories will drop to the lowest since 1978, even after the U.S. harvested its third-largest crop ever last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Feb. 9. World demand will reach a record 729 million tons, exceeding output for the sixth time in seven years. Five of those years generated record world crops.
The U.S. produced 10.535 billion bushels of corn last year, down from 11.112 billion after farmers planted 3.9 percent fewer acres and a drought damaged fields. U.S. inventories of corn on Aug. 31, before the next harvest, probably will fall to an 11- year low of 752 million bushels.
Cooling Pacific
When equatorial waters in the Pacific cool quickly and El Nino fades, the emerging weather pattern often is a so-called La Nina, increasing the chances for warm, dry weather and reduced U.S. crop production, Lerner said.
The decay in El Nino to a neutral or La Nina pattern occurred four times since 1980, and corn yields fell in each of those years, said Roy Huckabay, executive vice president for the Linn Group in Chicago. Corn yields dropped 19 percent in 1980, 32 percent in 1983, 35 percent in 1988 and 25 percent in 1995.
``This market will rally sharply on any threat to yields and could get real extreme on actual losses,'' Huckabay said. ``These weather forecasts are creating a concern about reduced production at a time when more bushels are needed'' to supply the growth in demand from ethanol makers and livestock producers, Huckabay said.
No More Land
Prices also may rise after U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Feb. 7 that no land set aside in government conservation programs will be used for planting corn, soybeans and other crops until 2008.
About 37 million acres are enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program, which allows farmers to idle land in return for a government payment. Land in the program is administered under 10-year contracts. The USDA is considering whether to release farmers from contracts without penalty in order to put more land into crop production.
Export Demand
Corn and soybeans also may rise on signs of improving overseas demand for U.S. supplies.
Corn exporters sold 917,300 metric tons for the week ended Feb. 1, up 15 percent from the prior week, the USDA said Feb. 8. Orders for U.S. corn from overseas buyers have risen 23 percent to 35.674 million metric tons for the year ending Aug. 31 from 28.973 million at the same time last year.
Soybean sales rose 19 percent to 803,200 tons in the week ended Feb. 1 from a week earlier. Export orders in the marketing year that ends Aug. 31 are up 30 percent at 23.701 million tons, USDA said. Sales to China, the biggest global buyer, have risen 34 percent to 9.814 million tons.
``These prices are still very reasonable,'' said John Welsh, senior vice president at Peregrine Financial Group Inc. in Chicago. ``There is real demand for these products, not just speculation.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at [email protected]
Last Updated: February 11, 2007 19:00 EST
gulp!
e io che l'ho shortati entrambi? 
( na miseria ) la soddisfazione più grande è quella di avere tenuto e aspettato (di solito dopo due ore io faccio casini) 
